As it’s not up to us, or any expert that isn’t on the committee the best we can do is look at the criteria posted by the committee and speculate.
below is the criteria and the link. I think it’s close. IU has a NET of 56, which is 12th in the BT , similar to our B10 standing. Minnesota and PU (32), are both ahead of us.
We have troubling results as far as road record, and out of conference strength of schedule. These are used as criteria per the committee. Various computer models include things like KenPom, but we know the committee uses NET predominantly.
here’s what THEY say:
http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-selections
The NCAA Evaluation Tool, known as the NET, is in its second year of existence and is one of many factors used by NCAA sports committees when evaluating team selection, seeding and bracketing.
The components of the NET include the Team Value Index, which is based on game results and factors game location, the opponent and outcome, as well as net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and a capped scoring margin.
Other criteria the committee considers in the selections process:
- An extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and regional advisory committee rankings.
- Complete box scores and results.
- Head-to-head results and results versus common opponents.
- Imbalanced conference schedules and results.
- Overall and nonconference strength of schedule.
- The quality of wins and losses.
- Road record.
- Player and coach availability.
- Various computer metrics.
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings