The S&P 500 grew at 12% per year under Trump

JamieDimonsBalls

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Timing as when a president takes office in terms of what happens to the economy and the stock market is everything. As with Herbert Hoover this might not be a fair way to appraise a president, but that is the way the cookie crumbles.

Old Joe Biden might not be as lucky, as say Clinton or Trump, according to experts looking at the next ten years in this report which in part states,

The U.S. stock market’s prospects over the next decade are dismal. That’s hardly news for value-focused advisers who have been sounding this alarm for several years now. What is new is the way in which one economist has reached this same conclusion.​
I wouldn't put a ton of stock in this report which uses the antiquated CAPE ratio. If this SF Fed analyst was anything impressive, he'd be managing money.

More importantly, Robert Shiller, the famous Yale Prof that invented the CAPE, recently admitted that it is no longer effective in today's environment.


Thus, the level of interest rates is an increasingly important element to consider when valuing equities. To capture these effects and compare investments in stocks versus bonds, we developed the ECY, which considers both equity valuation and interest-rate levels. To calculate the ECY, we simply invert the CAPE ratio to get a yield and then subtract the ten-year real interest rate.

This measure is somewhat like the equity market premium and is a useful way to consider the interplay of long-term valuations and interest rates. A higher measure indicates that equities are more attractive. The ECY in the US, for example, is 4%, derived from a CAPE yield of 3% and then subtracting a ten-year real interest rate of -1.0% (adjusted using the preceding ten years’ average inflation rate of 2%).


That being said, the overall concept isn't necessarily wrong considering inflation expectations for the next ten years are much lower than the previous ten years, which implies a lower expected return from assets.
 
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JamieDimonsBalls

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That statistic doesn't translate into prosperity for a lot of Americans. It's great for folks who have the wage/wealth capacity to invest for profit or retirement ( I count myself in that group). It's pretty meaningless for folks earning less than $20 per hour, young households that have to commit most of their income to consumption (and large student loan debt), or those whose income is eaten up by high costs for health insurance and medical care (like my adult children in their 20's and early 30's).
While true, the income gap actually narrowed for several years leading up to COVID as lower bands were making significant gains.
 
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Sope Creek

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I wouldn't put a ton of stock in this report which uses the antiquated CAPE ratio. If this SF Fed analyst was anything impressive, he'd be managing money.

More importantly, Robert Shiller, the famous Yale Prof that invented the CAPE, recently admitted that it is no longer effective in today's environment.


Thus, the level of interest rates is an increasingly important element to consider when valuing equities. To capture these effects and compare investments in stocks versus bonds, we developed the ECY, which considers both equity valuation and interest-rate levels. To calculate the ECY, we simply invert the CAPE ratio to get a yield and then subtract the ten-year real interest rate.

This measure is somewhat like the equity market premium and is a useful way to consider the interplay of long-term valuations and interest rates. A higher measure indicates that equities are more attractive. The ECY in the US, for example, is 4%, derived from a CAPE yield of 3% and then subtracting a ten-year real interest rate of -1.0% (adjusted using the preceding ten years’ average inflation rate of 2%).


That being said, the overall concept isn't necessarily wrong considering inflation expectations for the next ten years are much lower than the previous ten years, which implies a lower expected return from assets.
The article you linked is behind a paywall, but it sounds an awful lot like this article: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sky-high-stock-prices-make-sense-robert-shiller-says-11606838599.

If so, then the key variable is low interest rates. I would note two things (a) the article you linked is dated as of 11/30/2020, which is when interest rates were at or close to their lowest in history, and (b) interest rates have been rising recently. Unless Shiller explains how the CAPE is no longer relevant if interest rates move higher, I'd put an asterisk beside that link and revisit it when we know what happens to stock prices - and real estate prices - when interest rates move up.
 

TR32

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The healthcare business is quite good thanks to Trump and his middle ages approach to science.
 

hoot1

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The article you linked is behind a paywall, but it sounds an awful lot like this article: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sky-high-stock-prices-make-sense-robert-shiller-says-11606838599.

