It's the economy stupid

[mcmurtry66]

Real estate prices will correct. People are still using comps from a 3% mortgage environment vs the 7% of today. The buyer pool has shrunk considerably due to rate increases.

The reality is that a $700k home in the 3% rate environment was very achievable for many dual income, college educated households, even in their early 30s. And there are a lot of them out there. But at 7% the numbers just don't work.

But again I"m not placing blame on any one thing. I'm simply saying the totality of costs for big ticket items are making the american dream untenable for a growing population. education has always been the path to success. college tuition has exploded. fancy amenities, administrative bloat, all kinds of intra university reasons, as well as external forces like the economy/state funding etc. states were getting squeezed with medicare expenses etc limiting the amount that could be earmarked for universities. public funding hit historic lows not long ago and tuition offset the losses. students on average take longer to graduate today. combine those factors/forces and kids are coming out with more debt that takes longer to pay off. education will always be the pathway to "the american dream" for the lion's share of our population. the median household income today is $70k. some of these schools are that a year today. a car is $50k. twenty years ago the median household income was $42k and a car $20k in 90 it was $35k and $15k. 80 it was $21k and $7k.

i understand the impact of rates etc. the cost of the american dream has exploded and for the average joe wages aren't keeping up

 

[twenty02]

uh oh I will be in trouble now. Funny how those people can post anything they want isn't it?

You post personal insults on probably 90% of your posts, and not much beyond that..... nobody gives a shit about people calling names or whatever if it's a part of some level of back and forth discussion on a real topic, or even fun banter.

I joke about banning people and whatnot but have never once done so seriously. I don't take this place serious enough for such things.

 

[twenty02]

But again I"m not placing blame on any one thing. I'm simply saying the totality of costs for big ticket items are making the american dream untenable for a growing population. education has always been the path to success. college tuition has exploded. fancy amenities, administrative bloat, all kinds of intra university reasons, as well as external forces like the economy/state funding etc. states were getting squeezed with medicare expenses etc limiting the amount that could be earmarked for universities. public funding hit historic lows not long ago and tuition offset the losses. students on average take longer to graduate today. combine those factors/forces and kids are coming out with more debt that takes longer to pay off. education will always be the pathway to "the american dream" for the lion's share of our population. the median household income today is $70k. some of these schools are that a year today. a car is $50k. twenty years ago the median household income was $42k and a car $20k in 90 it was $35k and $15k. 80 it was $21k and $7k.

i understand the impact of rates etc. the cost of the american dream has exploded and for the average joe wages aren't keeping up

So IGW has two login names?

 

[Crayfish57]

You post personal insults on probably 90% of your posts, and not much beyond that..... nobody gives a shit about people calling names or whatever if it's a part of some level of back and forth discussion on a real topic, or even fun banter.

I joke about banning people and whatnot but have never once done so seriously. I don't take this place serious enough for such things.

You wouldn't have called me that to my face, but had you you wouldve been looking at the ceiling. Call someone a dumb ass or whatever but I take hillbilly the same as a racial slur. So are you another hidden moderator?

 

[twenty02]

You wouldn't have called me that to my face, but had you you wouldve been looking at the ceiling. Call someone a dumb ass or whatever but I take hillbilly the same as a racial slur. So are you another hidden moderator?

Yes, I'm the puppet master. Be afraid.. lol

Who knew you were such a ❄️? Hell, the guy that will likely be the next Senator from Ohio made his fame and fortune from calling himself a hillbilly. You just seem like a very angry person that needs to rage out on the internet daily to feel better.

 

[mcmurtry66]

So IGW has two login names?

There's no conspiracy. I'm not inferring or implying anything other than the cost of big ticket items has made the american dream untenable for a growing number of people. if the average annual salary is the same as the price of a new car, out of state tuition at a public school, etc., we're not trending in a way that is healthy for the country. i didn't assign blame. didn't intimate that we ought to be exploring redistributive policies. just reality. pursuit of the american dream for the average joe is the bedrock of our country. i don't much care about your two thirty somethings with degrees doing well. they don't represent most people.

