Tegray1 is a moron. Waste of time to attempt reason.
IU whiffed on Ryan Langborg
- Thread starter Tegray1
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Here we go again with a Negative Nancy who thinks he has higher expectations and cares more because he’s perpetually pessimistic and constantly whining. You don’t care more or have higher expectations, you just whine more and expect less.
I agree that it takes multiple seasons to develop a team that can make a tournament run. Who do you see on this team forming the core of a future team with good chances of a run. Ware no question if he sticks, Cupps a question mark, Renau no question, MM if he sticks. It depends on retaining MM and Ware for a couple more seasons and adding some pieces otherwise where we are now. You need a stable core to build around and plug a hole with transfers and freshman to build a top program. If you have to replace much of your starting scoring each season then difficult to get to the next level.
It doesn’t matter how good this team will do in the tourney they should beat Michigan.
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There is no way I couldn’t support Coach Woodson but just hope he makes decisions to build the program over multiple seasons and not plateau as a competitive B10 team.
NET ranking even with the 6-1 is 137. That's not good.
Perhaps (and add KAN to that mix), but it would help more if we can win 2 of the 3. Just playing will get the bump, but now it’s about getting wins that will get you a bid (the non-con so far doesn’t have any).
It's December 4th....
It is, but consider a year ago our opening NET ranking was 10, and two years ago it was 56. So we’re starting at a much lesser spot, and the B1G’s lack of strength won’t play to our advantage.
Our best win right now is HARV at 93. (LOU is at 279.)
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Wow. I didn’t realize Lvill that low. Last I looked at Harvard’s BPI it was around 140.
With Newton, Rayford and now X out, some on here seem to be asking Trey to be great all the time. That's an impossible ask. He's basically carrying the whole load for the backcourt since Cupps is raw and Leal has limitations and Gunn has quite a ways to go. Even without shooting from deep that well, Trey had a fine all-around game the other night, probably his best since coming to IU. It could be a springboard to him raising his game and shooting.
Because a ton of the data used in KenPom, etc that factors into the NET is still heavily weighed from LAST years data. Louisville was awful last year. These predictive measures aren't supposed to be taken seriously until mid-January/February once teams start regularly playing conference foes and have common opponents to compare.
Thank you Beorik, We are a team in progress, we will be better at the end of the season.
We might be, but that doesn't mean our resume will end up being stellar (especially with the lesser strength of the B1G--there are four B1G teams in the NET top-25, but there's a sharp drop-off to the fifth-best team in NW at 48).
Notice the teams who played in pre season tournaments are up there? The one who haven’t played the meat of their schedule aren’t. These rankings are inaccurate quite a bit this early.
Empire Classic was a tournament too. Counts all the same.
And yes, I get there will be fluctuation. The worry I have is that whatever wins we get won’t vault us up enough to get into better-than-bubble status (unless we beat both KAN and PUR, then we should be in like flint).
Except the empire classic was less games. Maui and Atlantis etc are an actual tournament. You play better teams in those too.
Maui and Atlantis you play three games, and you usually only play the better teams if you win (see MICH, who lost to TTU to finish fifth). So it's one more game than IND played (and IND played the best of the four teams involved in the 588-2300, then played the worst of the four in the consolation part).
Certainly IND will take a step up in next year's Atlantis tournament with ARIZ, GONZ, CREI, OKLA and WVU as potential opponents (DAV and LOU are the other two teams, so IND and LOU could have a rematch). But it's only one more game than the 588-2300, and IND's probably gonna have to win to play any of the big boys.
Even so, it doesn't really change the overall point--the reason we're as low as we are is that even though we're 6-1 we really haven't played anybody well (and a few of the teams we struggled to beat [like ARMY] are really bad). And the legitimate worry is if we play that way against the few really good teams left on the sked, we'll get plastered (and the team will lose too
). And there really aren't a lot of teams we can beat that will allow us to make up ground. A lot of times when judging teams for at-larges, it's not how many games you've won, but who you won against. UNC last year is a textbook example--they went 20-13, but only beat one Q1 team (UVA) in 10 tries, had no Q3/Q4 losses, and still missed the field. So if we finish say 19-12 (11-9 in conference), unless some of the 19 wins are against AUB, KAN, PUR, OSU, WIS, ILL, NW and MSU (only top-50 teams currently left, although MSU is actually at 51) we're probably NIT-bound. (And losing all of them is possible, and maybe even plausible.)(And one footnote in this--a lot of the controversy around whether FLST or ALA should've gotten the last CFP spot centered around FLST's loss of their QB and also how bad the ACC was in football, while ALA beat powerhouse UGA to essentially take the spot away from FLST.)
