Way-Too-Early Election Predictions

Discussion in 'The Water Cooler' started by iuwclurker, Jun 26, 2020.

  1. iuwclurker

    iuwclurker All-Big Ten
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    Just for fun.

    Biden in a landslide, 400+ electoral votes.

    Biden is currently polling ahead in all age groups, most significantly, senior citizens. Covid is hurting him in two blocs especially, the elderly and Latinos, two groups that tend to resist changing their votes. Seniors are by far the most notable because they vote and vote Republican

    Police brutality is also affecting Latino vote as they also get brutalized though that’s not prominent in the Black Lives Matter discussion. Blacks are super-mobilized now.

    Trump’s mis-calculation to quintuple down on his base will backfire. His base has shrunk to Lucies and COH conservatives. He’s losing the vast majority of independents.

    Only thing preventing a landslide now is butthurt bernheads.
     
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  2. Circlejoe

    Circlejoe All-Big Ten
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    Yup. Biden's campaign motto will be "don't screw the pooch". Trump has jumped the shark and he'll take a bunch of GOP members down with him. It will be ugly for the GOP. As Trump explodes, current Republicans running for office will move away from him. That will just piss Trump off more and he'll attack. Watch for Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas to move to Biden. The Senate will go to a Democratic majority as well. The stain will be on the GOP for years to come.
     
  3. StelioKantos

    StelioKantos Junior
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    As long as biden stays in his basement he’ll win, if I was him I’d call in sick for any public appearances including debates
     
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  4. Bowlmania

    Bowlmania Senior
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    A month ago I would have laughed at the idea of a Biden landslide. But with Biden leading or tied in every swing state, and running strong in traditionally red states like Texas and Georgia, this could indeed be a blowout.

    Trump's presidency has been a shitshow, and more eyes are finally being opened to that reality with so many prominent people from his own party (and former key players in his administration) commenting on what a reckless idiot he is.

    "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me."
     
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  5. jsig

    jsig Senior
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    Since my job has not been impacted I donated the money from Trump to Jo.
     
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  6. Ladoga

    Ladoga All-Big Ten
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    "way too early..." is right on the money. At this time during their campaign, Dukakis lead Bush by EDIT- 17 points in one poll - it was Gallup. It is way too early.
     
    6 Ladoga, Jun 26, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2020
  7. Bulk VanderHuge

    Bulk VanderHuge All-Big Ten
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    Thank you for defining the obvious, stated focus of the thread. What would we do without your intellect?
    So, any predictions, buttercup?
    I say Biden in a convincing win, short of a landslide.
     
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  8. UncleMark

    UncleMark Hall of Famer
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    It's possible Trump has dealt himself a death blow yesterday. Yesterday the Solicitor General filed a brief with the Supreme Court to the effect that "Obamacare must fall".

    Obamacare Must 'Fall,' Trump Administration Tells Supreme Court

    https://www.npr.org/2020/06/26/8838...fall-trump-administration-tells-supreme-court

    Imagine this being argued in October, and the Biden campaign highlighting that the administration wants to end the protections on pre-existing conditions, allowing young people to be on their parents plans, and pricing individuals out of the insurance market. If 2018 is any indication, that doesn't bode well for the Pubs.
     
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  9. Sope Creek

    Sope Creek Hall of Famer
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    Well, that strategy works so long as Trump continues to fail.

    Fauci says that Trump - meaning the federal government, for which Trump takes all credit and for which Trump wants to avoid taking any blame - is now considering implementing "pool" testing, where groups of 20 or so folks are "tested" for Covid-19 by testing one in the group, and if the test is negative the testers move on to the next group/pool on the assumption that if the tested individual ain't sick then the group more than likely ain't either. If the test is positive, then the testers test all 20 in the group. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-table-high_health202-830a:homepage/story-ans

    I have no idea whether this makes sense or not . . . seems to me that the testing would have to be repeated regularly and the person tested from the group would have to be different every time the group is tested in case another person in the group happens to be positive at that time or at a later time.

    OTOH, the pool testing strategy might be effective at finding hotspot potential before the hotspot gets too big/intense . . . so maybe it's worthwhile.

    If Trump falls into a strategy that might help mitigate the effects of the coronavirus, then Biden's hiding in the basement strategy might be far less effective . . . in which case we might see a real campaign from Biden.
     
  10. StelioKantos

    StelioKantos Junior
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    no matter what trump does or doesn’t do or any success trump does or doesn’t have biden increases his odds by staying out of the public eye, especially in a debate forum

    he is no shape to take on someone as aggressive as trump and he will look old, weak and feeble
     
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  11. Bowlmania

    Bowlmania Senior
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    No, it wasn't at this time. It was in late July, immediately following the Democratic National Convention. The national conventions give almost every nominee a significant - - and short-lived - - bump. Just prior to the Democratic National Convention in '88, Dukakis had only a narrow lead in Gallup.
     
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  12. cosmickid

    cosmickid All-American
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    Normally you'd have a point. But we're not just talking national polls. Internal Trump polls show him in trouble in states like FL,GA and even AZ. Beto said this morning that he feels Texas is Biden's to lose,and the spike in COVID cases there is only going to lead to more problems for Trump.

    Embattled GOP Senate candidates are cutting ties, and trying to salvage what they can. Same in the House where 3 GOP members voted with the Dems on the police reform bill last night. They were Hurd (TX) retiring and Fitzpatrick (PA) and Upton (MI).

    Those are 2 key battleground states (PA and MI), the bill was going to pass by a wide margin (regardless of their vote) and yet they felt the need to be recorded as voting FOR a Dem bill when they represent "swing districts"? Coincidence?

    “The election is a referendum on Trump,” said Kirk Adams, a Republican and former Arizona state House speaker. “That could change, but until then, down-ballot Republicans will have to decide if they will ride the Trump train to its final destination or if they need to establish some brand independence.”

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-sagging-popularity-drags-down-123058512.html
     
  13. cosmickid

    cosmickid All-American
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    I've been chomping to start a thread like this for a while, but kept wondering if it was too early to gain participation. So thanks for stepping out and getting it started...

    I'm going to distinguish my picks between states that went Red in 2016 that I feel will switch, and Red states that will be a lot closer than you'd normally think...

    Biden pick-ups
    PA
    MI
    WI
    FL
    NC
    IA
    GA (got a feeling...)
    AZ

    Narrow Trump wins
    OH
    SC
    TX

    Dems p/u IA, ME, CO, MT, NC in Senate, with an outside shot at 1 GA seat and SC is VERY close...AL too close to call, with GOP Primary pending...
     
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  14. IUNorth

    IUNorth All-American
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    Best educated guess...I’d say Biden picks up a handful of traditional swing states that Trump won last time. And Trump doesn’t pick up any. So Biden comfortably.

    There’s a long list of conditions and what ifs that lead to that best guess though. And I’d say the support Biden currently has is more precarious to the support Trump currently has.
     
  15. bawlmer

    bawlmer All-Big Ten
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    Trump has one card to play, the economy. My prediction - COVID wins and the economy stays weak until there's a vaccine, or until Joe makes everyone put on a mask starting January 20.
     
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  16. IUNorth

    IUNorth All-American
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    We need a vaccine, obviously, but I personally know 2 people that have tested positive, then negative, then positive again a couple months later.

    I believe we’re in the beginning stages of a very long relationship with Covid-19...and then all the different strains that come later.

    I assume the really smart people are studying and planning for this. But I can hear the terror next spring when vaccinated people start getting it.
     
  17. bawlmer

    bawlmer All-Big Ten
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    I don't disagree we'll have to live with COVID to some degree. We've already learned a lot since March, like the value of wearing masks in public places and 2 successful therapies.

    My main point is Trump is banking on the economy roaring back by November. It's causing him to be dumb about COVID. He'll learn the hard way the virus holds the upper hand.
     
  18. IUNorth

    IUNorth All-American
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    Agreed on that point. But If there happens to be a vaccine before Election Day, that could give Trump a boost. My larger point is the vaccine may not work like people expect it too. And if so, the pendulum overreaction will be huge.
     
  19. iuwclurker

    iuwclurker All-Big Ten
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    There’s also people like UncleMark who are profiting from unemployment. There’s no conceivable way the economy comes back by November. Companies learn to do with fewer workers from such recessions. It takes longer than a few months to create new jobs.
     
  20. Ladoga

    Ladoga All-Big Ten
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    I thought you were paying attention. Its way too early - didn't you notice? Just like the OP said and just like Dukakis campaign illustrated. Too early for predictions - NO, I have no predictions. Got that? Work hard, you can learn.
     
  21. Ladoga

    Ladoga All-Big Ten
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    Do you have multiple Presidential campaign internal polls? Really? Cross tabs? Detail of demographics state by state? Wow!
     
  22. bawlmer

    bawlmer All-Big Ten
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    I'd bet more on a successful vaccine next year than by election day. Not ruling it out, but even if there is one available the capacity to produce and distribute it will almost certainly not be at a level to restore the public's confidence enough to juice the economy.
     
  23. UncleMark

    UncleMark Hall of Famer
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    In my case that only lasted a month before my owner got his PPP money and reopened the first of May. It remains to be seen what will happen com August 1st when that runs out and we'll need to stand on our own. Right now there is no way the amount of business we have can sustain our payroll and overhead without the government picking up the tab.
     
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  24. UncleMark

    UncleMark Hall of Famer
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    So play along. Just for fun. What are you seeing currently? And yes, we all know a lot can change between now and November.
     
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  25. Bulk VanderHuge

    Bulk VanderHuge All-Big Ten
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    It’s harmless, buttercup. Are you scared of the T.rump monster getting you if you predict a Biden victory? Are you afraid of looking like a dumb ass if you say T.rump and Biden wins?
    Come on, snowflake...you’re a big political know-it-all. Hell, you can change your prediction later if things shift. What say you now, buttercup? Strap some on and let’s hear your hot take.
     
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  26. Ladoga

    Ladoga All-Big Ten
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    Makin' it simple for you. No, its June. Go ask Dukakis, Heck, ask your darling Hillary Clinton. Its too early period.
     
