US Housing Market
- Thread starter JamieDimonsBalls
- Start date
I haven't been looking but is it safe to assume that the high interest rates are intersecting with the high prices now and that this will continue until prices adjust to the new interest rates?
teach me. what does this mean for prices? not much because there's still low inventory?
Housing's problem is a serious lack of supply. Look at the data in the link below:
ipropertymanagement.com
In 2005, we had over 2 million starts. Since 2008 we have averaged a little over 1 million. We have a shortage that has caused prices to be far too high even when interest was low. Now with rates up, prices will have to come down or there just won't be sales.
U.S. Housing Starts Data [2024 ]: Historical Charts & Statistics
Detailed statistics about new housing starts, from permit authorizations to completions, at the national, regional, and state level.
ipropertymanagement.com
In 2005, we had over 2 million starts. Since 2008 we have averaged a little over 1 million. We have a shortage that has caused prices to be far too high even when interest was low. Now with rates up, prices will have to come down or there just won't be sales.
Inventory low but interest rates are sky high. Prices should come down some at least from where they were a year ago. I believe they already are.
They already peaked in summer of 2022 and are headed lower. With such a lack of demand, there's only one places for prices to continue to go.
Housing's problem is a serious lack of supply. Look at the data in the link below:
U.S. Housing Starts Data [2024 ]: Historical Charts & Statistics
Detailed statistics about new housing starts, from permit authorizations to completions, at the national, regional, and state level.
In 2005, we had over 2 million starts. Since 2008 we have averaged a little over 1 million. We have a shortage that has caused prices to be far too high even when interest was low. Now with rates up, prices will have to come down or there just won't be sales.
There's a several million unit shortage and it isn't just a U.S. phenomenon (Canada has the same issue).
"Move to Japan and you won't have a housing shortage." - Pete Buttigieg
Japan's Spooky "Witch Houses": What's Behind This Rapidly Growing Phenomenon?
Some say they're a symbol of the nation's social decay.
www.iflscience.com
Well, ackshually, b/c of their negative birth rate Ol Pete might be right. Even though I know he didn't say that."Move to Japan and you won't have a housing shortage." - Pete Buttigieg
Japan's Spooky "Witch Houses": What's Behind This Rapidly Growing Phenomenon?
Some say they're a symbol of the nation's social decay.
"Move to Japan and you won't have a housing shortage." - Pete Buttigieg
Japan's Spooky "Witch Houses": What's Behind This Rapidly Growing Phenomenon?
Some say they're a symbol of the nation's social decay.
Why do you need to move? Given our birthrates, we'll be in a similar position soon enough
Housing prices here are still dumb. I wonder if building is smart. CustomThey already peaked in summer of 2022 and are headed lower. With such a lack of demand, there's only one places for prices to continue to go.
Raw materials and labor starting to come down. I’d wait another 6 months
jdb's my economics and real estate guy. in six months i'll find out he's a chiropractor in montreal
I'm weak....
I somehow went down the Gary, IN rabbit hole, and like 1/3 of the buildings and homes in Gary are vacant. I got on Google Maps and looked at satellite pictures, and there are entire street sections of vacant, decaying homes. I've seen cities in the rust belt and decaying, empty buildings and houses, but nothing like this.
that's how half of the city of saint louis is. detroit too. detroit is basically a massive saint louis and gary. i don't think a lot of people realize how big detroit is. anyway dan gilbert tried gentrifying a number of streets in detroit, block by block, and the communities have done some cool stuff with gardens etc. he also funded a shit ton of start ups and would house them in office buildings he bought. lease for free or super attractive rates. really, really cool stuff.
our alderman are up for election and there are more progressives than ever running. between the mayor, cori bush, the prosecutor, and the governor saint louis city will look like mad max with progressives in charge. it's a shame. woke leading the woke right down the shitter. all these old dilapidated buildings and homes in shitty areas become open air drug markets. cities need revenue, private funding, etc and just raze these homes and buildings. Spread out is too hard to police. make green spaces. detroit did a ton of that. there's things that can be done - but it takes money, and political substance, not vapid id politics.
florida's full. arizona's too hot. where else can we go? follow bulk maybe
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Southern CA will run out of water. AZ too
F*ck DFW
Florida, just no.
Cold weather:
Nor Cal
Michigan (but I really hate winter)
Upstate NY/Vermont/NH
Warm (mostly) weather:
Eastern TN/Western NC
Arkansas wil be a hotspot someday (who wanted to live in Asheville NC in 1991?)
SC
Sneaky picks - New Mexico or northern AZ
Interesting sneaky picks. I like both. Not enough in Arkansas and too hot. Love Asheville but you nailed it. 91 was the time. Can’t do winter
Can’t do winters. Californian’s are fleeing for Nevada. No taxes etc. 85 percent of the luxury homes bought in Vegas are Californian’s on the run. So that’s going to price normal people out. The idea of Newsom or Pritzker is insane
it's done. rich californians getting the F out are moving there. i just saw it last night. a luxury broker in vegas talking to josh altman on million dollar listing. it'll be cheap for them but become expensive for us.
right before the pandemic hit was the time to make the move. now we're stuck and fu*cked. per usual
So it will be ruined by the time i get there.
REally is going to East LIttle Rock or Texarkana for me isn't it?
i have to go to little rock next month. let me get the lay of the land. let them know a little bit about us. see if it could be a home for WARRIORS
You mean property values in STL haven't skyrocketed? I'm shocked. But vote for Biden, 3rd party, or don't vote. All is well.
Not all of Arizona is hot, but even the hot parts can be pretty damn sweet !
Come to Mobile, but I would suggest the Lume Deodorant stuff. You will get some swamp ass during the summ... well actually ALL of the time.
i wouldn't be surprised if you made a good buy down there. i haven't been to gulf shores in a longgggg time
That’s over 40 years ago. Who gives a shit. It’s as inapposite as citing murders from that long ago
It’s just for perspective. Like, one could say that rates are normal-ish now after a prolonged period of rock bottom rates. Which is more accurate than sky high now.
Just like if anyone complains about minimum minimum wage and the old timers fire back about how it was like $1.65 in their day. The 80s were 40 years ago, but if I were one of those 70 yr olds who bought their first house at an 18% rate, I’d mock the hell out of a “kid these days” all in their feels about 6.75%.
You’re wound too tight for a Friday night brother.
Daughter has her first “skate” night out. Like a baseball. Sorry. You are right.
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Interest rates aren’t sky high. Look at the rates in the late 70s, they were sky high. The current rates are high in comparison to recent years, but don’t qualify as “sky high.” Hope they don’t continue to rise and qualify for that.
Some say I'm the best voodoo practioner in New Orleans.
I'm with McM. Hard to compare current times to the 80s for many reasons. I've found that historical comparisons are always flawed when it comes to economics. Anyone that looks at this period vs. the 80s, one recession vs. another isn't giving credence to the different circumstances of the times. And those matter.
Kids these days don't know how good they've got it. They're soft.
Gulf Shores is BEYOND awesome, but about $250K above my market right now. But I'm 40 min away, at altitude level beach +2'. On the positive side, I'm far enough inland that the hurricane's won't be an issue, only the water surge. But my house has already been lifted 9' above sea level.
We can ride out anything, and learn how to shape the bill's on our cap's.
Roll tide !
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