It now appears Ukraine's artillery is firing on targets inside Russia. I get the urge to disrupt command and control as well as supply, but I worry it will boost Russian enthusiasm for the war.
Russia-Ukraine war has begun
- Thread starter TheOriginalHappyGoat
- Start date
“Around 450 bodies were exhumed from a mass grave close to Kharkiv, some of the victims were found with their hands tied behind their back”
This is not a knock on you, but I don't get this fear of pissing Russia off.
Yeah, it might fire some people up, but what are they going to do about it? They've already got their ass kicked and are on the defensive. What is making them more mad going to do?
If he declares war, then he has to put the country on a war footing and people have already heard what a disaster it is. I think he knows if he admits he has to go full Zhukov on Ukraine, there may be many more anti-war dissidents and the military itself might rebel.
He might also fear if he declares a war, NATO could justify bringing in air power, and he wants nothing to do with that.
By declaring war, he would be admitting his military can't handle a smaller country and he would lose face. A coup then would be a real possibility.
Russia moves to formally annex swathes of Ukraine — Reuters
Russia on Tuesday paved the way for the formal annexation of swathes of Ukrainian territory, backing referendum plans in areas of Ukraine its soldiers control in a direct challenge to the West that could sharply escalate the war.
Nobody will believe the vote is on the up and up if it goes Russia's way. Frankly, they are being pressed to hold the land militarily. Given the mass graves being found, I don't think the Ukrainians will be of a mind to accept a political solution at the moment when they appear to be winning.
Russia moves to formally annex swathes of Ukraine — Reuters
Russia on Tuesday paved the way for the formal annexation of swathes of Ukrainian territory, backing referendum plans in areas of Ukraine its soldiers control in a direct challenge to the West that could sharply escalate the war.apple.news
I look at it from my POV. If the U.S. was invaded by say the Chinese and we found mass graves of American civilians as we started to turn the war, I wouldn't accept a political solution that did not include a complete return of all our territory and the complete surrender of their Army and in the meantime I would probably take great joy in killing as many of their soldiers as were put in front of us until they were ready to surrender.
Existential wars hit differently. We have not had one of those since WW2. I hope the Ukrainians continue to pour it on.
Does Russia still have any supporters in Ukraine? They did prior to the special operation but I wonder if there is any enthusiasm for the me now even by ethnic Russians?Russia moves to formally annex swathes of Ukraine — Reuters
Russia on Tuesday paved the way for the formal annexation of swathes of Ukrainian territory, backing referendum plans in areas of Ukraine its soldiers control in a direct challenge to the West that could sharply escalate the war.
I am sure they have some still. That won't mean much if they can't hold the territory militarily though.
I guess Russia will have to fully mobilize to even take a crack at this "partition and harass" strategy that started in Georgia and Crimea. Even then, can they overcome the Ukrainians with western support? Europe seems pretty serious about keeping the pressure up and the US is in cold warrior mode. the small cracks in NATO are being mended. Erdogan and Modi are both talking down to Putin as much as they ever do.
bigger picture, interesting message this war must be sending to the world at large, including the US and China: 1) with Ukraine as an example, China cannot at this time dream of taking Taiwan. end of story. all the ifs and buts have been put off for another 10 years at least. it's impossible to think they could survive the US navy, land, and defeat native forces, and then create a stable political entity. no way. 2) the US can still probably topple plenty of medium size countries but invasion for the purpose of regime change is also now a lost art. can't be done, especially if that state has a capable sponsor.
let's help get Ukraine a great friggin deal and then everyone can put the big guns down for awhile.
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anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa
Guest
Meh that’s a bit pacifist for me. I’d let the citizenry within artillery range of the border know that legitimate military targets inside of Russian lands will be fired upon until all Russian forces have left Ukraine.
Lots of people worried about the consequences of these sham referenda.
www.theguardian.com
Four occupied Ukraine regions plan imminent ‘votes’ on joining Russia
‘Referendum’ announcements in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson may indicate move to annex territories
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anon_6hv78pr714xta
Guest
Take nukes out of the equation. How long would it take the U.S. military to seize Moscow? A few months, tops?
Maybe the Russians already realized this. (I did not.) What does that do to their military strategy in the future--what type of weapons, training, diplomacy, etc.?
I think this whole invasion and Ukrainian response is going to turn even more attention in the U.S. "deep state" towards China as our #1 global competitor and threat. I'm not saying that's a good thing--I just think these events are going to have a very important effect on U.S. focus going forward.
