I'm saying he's down by like 10 nationally but it's a lot closer in the battleground states. I think the latest Quinnipiac poll had OH has a dead heat. There hasn't been a candidate in like 60 years that won OH and didn't win the White House, right? MI is within the margin of error I believe. Trump is definitely not the favorite anymore but he's not out either.
I actually think it's the battleground state polling that is driving the narrative that he's beaten. First of all because of states like TX, GA, and OH that are being included as "battlegrounds" in the first place and then secondly because the best Trump is doing in polling from those states is tied or slightly behind.
I had basically written off OH as a blue or even purple state due to demographic shifts and the state seemingly,along with IA, breaking away from the more Dem states in the midwest. But Trump not only trailing there but spending $$ there (and Iowa as well) can not be considered anything but extremely dangerous for his prospects...
Ohio is a state NO Republican can win the Presidency without (Trump won it by 8%), but Clinton would still have won had she been able to hold MI, PA, and WI. Going into 2020 Trump had to view Ohio as a fait accompli. He won it by 8% in 2016, and while MI, PA, and WI (states he won by under 1 %, all elected Dem Senators and Govs in 2018) Ohio re-elected Brown but put a Pub in the Governor's Mansion. So while Team Trump knew MI, WI and PA were going to be tough, they had to feel Ohio was pretty safe.
Ohio polling showing Biden tied or with a lead is HUGE, as is polling in FL. Losing either of those states basically puts Trump on life support-he just doesn't have viable options to replace them with. Early on they talked of Minnesota and possibly NM, but those are not showing the miracle they were hoping for. I think most analysts consider MI sliding away,as well as PA-when you say the margin of error you may be thinking IA.
Trump has been down double digits in MI since the 2018 midterms and never really cut into that. Biden crushed the MI Primary, and the state added about 230,000 more Dem Primary voters in 2020 than voted for Clinton and Bernie combined in 2016. That added 230,000 votes cast in 2020 is huge for a state Trump only won by 10,000 votes in 2016. That indicates that people who either didn't vote in 2016 or maybe voted for Trump turned out in 2020 to vote for Biden. In the latest NYT poll Trump is not only down 11 pts in MI, but he is at 36%, basically equating to the numbers of people represented by the anti-Wittmer protestors who squawked loudly but were a distinct minority.
The GOP felt that John James might have a shot to unseat freshman Senator Gary Peters in MI, in what is basically their only shot to pick up a seat aside from Jones in AL. But James (who is AA) is down by 10 pts and his campaign is just not resonating with Black voters. The animosity Trump has shown to MI, and Detroit in particular while Blacks suffered disproportionately with regards to COVID is not helping James, although he is trying to distance himself from Trump. The Times analysis paints a grim prospect for Trump in MI, and nearly the same level of danger in both NC and AZ, where he is also dragging down 2 very vulnerable GOP Senators...
"And in an era when Senate races increasingly mirror the presidential preference of a given state, there is little McSally and Tillis may be able to do to overcome Trump’s current drag on their party. The president trails Biden by 7 percentage points in Arizona and nine in North Carolina. Trump is capturing the support of only 41% of Arizona voters and 40% of North Carolinians.
The president’s prospects are even more dire in Michigan, where the poll shows he is losing to Biden by 11 points, capturing just 36% of the vote in a state he narrowly carried four years ago."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-sagging-popularity-drags-down-123058512.html