If so, then the key variable is low interest rates. I would note two things (a) the article you linked is dated as of 11/30/2020, which is when interest rates were at or close to their lowest in history, and (b) interest rates have been rising recently. Unless Shiller explains how the CAPE is no longer relevant if interest rates move higher, I'd put an asterisk beside that link and revisit it when we know what happens to stock prices - and real estate prices - when interest rates move up.
Seems to me the huge deficit spending, thanks to Covid and pre Covid tax cuts, will result in higher interest rates down the road. Just another bump in the road ahead for Old Joe,

As i said earlier, timing as the economic future trend already in place when a president takes office is vital to how well the economy does during his tenure.
 

mainway_toys

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Apparently only Bill Clinton and Calvin Coolidge had a better mark. While Trump certainly inherited a robust market, like it or not, he gets credit for keeping it humming along/growing.

It's mind-boggling that people could give up on a President that oversaw such growth. His 4 year term was a huge bull market that saw people's investments mushroom.

To think that this country is now trotting out an 80 year old man that should be on a dementia medication, is boggling, simply mind-boggling.

What a high price to pay to elect someone that's 'presidential'....
He basically gave the very rich the permission to use the national credit card to buy a buttload of stock. The stock market and national debt rose in tandem. As puny an accomplishment as that was, it doesn't even belong to Trump. A Republican house and senate did that. ANY Republican President would have signed it.

Trump will correctly remembered as a failed Fascist who killed 400,000 Americans and turned this country into a laughing stock.
 

cosmickid

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Bullshit, that's the media feeding you that garbage. I've listened to his speech, he never ever said to burglarize the Capitol, break windows, etc. Personal responsibility is lost on the left, completely lost.
"Personal responsibility is lost on the left, completely lost."

Why do you post nonsense?

Pretty sure the folks raising the defense that they only went to DC because Trump asked them to are exclusively Right wing Trumplicans...

So if Trump pardons these morons, does that mean neither he nor them understand the concept of "personal responsibility"?


 
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td75

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He basically gave the very rich the permission to use the national credit card to buy a buttload of stock. The stock market and national debt rose in tandem. As puny an accomplishment as that was, it doesn't even belong to Trump. A Republican house and senate did that. ANY Republican President would have signed it.

Trump will correctly remembered as a failed Fascist who killed 400,000 Americans and turned this country into a laughing stock.
And you believe the bullshit you just typed. People like you are a big reason this country is on the brink of a total meltdown. You and your kind are slowly sucking the life out of this country.
 
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TommyCracker

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And you believe the bullshit you just typed. People like you are a big reason this country is on the brink of a total meltdown. You and your kind are slowly sucking the life out of this country.
We're only on meltdown because you MAGA's have rallied behind some fake cause that doesn't even exist.

Liberals don't want to hurt you. We're not coming for you. We just want to make sure everyone is included.

Remember no child left behind? It's similar to that.

My right wing friend kept warning me of an upcoming civil war and told me I should get a gun. Another right wing guy who is my gf's friend said he was going to sell his house before Jan 20th before the crash when the 'libs' take over.

Another right wing friend has taken his money out of the banks and has made 'to go' packages where he has enough food for him and his family to hang out at his cabin for a couple of months.

Seriously, what the f#$k are you guys listening to?

The only way there's going to be a civil war is if you force it like last week and want to die and kill the country in the name of Trump.

The left just wants to get through the pandemic, get back to some normalcy and start discussions on heath care, criminal and infrastructure reform.

Seriously, that's 90% all we want to do.

The great thing about our country is you get to try again in four years.

It's like having a coach on a four year contract.

Wouldn't that be nice.

If you want to eliminate the free elections than what's the plan, an authoritarian regime that took over by violence and rules by fear?

Seriously what do you want and why have you turned from passionate Americans to a Trump loving cult?

It's madness man.
 

HooDatGuy

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We're only on meltdown because you MAGA's have rallied behind some fake cause that doesn't even exist.