Russia is calling up 300,000 reserves. Assuming all are used in Ukraine, this is a 150% increase. Ukraine has no effective counter. Barring a lot of foreigners wanting to go, Ukraine is tapped out.
On the more positive side, those 300,000 are mostly leaving jobs. This is bound to impact the Russian economy. Chances are their morale will not be the best, they were quite probably happy to be civilians or they would have volunteered. Also Russia will struggle to supply them. Yes, undoubtedly many will be working in supply the fact is Russia has had a shortage of dependable trucks and equipment. The Russian army isn't built to survive on supplies hand carried like the North Vietnamese Army was.
On the more positive side, those 300,000 are mostly leaving jobs. This is bound to impact the Russian economy. Chances are their morale will not be the best, they were quite probably happy to be civilians or they would have volunteered. Also Russia will struggle to supply them. Yes, undoubtedly many will be working in supply the fact is Russia has had a shortage of dependable trucks and equipment. The Russian army isn't built to survive on supplies hand carried like the North Vietnamese Army was.
They are just meat for the grinder. It will take them awhile to get them equipped, "trained", and to the battlefield. In the meantime, the Ukrainians are continuing to gobble up ground, seize weapons from the Russians that are left on the battlefield, and receive better western weapons systems.
The Ukrainians have time that the Russians don't. They can resupply from the west, Russia has been cut off from the supply chain they need to deploy advanced weapons systems. The Ukrainians are defending their home, the Russians are invaders. Winter is coming, with it will come cold and sickness to guys on the front lines. The Russians won't be deploying committed volunteers, they will have Ivans pulled off the street who have no desire to be there fighting people who are basically their linguistic and cultural cousins who will be offering them a warm place to stay and a chance to go home to their parents. That isn't a recipe for success.
I have no idea what Russia will do, but here is my thinking. Fall mud is nearly here, while not nearly as bad as spring mud, it will greatly slow offensives. Then comes winter, then spring mud, all also hamper offensives. I leave the troops in Ukraine there and count on them holding with aid from the weather. That gives Russia 6 months to call up these reserves and train them and then deploy them. They are reservists, they are at least partially trained already. I probably station them to train close enough that they are a threat, so Ukraine has to keep its defenses up. But far enough back that they are outside range of artillery. Maybe 75 miles.
That means that come April Ukraine will be fighting against 300,000 more men. Many Ukrainian troops haven't been out of the front lines since this began. By April their psyche can't be good.
I am decidedly NOT saying this is the end for Ukraine, As long as China refuses to sell to Russia, Russia's arms shortages will get worse and not better. Though there are some weapons we are running out of and do not believe we can give more of to Ukraine (Javelin's top that list). France's Caeser illustrates the problem, the French have given Ukraine 1/4 of their total inventory of these 155s. It takes 18 months to build one, how many more can France give?
In WWII, 40% of US medical discharges were from combat fatigue, see link below. That's huge. The question for Ukraine is when does it become a problem for them.
Combat Fatigue: How Stress in Battle was Felt (and Treated) in WWII
We knew little about combat fatigue in WWII, yet more than 504,000 troops were lost due to what we now know as PTSD.
warfarehistorynetwork.com
From that link:
The 1946 Combat Exhaustion report concluded, “Psychiatric casualties are as inevitable as gunshot and shrapnel wounds…. The general consensus was that a man reached his peak of effectiveness in the first 90 days of combat, and that after that his efficiency began to fall off, and that he became steadily less valuable thereafter, until he was completely useless.”
I am saying this presents a massive challenge for Ukraine. 300,000 is a lot of fresh troops to commit, whenever they get committed, while Ukraine has no fresh troops to commit. If the reserves are brought in piecemeal now, they can help stabilize but that will reduce their offensive capability. If they are held until the summer campaign season, Russia may lose a decent amount of ground but will have the ability to launch a major offensive to gain the south or toward Kyiv.Well, it's a 150% increase from what they started with. There ain't that many anymore.
What good will another 100,000 be if they can't get supplied and armed properly?
Cannon fodder, and they'll soon realize it.
