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Will Professor Lichtman be correct again in 2024?

C

cosmickid

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Oct 23, 2009
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As he makes clear in this video, Prof Lichtman is not yet ready to make a prediciton between Trump/Biden. I know he's been mentioned once or twice and people may have a general idea how he uses his keys to predict Preesidential elections. But this video session goes into great detail about how his keys came to be and exactly what he evaluates...

This video is a little long, and won't be for everyone. I personally found it extemely enlightening. And spolier alert I didn't know the other guy was his son until at least half way thru. But because of that relationship the video has a lot more personal insight and imho he opens up a lot more than with other hosts I have seen him appear with. I also liked the color code chart that they use to illustrate exactly where each of the 13 keys stands presently...

It doesn't seem like any personal bias or preference enters in. Just an objective application he's used every election since Reagan's re-election in '84 and how he measures each key.

 
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cosmickid said:
As he makes clear in this video, Prof Lichtman is not yet ready to make a prediciton between Trump/Biden. I know he's been mentioned once or twice and people may have a general idea how he uses his keys to predict Preesidential elections. But this video session goes into great detail about how his keys came to be and exactly what he evaluates...

This video is a little long, and won't be for everyone. I personally found it extemely enlightening. And spolier alert I didn't know the other guy was his son until at least half way thru. But because of that relationship the video has a lot more personal insight and imho he opens up a lot more than with other hosts I have seen him appear with. I also liked the color code chart that they use to illustrate exactly where each of the 13 keys stands presently...

It doesn't seem like any personal bias or preference enters in. Just an objective application he's used every election since Reagan's re-election in '84 and how he measures each key.

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Forget the polls and the pundits. This guy is the man. He's been wrong only once in 40 years and, even then (Gore/Bush), he wasn't really wrong.

I didn't watch the entire video but my impression is that, while he's not quite ready to make his official prediction, things are looking good for the incumbent.
 
Bowlmania said:
Forget the polls and the pundits. This guy is the man. He's been wrong only once in 40 years and, even then (Gore/Bush), he wasn't really wrong.

I didn't watch the entire video but my impression is that, while he's not quite ready to make his official prediction, things are looking good for the incumbent.
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in your eyes obviously they would be and i hope you remain arrogant. That will make it even sweeter when biden losses.
 
Bowlmania said:
Forget the polls and the pundits. This guy is the man. He's been wrong only once in 40 years and, even then (Gore/Bush), he wasn't really wrong.

I didn't watch the entire video but my impression is that, while he's not quite ready to make his official prediction, things are looking good for the incumbent.
Click to expand...

Allan Lichtman has an amazing prediction record using his 13 key responses by voters as to whether an incumbent will be reelected.

Are Lichtman's method and ability to quantify qualitative data pure genius, or has he just been lucky?

Put me down on the side of just been lucky.
 
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cosmickid said:
As he makes clear in this video, Prof Lichtman is not yet ready to make a prediciton between Trump/Biden. I know he's been mentioned once or twice and people may have a general idea how he uses his keys to predict Preesidential elections. But this video session goes into great detail about how his keys came to be and exactly what he evaluates...

This video is a little long, and won't be for everyone. I personally found it extemely enlightening. And spolier alert I didn't know the other guy was his son until at least half way thru. But because of that relationship the video has a lot more personal insight and imho he opens up a lot more than with other hosts I have seen him appear with. I also liked the color code chart that they use to illustrate exactly where each of the 13 keys stands presently...

It doesn't seem like any personal bias or preference enters in. Just an objective application he's used every election since Reagan's re-election in '84 and how he measures each key.

View embedded media
Click to expand...
I don’t think Lichtman’s keys account for a circumstance where perhaps a majority of voters believes an incumbent president suffers from senile dementia
 
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cosmickid said:
As he makes clear in this video, Prof Lichtman is not yet ready to make a prediciton between Trump/Biden. I know he's been mentioned once or twice and people may have a general idea how he uses his keys to predict Preesidential elections. But this video session goes into great detail about how his keys came to be and exactly what he evaluates...

This video is a little long, and won't be for everyone. I personally found it extemely enlightening. And spolier alert I didn't know the other guy was his son until at least half way thru. But because of that relationship the video has a lot more personal insight and imho he opens up a lot more than with other hosts I have seen him appear with. I also liked the color code chart that they use to illustrate exactly where each of the 13 keys stands presently...

It doesn't seem like any personal bias or preference enters in. Just an objective application he's used every election since Reagan's re-election in '84 and how he measures each key.

View embedded media
Click to expand...
his model had never had a person who had already been president. I guess its possible he is proven right but biden is tanking hard right now and the court cases are basically done. There isnt much biden can do anymore to turn it around honestly.
 
bailey777 said:
his model had never had a person who had already been president. I guess its possible he is proven right but biden is tanking hard right now and the court cases are basically done. There isnt much biden can do anymore to turn it around honestly.
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Of course his model has had candidates who were previously POTUS, since it goes back to 1860. Teddy Roosevelt and Grover Cleveland are both post 1860. You do know your US History, Right?

