Unemployment Rates / Jobs
- Thread starter mohoosier
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I am sure mohoosier lauded Pres. Obama for the outstanding job he had done for 8 years straight, laying the foundation for Trump's 2 years of extension.You're just noticing this? Have you not picked up a newspaper for the last decade?
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I am sure mohoosier lauded Pres. Obama for the outstanding job he had done for 8 years straight, laying the foundation for Trum's 2 years of extension.
Fake numbers back then. So he naturally
ignored any pre-Trump information.
This economy is built on quicksand. The national debt is ballooning to unsustainable levels. When the chickens come home to roost, look out below.
Yeah, but the Trump inauguration crowd was bigger, much bigger than Obama's! I bet Trump flunked math class in schools.
No kidding. Crowing about this economy is like paying all your bills with your credit card, then bragging about your growing bank accout.
I beg to differ. A number of the folks here will dispute those facts. They have just living in the golden reign of A.T 0002
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Stupid to you but the tweet, unfortunately, is probably news to some. Two weeks ago I had lunch with someone that thought the stock market went down “year after year” during the Obama years.
Those people deserve all of the misfortune they have
That's about what I think...but I've always been a "doomsday" guy and have the most conservative portfolio ever. Most people won't agree with me..that I know. My goal is 6%. People laugh at having such a low target return, but I want to keep my money under all circumstances.
The stimulus of the tax cut will be fully incorporated into the markets next year, for sure..there will be no more stimulus effect, and huge budget deficits will accompany that. Next, we're dealing with an unwinnable trade war with China. China will not lose this trade war...period. They are an authoritarian regime who can wait out a terrible economy and there is no one to vote them out of office, whether it takes 3 years or a decade. I had dinner with a Chinese woman who is the CEO of a major auto parts manufacturer for 1 of the big 3 automakers and supplies parts to every major U.S. auto part store. She told me the same. She said "the Chinese are used to being poor. A downturn in the economy will not anger their population. They will patiently wait as long as it takes". It's unwinnable from a U.S. perspective. Finally, he's correct that interest rates are far too low and have been for too long. It's time to normalize rates.
2008 affected me in a big way, mentally. Meeting people who lost half of their savings who were ready to retire was terrible. I personally never want to be in that place, ever.
Anyway, just my rant.
The stimulus of the tax cut will be fully incorporated into the markets next year, for sure..there will be no more stimulus effect, and huge budget deficits will accompany that. Next, we're dealing with an unwinnable trade war with China. China will not lose this trade war...period. They are an authoritarian regime who can wait out a terrible economy and there is no one to vote them out of office, whether it takes 3 years or a decade. I had dinner with a Chinese woman who is the CEO of a major auto parts manufacturer for 1 of the big 3 automakers and supplies parts to every major U.S. auto part store. She told me the same. She said "the Chinese are used to being poor. A downturn in the economy will not anger their population. They will patiently wait as long as it takes". It's unwinnable from a U.S. perspective. Finally, he's correct that interest rates are far too low and have been for too long. It's time to normalize rates.
2008 affected me in a big way, mentally. Meeting people who lost half of their savings who were ready to retire was terrible. I personally never want to be in that place, ever.
Anyway, just my rant.
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Apparently, mohoosier is not Sherlock, I think is what you are saying.
Plus there is a cultural/historical component to China -- they had to undergo a century of humiliation by the Manchus who allowed foreign powers to carve up parts of China and the indigenous Han Chinese. Then later the Japanese occupying and killing off like six million Chinese during WWII.
The lessons learnt from that is ''Never again.'' Their strategy has to be seen from this perspective -- so its more 'defensive' rather than 'offensive' as many would like to see it for their own agenda.
This will explain their also geopolitical and military postures; from the Spratlys to the Pearl necklace of ports along Asia to Africa. They will also not allow for financial/commercial subjugation either.
Yes, they will wait out the US' financial/commercial 'war' (as seen by them) by Trump, knowing that he is a lot of bluster for political effects and will eventually compromise.
Patience is a strength for them.
They will also remember this approach and will lose trust in the country -- for decades to come. How can they trust the country again when in the 70's Nixon/Kissinger tells them to open up and enjoy the fruits of a global market and now 50years later tells them its a bad thing what they are doing.
Plus they can't trust the Congress particularly the Republicans, who were so pro-trade and have capitulated into a nationalist, inward-looking country in barely two years ago.
