Reminder...this is based off the overwhelming evidence from the last 10 years, that Final Four teams are nearly always either top 20 in both Offensive and defensive efficiency, or are dominant (top 5) in one or the other, and still fairly good on the weaker side of the ball.
And since KenPom's end of year rankings do include ALL NCAA tourney games, I changed the criteria to top 30 in both categories, or Top 10 in one (still top 70 in other), for all the teams KenPom rankings as of today. Not scientific, but makes sense to me. Anyone hovering around 30/30 rankings would likely push for 20/20 with a final four run. And anyone hovering around 10 on either side of the ball, would push for top 5 in all likelihood if they made a FF run. As their strength would have likely been key to their success.
So here's a region by region list of contenders:
South
Legit KenPom History Contenders: Alabama, Arizona, San Diego State, Creighton
Borderline but not quite: Baylor (defense isn't good enough), Maryland, WVU (both these teams are solid, but not elite enough on either side of the ball)
East
Legit KenPom History Contenders: Purdue, Marquette, Tennessee
Borderline but not quite: Kansas State, Duke, Memphis, Florida Atlantic (all these teams are solid on both sides of the ball, but not elite enough)
Midwest
Legit KenPom History Contenders: Houston, Texas, Xavier
Borderline but not quite: Indiana (we know about them), Iowa (elite offense, defense not good enough), Iowa State, Texas A&M, Auburn (all these solid both side, not elite enough)
West
Legit KenPom History Contenders: Kansas, UCLA, Gonzaga, UConn, St Marys
Borderline but not quite: Arkansas and TCU (both solid both ends, not elite enough at either)
If History repeats itself, Purdue actually has a pretty easy route. Tennessee isn't probably worthy of their efficiency rankings any more. They've been bad since that main guard went out for the season.
Houston probably has enough depth and other high end talent to still be top 20 on both sides without Sasser...but if he can't play, look for either Texas or Xavier to come out of the Midwest.
South and West are brutal. Glad we're not in either of those regions.
And since KenPom's end of year rankings do include ALL NCAA tourney games, I changed the criteria to top 30 in both categories, or Top 10 in one (still top 70 in other), for all the teams KenPom rankings as of today. Not scientific, but makes sense to me. Anyone hovering around 30/30 rankings would likely push for 20/20 with a final four run. And anyone hovering around 10 on either side of the ball, would push for top 5 in all likelihood if they made a FF run. As their strength would have likely been key to their success.
So here's a region by region list of contenders:
South
Legit KenPom History Contenders: Alabama, Arizona, San Diego State, Creighton
Borderline but not quite: Baylor (defense isn't good enough), Maryland, WVU (both these teams are solid, but not elite enough on either side of the ball)
East
Legit KenPom History Contenders: Purdue, Marquette, Tennessee
Borderline but not quite: Kansas State, Duke, Memphis, Florida Atlantic (all these teams are solid on both sides of the ball, but not elite enough)
Midwest
Legit KenPom History Contenders: Houston, Texas, Xavier
Borderline but not quite: Indiana (we know about them), Iowa (elite offense, defense not good enough), Iowa State, Texas A&M, Auburn (all these solid both side, not elite enough)
West
Legit KenPom History Contenders: Kansas, UCLA, Gonzaga, UConn, St Marys
Borderline but not quite: Arkansas and TCU (both solid both ends, not elite enough at either)
If History repeats itself, Purdue actually has a pretty easy route. Tennessee isn't probably worthy of their efficiency rankings any more. They've been bad since that main guard went out for the season.
Houston probably has enough depth and other high end talent to still be top 20 on both sides without Sasser...but if he can't play, look for either Texas or Xavier to come out of the Midwest.
South and West are brutal. Glad we're not in either of those regions.
