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Russia-Ukraine war has begun

manichi said:
Eh, your premise presupposes countries like Vietnam and Afghanistan being cozy little western-leaning allies if only we had finished the job.

You could say we finished the job, at enormous expense, in Iraq and still don’t have anything close to what we wanted.

Folks have wisened up.
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Because most folks do not take a long-term view. They want short-term results, which is why they get bored about hearing about events. Just like I said earlier.

And we do have what we wanted in Iraq - Saddam out and we have bases in Iraq to counter Iran.
 
DANC said:
Because most folks do not take a long-term view. They want short-term results, which is why they get bored about hearing about events. Just like I said earlier.

And we do have what we wanted in Iraq - Saddam out and we have bases in Iraq to counter Iran.
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Looks like we are losing those bases, Iraq wants us out over our self defense strikes.

Institute for the Study of War

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani announced that his administration will begin procedures to remove International Coalition forces from Iraq during a press conference on December 28, likely due to pressure from Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org
 
Aloha Hoosier said:
Russian air superiority about to end:

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Anxious to see how they use them. I don't foresee it being an immediate drastic change, but if they add 10-20% to daily kill #'s then wonderful. I hope we hear more about F-16 successes than the Abrams. I hear nothing of those.
 
Marvin the Martian said:
Looks like we are losing those bases, Iraq wants us out over our self defense strikes.

Institute for the Study of War

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani announced that his administration will begin procedures to remove International Coalition forces from Iraq during a press conference on December 28, likely due to pressure from Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org
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Yeah, I don't think that's going to happen. That's for internal consumption.

Without us there, the Iranians really will control Iraq.
 
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DANC said:
Yeah, I don't think that's going to happen. That's for internal consumption.

Without us there, the Iranians really will control Iraq.
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There are a lot of Shia in Iraq that may well welcome that.

I agree they are playing a political game here though. But I fear it may become more
 
Marvin the Martian said:
There are a lot of Shia in Iraq that may well welcome that.

I agree they are playing a political game here though. But I fear it may become more
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Anything is possible over there, especially if we get weak-kneed when dealing with Iran.

I guess there's no 'if' about it now.
 
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Marvin the Martian said:
With 8 Russian jets recently downed, speculation is the F16s are flying.

www.newsweek.com

Ukraine F-16 speculation mounts as Russia loses 8 fighter jets in 3 weeks

Ukraine has scored several high-profile victories against Russian aircraft in recent weeks and damaged a large landing ship in Crimea on Tuesday.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
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Looks like Ukraine is striking back inside Russia.

www.theguardian.com

Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 676

Russia launches overnight air assault targeting Kyiv, Ukraine says; Moscow reports 21 dead dozens after shelling of Ukrainian strike on Belgorod
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

  • Ukraine carried out a series of strikes on the Russian border city of Belgorod, the day after an 18-hour aerial barrage across Ukraine killed at least 41 civilians. Russian officials said the shelling in the centre of Belgorod on Saturday killed 21 people, including three children, and injured 110 more. Ukrainian media – citing law enforcement agencies – said the attacks only hit military targets and were retaliation for Friday’s mass bombardment of Ukrainian cities.
  • The Belgorod attack came a day after Ukraine said a barrage of Russian missile strikes on several cities killed at least 40 people, wounding dozens more.
  • Russia experienced a sharp rise in the number of killed and wounded troops in 2023, due to “degradation” of military quality, according to the UK’s Ministry of Defence.
  • In its daily intelligence briefing, the MoD said the average daily number of Russian casualties (killed and wounded) had risen by almost 300 a day compared with 2022. “The increase in daily averages, as reported by the Ukrainian authorities, almost certainly reflects the degradation of Russia’s forces and its transition to a lower quality, high quantity mass army since the ‘partial mobilisation’ of reservists in September 2022.”
 