It's not like Ukranian troops don't get leave.I have no idea what Russia will do, but here is my thinking. Fall mud is nearly here, while not nearly as bad as spring mud, it will greatly slow offensives. Then comes winter, then spring mud, all also hamper offensives. I leave the troops in Ukraine there and count on them holding with aid from the weather. That gives Russia 6 months to call up these reserves and train them and then deploy them. They are reservists, they are at least partially trained already. I probably station them to train close enough that they are a threat, so Ukraine has to keep its defenses up. But far enough back that they are outside range of artillery. Maybe 75 miles.
That means that come April Ukraine will be fighting against 300,000 more men. Many Ukrainian troops haven't been out of the front lines since this began. By April their psyche can't be good.
I am decidedly NOT saying this is the end for Ukraine, As long as China refuses to sell to Russia, Russia's arms shortages will get worse and not better. Though there are some weapons we are running out of and do not believe we can give more of to Ukraine (Javelin's top that list). France's Caeser illustrates the problem, the French have given Ukraine 1/4 of their total inventory of these 155s. It takes 18 months to build one, how many more can France give?
In WWII, 40% of US medical discharges were from combat fatigue, see link below. That's huge. The question for Ukraine is when does it become a problem for them.
Combat Fatigue: How Stress in Battle was Felt (and Treated) in WWII
We knew little about combat fatigue in WWII, yet more than 504,000 troops were lost due to what we now know as PTSD.
From that link:
The 1946 Combat Exhaustion report concluded, “Psychiatric casualties are as inevitable as gunshot and shrapnel wounds…. The general consensus was that a man reached his peak of effectiveness in the first 90 days of combat, and that after that his efficiency began to fall off, and that he became steadily less valuable thereafter, until he was completely useless.”I am saying this presents a massive challenge for Ukraine. 300,000 is a lot of fresh troops to commit, whenever they get committed, while Ukraine has no fresh troops to commit. If the reserves are brought in piecemeal now, they can help stabilize but that will reduce their offensive capability. If they are held until the summer campaign season, Russia may lose a decent amount of ground but will have the ability to launch a major offensive to gain the south or toward Kyiv.
There's a big difference between going home for a couple weeks and being an ocean away for a year or more.
No doubt there is psychological strain on Ukranian troops. But they are as motivated as any warriors have been in any war. They are fighting for their families - not just their nation.
I'm not sure what evidence you have that Russia will have the ability to launch a major offensive.
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anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa
Guest
Untrained and poorly equipped conscripts going up against battle hardened forces are odds I’ll take everyday of the week.I have no idea what Russia will do, but here is my thinking. Fall mud is nearly here, while not nearly as bad as spring mud, it will greatly slow offensives. Then comes winter, then spring mud, all also hamper offensives. I leave the troops in Ukraine there and count on them holding with aid from the weather. That gives Russia 6 months to call up these reserves and train them and then deploy them. They are reservists, they are at least partially trained already. I probably station them to train close enough that they are a threat, so Ukraine has to keep its defenses up. But far enough back that they are outside range of artillery. Maybe 75 miles.
That means that come April Ukraine will be fighting against 300,000 more men. Many Ukrainian troops haven't been out of the front lines since this began. By April their psyche can't be good.
I am decidedly NOT saying this is the end for Ukraine, As long as China refuses to sell to Russia, Russia's arms shortages will get worse and not better. Though there are some weapons we are running out of and do not believe we can give more of to Ukraine (Javelin's top that list). France's Caeser illustrates the problem, the French have given Ukraine 1/4 of their total inventory of these 155s. It takes 18 months to build one, how many more can France give?
In WWII, 40% of US medical discharges were from combat fatigue, see link below. That's huge. The question for Ukraine is when does it become a problem for them.
Combat Fatigue: How Stress in Battle was Felt (and Treated) in WWII
We knew little about combat fatigue in WWII, yet more than 504,000 troops were lost due to what we now know as PTSD.
From that link:
The 1946 Combat Exhaustion report concluded, “Psychiatric casualties are as inevitable as gunshot and shrapnel wounds…. The general consensus was that a man reached his peak of effectiveness in the first 90 days of combat, and that after that his efficiency began to fall off, and that he became steadily less valuable thereafter, until he was completely useless.”I am saying this presents a massive challenge for Ukraine. 300,000 is a lot of fresh troops to commit, whenever they get committed, while Ukraine has no fresh troops to commit. If the reserves are brought in piecemeal now, they can help stabilize but that will reduce their offensive capability. If they are held until the summer campaign season, Russia may lose a decent amount of ground but will have the ability to launch a major offensive to gain the south or toward Kyiv.