Liberals don't want to hurt you. We're not coming for you. We just want to make sure everyone is included.

Remember no child left behind? It's similar to that.

My right wing friend kept warning me of an upcoming civil war and told me I should get a gun. Another right wing guy who is my gf's friend said he was going to sell his house before Jan 20th before the crash when the 'libs' take over.

Another right wing friend has taken his money out of the banks and has made 'to go' packages where he has enough food for him and his family to hang out at his cabin for a couple of months.

Seriously, what the f#$k are you guys listening to?

The only way there's going to be a civil war is if you force it like last week and want to die and kill the country in the name of Trump.

The left just wants to get through the pandemic, get back to some normalcy and start discussions on heath care, criminal and infrastructure reform.

Seriously, that's 90% all we want to do.

The great thing about our country is you get to try again in four years.

It's like having a coach on a four year contract.

Wouldn't that be nice.

If you want to eliminate the free elections than what's the plan, an authoritarian regime that took over by violence and rules by fear?

Seriously what do you want and why have you turned from passionate Americans to a Trump loving cult?

It's madness man.
This post ain’t bad. A lot of Republicans gone cray. It’s weird.
 

TheOriginalHappyGoat

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A lot of Democrats gone cray, people are cray.
People always been crazy, but the specific Republican cray you were referring to has been brewing for a while, and anyone paying attention could see it coming. The reason I know this is the people paying attention warned everyone about it years ago. Up until last Wednesday, the vast majority of Republicans decided to ignore the warnings. Now, many of them seem to be opening their eyes. We'll see how that goes.
 
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HooDatGuy

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People always been crazy, but the specific Republican cray you were referring to has been brewing for a while, and anyone paying attention could see it coming. The reason I know this is the people paying attention warned everyone about it years ago. Up until last Wednesday, the vast majority of Republicans decided to ignore the warnings. Now, many of them seem to be opening their eyes. We'll see how that goes.
I liked a lot of Trump Administration policy but always recognized he had zero leadership skills. I thought his rhetoric was stupid and unhelpful, but I never thought it would erupt in what happened January 6th.

There were 100+ Republicans in congress actively misleading their constituents into the idea that the election could be swung on January 6th. Complete madness. That also fueled the event.
 

TheOriginalHappyGoat

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I liked a lot of Trump Administration policy but always recognized he had zero leadership skills. I thought his rhetoric was stupid and unhelpful, but I never thought it would erupt in what happened January 6th.

There were 100+ Republicans in congress actively misleading their constituents into the idea that the election could be swung on January 6th. Complete madness. That also fueled the event.
And that's exactly what I'm talking about. Feeding these people instead of recognizing their danger.
 

Bill4411

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We're only on meltdown because you MAGA's have rallied behind some fake cause that doesn't even exist.

Liberals don't want to hurt you. We're not coming for you. We just want to make sure everyone is included.

Remember no child left behind? It's similar to that.

My right wing friend kept warning me of an upcoming civil war and told me I should get a gun. Another right wing guy who is my gf's friend said he was going to sell his house before Jan 20th before the crash when the 'libs' take over.

Another right wing friend has taken his money out of the banks and has made 'to go' packages where he has enough food for him and his family to hang out at his cabin for a couple of months.

Seriously, what the f#$k are you guys listening to?

The only way there's going to be a civil war is if you force it like last week and want to die and kill the country in the name of Trump.

The left just wants to get through the pandemic, get back to some normalcy and start discussions on heath care, criminal and infrastructure reform.

Seriously, that's 90% all we want to do.

The great thing about our country is you get to try again in four years.

It's like having a coach on a four year contract.

Wouldn't that be nice.

If you want to eliminate the free elections than what's the plan, an authoritarian regime that took over by violence and rules by fear?

Seriously what do you want and why have you turned from passionate Americans to a Trump loving cult?

It's madness man.
D. W. Griffith showed what will happen next week:

 
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JamieDimonsBalls

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The article you linked is behind a paywall, but it sounds an awful lot like this article: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sky-high-stock-prices-make-sense-robert-shiller-says-11606838599.