  27. bigmac76

    bigmac76 All-American
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    As 40+ year registered Republicans .... my wife and I are pulling the D lever for ALL candidates in November. If fu*king sucks that it has reached this point as we feel we have no other choice...my conservative R party has left me and I think our country is about to make a drastic change in almost everything that effects us. My hopes are that maybe a change of pace with different players in charge give a new perspective and open mindedness that there are more ways to achieve something that will improve the lives of ALL americans because the last 18-20 years have shown me that life is really like a $hit sandwich....the more bread you have...the less $hit you have to eat. The gap between the upper and bottom class of our society has never been further apart....I'm not even sure what middle class looks like anymore. Thank god we have saved money away mightily the last 30 years and with retirement 3 years away, I am going to be fine....others in my same age group dont have a clue of what is about to hit them and the chances of moving in with their children has never been more realistic. And while they dont know it yet, our grandchildren are saddled with an enormous debt for the rest of their lifes as well.

    PEACE!
     
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  28. StelioKantos

    StelioKantos Junior
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    so you’re response to Republicans becoming less conservative is to vote for even less conservative candidates?
     
  29. bigmac76

    bigmac76 All-American
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    ^^^^TELL HIM WHATS HE'S WON ALEX^^^^
     
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  30. UncleMark

    UncleMark Hall of Famer
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    Chickenshit
     
  31. UncleMark

    UncleMark Hall of Famer
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    Why is it you never see comments like this from the other direction? Has anyone heard of a lifelong Democrat saying he's pulling the lever for every Republican on the ballot?
     
  32. Bulk VanderHuge

    Bulk VanderHuge All-Big Ten
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    Just as I thought. No balls. It’s okay. You’re not alone. T.rump gave his to Putin a long time ago.
     
  33. iuwclurker

    iuwclurker All-Big Ten
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    You mistook “way-to-early” to mean realistic. You also mistook “just for fun” to mean Be a dufus. Kudos.
     
  34. iuwclurker

    iuwclurker All-Big Ten
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    Sorry I didn’t keep. Good luck to you.
     
  35. iuwclurker

    iuwclurker All-Big Ten
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    Right-sizing?
     
  36. UncleMark

    UncleMark Hall of Famer
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    No apologies necessary. Just wanted to clarify. I was making out well. Hey, if the wealthy can get theirs, I'll take mine. Bummer will be in August. If I'm on the dole then there won't be a $600 bonus to look forward to.
     
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  37. TommyCracker

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    In comparison to 2016 where he lost the popular vote and squeeked out an electoral college vote running as the 'art of the deal', business genius who was going to make the country crazy rich and successful.

    What is the reality?

    Farmers are in much worse shape from his shrewd negotiating with China (who simply found another supplier. Thanks Trump!).

    At the end of the day Trump's brand is the same. He's a simple con man that is constantly selling. 'I'm a winner, my competition are corrupt criminals'.

    Running as an incumbent is not his comfort spot. He's better at being the challenger when all you have are promises.

    Using simple math, Trump has not expanded his base, he's shrunk it.

    On the flip side he has, and I'll give him credit because he loves his ratings, he has invigorated his opposing base. The democrats in turn are putting up a safe, non offensive, vanilla candidate who is basically promising to calm the waters....which is what the country wants.

    What is Trumps base?

    African Americans hate him and are super motivated to vote.

    Suburban women can't stand him and his mysoginistic pig ways.

    Latinos think he's a monster.

    Independents have been horrified by his behavior.

    Now the over 60 polls are plummeting from his Covid response.

    Young people are the woke crowds that have taken to the streets and risked getting tear gassed and hit with rubber bullets.

    Now Republicans are jumping ship because they see the tipping point that being branded 'pro Trump' will have a stench that will stick with them the rest of their careers, like Carter democrats (and Carter is one of the kindest humanitarians that has walked this earth....but had a really rough, drab, mopey presidency).

    So what's is Trump's base? Extreme evangelicals. Hard core conservatives who are more never democrats and neo Nazi white males.

    There's also some hard core progressives that want to burn the whole thing down that will vote third party.

    I don't think that's a winning coalition for T-rump.
     
  38. dbmhoosier

    dbmhoosier Senior
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    This is Joe's to lose but FL, OH, NC, MI, and PA are much closer than the national polls suggest.
     
  39. Sope Creek

    Sope Creek Hall of Famer
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    What makes you conclude this, dbm? Do you have some data you can cite or is this a gut feeling?

    If it's a gut feeling, is it a whistling past the graveyard feeling, a day dream, wishful thinking, or something else?

    What degree of confidence do you have in that statement, on a scale of 1-100?
     
  40. Harry Hondo

    Harry Hondo Senior
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    I’ve heard this mentioned on Morning Joe and with each new day I’m starting to believe that Trump is purposely throwing the election. He has no 2nd term goals and is on the wrong side on about every issue, especially when it comes to treating COVID-19 and race relations, two of the biggest concerns on the minds of Americans. Seriously, he’s not even trying to appeal to anyone right now outside of his dwindling diehard base.
     

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