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anon_6hv78pr714xta
Guest
Flights out of Russia sell out after Putin orders partial call-up
One-way flights out of Russia were rocketing in price and selling out fast on Wednesday after President Vladimir Putin ordered the immediate call-up of 300,000 reservists.
From Defensionem:
Russia announced recently that up to a total of 300,000 reservists will be called up for the military efforts in Ukraine. While several other media entities and personalities have already dismissed this as another Russian blunder and a fanciful act of desperation, we are not. This is a major escalation by Russia.
Firstly, despite claims to the contrary, Russia can equip these forces. Some will no doubt be used to replace loses in units currently engaged in operations and many more will be employed as either full or partial units, for combat operations. At this time, there are two main operational scenarios that can come from this.
The first is that Russia will merely attempt to retain thier current positions and not seek to further contest territory. The other option is a branch with three possibilities;
A. they will renew the offense, now with up to 300k more troops, and seek to seize far more from Ukraine, perhaps Dnirpro, Odessa and elsewhere.
B. The Russian will only launch limited offenses to restore the current front and culminate with the occupation of both separatist regions and all of Kherson.
C. Removal of the sovereignty of Ukraine.
Those are the main options available to Russia. At this time, we will not be able to give an assessment until we see where these forces, however many, actually get deployed and when. We also make no effort at this time to render which option is feasible.
However, Russia will be able to arm and equip these forces and they will be employed. This is a significant development and will have significant impacts on Ukraine and the West.
Firstly, all combat operations are taking place in their entirety, inside of Ukraine. This means all the destruction will occur inside of Ukraine. This means further damages to the Ukrainian civil infrastructure, its industrial base, the Ukrainian population, its agriculture sectors, and its energy sector. Regardless of the final outcome, Ukrainian outlook is bleak and will be totally reliant on the West for reconstruction support. Such support is estimated at 300 billion to 700 billion.
This also assumes that the western nations intend to actually spend that amount of money. If not, Ukraine's economy will not be able to replace the destruction of their internal sectors, nor afford to function. This will likely lead to a humanitarian crises. Energy losses alone will compound any reconstruction efforts by Kiev. Ultimately, the population will suffer, that is a very serious concern.
Secondly, the mass majority of foreign aid has come from the United States. There is ONLY so much more that can be provided without directly affecting the national security of the United States. The US has nearly depleted its European Theater stocks and soon will reach it's red line. This is a reality. The US will also refrain from sending their top tier equipment and newest variants to Ukraine.
This forces the US to either begin withdrawals from their Central Command war stocks and their IndoPac war stocks or deplete their EuroCom stocks further. Currently, the US has nearly 100k Troops in Europe. They too need to be armed and provisioned, the standard is 90 days worth of war stock. If they are not provisioned appropriately, then they are not a deterrent to Russia.. as Soldiers armed with rocks do not deter foreign aggression.
Russia knows this.
BLUF: The US is not expected to deplete its war stocks in either the Central Command or the IndoPac theaters for Ukraine.
This also means that unless other NATO nations fully commit all their supplies, the aid is finite and there is a limit.
As it stands now, Ukrainian forces are not capable of self sustainment and are totally reliant on the good will of the US and its intelligence capabilites. A longer conflict with attrition will hurt Ukraine and the West far more than it will hurt Russia. There is sadly no way around this reality.
The above realities needs to set in for some. There are no winners from this conflict.
Ukraine is now going to have to make a calculated choice before these Russian reservists enter into theater. Prolonged fighting inside of Ukraine and amongst its own cities will ruin thier nation for generations.
There is a harsh reality with western aid. It's not unlimited. One individual recently speculated that another offense must occur before things slow down and that Ukraine must attack again soon.
Overall this announcement and the continued, but albeit stealthy talk of nuclear weapons, are significant events that clearly illustrate that no matter what the tweets show, this conflict is far from over and it's about to get.. "uglier".
Russia announced recently that up to a total of 300,000 reservists will be called up for the military efforts in Ukraine. While several other media entities and personalities have already dismissed this as another Russian blunder and a fanciful act of desperation, we are not. This is a major escalation by Russia.
Firstly, despite claims to the contrary, Russia can equip these forces. Some will no doubt be used to replace loses in units currently engaged in operations and many more will be employed as either full or partial units, for combat operations. At this time, there are two main operational scenarios that can come from this.
The first is that Russia will merely attempt to retain thier current positions and not seek to further contest territory. The other option is a branch with three possibilities;
A. they will renew the offense, now with up to 300k more troops, and seek to seize far more from Ukraine, perhaps Dnirpro, Odessa and elsewhere.
B. The Russian will only launch limited offenses to restore the current front and culminate with the occupation of both separatist regions and all of Kherson.
C. Removal of the sovereignty of Ukraine.
Those are the main options available to Russia. At this time, we will not be able to give an assessment until we see where these forces, however many, actually get deployed and when. We also make no effort at this time to render which option is feasible.
However, Russia will be able to arm and equip these forces and they will be employed. This is a significant development and will have significant impacts on Ukraine and the West.
Firstly, all combat operations are taking place in their entirety, inside of Ukraine. This means all the destruction will occur inside of Ukraine. This means further damages to the Ukrainian civil infrastructure, its industrial base, the Ukrainian population, its agriculture sectors, and its energy sector. Regardless of the final outcome, Ukrainian outlook is bleak and will be totally reliant on the West for reconstruction support. Such support is estimated at 300 billion to 700 billion.
This also assumes that the western nations intend to actually spend that amount of money. If not, Ukraine's economy will not be able to replace the destruction of their internal sectors, nor afford to function. This will likely lead to a humanitarian crises. Energy losses alone will compound any reconstruction efforts by Kiev. Ultimately, the population will suffer, that is a very serious concern.
Secondly, the mass majority of foreign aid has come from the United States. There is ONLY so much more that can be provided without directly affecting the national security of the United States. The US has nearly depleted its European Theater stocks and soon will reach it's red line. This is a reality. The US will also refrain from sending their top tier equipment and newest variants to Ukraine.
This forces the US to either begin withdrawals from their Central Command war stocks and their IndoPac war stocks or deplete their EuroCom stocks further. Currently, the US has nearly 100k Troops in Europe. They too need to be armed and provisioned, the standard is 90 days worth of war stock. If they are not provisioned appropriately, then they are not a deterrent to Russia.. as Soldiers armed with rocks do not deter foreign aggression.
Russia knows this.
BLUF: The US is not expected to deplete its war stocks in either the Central Command or the IndoPac theaters for Ukraine.
This also means that unless other NATO nations fully commit all their supplies, the aid is finite and there is a limit.
As it stands now, Ukrainian forces are not capable of self sustainment and are totally reliant on the good will of the US and its intelligence capabilites. A longer conflict with attrition will hurt Ukraine and the West far more than it will hurt Russia. There is sadly no way around this reality.
The above realities needs to set in for some. There are no winners from this conflict.
Ukraine is now going to have to make a calculated choice before these Russian reservists enter into theater. Prolonged fighting inside of Ukraine and amongst its own cities will ruin thier nation for generations.
There is a harsh reality with western aid. It's not unlimited. One individual recently speculated that another offense must occur before things slow down and that Ukraine must attack again soon.
Overall this announcement and the continued, but albeit stealthy talk of nuclear weapons, are significant events that clearly illustrate that no matter what the tweets show, this conflict is far from over and it's about to get.. "uglier".
Meanwhile Understanding War thinks 300,000 isn't enough to do more than replace loses over the next year.
www.understandingwar.org
Institute for the Study of War
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of “partial mobilization” on September 21 reflected many problems Russia faces in its faltering invasion of Ukraine that Moscow is unlikely to be able to resolve in the coming months. Putin’s order to mobili
This idea that the US is running short of supplies is ridiculous.
"Firstly", we're not giving them the really good stuff. 18 HIMARS doesn't make a dent in our supply. We haven't sent them the really long-range arty - yet.
This opinion piece - and that's all it is - plays into the Russian monolith myth. They also have borders to defend and they can't throw rocks to scare off potential enemies. They can't draw down all their war material to throw at Ukraine without severely weakening their huge border security and adventures in the Middle East and elsewhere.
They are falling into the American way of thinking in Viet Nam - throw enough troops into the country and it will overwhelm the enemy. It didn't work then and I doubt it works now.
I'll say one other thing - if the Russians were stupid enough to use small nukes or use gas, the US should immediately transfer F-16s to Ukraine, and I hope we're training their pilots now, secretly, in anticipation of that happening.
Here is a link discussing HIMARS, it is more the ammo that is the issue.