It reeks of hypocrisy or at least folks who really do not believe in what they are really saying. Trump also will just accelerate the country's decline with his negative impact as the 'leader of the free world'.
This will be long term effect -- the next time some US politician tells China what they need to do, you can imagine what's going through their minds.
China of 15 years or even ten years ago would have shuddered at Trump's threats back then. They aren't so much now. It's a much more confident country now -- IMO a tad arrogant but considering what it as achieved in the last two decades, it is understandable.
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Exactly, and I have heard the same from people in Hong Kong. China has no timetable. They can wait out any Democratic revolt there. Eventually Hong Kong and (you would know better than me) Taiwan will fall into line.
What are your thoughts on that?
What are your thoughts on that?
Plus there is a cultural/historical component to China -- they had to undergo a century of humiliation by the Manchus who allowed foreign powers to carve up parts of China and the indigenous Han Chinese. Then later the Japanese occupying and killing off like six million Chinese during WWII.
The lessons learnt from that is ''Never again.'' Their strategy has to be seen from this perspective -- so its more 'defensive' rather than 'offensive' as many would like to see it for their own agenda.
This will explain their also geopolitical and military postures; from the Spratlys to the Pearl necklace of ports along Asia to Africa. They will also not allow for financial/commercial subjugation either.
Yes, they will wait out the US' financial/commercial 'war' (as seen by them) by Trump, knowing that he is a lot of bluster for political effects and will eventually compromise.
Patience is a strength for them.
They will also remember this approach and will lose trust in the country -- for decades to come. How can they trust the country again when in the 70's Nixon/Kissinger tells them to open up and enjoy the fruits of a global market and now 50years later tells them its a bad thing what they are doing.
Plus they can't trust the Congress particularly the Republicans, who were so pro-trade and have capitulated into a nationalist, inward-looking country in barely two years ago.
It reeks of hypocrisy or at least folks who really do not believe in what they are really saying. Trump also will just accelerate the country's decline with his negative impact as the 'leader of the free world'.
This will be long term effect -- the next time some US politician tells China what they need to do, you can imagine what's going through their minds.
China of 15 years or even ten years ago would have shuddered at Trump's threats back then. They aren't so much now. It's a much more confident country now -- IMO a tad arrogant but considering what it as achieved in the last two decades, it is understandable.
Also, it’s interesting in the graph you posted, Russia doesn’t even appear. Yet, Republicans let them dictate our elections and are totally okay with it.
Very strange.
Very strange.
Plus there is a cultural/historical component to China -- they had to undergo a century of humiliation by the Manchus who allowed foreign powers to carve up parts of China and the indigenous Han Chinese. Then later the Japanese occupying and killing off like six million Chinese during WWII.
The lessons learnt from that is ''Never again.'' Their strategy has to be seen from this perspective -- so its more 'defensive' rather than 'offensive' as many would like to see it for their own agenda.
This will explain their also geopolitical and military postures; from the Spratlys to the Pearl necklace of ports along Asia to Africa. They will also not allow for financial/commercial subjugation either.
Yes, they will wait out the US' financial/commercial 'war' (as seen by them) by Trump, knowing that he is a lot of bluster for political effects and will eventually compromise.
Patience is a strength for them.
They will also remember this approach and will lose trust in the country -- for decades to come. How can they trust the country again when in the 70's Nixon/Kissinger tells them to open up and enjoy the fruits of a global market and now 50years later tells them its a bad thing what they are doing.
Plus they can't trust the Congress particularly the Republicans, who were so pro-trade and have capitulated into a nationalist, inward-looking country in barely two years ago.
It reeks of hypocrisy or at least folks who really do not believe in what they are really saying. Trump also will just accelerate the country's decline with his negative impact as the 'leader of the free world'.
This will be long term effect -- the next time some US politician tells China what they need to do, you can imagine what's going through their minds.
China of 15 years or even ten years ago would have shuddered at Trump's threats back then. They aren't so much now. It's a much more confident country now -- IMO a tad arrogant but considering what it as achieved in the last two decades, it is understandable.
I will add a final opinion. Americans generally don’t understand Asian culture. They think they can force feed US/Western culture down Asians’ throats.
Anyone who has done business with the Japanese understands that’s not the case, but as China becomes more and more powerful, the onus will be on the West to adapt to their way of thinking if they want to do business there. The days of the US muscling them around is over (IMHO).