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Marvin the Martian said:
I am curious what you would call two wars against Georgia resulting in Abkhezia and South Ossetia moving into the Russian sphere, the annexation of Crimea followed by another war to annex parts/all of 4 more Ukrainian oblasts. If multiple wars over decades seizing multiple areas isn't domino theory, what name do you have for it?
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I didn't see an answer to this, but I forgot the Russians occupied part of Moldova as well, and threaten the remainder. Russia has taken parts of Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine (multiple times) but it isn't domino theory? From ISW:

Russia continues to set information conditions aimed at destabilizing Moldova by framing Russia as a protector of allegedly threatened Russian-language speakers in Moldova. Russian state news wire TASS reported on December 27 that 19.1 percent of school children in Moldova choose to receive educational instruction in the Russian language.[20] TASS claimed that the Moldovan government’s refusal to recognize Russian as a state language in 1989 led to the war in Transnistria and the conflict with Gagauzia.[21] TASS further claimed that the ruling pro-European Moldovan Party of Action and Solidarity is exacerbating these alleged long-standing language divides by failing to grant Russian language the status of "a language of interethnic communication.”[22] Russian forces have occupied Transnistria since 1992, and Russia has continually supported pro-Russian actors in Moldova to promote political instability and division.[23] Claims that the Party of Action and Solidarity is threating Russian speakers in Moldova allow Russia to frame any potential Russian support for pro-Kremlin actors in Moldova as a humanitarian attempt to protect Russian speakers instead of an attempt to politically destabilize Moldova itself. The Kremlin used exactly this line of argument as one of the bases for its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[24] Russia is likely attempting to justify any future actions in Moldova as an attempt to protect its “compatriots abroad,” a term that Russia has broadly defined to mean ethnic Russians and Russian speakers outside of Russia regardless of their citizenship. Russia continues to justify its invasion of Ukraine, in part, by claiming Russia is protecting its “compatriots” in Ukraine and their right to use Russian language and will likely continue to use this narrative when discussing any future Russian attempts at imperial reconquests.[25]​
 
Marvin the Martian said:
I didn't see an answer to this, but I forgot the Russians occupied part of Moldova as well, and threaten the remainder. Russia has taken parts of Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine (multiple times) but it isn't domino theory? From ISW:

Russia continues to set information conditions aimed at destabilizing Moldova by framing Russia as a protector of allegedly threatened Russian-language speakers in Moldova. Russian state news wire TASS reported on December 27 that 19.1 percent of school children in Moldova choose to receive educational instruction in the Russian language.[20] TASS claimed that the Moldovan government’s refusal to recognize Russian as a state language in 1989 led to the war in Transnistria and the conflict with Gagauzia.[21] TASS further claimed that the ruling pro-European Moldovan Party of Action and Solidarity is exacerbating these alleged long-standing language divides by failing to grant Russian language the status of "a language of interethnic communication.”[22] Russian forces have occupied Transnistria since 1992, and Russia has continually supported pro-Russian actors in Moldova to promote political instability and division.[23] Claims that the Party of Action and Solidarity is threating Russian speakers in Moldova allow Russia to frame any potential Russian support for pro-Kremlin actors in Moldova as a humanitarian attempt to protect Russian speakers instead of an attempt to politically destabilize Moldova itself. The Kremlin used exactly this line of argument as one of the bases for its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[24] Russia is likely attempting to justify any future actions in Moldova as an attempt to protect its “compatriots abroad,” a term that Russia has broadly defined to mean ethnic Russians and Russian speakers outside of Russia regardless of their citizenship. Russia continues to justify its invasion of Ukraine, in part, by claiming Russia is protecting its “compatriots” in Ukraine and their right to use Russian language and will likely continue to use this narrative when discussing any future Russian attempts at imperial reconquests.[25]​
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Likely there are some dominoes that would fall. To me that isn't the question, the real question is where do you believe it is unacceptable for a particular domino to fall and how deep is your belief?

For the Moldovans, I think it is a political reality that they are an acceptable unacceptable domino. What that looks like in practice is no military intervention and no military aid. The Russians get economic and diplomatic penalties for their bad behavior and life goes on. Ukraine is a slightly unacceptable domino. You don't put boots on the ground, you do provide military aid, but you are open to diplomatic negotiations to try and resolve if military aims by your proxy prove fruitless. Countries in NATO you have drawn the red line on. They are all extremely unacceptable dominoes that require direct military intervention if attacked.