Is the United States Running out of Weapons to Send to Ukraine?
The United States has given Ukraine dozens of different munitions and weapon systems. In most instances, the amounts given to Ukraine are relatively small compared to U.S. inventories and production capabilities. However, some U.S. inventories are reaching the minimum levels needed for war plans...
WSJ has an article on low US stockpiles, particularly of 155 ammo
WSJ News Exclusive | Ukraine War Is Depleting U.S. Ammunition Stockpiles, Sparking Pentagon Concern
The level of one type of combat rounds in storage is ‘uncomfortably low,’ and the military is studying how to fill its ammunition needs while supplying Kyiv.
www.wsj.com
The Russians do have problems, but they are switching back to dumb weapons. Those are cheaper/quicker to build. Plus if they view this was as existential, they will strip other departments clean. We will not empty Korea or Taiwan.
Russia Might Run Out of Weapons, Ammunition By End of Year: Report
It's not the first time reports questioned how much strength Russia has left. But it comes as the country has continued to struggle in its war with Ukraine.
www.google.com
Both sides have problems. I haven't linked the numerous stories of Europe being out of weapons to send. Biden may need to consider the Defense Production Act. Our yearly production of everything is low (some items are not even made any longer). With supply chain snarls, worker shortages, inflation/looming recession, we aren't likely to see a massive increase without it.
My concern is not what you think. My concern is the narrative that Ukraine has won the war will jeopardize US support. We are in a tough economic time, and getting worse. They have won, we need to help Americans is about to become a thing.
This war is a long way from over.
The WSJ article is behind a firewall, but I saw they are quoting Pentagon officials.Here is a link discussing HIMARS, it is more the ammo that is the issue.
Is the United States Running out of Weapons to Send to Ukraine?
The United States has given Ukraine dozens of different munitions and weapon systems. In most instances, the amounts given to Ukraine are relatively small compared to U.S. inventories and production capabilities. However, some U.S. inventories are reaching the minimum levels needed for war plans...www.csis.org
WSJ has an article on low US stockpiles, particularly of 155 ammo
WSJ News Exclusive | Ukraine War Is Depleting U.S. Ammunition Stockpiles, Sparking Pentagon Concern
The level of one type of combat rounds in storage is ‘uncomfortably low,’ and the military is studying how to fill its ammunition needs while supplying Kyiv.
The Russians do have problems, but they are switching back to dumb weapons. Those are cheaper/quicker to build. Plus if they view this was as existential, they will strip other departments clean. We will not empty Korea or Taiwan.
Russia Might Run Out of Weapons, Ammunition By End of Year: Report
It's not the first time reports questioned how much strength Russia has left. But it comes as the country has continued to struggle in its war with Ukraine.
Both sides have problems. I haven't linked the numerous stories of Europe being out of weapons to send. Biden may need to consider the Defense Production Act. Our yearly production of everything is low (some items are not even made any longer). With supply chain snarls, worker shortages, inflation/looming recession, we aren't likely to see a massive increase without it.
My concern is not what you think. My concern is the narrative that Ukraine has won the war will jeopardize US support. We are in a tough economic time, and getting worse. They have won, we need to help Americans is about to become a thing.
This war is a long way from over.
No offense to any military - or ex-military - members who may be reading, but I believe the Pentagon's public assessment about as much as I believe Putin. It's all for public consumption, with the goal of keeping the funding supply line open.
I understand what you're saying. You're not knocking our support or claiming Russia will suddenly overwhelm Ukraine. But ask yourself this - who can better keep their side resupplied - the US or Russia?
That's why we've got $40 Billion set aside. And don't think the defense industry isn't chomping at the bit to get their piece of it. They can more easily maneuver logistics issues by virtue of their priority and connections.
I think it could be over very soon if something happens to Putin.
I did like your Vietnam comparison earlier. I don't think Russia will win if Ukraine and the west stay focused. But if Russia can inflict some setbacks after rasputitsa I think there will be pressure to stop helping. Americans have the attention sp SQUIRREL
ISW cannot confirm but report that Russian military bloggers say the call up will be 1.2 million. Of course this sheds the idea that they will be combat veterans. And the mobilization is already in deep trouble.
There is no way they can arm 1.2 million men and feed them in Ukraine. Their supply capabilities are far too limited.
www.understandingwar.org
There is no way they can arm 1.2 million men and feed them in Ukraine. Their supply capabilities are far too limited.
