They won’t even define Trans….makes it hard to do the mathI think the idea is that for such a tiny portion of the population the incidence “might” be high
They won’t even define Trans….makes it hard to do the mathI think the idea is that for such a tiny portion of the population the incidence “might” be high
I think the notion Goat is pushing back on is that trans people are inherently violent (or more so than the rest of the population) or crazy.I think the idea is that for such a tiny portion of the population the incidence “might” be high
The numbers we are talking about are too small to have any statistical relevance one way or the other.I think the idea is that for such a tiny portion of the population the incidence “might” be high
That's worth pushing back against, but it's not what I was doing. I was pushing back against the temptation to see trends or patterns that aren't justified.I think the notion Goat is pushing back on is that trans people are inherently violent (or more so than the rest of the population) or crazy.
This gets into a public policy conundrum with a tough balancing act. The vast majority of people suffering some type of mental illness (assuming we classify trans people as people with a type of mental illness and I realize this is very controversial) are not violent and will never commit an act of violence. On the other hand, one almost needs to define a mass school shooter as someone who is mentally ill, which would make 100% of them mentally ill.
Or that confirm biases.That's worth pushing back against, but it's not what I was doing. I was pushing back against the temptation to see trends or patterns that aren't justified.
That is very often the subtext.Or that confirm biases.
This article says there was just the one.
Right, so would it ever make sense for me to say something like "Most murders are committed by blacks or Pacific Islanders?"
According to the article Brad helpfully linked, neither do trans folks. But, as I already pointed out, when you're dealing with a sample size of four, it's not going to ever mean anything. Just not enough data.Depends, do Pacific Islanders disproportionately account for multiple murders compared to their population? We are talking about mass shooting events.
Nobody is saying a majority of the shooters aren't male and I'd guess, a significant number of those are white. Obviously defining mass shootings is another can of worms.
It’s also a newer sample of data. There will be more.According to the article Brad helpfully linked, neither do trans folks. But, as I already pointed out, when you're dealing with a sample size of four, it's not going to ever mean anything. Just not enough data.
The continued proliferation of screens and main character syndrome perpetuated by our entertainment culture (Wallace talking about TV here but I think it applies to internet/social media/netflix etc) only serves to alienate us from our neighbors, communities, families, etc. Isolation only leads to loneliness, depression, sadness, anger, and then righteousness in the feeling that we are right and more important than our fellow man.What am I supposed to take away from this? "It's complicated"?
...serves to alienate us from our neighbors, communities, families, etc. Isolation only leads to loneliness, depression, sadness, anger, and then righteousness in the feeling that we are right and more important than our fellow man.
Well this is true underpants gnomeology.These shooters have always been mentally ill, social outcasts.
It just so happens that these days, a lot of mentally ill, social outcasts fall victim to the Trans ideology.
That’s my theory.
The continued proliferation of screens and main character syndrome perpetuated by our entertainment culture (Wallace talking about TV here but I think it applies to internet/social media/netflix etc) only serves to alienate us from our neighbors, communities, families, etc. Isolation only leads to loneliness, depression, sadness, anger, and then righteousness in the feeling that we are right and more important than our fellow man.
Every school shooter is depressed. Why are there more school shooters now? B/c there's more depressed kids? Why? Social media. Main character syndrome. Treating others like NPCs in a video game.
My take anyway.
Jury’s in. And there are no mental health benefits to transitioning. Because mental illness is mental illness no matter how much you mutilate yourself.Trans people or those considering transitioning are not mentally well. Are they after transitioning? I think the jury's out on that and we won't know for years.
In all of these school shootings, I see people trying to make sense of the incomprehensible. Either by trying to find a cause, or someone to blame, or a political reason, etc. --anything to fit these incredible sad events into our own narratives and give us a sense of control over these seemingly uncontrollable events. Emotionally, helplessness is just an awful, awful feeling. Rationally, realizing the world might be more violent and random than we tend to believe is very hard to swallow.
For me, this one strikes a chord re the shooter. That she was female and apparently "normal" looking (no crazy eyes, no tattoos or piercings or strange hair cut or colors) is unique. I have a teenage daughter, about her age, and reading about her and her diary, seeing a pic of her sleeping on top of her dad (I think that's what the photo was) when she was an infant really personalizes this for me--I have the same photo of my daughter sleeping on top of me as a little one. This is a tragedy, all the way around.
Final note: who is this Instagram guy and why is he doing all this digging for info? And why would you tell him anything?