The fact of the matter is that Russia and China are likely to continue to keep pushing to see what they can get away with. It would behoove "The West" and its allies around the world to have some pretty clear lines they have agreed to among themselves (and not really shared publically) where those unacceptable lines are and what each one means. Red is a spectrum. What is a red line for Poland isn't what is red for Moldova.
 
Marvin the Martian said:
I didn't see an answer to this, but I forgot the Russians occupied part of Moldova as well, and threaten the remainder. Russia has taken parts of Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine (multiple times) but it isn't domino theory? From ISW:

Russia continues to set information conditions aimed at destabilizing Moldova by framing Russia as a protector of allegedly threatened Russian-language speakers in Moldova. Russian state news wire TASS reported on December 27 that 19.1 percent of school children in Moldova choose to receive educational instruction in the Russian language.[20] TASS claimed that the Moldovan government’s refusal to recognize Russian as a state language in 1989 led to the war in Transnistria and the conflict with Gagauzia.[21] TASS further claimed that the ruling pro-European Moldovan Party of Action and Solidarity is exacerbating these alleged long-standing language divides by failing to grant Russian language the status of "a language of interethnic communication.”[22] Russian forces have occupied Transnistria since 1992, and Russia has continually supported pro-Russian actors in Moldova to promote political instability and division.[23] Claims that the Party of Action and Solidarity is threating Russian speakers in Moldova allow Russia to frame any potential Russian support for pro-Kremlin actors in Moldova as a humanitarian attempt to protect Russian speakers instead of an attempt to politically destabilize Moldova itself. The Kremlin used exactly this line of argument as one of the bases for its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[24] Russia is likely attempting to justify any future actions in Moldova as an attempt to protect its “compatriots abroad,” a term that Russia has broadly defined to mean ethnic Russians and Russian speakers outside of Russia regardless of their citizenship. Russia continues to justify its invasion of Ukraine, in part, by claiming Russia is protecting its “compatriots” in Ukraine and their right to use Russian language and will likely continue to use this narrative when discussing any future Russian attempts at imperial reconquests.[25]​
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Right out of the Nazi playbook.
 
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Ukraine destroys the very latest new $250,000,000 toy that Russia just rolled out to play war TODAY. It was designed to detect and destroy missile/ rocket/ artillery systems of the enemy. It seems that it successfully detected 2 and destroyed both of them in a selfless act of heroism.

 
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Joe_Hoopsier said:
We can still hope though! If true, then the ground level intel game seems to be gaining traction! Slava Ukraine.
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IF it is true, the Russians have a major breach. I doubt he flew in preceded by a major announcement, it was probably need to know.

Someone high up either is working with Ukraine, or wanted a shortcut for their career path.
 
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Marvin the Martian said:
IF it is true, the Russians have a major breach. I doubt he flew in preceded by a major announcement, it was probably need to know.

Someone high up either is working with Ukraine, or wanted a shortcut for their career path.
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I was only thinking of civilian's providing the intel but your option is probably just as, or even more possible. I love when the rats start to eat their own and Russia is a great place for a buffet.
 
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wlgjw7rodkac1.jpeg
 
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Marvin the Martian said:
It appears a Ukrainian went 900 miles into Russia and burned up an SU-34.

www.forbes.com

A Ukrainian Saboteur Traveled 900 Miles to A Snowy Russian Airfield And, In The Dead Of Night, Lit A Russian Sukhoi Fighter-Bomber On Fire

A Ukrainian agent slipped into Russia, traveled 900 miles to Chelyabinsk air base, sneaked onto the tarmac at night and lit a fire on a Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
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Seems like it would be relatively simple for Ukrainians to stroll across the border and blend in. Likewise Russians into Ukraine.

Could get even more messy than it is now.
 
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DANC said:
Seems like it would be relatively simple for Ukrainians to stroll across the border and blend in. Likewise Russians into Ukraine.

Could get even more messy than it is now.
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I have wondered for months why Ukrainians haven't walked in and damaged Moscow power sources.
 
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IUINSB said:
I have wondered for months why Ukrainians haven't walked in and damaged Moscow power sources.
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Russia isn’t an easy country for saboteurs/ terrorists to operate in.

