Testing, testing . . . one, two, three . . . testing . . .

Discussion in 'The Water Cooler' started by Rockfish1, Mar 24, 2020.

  1. Rockfish1

    Rockfish1 Hall of Famer
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    There is frustration with the consequences of brute force social-distancing, because it's enormously difficult and disrupting. But every not-quack epidemiologist and economist says this is the thing to do, despite the harm it's causing. This is because we still lack the capacity to implement the widespread testing that would enable a more targeted approach. And having blown the chance for a more targeted approach, we're now doomed to a brute force approach, or according to reliable projections, the Coronavirus could kill more than 2 million of us.

    I don't understand how anyone could imagine that The Economy (a mystical being that in some minds exists separate and apart from the humans who actually buy, sell, provide, and do every single thing that constitutes The Economy) could possibly survive a pandemic that sent 2 million workers/consumers to a dirt nap. During a pandemic, any sensible economic policy starts with a sensible public health policy, because the public health problem won't go away. If we don't fix it, it will come back and we will still have a cratered economy, plus many more dead, and we'll just have to restart from an even more devastated position after we f#ck up.

    Everyone who wants to get the economy running again ought to be screaming for easy widespread and universal Coronavirus testing. We can't practicably quarantine the entire vulnerable population without causing a severe recession, even under the dumbest notion of what constitutes the vulnerable population. To target our responses we need data. Lots and lots of data. The data will tell us who is infected and where the hotspots are. Only the data can tell us when and where to put people back in contact with one another. If we don't get the data before we take people out of isolation, we're sending people to their deaths, and after enough people die and blow up the health care system, even the Trump supporters will figure this out. If we get the data we can quarantine only the infected people and send everyone else back to work. As we modulated efforts to get people back into economic circulation we could have a check on how and when and where to adjust for public safety without shutting down entire states or regions when the virus inevitably surges back.

    Otherwise it's all the stupid false choices that people have been discussing about how to sacrifice the old and vulnerable so the lean and mean will survive. Ugh. Why are people so eager for The Lord of the Flies? Have you no better imagination than that? Seeing good people thinking so small depresses me.

    But not only are we mobilizing no national effort to develop the data that could save both ourselves and our jobs, we're not even mobilizing to produce the ventilators that will keep people alive in the meantime. The virus is a natural disaster, but the unfolding of our incompetent response is a disaster of our own making. It's like no one in this modern age has ever heard of horses and barn doors.

    I wonder why that is.
     
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  2. INRanger27

    INRanger27 All-American
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    I would social distance until the next Halley’s Comet if it meant eradicating the virus AND not destroying our way of life. I don’t know if your post is directed at me or not but I’ll assume it is. Let me make my position abundantly clear: we cannot shutdown most of our economy and social distance in perpetuity. Because we’re not on full containment mode, given it’s impossibility, sooner or later we’ll have to figure out how to reopen. I’m not willing to accept an unemployment rate of 20-30%. I fear our republic would be in grave - no the gravest of - danger.

    If the virus does not die off as would a flu season, there will have to be a comprehensive and thorough risk mitigation plan that includes additional ICU capacity, additional medical capacity, testing bonanzas, etc. But we’ll have to open up.

    Of course you’re right that anybody simply saying “in two weeks we’ll have to reopen” is not a serious person. But after X number of weeks, risk mitigation has to become the plan over risk avoidance.
     
  3. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    Its a no-win situation for the WH as it opens up pandora boxes' of responsibilities, screwups and blames. So best not to take responsibility and federalise it and let the states handle it.
    Its a smart but albeit evil political plan.
     
  4. Rockfish1

    Rockfish1 Hall of Famer
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    I certainly didn't mean to call you out, and you should be confident that my respect and affection for you is genuine, longstanding, and very much still in existence. On this issue, though, I'm expressing the uncontroversial views of every expert I can find, and the view I'm criticizing sounds uncomfortably like it's coming from Buck Turgidson.

    We wouldn't need death panels if we got smarter.
     
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  5. INRanger27

    INRanger27 All-American
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    To your point, I don’t know of any expert that believes shutdown ad nauseum is sustainable from a reality and economic perspective.

    We can always be friends, as very few of us know who Buck Turgidson is.
     
  6. TheOriginalHappyGoat

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    Very few of us are as old as you two.

    I bet @Marvin the Martian knows who he is.
     
  7. INRanger27

    INRanger27 All-American
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    Lol. I’m actually not that old. I just love old movies.
     
  8. TheOriginalHappyGoat

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    Everyone who loves movies has to love old movies, since most of the really good movies are old now.
     
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  9. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    It takes on average 5 days for symptoms to show and 8 days from there to die, so roughly two weeks in total.

    Yesterday the US had ~163 deaths. Two weeks ago the US had 1200 cases. Two weeks after Italy had 1200 cases they had 175 deaths in a day. There is not a huge difference there.

    However, you look at it the US is facing the biggest challenge of any country so far. The case progression is almost twice that of anywhere else. Either it is spreading like absolute wildfire, or the population is already riddled with it and are now finding that out.

    Considering that only tested 0.1% of the population so far (eg. Italy at 0.5%, Korea 0.6%) it has a long way to go on either course.

    Trump's special day, Easter will most likely be done at home.
     
  10. Marvin the Martian

    Marvin the Martian Hall of Famer
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    "I wouldn't say we won't get our hair missed, but 10-20 million tops."

    Some of this reminds me too of Mao. When his generals worried about us using the bomb in Korea, he said China only had 5 or 6 cities. After we destroyed them, there would be nothing more we could do to China.
     