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Thanks for taking the time to explain your concern. All that is required is a win over Kansas and this will be remediedMaui and Atlantis you play three games, and you usually only play the better teams if you win (see MICH, who lost to TTU to finish fifth). So it's one more game than IND played (and IND played the best of the four teams involved in the 588-2300, then played the worst of the four in the consolation part).
Certainly IND will take a step up in next year's Atlantis tournament with ARIZ, GONZ, CREI, OKLA and WVU as potential opponents (DAV and LOU are the other two teams, so IND and LOU could have a rematch). But it's only one more game than the 588-2300, and IND's probably gonna have to win to play any of the big boys.
Even so, it doesn't really change the overall point--the reason we're as low as we are is that even though we're 6-1 we really haven't played anybody well (and a few of the teams we struggled to beat [like ARMY] are really bad). And the legitimate worry is if we play that way against the few really good teams left on the sked, we'll get plastered (and the team will lose too
(And one footnote in this--a lot of the controversy around whether FLST or ALA should've gotten the last CFP spot centered around FLST's loss of their QB and also how bad the ACC was in football, while ALA beat powerhouse UGA to essentially take the spot away from FLST.)
.Be cautious, this place runs mostly on emotion and cliche.
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Donald Knuth is the father of computer algorithms-a true Compsci giant. in 1956 he was a freshman at Case Western and they had one of the few IBM 650‘s in the country at that time and wrote the operating manual for the computer as a freshman for the entire university. The professor in his first Compsci class actually used the manual he wrote as the textbook for his class.Maui and Atlantis you play three games, and you usually only play the better teams if you win (see MICH, who lost to TTU to finish fifth). So it's one more game than IND played (and IND played the best of the four teams involved in the 588-2300, then played the worst of the four in the consolation part).
Certainly IND will take a step up in next year's Atlantis tournament with ARIZ, GONZ, CREI, OKLA and WVU as potential opponents (DAV and LOU are the other two teams, so IND and LOU could have a rematch). But it's only one more game than the 588-2300, and IND's probably gonna have to win to play any of the big boys.
Even so, it doesn't really change the overall point--the reason we're as low as we are is that even though we're 6-1 we really haven't played anybody well (and a few of the teams we struggled to beat [like ARMY] are really bad). And the legitimate worry is if we play that way against the few really good teams left on the sked, we'll get plastered (and the team will lose too
(And one footnote in this--a lot of the controversy around whether FLST or ALA should've gotten the last CFP spot centered around FLST's loss of their QB and also how bad the ACC was in football, while ALA beat powerhouse UGA to essentially take the spot away from FLST.)
One of his first projects-he wrote a basketball handicapping program.
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It is a very strange ranking for IU, the lowest rated one loss team in the country. No one knows how the Team Value Index is calculated or how they arrive at the initial ranking prior to any games. I don’t think the initial ranking prior to games could be just prior season since IU was a tournament team. They might adjust that however by the strength of players lost and the strength of players gained based on prior season performance. They limit all wins and loss margins to 10 pts max so blowout wins and losses have no special impact. There has to be something strange in the black box that penalized IU a lot.
Yes changes after every game but strange IU is so low now. Nebraska much higher with same record and crap schedule with blowout loss to Creighton.
So, our NET is still heavily weighted from last yr?
Great points, and I wondered the same. I would be inclined to assume that our ranking is partly based on residual data from last year (as you said, as a starting point), but if that is the case, this years part of the data is even worse than our current ranking.
Yeah. It makes no sense Colgate had a blowout loss to Zona, weak schedule otherwise at 4-4, and loss to Harvard. Something seems strange in the black box.
We’ve had no road games, perhaps that is part of it, (u-conn being neutral).
There are multiple equations that feed into NET, one being predictive ratings rooted in efficiency. Efficiency ratings take into consideration last years results as a starting point until there is enough data from the current season to cut it out altogether. That's why guys like Sagarin and KenPom whose rankings are predictive in nature, tell you not to take their rankings seriously until after January.
Yeah-that hurts. Just amazed that IU is the lowest 1 loss ranked team in country with so many teams at 4-4 with weak schedules and low margins of victory wins above us. If I get IU even money against against Colgate I am putting every cent I have on IU. Empty the kids education accounts-it all goes.
The efficiency calculation is clear. It is the Team Value Index calculation that is a black box and the calculations have never been released.
So two years ago you were too ignorant to have an intelligent opinion, but now you are so smart that you have developed clairvoyance and can predict all our future seasons under Woodson.
Cool.
Has the government been experimenting on you?
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