If so, then the key variable is low interest rates. I would note two things (a) the article you linked is dated as of 11/30/2020, which is when interest rates were at or close to their lowest in history, and (b) interest rates have been rising recently. Unless Shiller explains how the CAPE is no longer relevant if interest rates move higher, I'd put an asterisk beside that link and revisit it when we know what happens to stock prices - and real estate prices - when interest rates move up.
The point is the CAPE was proven to be useful during a much different economic environment. Valuations have remained well above the historical median and mean for over ten years with no signs of changing. Shiller has been wrong for many years and now is trying to pivot and explain why CAPE is no longer relevant in modern economic times in order to save face and stay relevant.

The premise in hoots article is that valuations started high, so therefore, there is less upside. That is logically sensible based on what we know about valuation and the concept of ZIRP, but given real yields have demonstrated demand for negative yielding financial instruments (would have been unfathomable in the 70s and 80s), the truth is, we don’t know exactly how much lower returns expectations will get.
 

Sope Creek

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The point is the CAPE was proven to be useful during a much different economic environment. Valuations have remained well above the historical median and mean for over ten years with no signs of changing. Shiller has been wrong for many years and now is trying to pivot and explain why CAPE is no longer relevant in modern economic times in order to save face and stay relevant.

The premise in hoots article is that valuations started high, so therefore, there is less upside. That is logically sensible based on what we know about valuation and the concept of ZIRP, but given real yields have demonstrated demand for negative yielding financial instruments (would have been unfathomable in the 70s and 80s), the truth is, we don’t know exactly how much lower returns expectations will get.
Maybe. And maybe we've just been fooling ourselves with ZIRP.

I would suggest that hoot's seen a lot of economic environments before, and what he's likely banking on is a return to the mean, particularly with respect to interest rates . . . which will punch a hole in valuations of all sorts of assets. What would cause this? Tax policy that recognizes that governments can't keep borrowing against future income . . . . Why? Because the taxpayers who will have to pay it back will say "Enough already!".

CoH said deficits didn't matter because he would be dead when they would have to be paid back. Trump took the same attitude . . . heck, I'm going to be dead before they will be paid back in full, but not before the reckoning requiring payments to start . . . and my sons are already railing about the national debt because they're looking at their lives and their children's lives long-term.
 

Sope Creek

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Seems to me the huge deficit spending, thanks to Covid and pre Covid tax cuts, will result in higher interest rates down the road. Just another bump in the road ahead for Old Joe,

As i said earlier, timing as the economic future trend already in place when a president takes office is vital to how well the economy does during his tenure.
Looks like the country will be relying on Democratic economic management competence to bail the country out of a jam created by a GOP administration again. :cool:
 

JamieDimonsBalls

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Maybe. And maybe we've just been fooling ourselves with ZIRP.

I would suggest that hoot's seen a lot of economic environments before, and what he's likely banking on is a return to the mean, particularly with respect to interest rates . . . which will punch a hole in valuations of all sorts of assets. What would cause this? Tax policy that recognizes that governments can't keep borrowing against future income . . . . Why? Because the taxpayers who will have to pay it back will say "Enough already!".

CoH said deficits didn't matter because he would be dead when they would have to be paid back. Trump took the same attitude . . . heck, I'm going to be dead before they will be paid back in full, but not before the reckoning requiring payments to start . . . and my sons are already railing about the national debt because they're looking at their lives and their children's lives long-term.
what do you say to Goat and COH that believe we can continuously finance and refinance infinitely (within reason)?

have we not created a society that is based upon welfare and handouts? Hard to see long term deficits change trajectory based on that approach. People always wants more and give less at all levels.

Our demographics are a mess and nothing can structurally address that problem.
 
