so, in reality winning at Oregon is the only thing that can help us, dropping one of the other games could really hurt.
Depends on how you look at it. Losing to PSU and/or Washington would cause us to drop...maybe a fair bit.
But at this point, its pretty difficult to actually gain on the other teams ranked similarly to us.
The part that is frustrating, is our NET can move up and down without us playing a game. Generally, the wins and losses the opponents on our record incur, largely offset each other. But if we had a schedule dynamic that might lead to 2-3 key opponents winning a few games in a row, or losing a few games in a row, and moving up or down a Quad level because of that...it could move us more than a spot or two.
In the end...
win all 4 remaining games, we'll be in safely, even if we lose first game of BTT.
Lots of combinations of 3 wins that might get us on the right side of the bubble, but we'd need a win or two in the BTT, I suspect.
No combinations of 2 wins that get us at large consideration, even if we make a run to BTT title game.
All my opinion, obviously.