Not an expert on everything that goes into this index but pretty interesting where they rank considering their size, cultural diversity, antagonistic relationship w neighbors, effed up internal politics. I think part of the Russian “social contract” is that you trade a lot of liberty for protection from western infiltrators, real and imagined.

www.visionofhumanity.org

Global Terrorism Index | Countries most impacted by terrorism

The Global Terrorism Index measures the impact of terrorism and provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends in terrorism.
www.visionofhumanity.org www.visionofhumanity.org
 
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Marvin the Martian said:
There gets to be one inescapable conclusion, for many dying in Ukraine is preferable to living in Russia.
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Serious ? - haven't the Russians long been a force only because of numbers? I always get the sense, in learning about WWII, for example but not exclusively, that the Russians have inferior tactics and battle sense and have less of an issue sacrificing their own to prove a point than most other armies. Am I off base?
 
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JamieDimonsBalls said:
Serious ? - haven't the Russians long been a force only because of numbers? I always get the sense, in learning about WWII, for example but not exclusively, that the Russians have inferior tactics and battle sense and have less of an issue sacrificing their own to prove a point than most other armies. Am I off base?
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You are right, and that is happening now. Replacements are barely trained and casualty rates are high.

But WWII was a matter of survival, the Germans had no issues with exterminating or evicting massive numbers of Russians. We suffered many more casualties in WWII than in Vietnam, Korea, or Afghanistan. But we gave out in those because we weren't willing to sustain those casualties when we were not threatened.

Ukraine isn't an existential threat. The willingness to die so that some of Donetsk Oblast are happier is a more difficult sale.
 
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Marvin the Martian said:
You are right, and that is happening now. Replacements are barely trained and casualty rates are high.

But WWII was a matter of survival, the Germans had no issues with exterminating or evicting massive numbers of Russians. We suffered many more casualties in WWII than in Vietnam, Korea, or Afghanistan. But we gave out in those because we weren't willing to sustain those casualties when we were not threatened.

Ukraine isn't an existential threat. The willingness to die so that some of Donetsk Oblast are happier is a more difficult sale.
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RIght, but generally speaking, it just seems like the Russians have some interesting technology (at least they did up until the collapse of the USSR and even still, have some formidable stuff) and they obviously have the resources to compete, but militarily / operationally, they are poorly trained, unorganized and mediocre, at best, in the field.
 
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JamieDimonsBalls said:
RIght, but generally speaking, it just seems like the Russians have some interesting technology (at least they did up until the collapse of the USSR and even still, have some formidable stuff) and they obviously have the resources to compete, but militarily / operationally, they are poorly trained, unorganized and mediocre, at best, in the field.
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We tended to overvalue much of their tech, but some of it was quite good. An example was the Fulcrum fighter. I can't find the article, but when the USSR fell we got our hands on several. At first, our pilots were unimpressed, it lacked a lot of our modernity. For example, no GPS whatsoever. The pilots had to carry paper maps. Our pilots were pretty hard on it until they tested it in dogfighting against American jets. At lower altitudes, our pilots preferred it to our planes as it was more maneuverable. The Israelis came to the same conclusion. The other huge benefit that we still completely ignore, it turned out that pretty much anyone with a wrench and screwdriver could keep it flying.

I love our equipment but somehow we have failed to learn from the German Tiger tank. It was a wonderful tank, for the 15 minutes it ran before needing servicing. The Tiger had to be started and ran every 2 hours (it was true and strangely accurately depicted in Kelly's Heroes). Alfred Rubble served in Germany's 503 Tiger Battalion and wrote a book on the 503 after the war said in that book that for every hour it ran, it required 10 hours of service. I suspect that is an exaggeration, but even a 1-1 ratio would be very bad.
 
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There is a story of hundreds of destroyed Russian armored vehicles seen on satellite around Avdiivka. Which dovetails with this one that Russia may run out of IFVs in 2 years even with their enhanced production.

www.forbes.com

The Russians Could Run Out Of Infantry Fighting Vehicles In Two Or Three Years

Analyst Andrew Perpetua on Monday counted a dozen destroyed, damaged and abandoned BMPs in a single day. That points to a monthly loss of no fewer than 300 BMPs.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
 
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