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td75

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Looks like the country will be relying on Democratic economic management competence to bail the country out of a jam created by a GOP administration again. :cool:
Well Joe's on record as saying he will help minority business owners and that it will be a corner stone of his administration.
 

td75

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what do you say to Goat and COH that believe we can continuously finance and refinance infinitely (within reason)?

have we not created a society that is based upon welfare and handouts? Hard to see long term deficits change trajectory based on that approach. People always wants more and give less at all levels.

Our demographics are a mess and nothing can structurally address that problem.
Figuring out a solution to our debt problem is above my pay grade. That said, common sense tells me if we could ever bring back manufacturing jobs to this country, the debt would probably decline tremendously. We've lost manufacturing jobs to Mexico, India and China going back to the 80s.

In these low interest rate days, there's no easy money. My dad knew a dentist back in the late 70s/80s who taught at UofL. He walked into the bar they hung out at and announced he had taken out several 100k jumbo CDs that were paying him very, very high interest rates. It worked for him because he was older and apparently had little debt. It was easy money for him in that environment.

Property has been pretty good to me. I got lucky on my main house in Indiana that appreciated 2.5-3 times what I paid for it over a 15 year period. The new bridge in Louisville prompted this appreciation. I have done ok with rental/investment property, too. That would be my advice to a young person who wants to create wealth. Investment property, particularly getting in at the right price, is a solid strategy.
 

hoot1

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what do you say to Goat and COH that believe we can continuously finance and refinance infinitely (within reason)?

have we not created a society that is based upon welfare and handouts? Hard to see long term deficits change trajectory based on that approach. People always wants more and give less at all levels.

Our demographics are a mess and nothing can structurally address that problem.
Have we "created a society based upon welfare or handouts" or do we have a society which creates a need for welfare and handouts ?

Politicians and the people take sides on this question, and the demographics don't change except for one. The one being the gap between the rich and poor grows.
 

Sope Creek

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what do you say to Goat and COH that believe we can continuously finance and refinance infinitely (within reason)?

have we not created a society that is based upon welfare and handouts? Hard to see long term deficits change trajectory based on that approach. People always wants more and give less at all levels.

Our demographics are a mess and nothing can structurally address that problem.
I've always disagreed with CoH and Goat on the issue of continuous financing at ZIRP. Tax policy over the last 40 years has created a surfeit of capital . . . the world is awash in capital, and that's the only reason an investor would be willing to risk cash on negative real interest rate bonds and stocks that don't produce income . . .

. . . I would note that all the while the world has been engaging in this capital orgy the US - and the rest of the world, but especially the US - has run historically disproportionate budget deficits and loaded up on national debt. The fact is that we have transferred future earnings from future earners to present that wealth to current investors . . . the biggest transfer of wealth the world has ever seen. Those monies should have been used to pay current obligations and existing debt during good times, and to maintain a reserve to draw on during downturns.

The rest of your post is partisan pablum. If you're smart and disciplined enough, you'll figure it out. If not, you won't.
 

cosmickid

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Bullshit, that's the media feeding you that garbage. I've listened to his speech, he never ever said to burglarize the Capitol, break windows, etc. Personal responsibility is lost on the left, completely lost.
I realize I've responded to this post previously. But your ludicrous attempts to portray "leftists" as somehow singularly devoid of personal responsibility fly in the face of the reality that has emerged within the Trump Cult over the past 5 or so years...

Are you aware of the number of right wingnuts who have committed terrorist acts and then turned around and used the "Trump made me do it" defense at their trial?

Whether or not you agree over Trump's culpability, the fact is unlike both the Obama and Clinton administrations, during the Trump era both pro and anti-Trump people have committed crimes and then blamed Trump for their actions.

ABC reviewed cases filed in Federal and State courts as a result of criminal actions...

"But a nationwide review conducted by ABC News has identified at least 54 criminal cases where Trump was invoked in direct connection with violent acts, threats of violence or allegations of assault.

After a Latino gas station attendant in Gainesville, Florida, was suddenly punched in the head by a white man, the victim could be heard on surveillance camera recounting the attacker’s own words: “He said, ‘This is for Trump.'" Charges were filed but the victim stopped pursuing them.