Institute for the Study of War
The Russian mobilization system is struggling to execute the task Russian President Vladimir Putin set and will likely fail to produce mobilized reserve forces even of the low quality that Putin’s plans would have generated unless the Kremlin can rapidly
These guys are going to get creamed...literally.
Also reports are the Putin is taking direct control of the operation and has ordered no retreat from Kherson. That seems to have worked out well for another dictator that all Russians should be familiar with...
Tripped over this while watching a Battle of the Rosebud video (Crook vs Crazy Horse 1876)...
I've seen this particular retired US Army Lt. General (Hodges) several times on cable news interviews and he is always informative and doesn't waste words...
This particular video is close to a week old so keep that in mind...
Enjoy:
I've seen this particular retired US Army Lt. General (Hodges) several times on cable news interviews and he is always informative and doesn't waste words...
This particular video is close to a week old so keep that in mind...
Enjoy:
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anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa
Guest
Putin is committing war crimes in his own people. The men in this church are already dead.
They're being sent to die or become a casualty basically. They're getting something like five days of "training" and then sent to the front lines. Putin made a big mistake and Russia's military is bad.Meanwhile Understanding War thinks 300,000 isn't enough to do more than replace loses over the next year.
Institute for the Study of War
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of “partial mobilization” on September 21 reflected many problems Russia faces in its faltering invasion of Ukraine that Moscow is unlikely to be able to resolve in the coming months. Putin’s order to mobili
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anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa
Guest
My fear is he’s using this as a step towards using tactical nukes.
We have to assume he's a rational actor. That would be nothing but irrational. He wouldn't survive it.
Wouldn't he? If he is at least smart enough to limit the attack to a single/few strike(s) against a Ukrainian target(s), why doesn't he survive?
Dictators seem to never wonder what is in the best interest of the people.
Russia has spent big money building things like the hypersonic missile. They want it to brag, and the look good in parades.
What I didn't realize, and it seems overall the US didn't realize, was how thin Russia's supply capabilities were. From day 1, it has been a problem. But trucks don't look good in a May Day parade.
It also looks their training is subpar. Again, other than marching in step, training doesn't make the May Day Parade more exciting.
I worked with a woman years ago who had spent a year in the USSR in the mid 80s. She said we greatly had overestimated the Soviet army. Her tip, a Moscow hospital with screens in the surgical room instead of windows.
Overall though, Ukraine's military is deeply steeped in Soviet doctrine. I doubt the average Ukrainian soldier is that much better trained.
But undoubtedly Ukraine's troops are more motivated.
I wonder if Wagner Group is finding it hard to recruit mercenaries? Because pay is better, I would think trained soldiers would prefer going to work for them. My crazy guess, not many international mercenaries want to work for Russia, and most Russians don't want in Ukraine.
But the events of the past week answer the question I have had since the second week, why didn't Putin commit more. I assumed he had more control over Russia than it appears he has.
You think the west ever drops sanctions if he does? My guess is China has even told him that is too far.
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anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa
Guest
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anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa
Guest
Our president basically insinuated it today. We probably don’t respond nuclear but I think we start bombing the **** out of their positions.
Ugh. The only way we survive this is if Russia's generals already have a guy on Putin's security team set to put a bullet in his head if he tries to go too far.
Overall though, Ukraine's military is deeply steeped in Soviet doctrine. I doubt the average Ukrainian soldier is that much better trained.
With the work they put in defending the south and east, with the cooperative joint training with NATO, and their effectiveness in battle suggest Ukrainian training is clearly superior to Russian training, whose best units have been largely decimated.
Russia has spent big money building things like the hypersonic missile. They want it to brag, and then look good in parades.
The trucks that towed the missile launchers in May Day parade looked good. The stuff that got shot up and made the combat news photos was antiquated… they still had clutches.
I worked with a woman years ago who had spent a year in the USSR in the mid 80s. She said we greatly had overestimated the Soviet army. Her tip, a Moscow hospital with screens in the surgical room instead of windows.
The troops that invaded Ukraine would have never made it to FDR‘s capital, Bonn.
But the events of the past week answer the question I have had since the second week, why didn't Putin commit more. I assumed he had more control over Russia than it appears he has.
Unit readiness was clearly inflated, and no one dared to tell the truth about that, and about how capable the Ukrainians were for fighting in the East.
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