Trumpcession
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There were far more than those 16 “Noble” laureates.
What those 16 said, though, I believe was that that program would ease “longer-term inflationary pressures.”
Inflation, after quickly spiking, in fact dropped precipitously and was approaching the Fed’s 2% target a few months ago. That number will be little more than a fantasy a year from now.
They’re doing exactly what they said they were going to do. Bessent has been telegraphing it numerous times in interviews.
I think Social Security is going to be screwed over. The default, if no one acts, is roughly a 21% cut in 2033 or so. My plans account for that as no one has the political will to actually address the issue.
Man you’ll believe anything huh sport? We had to listen to moron after moron breathlessly explain how inflation was transitory last administration.
“Ease long term inflationary pressures” I guess is a nice euphemism for:
“Well, it will have to come back down eventually”
Hence the problem with Biden v Trump. The Biden admin. was ideological. Ideological about massive spending projects they believed would change the world, ideological about open borders and free for all immigration. And then when their failures were made manifest, they would lie.
“Inflation is transitory”
“the border is secure”
Trump is not ideological. He wants to win, he reacts and changes course after poor outcomes even if he’ll never accept blame for them”
Hence why I have faith and we all should.
That's how I feel about Tariffs, we don't like what China is doing, fight our tariff war against China. But no, we declare war on the entire world. We're like the German Kaiser, we are the biggest and baddest and can fight the rest of the world all at the same time.
But we probably can't do it all at once, and if we can we won't like the pain.
This is not true. Inflation has been on the rise the last several months. Also, I’ll take the other side. Inflation will come down if we go into a recession.
There were some really ill advised rate cuts in late 2024 when yoy inflation numbers didn’t warrant them.
Likely a political move by Powell but who’s to say.
That is a big part of it. Never underestimate the average foreign countries ability to endure pain better than us. In the case of China especially. We are spoiled and entitled.
You will likely see trade deals that exclude the US. If the EU is serious about ramping up their military, will they start to issue EU bonds? Out of my wheel house there if someone else could comment.
If the US dollar and treasuries ever become less favored by foreign investors, look the hell out.
How hard is it to significantly raise the Social Security tax limit, from $176,100 (now) to (say) $400,000? Or no upper limit? Nobody earning less than $176K would pay a penny more. Right now, a billionaire pays the same amount into Social Security as someone who makes $176,100 a year.
Sure, people above $176K would be paying more and you'd have to promise them less of a payout, percentage wise, but such a minor adjustment as this would increase solvency for generations.
Removing the cap was something Bernie proposed in 2021. It was also coupled to expanding SS payouts (even named the Social Security Expansion Act), though, so it had no chance. He's pushing it again. It would be wiser to first focus on dollar influx, though, IMO.
I think Trump is looking for a recession in order to cut rates. At heart he is and always will be a real estate investor.
Removing the cap would hit me, but I really don't mind if it extends the life. Plus my company foots half the bill. 😄
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.4 percent on March 6, up from -2.8 percent on March 3. After recent releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.0 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, to 0.4 percent and 4.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -3.57 percentage points to -3.84 percentage points
It’s not a minor adjustment. Some of us make relatively little over 176K and it ****s our quality of life.
Are they though? He's been clear from the get-go about his pro-tariff agenda. Plenty won't like the result, but that's on them, isn't it?
Businesses don't like uncertainty and risk. What has Trump done in his first few months that didn't enhance uncertainty and risk for business? I can name a bunch of things he has done that increased them.
Be objective for once in your life.
There's no free lunch. Unless you want to roll back benefits, somebody's going to pay more. I'd rather it not be those with incomes unlikely to have allowed them to build their own hefty 401K safety net.
You could also increase the age limit to affect the other side of the ledger. It has already gone from 65 to 67, depending on your DOB. Life expectancy is so much longer today.
I'd prefer to focus on the money coming in, though. Sure, cut fraud and waste, but I know of no evidence that abuse is a major problem with SS outlays.
You’re talking to someone who doesn’t believe SS should exist so keep that in mind. So yes, I select roll back benefits. Even better, make SS an optional, market based program.
That thing jumps around like crazy. I don't put too much stock in it, but fun to get the mood of the week.
I don't think most pay that close of attention and just assumed it would be a lot of bluster and little impact, like Trump 1.0.
May well still be. But market certainly seems to be taking it more seriously right now
Yea, it's incredibly volatile and often inaccurate - at least it was several years ago when I would follow it more closely.
Settle down. Have a drink or three. There will never be a reduction in SS benefits. The cap will be raised and other tweaks will be out there. But “they” know there would be a “gray revolution” if “they” tried to reduce the monthly benefit. Will never happen.
Too much chaos and confusion:
www.nbcnews.com
Dow falls nearly 900 points and Nasdaq dives 4% as stock selloff gathers steam
President Donald Trump, when asked about the possibility of a recession, said the economy was going through “a period of transition.”
www.nbcnews.com
Never say never as the population continues to age. Reduction in benefits can take many forms.
I expect means testing at some point. I also see increased minimum ages to start collecting.
These are the tweaks. Retirement age might change. Means testing might be put in place for high earners. But if somebody’s grandmother is receiving $2,000 per month, with annual COLAs, that will never be cut by some percentage, say, 25%, for example. There might be some different rules for future retirees, but I don’t ever see someone getting smacked with a percentage cut in benefits.