  11. Univee2

    Univee2 Hall of Famer
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    The man had some pretty damn impressive and precious bodily fluids ....

    And I'd advise you two that there's no fighting allowed in the War Room.
     
  12. i'vegotwinners

    i'vegotwinners All-American
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    the economy will survive 2 million deaths.

    how many deaths is an acceptable trade off for how much temporary inconvenience saved, defines one's humanity.
     
  13. VanPastorMan

    VanPastorMan Hall of Famer
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    I get a kick out of watching Abbott & Costello. This past Halloween I watched A & Co meet Frankenstein and became a kid again like when I watched it with my Dad. Channel 4 used to have all the old movies. Hope and Crosby was another series we enjoyed, along with the scary movies we watched on Sammy Terry.
     
  14. twenty02

    twenty02 Hall of Famer
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    Roughly 3m people die every year in the US..... the crossover from the number of people that die after contracting COVID19 and those that would have otherwise died regardless of this novel virus is impossible to know right now. But it surely seems highly probable that it's not going to be a marginal increase of 2m people.... in this hypothetical.

    30k Americans have died from the flu this year. 60k died from it a couple years back. I imagine if we see in the news that 50k die from COVID people will lose their minds.


    What we really need is vast and wide antibody testing to get a grasp on how many people have actually been exposed to this. Right now you are only getting tested if you are meeting fairly high parameters of moderate to severe illness. So selection bias is a serious problem. Everyone continues to fly blindfolded.
     
    14 twenty02, Mar 25, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
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  15. UncleMark

    UncleMark Hall of Famer
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    Just spitballing here, but if that could be done quickly, might it not allow determining if you're recovered, and therefore no longer at risk (immune)? And as long as you're not a carrier, couldn't you then be able to rejoin society?
     
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  16. twenty02

    twenty02 Hall of Famer
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    Yes most certainly. Seems the UK is going down this road of blasting them out within days.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days

    Expect to see a lot more discussion of this in coming days.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-immune-test-insigh-idUSKBN21C1KK
     
    16 twenty02, Mar 25, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
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  17. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    To your point, some labs are only reporting the positive results and omitting the negatives. With testing still limited to mostly sick people, I had read that 1/9 or 1/10 were positive for CV.

    IMO, if one or more of the therapeutic approaches shows promise on scale, Trump's Easter goal becomes very reasonable.
     
  18. thezinfan1

    thezinfan1 Freshman
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    In WA state, through 3/23, we had 34k tests, 2200 positive, or about 1/15. This IS NOT wide spread random testing though.
     
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  19. Bill4411

    Bill4411 All-American
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    Just for a point of information: Italy's death rate is currently over 10% of those who have been diagnosed with the disease. Carry on.
     
  20. i'vegotwinners

    i'vegotwinners All-American
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    we need a cure for cancer too. and addiction.

    railing we need tests and respirators and ventilators and surgical grade masks is political theater.

    that said, i have my wish list too..

    without a manufacturing base, wishing and begging are what we can do.

    what's sad, is after this is over, nothing manufacture wise is going to be repatriated. (even drugs).

    the down side of capitalism won't allow it. (not that there isn't a necessary up side, but every yr the down side gains share).
     
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  21. thezinfan1

    thezinfan1 Freshman
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    It was 8% a week ago, so still creeping up.
     
  22. hoot1

    hoot1 Hall of Famer
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    Hillz, how about this...Trump's Easter forecast may be reasonable subject to further day by day review.
     
  23. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    Of course.
     
  24. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    That hasn't materialized in the US or anywhere else I'm aware of.
     
  25. thezinfan1

    thezinfan1 Freshman
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    Washington state is holding around 5% (deaths/positives).
     
  26. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    I wonder how many deaths/negative result.
     
  27. thezinfan1

    thezinfan1 Freshman
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    as of 3/23 data so its all consistent
    34k tests/2200pos/31800neg/ 120 deaths
     
  28. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    What I'd be interested to know is how many people who were sick enough to get a test have died of their illness despite testing negative for CV. I'm hung up on the message being broadcast that we are all going to get CV and millions will die even when Cuomo says +/-80% of those who catch CV19 will recover unassisted. My governor issues a stay at home mandate which exempts most of the population as essential workers. OTOH, I have many friends who are business owners whose incomes have been reduced to zero as a result.

    The fatality rate is a number which is of grave importance, npi. It would be nice if we could get real estimates instead of being bombarded by worst-case scenarios.
     
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  29. TheOriginalHappyGoat

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    As I understand it, the current tests will not return a positive unless the virus is currently active in your system. If you have been infected, and since recovered, it will return a negative.
     
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  30. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    Or not?
     
  31. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    There will be a critical tipping point -- where the healthcare infra is just overwhelmed. The US of all the developed nations have the lowest number of ICU beds and one of the fewest ventilators/million.
    The difference in most diseases, most patients in ICUs will use a ventilator on the average of two days.
    With Covid, they have found that patients are on the ventilator an average of 10 days.

    Beds and breathers will be in short supply and then you see the Italy situation -- where the fatality rates become disproportional.
     
  32. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    Covid-19 self-test could allow return to work, say health officials
    NHS England medical director tells MPs tests may be available within a couple of weeks

    Mologic has produced the first prototypes of an antibody test for Covid-19, building on its experience of developing a rapid test kit for Ebola. Assessment and validation of the test began this week at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and St George’s, University of London.

    The company said it would take three to four months before the test is available in the UK and other countries. It will cost £1 in the UK and will be as simple to use as a home pregnancy test but will use saliva or blood rather than urine, with results ready in 10 minutes.
     

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