Maybe you're confused on the concept of "model"? He developed the model based on the 13 keys which he discovered were common to every post 1860 POTUS election. The model was developed in conjunction with a Russian Scientist who was world renowned for being able to predicr earthquakes. Lichtman's personal predictions starting with Reagan in 1984 are based on the model they developed...
 
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Hoopsdoc1978 said:
Lichtman picked Harris to win the presidency.

Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman makes 2024 election pick | FOX 5 DC

Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman, who has called the winner of nearly every presidential election since the 1980s, has announced his final prediction in the 2024 presidential election.
www.fox5dc.com www.fox5dc.com
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This video cuts to the chase, but the one he released thru the NYT does a better job of explaining who he is, and how the keys function. I'll link it in case anyone might be interested...

 
mrhighlife said:
He's been wrong before. It's rare but he has been. I'll be voting for Harris but laying money on Trump.
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BECAUSE HE’S THE GOAT!!!!!! Surprised you’d put money on trump. For me I think that mod Dems think Harris is a woke empty suit but will still pull the trigger for her. Conversely there are a ton of anti trump conservatives who won’t do the same. Winner? Harris. Book it. More interesting to track. Look at Stl City’s odds to make the mls playoffs. They are in second to last place in the league. But guess what. I’m putting money down on them. It’s going to be my Leicester City moment.

McMurtry
Lichtman
 
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mcmurtry66 said:
BECAUSE HE’S THE GOAT!!!!!! Surprised you’d put money on trump. For me I think that mod Dems think Harris is a woke empty suit but will still pull the trigger for her. Conversely there are a ton of anti trump conservatives who won’t do the same. Winner? Harris. Book it. More interesting to track. Look at Stl City’s odds to make the mls playoffs. They are in second to last place in the league. But guess what. I’m putting money down on them. It’s going to be my Leicester City moment.

McMurtry
Lichtman
Click to expand...
Yeah nevermind. Trump is -115 and Harris is -105. If Trump gets back into + money then I will hammer that shit. It's like IU football. I want them to win but...

As for the Red Asses and their geriatric pitching staff, good luck with that. Need to get past the fearsome sCubs first. 😂. My Dodgers are set to win the division again only to blow it in the first round of the playoffs. So I got that going for me.
 
mrhighlife said:
Yeah nevermind. Trump is -115 and Harris is -105. If Trump gets back into + money then I will hammer that shit. It's like IU football. I want them to win but...

As for the Red Asses and their geriatric pitching staff, good luck with that. Need to get past the fearsome sCubs first. 😂. My Dodgers are set to win the division again only to blow it in the first round of the playoffs. So I got that going for me.
Click to expand...
i was talking about our soccer team god damnit. how many gummies have you had today?
 
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mcmurtry66 said:
BECAUSE HE’S THE GOAT!!!!!! Surprised you’d put money on trump. For me I think that mod Dems think Harris is a woke empty suit but will still pull the trigger for her. Conversely there are a ton of anti trump conservatives who won’t do the same. Winner? Harris. Book it. More interesting to track. Look at Stl City’s odds to make the mls playoffs. They are in second to last place in the league. But guess what. I’m putting money down on them. It’s going to be my Leicester City moment.

McMurtry
Lichtman
Click to expand...
It comes down to whom you disillusion. A "woke empty suit" is unattractive to many moderates and conservatives. But Trump is unattractive to many moderates and conservatives and liberals. He just has fewer potential voters than Harris does, and therefore a smaller margin of error.
 
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TheOriginalHappyGoat said:
It comes down to whom you disillusion. A "woke empty suit" is unattractive to many moderates and conservatives. But Trump is unattractive to many moderates and conservatives and liberals. He just has fewer potential voters than Harris does, and therefore a smaller margin of error.
Click to expand...
Yup
 
Bowlmania said:
Forget the polls and the pundits. This guy is the man. He's been wrong only once in 40 years and, even then (Gore/Bush), he wasn't really wrong.

I didn't watch the entire video but my impression is that, while he's not quite ready to make his official prediction, things are looking good for the incumbent.
Click to expand...
He was dead wring dude. Dead wrong.
 
Bowlmania said:
Forget the polls and the pundits. This guy is the man. He's been wrong only once in 40 years and, even then (Gore/Bush), he wasn't really wrong.

I didn't watch the entire video but my impression is that, while he's not quite ready to make his official prediction, things are looking good for the incumbent.
Click to expand...
He wasnt even close. He can throw his keys in the toilet.
 
bailey777 said:
He wasnt even close. He can throw his keys in the toilet.
Click to expand...
He originally said the Dems had no chance if they didn’t run Biden, if I’m not mistaken.

Then he magically changed his mind when Joe dropped out.

Now he says he completely underestimated the impact that the lack of time had on Kamala’s chances.

You can’t make that shit up. 😂
 
Hoopsdoc1978 said:
He originally said the Dems had no chance if they didn’t run Biden, if I’m not mistaken.

Then he magically changed his mind when Joe dropped out.

Now he says he completely underestimated the impact that the lack of time had on Kamala’s chances.

You can’t make that shit up. 😂
Click to expand...

 
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