- Jun 28, 2015
I wouldn't put a ton of stock in this report which uses the antiquated CAPE ratio. If this SF Fed analyst was anything impressive, he'd be managing money.Timing as when a president takes office in terms of what happens to the economy and the stock market is everything. As with Herbert Hoover this might not be a fair way to appraise a president, but that is the way the cookie crumbles.
Old Joe Biden might not be as lucky, as say Clinton or Trump, according to experts looking at the next ten years in this report which in part states,
The U.S. stock market’s prospects over the next decade are dismal. That’s hardly news for value-focused advisers who have been sounding this alarm for several years now. What is new is the way in which one economist has reached this same conclusion.
More importantly, Robert Shiller, the famous Yale Prof that invented the CAPE, recently admitted that it is no longer effective in today's environment.
Making Sense of Sky-High Stock Prices | by Robert J. Shiller, Laurence Black and Farouk Jivraj - Project Syndicate
Many have been puzzled that the world’s stock markets haven’t collapsed in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic downturn it has wrought. But with interest rates low and likely to stay there, equities will continue to look attractive, particularly when compared to bonds.
Thus, the level of interest rates is an increasingly important element to consider when valuing equities. To capture these effects and compare investments in stocks versus bonds, we developed the ECY, which considers both equity valuation and interest-rate levels. To calculate the ECY, we simply invert the CAPE ratio to get a yield and then subtract the ten-year real interest rate.
This measure is somewhat like the equity market premium and is a useful way to consider the interplay of long-term valuations and interest rates. A higher measure indicates that equities are more attractive. The ECY in the US, for example, is 4%, derived from a CAPE yield of 3% and then subtracting a ten-year real interest rate of -1.0% (adjusted using the preceding ten years’ average inflation rate of 2%).
That being said, the overall concept isn't necessarily wrong considering inflation expectations for the next ten years are much lower than the previous ten years, which implies a lower expected return from assets.