Name escapes me, but years ago there was an east coast basketball coach turned broadcaster who said that everyone should drive a cab and tend bar early in life. A lot of wisdom in that.
I haven't seen enough pictures (nor do I want to... nor would I even know what normal is these days) to know if she was "normal looking", but anyone with her pattern of behavior (obsession with mass shootings, manifestos and crazy shit that is coming out) could not have been "normal" to most.
I don't know, but he reported the news 5 hours before Reuters confirmed who it was and provided some interesting and disturbing information.
I agree that it's impossible and futile to make sense of the incomprehensible, but what will actually cause a change in behavior among mentally ill loners who continue to murder innocent people? To your point, perhaps we have to accept that violence is a reality of living in our world. But, it's not one that I think we ought to willingly accept without trying to improve.
I think you can take away from it that there is an inherent tension between a social conservative and a fiscal/economic right winger. What's good for capitalism and the economy, might not be good for our wellbeing as a society or as social beings.What am I supposed to take away from this? "It's complicated"?
What the hell is underpants gnomeology and why have you and Goat now used that same term in the last few days?Well this is true underpants gnomeology.
Trans people or those considering transitioning are not mentally well. Are they after transitioning? I think the jury's out on that and we won't know for years.
School shooters are all crazy. And they are overwhelmingly young men. That we just point it out but then inquire no further as to why is the real problem.
Narrative/blame-wise, I don't think you can make sense of it if you believe in some innate justice or good in the universe.I agree that it's impossible and futile to make sense of the incomprehensible, but what will actually cause a change in behavior among mentally ill loners who continue to murder innocent people?
No one in their right mind draws conclusions from data that they are sure is going to come in the future. Talk about confirming biases.It’s also a newer sample of data. There will be more.
What the hell is underpants gnomeology and why have you and Goat now used that same term in the last few days?
This is a verbose way of saying people can make something of life or not. Their choice. It’s not at all complicated. It’s simple. But choosing a productive life and putting in the necessary effort is hard. Maybe the complicated part is figuring out how to lead a productive life easily with no effort.What am I supposed to take away from this? "It's complicated"?
Confirmation bias? I thought you were talking about climate models. Confirmation bias either way.No one in their right mind draws conclusions from data that they are sure is going to come in the future. Talk about confirming biases.
Do we have confirmation on the "manifesto"?
Please, by all means, continue to remind us how little you understand about quantitative data and modeling.Confirmation bias? I thought you were talking about climate models. Confirmation bias either way.
I think you can take away from it that there is an inherent tension between a social conservative and a fiscal/economic right winger. What's good for capitalism and the economy, might not be good for our wellbeing as a society or as social beings.
This is a verbose way of saying people can make something of life or not. Their choice. It’s not at all complicated. It’s simple. But choosing a productive life and putting in the necessary effort his hard. Maybe the complicated part is figuring out how to lead a productive life easily with no effort.
I don’t disagree. But I think the failure of weak minded people to live happily is a result of poor choices.I read it as, there are too many temptations for the current weak minded populace to live happily in a society where they aren't the richest, best, etc.
Quantitative data? Climate models are observed mathematical historical data put into a blender loaded with human assumptions , mostly biased, about the future effects of said data. That is why the resulting overstate the problem.Please, by all means, continue to remind us how little you understand about quantitative data and modeling.
Do you believe being "weak minded" is a choice?I don’t disagree. But I think the failure of weak minded people to live happily is a result of poor choices.
I’m not drawing conclusions - I’m predicting the future. I’ll be right.No one in their right mind draws conclusions from data that they are sure is going to come in the future. Talk about confirming biases.
Had a discussion about this very issue with my sister. Nature v nurture and all that stuff. No way to accurately answer your question though. Each individual decision we make rests on various combinations of outside influences over which we have control, , but it is processed in a biological landscape over which we have no control.Do you believe being "weak minded" is a choice?
No one in their right mind draws conclusions from data that they are sure is going to come in the future. Talk about confirming biases.
Narrative/blame-wise, I don't think you can make sense of it if you believe in some innate justice or good in the universe.
Policy-wise re the deaths, what will change this? Some possibilities:
1. Idenitifying mentally ill people earlier and getting them into talk therapy or on medication. That will cost a lot of money and probably require fundamental change to some institutions. This is the route I would prefer but doubt will garner any political will.
2. Restrict gun rights in people so that when these people do decide to kill themselves, it's too difficult to kill a lot of other people. Again, I don't see the needed political will to do this.
3. Put metal detectors in every school, guards, etc. and turn our schools into mini fortresses across the country. This is the route we've gone down for most schools.