When police questioned a Washington state man about his threats to kill a local Syrian-born man, the suspect told police he wanted the victim to "get out of my country," adding, "That’s why I like Trump."

Reviewing police reports and court records, ABC News found that in at least 12 cases perpetrators hailed Trump in the midst or immediate aftermath of physically assaulting innocent victims. In another 18 cases, perpetrators cheered or defended Trump while taunting or threatening others. And in another 10 cases, Trump and his rhetoric were cited in court to explain a defendant's violent or threatening behavior.


When three Kansas men were on trial for plotting to bomb a largely-Muslim apartment complex in Garden City, Kansas, one of their lawyers told the jury that the men "were concerned about what now-President Trump had to say about the concept of Islamic terrorism." Another lawyer insisted Trump had become "the voice of a lost and ignored white, working-class set of voters," and Trump's rhetoric meant someone "who would often be at a 7 during a normal day, might ‘go to 11.'"


Thirteen cases identified by ABC News involved violent or threatening acts perpetrated in defiance of Trump, with many of them targeting Trump's allies in Congress. But the vast majority of the cases – 41 of the 54 – reflect someone echoing presidential rhetoric, not protesting it."


Again my point is not to establish or disprove Trump's culpability. The point is to demonstrate how ridiculous your attempt to portray "leftists" as ignorant of personal responsibility is when there are just as many if not more examples of people on the Right displaying what you accuse leftists of doing...

If you can watch Jenna Ryan in action and not break out in incredulous derisive laughter, then you need to do some serious research into the term "hypocrisy"...

 

mainway_toys

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And you believe the bullshit you just typed. People like you are a big reason this country is on the brink of a total meltdown. You and your kind are slowly sucking the life out of this country.
People like me? You mean middle-aged taxpayers who want equality for everyone and better health insurance?
 

DANC

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People like me? You mean middle-aged taxpayers who want equality for everyone and better health insurance?
What have you done to promote equality, except to post on an internet board?

Whose health insurance, besides your own, have you paid for?
 
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TheOriginalHappyGoat

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what do you say to Goat and COH that believe we can continuously finance and refinance infinitely (within reason)?

have we not created a society that is based upon welfare and handouts? Hard to see long term deficits change trajectory based on that approach. People always wants more and give less at all levels.

Our demographics are a mess and nothing can structurally address that problem.
You're sort of hinting at the uncomfortable truth here. The truth is that it isn't unsustainable. It only looks that way because we dress it up as "borrowing from the future." But the truth is, it's just minimal redistribution that we can pretty well shrug off without much effort. We'll eventually shrug off even more redistribution. If we want to live in a society and not a post-apocalyptic movie film, we'll continue to give money to people and pay for it with production elsewhere, and we'll probably continue to call it "debt" or "obligations" or something to dress it up in a veneer comfortable to what we are used to, but it is what it is. We produce enough now to make sure everyone has at least a very minimum level of comfort, and we're going to find a way to make that happen, no matter what fictions we have to create to make it more palatable.
 

Lucy01

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Have we "created a society based upon welfare or handouts" or do we have a society which creates a need for welfare and handouts ?

Politicians and the people take sides on this question, and the demographics don't change except for one. The one being the gap between the rich and poor grows.
Why are poor people poor?
 
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Cortez88

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The OP is a good example of a typical Trumper. There’s no economic anxiety. He says he’s doing quite well financially. But then he gives the tell when he picks Biden’s aid to minority owned small businesses as the bee in his bonnet. What Trumpers are most pissed about is that the rest of us don’t get rip shit about cultural grievances. They simply can’t process the lack of anger and hatred.
 

Lucy01

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The OP is a good example of a typical Trumper. There’s no economic anxiety. He says he’s doing quite well financially. But then he gives the tell when he picks Biden’s aid to minority owned small businesses as the bee in his bonnet. What Trumpers are most pissed about is that the rest of us don’t get rip shit about cultural grievances. They simply can’t process the lack of anger and hatred.
That’s all the left cares about are cultural differences!
 
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