Anyone who has done business with the Japanese understands that’s not the case, but as China becomes more and more powerful, the onus will be on the West to adapt to their way of thinking if they want to do business there. The days of the US muscling them around is over (IMHO).
Plus there is a cultural/historical component to China -- they had to undergo a century of humiliation by the Manchus who allowed foreign powers to carve up parts of China and the indigenous Han Chinese. Then later the Japanese occupying and killing off like six million Chinese during WWII.
The lessons learnt from that is ''Never again.'' Their strategy has to be seen from this perspective -- so its more 'defensive' rather than 'offensive' as many would like to see it for their own agenda.
This will explain their also geopolitical and military postures; from the Spratlys to the Pearl necklace of ports along Asia to Africa. They will also not allow for financial/commercial subjugation either.
Yes, they will wait out the US' financial/commercial 'war' (as seen by them) by Trump, knowing that he is a lot of bluster for political effects and will eventually compromise.
Patience is a strength for them.
They will also remember this approach and will lose trust in the country -- for decades to come. How can they trust the country again when in the 70's Nixon/Kissinger tells them to open up and enjoy the fruits of a global market and now 50years later tells them its a bad thing what they are doing.
Plus they can't trust the Congress particularly the Republicans, who were so pro-trade and have capitulated into a nationalist, inward-looking country in barely two years ago.
It reeks of hypocrisy or at least folks who really do not believe in what they are really saying. Trump also will just accelerate the country's decline with his negative impact as the 'leader of the free world'.
This will be long term effect -- the next time some US politician tells China what they need to do, you can imagine what's going through their minds.
China of 15 years or even ten years ago would have shuddered at Trump's threats back then. They aren't so much now. It's a much more confident country now -- IMO a tad arrogant but considering what it as achieved in the last two decades, it is understandable.
Taiwan is a strange one. There are enough Taiwanese working and invested in China as it is. Its almost a MAD situation.
As long as they dont make a fuss about independence, they will learn to co-exist.
The problem with China is that there is a generational gap in the perception of time and the need for political change. Those at the top recognise the need for change but the problem is their perception of time.
Time in the previous generation is recognised in terms of 50 years or a generation or two. The people in the streets see time as in now or at latest tomorrow like most folks or like Millenials around the world. They never grew up in abject poverty, no thanks to Mao.
They need an infusing of younger politicians who have a better feel for the ground. The problem is that is doesnt know which way it needs to go -- decentralisation or the traditional centralised control. I have seen both models -- esp for work.
The decentralisation model led to a corrupt provincial bureaucracy in most provinces -- many trying to fast track itself due to pride or competitiveness between the provinces esp with the East Seaboard.
IMO the biggest fracture or pitfall for China and its growth going forward its the lack of financial transparency within the companies but especially its banking system. I think that's what they are trying to do by pulling back control centrally.
Absolutely.
Whenever you write a regional business plan, the first thing you need to describe is its qualitative analysis that includes the historical, cultural and demographical behaviour patterns. And not it's macroeconomic numbers.
To understand the history and culture ie societal DNA is to try and predict its future behaviour patterns. Answer the Why question first -- after all, business at a high level is conducted between people and other folks -- unless you are on Wall Street with automated trading.
Its the first thing I learn and also the thing I remember the most of all the things I do at work.
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That part you said about "infusing of younger politicians", There are whispers that the Chinese model of Government is stronger for the future than the American Republic. It is a new idea and I can't wrap my mind around it yet but it seems to embrace their central power and their ability to act with impunity to opposition. The American Republic may have faults but the "infusing of younger politicians" has many examples in our election process. Watergate produced a huge young freshman class.
Plus China isnt as homogenous as its appears -- they dont all look or think the same.
I think 95% are Han Chinese. And yet that term is a broad brush of simplicity. There are hundreds of dialects and sub-dialects in China where they are so different I cant understand most of them. I know more Greek than the local Shanghai dialect.
Its not like the difference between a southern Tennessean dialect and a Texan dialect. They are over-simplifying it by calling it dialects which in most western cases are different accents -- like a Scouse and a Mancurian in England. They are literally different languages.
With different languages, come different cultures and therefore the separation between one person of a dialect/province and another not working together.
This was probably the best thing Mao did -- to unify the country through the usage of the main northern dialect, Mandarin. (Which is ironic imo -- adoption of the language of the Royal Court by a communist leader.)
