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Russia-Ukraine war has begun



Are you a lip reader of Russian?
Vladimir Putin's recent meeting with General Valery Gerasimov appears to be an acknowledgment of miscalculations in the Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine, indicating a need for a reevaluation of strategy as the situation grows increasingly complex. This move suggests that Putin might be seeking ways to mitigate the consequences of the ongoing conflict and find a path forward amid rising challenges.
 
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Vladimir Putin's recent meeting with General Valery Gerasimov appears to be an acknowledgment of miscalculations in the Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine, indicating a need for a reevaluation of strategy as the situation grows increasingly complex. This move suggests that Putin might be seeking ways to mitigate the consequences of the ongoing conflict and find a path forward amid rising challenges.
'miscalculation's' = getting their ass kicked.

If he's smart, he'll declare the de-Nazification of Ukraine a success, call the SMO a success, and withdraw troops from Donbas and eastern Ukraine in exchange for Ukes withdrawing from Russian territory.

But that still leaves Crimea, and I think Zelensky has the bit in his mouth and wants the Russians out of there, too.

But the Ukrainians are in a helluva lot better negotiating position than they were a month ago. Slava Ukraina!
 
Vladimir Putin's recent meeting with General Valery Gerasimov appears to be an acknowledgment of miscalculations in the Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine, indicating a need for a reevaluation of strategy as the situation grows increasingly complex. This move suggests that Putin might be seeking ways to mitigate the consequences of the ongoing conflict and find a path forward amid rising challenges.

The one thing that both the Ukrainians and we should do well to remember is the no matter what happens Putin is historically a "get even" kind of guy... We'll need to be wary of what that joker might set up to be pulled all the way up to a couple of years after his death, in my opinion...
 
ISW has a lengthy analysis of the Belorussian maneuvers … too long to quote it all …

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-26-2024

Ukraine issued a warning to Belarus amid the recent buildup of Belarusian forces at the Ukrainian border in Belarus' Gomel Oblast. Ukrainian intelligence services reported on August 25 that Belarus amassed forces in Gomel Oblast (which shares a border with northern Ukraine) and has deployed a significant number of personnel, including special operations forces (likely in reference to Spetsnaz units), weapons, military equipment, and fighters from the former Wagner Group.[10] The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) reported on August 25 that the Belarusian forces deployed under the pretext of a military exercise near the border with Ukraine and are particularly close to the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, which raises security concerns for Ukraine.[11] A Belarusian milblogger claimed on August 25 that the Ukrainian reports were correct and confirmed that Belarusian forces are amassing at the border.[12] The Ukrainian MFA urged Belarus to withdraw its troops from the border and warned that any violation of the Ukrainian state border would prompt Ukraine to take necessary defensive measures in accordance with international law.[13] The Ukrainian MFA also cautioned Belarus against succumbing to Russian pressure and supporting Russia’s war efforts against Ukraine. Ukraine's State Border Service Spokesperson Andriy Demchenko announced on August 26 that Ukrainian forces are fortifying the border area with Belarus in response.[14]

The current Belarusian build-up along the Ukrainian border is likely intended to divert and stretch Ukrainian forces along a wider frontline, as ISW continues to assess that Belarusian forces remain unlikely to invade Ukraine due to constraints facing Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. An analysis by Ukraine-based open-source intelligence organization Frontelligence Insight and Rochan Consulting suggests that Belarusian combat units typically operate at only 30 to 40 percent of their total end strength and rely on mobilization to staff units, indicating that serious preparations for a major Belarusian invasion of Ukraine would be more apparent as Belarus has not announced general mobilization.

ISW suggests that Lukashenko needs to avoid civil unrest that an invasion would unleash and needs an intact military to secure his 2024 reelection
 
I don't have a link (been driving all day), but heard on the news the head of Ukaine's Air Force was fired over this and there's a big investigation about the crash. Sound like it was maybe an unauthorized flight? In any event, it doesn't appear the plane crashed because of Russian action - at least I haven't read anything about that. Just that it crashed.
 
I don't have a link (been driving all day), but heard on the news the head of Ukaine's Air Force was fired over this and there's a big investigation about the crash. Sound like it was maybe an unauthorized flight? In any event, it doesn't appear the plane crashed because of Russian action - at least I haven't read anything about that. Just that it crashed.
Today I heard the F16 might have been downed by friendly fire. And that the replacing of the Air Force head didn't have anything to do with the crash, but was a normal rotation.

Not sure what you can believe in this war.
 
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Today I heard the F16 might have been downed by friendly fire. And that the replacing of the Air Force head didn't have anything to do with the crash, but was a normal rotation.

Not sure what you can believe in this war.
I think the battle in Kursk is about to slide into inactivity
 
It looks like AFU moved south yesterday and are working to encircle Giri. It'd be great to see them make it over to hwy E105 and cut off that supply route.
I don’t think the Ukrainians will invest more resources in Kursk because it has served its purpose of requiring the Russians to react
 
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