But the southerners like the Cantonese of Guangzhou still prefer to work with one of their own and therefore the Cantonese of HK -- rather than with the Northerners of Beijing or Shanghai. But the walls are breaking away.
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Its a different culture -- I have been here long enough I can appreciate its approach.
The seeds of it come from thousands of years of wars and disunity within the country. You got to remember that China has 5,500 years of written history.
What they seek is more of a political and on the bigger picture, social harmony.
They don't believe in the gladiatorial approach of American politics and of Western democracies in general which they find quite destructive. It has also a history of emperors with singular leaders who have had the 'mandate of Heaven' to rule carte blanche.
So to expect them to have some sort of Western Democracy would go against every grain of its historical past.
If Americans cant get rid of its gun as an obvious solution for its chronic problem, you can't expect the Chinese to adopt something structurally thats even more foreign.
I am meeting for dinner tomorrow with a Chinese woman who is a Director and quant at a very large financial services company. I'm going to bounce a lot of this off of her because she's a decade younger than me and will probably have some good insight.
She'll be honest because I'm taking her to Tahiti next month!
She'll be honest because I'm taking her to Tahiti next month!
Plus China isnt as homogenous as its appears -- they dont all look or think the same.
I think 95% are Han Chinese. And yet that term is a broad brush of simplicity. There are hundreds of dialects and sub-dialects in China where they are so different I cant understand most of them. I know more Greek than the local Shanghai dialect.
Its not like the difference between a southern Tennessean dialect and a Texan dialect. They are over-simplifying it by calling it dialects which in most western cases are different accents -- like a Scouse and a Mancurian in England. They are literally different languages.
With different languages, come different cultures and therefore the separation between one person of a dialect/province and another not working together.
This was probably the best thing Mao did -- to unify the country through the usage of the main northern dialect, Mandarin. (Which is ironic imo -- adoption of the language of the Royal Court by a communist leader.)
But the southerners like the Cantonese of Guangzhou still prefer to work with one of their own and therefore the Cantonese of HK -- rather than with the Northerners of Beijing or Shanghai. But the walls are breaking away.
I am meeting for dinner tomorrow with a Chinese woman who is a Director and quant at a very large financial services company. I'm going to bounce a lot of this off of her because she's a decade younger than me and will probably have some good insight.
She'll be honest because I'm taking her to Tahiti next month!
I dint know there was a big hedge fund biz in Tahiti?
Is she a PRC or ABC? Or BBC?
Well, some people like the golf course. I prefer Bora Bora.
I don't know what PRC or ABC mean?
I don't know what PRC or ABC mean?
I dint know there was a big hedge fund biz in Tahiti?
Is she a PRC or ABC? Or BBC?
PRC: People's Republic of China
ABC: American born Chinese
BBC: British born Chinese
We will all have differing prisms -- me probably being the most fecked up one.
Cantonese or Xiamen then?
I speak mainly southern dialects/languages incl Cantonese and Hokkien.
China is a fascinating country. There is so much history, interesting cultural points of interest but unfortunately, the rapid growth had corrupted some of the zoning laws and destroyed old heritage buildings for the sake of capitalism -- in the main Eastern Seaboard cities.
Move westwards and things still remind the same. I would like to do the Silk Route one of these days. Gobi Desert etc.
One of my gf asked me to do Mongolia this Christmas but with one of my cats being somewhat ill/old, its a bit difficult to leave. (She is in Luang Prabang, Laos for this long weekend -- was invited but cant.)
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I've always wanted to go to Mongolia. Looks amazing.
China is a fascinating country. There is so much history, interesting cultural points of interest but unfortunately, the rapid growth had corrupted some of the zoning laws and destroyed old heritage buildings for the sake of capitalism -- in the main Eastern Seaboard cities.
Move westwards and things still remind the same. I would like to do the Silk Route one of these days. Gobi Desert etc.
One of my gf asked me to do Mongolia this Christmas but with one of my cats being somewhat ill/old, its a bit difficult to leave. (She is in Luang Prabang, Laos for this long weekend -- was invited but cant.)
Yeap. Closest I got was a domestic flight that was heading to Ulan Bator and I had to get off in Beijing.
I'll be in SG in January. We definitely need to meet up!
Yeap. Closest I got was a domestic flight that was heading to Ulan Bator and I had to get off in Beijing.
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