 

[Crayfish57]

Yes, I'm the puppet master. Be afraid.. lol

Who knew you were such a ❄️? Hell, the guy that will likely be the next Senator from Ohio made his fame and fortune from calling himself a hillbilly. You just seem like a very angry person that needs to rage out on the internet daily to feel better.

You seem the very same way. I just things should be judged evenly . There are words ambiguous of anyones race social standing or sex and some that aren't . I do enjoy calling liberals out for their hypocrisy. I have yet to see a conservative use the term Hillbilly and you obviously had some sort of burr up your ass from the start of your postings on here and think a lot of people are below you for some reason. You strike me as a miserable prick that is very insecure about yourself.

 

[twenty02]

There's no conspiracy. I'm not inferring or implying anything other than the cost of big ticket items has made the american dream untenable for a growing number of people.

Well I'll just say that this has been the talking point of every Democratic politician my entire life.

I don't necessarily even disagree with you, but the winds of the political world have certainly changed if so-called "right" leaning people are now thinking this way.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Well I'll just say that this has been the talking point of every Democratic politician my entire life.

I don't necessarily even disagree with you, but the winds of the political world have certainly changed if so-called "right" leaning people are now thinking this way.

So what. They, Dems, can recognize a problem/issue, and not know or have the right policy to remedy or even ameliorate it. It doesn't mean their talking point is wrong. It just means they don't know how to fix it. I believe that holds for many Dem policies. Right idea. Wrong plan.

 

[twenty02]

You seem the very same way. I just things should be judged evenly . There are words ambiguous of anyones race social standing or sex and some that aren't . I do enjoy calling liberals out for their hypocrisy. I have yet to see a conservative use the term Hillbilly and you obviously had some sort of burr up your ass from the start of your postings on here and think a lot of people are below you for some reason. You strike me as a miserable prick that is very insecure about yourself.

Well, actually I wasn't talking to you on this topic...I was responding to someone else and you felt you needed to jump in with a personal attack. Why don't you just let people respond themselves?

 

[twenty02]

So what. They, Dems, can recognize a problem/issue, and not know or have the right policy to remedy or even ameliorate it. It doesn't mean their talking point is wrong. It just means they don't know how to fix it. I believe that holds for many Dem policies. Right idea. Wrong plan.

That's fair, and I understand where you are coming from. I actually agree with you. But it's better to have an understanding of what the root causes of these issues are... and it really has very little to do with the fiscal policies of the govt.

 

[Crayfish57]

Well, actually I wasn't talking to you on this topic...I was responding to someone else and you felt you needed to jump in with a personal attack. Why don't you just let people respond themselves?

And your first comment was the same thing and a personal attack and I responded. I just love the self absorbed world liberals live in. I had posted in this thread long before you.

 

[mcmurtry66]

That's fair, and I understand where you are coming from. I actually agree with you. But it's better to have an understanding of what the root causes of these issues are... and it really has very little to do with the fiscal policies of the govt.

Never said a word about the root causes behind the costs of these big ticket items, nor fiscal policies of the govt as they do or don't relate to same, only commented as to the effects on the pursuit of the american dream. now you made me crabby with your little snide remark. i'm going to fire off a nasty text to the ex wife

 

[TomEric4756]

Seven dollar home heating oil may be enough to push Republican candidates across the finish line in New England races.

 

[twenty02]

And your first comment was the same thing and a personal attack and I responded. I just love the self absorbed world liberals live in. I had posted in this thread long before you.

Did I respond to any of your comments in this thread before you quoted me? No.

Yes, I posted a snarky response to Mcm, as he earlier said he actually didn't know what he was talking about. He's a big boy, and assumed he could handle it with his own response - which he did.

 

[twenty02]

Never said a word about the root causes behind the costs of these big ticket items, nor fiscal policies of the govt as they do or don't relate to same, only commented as to the effects on the pursuit of the american dream. now you made me crabby with your little snide remark. i'm going to fire off a nasty text to the ex wife

Lol... my response was totally snarky and I hooked you and a side fish with cray. Sorry, had a few beers with the boys watching TNF out. Had to get someone on the hook

 

[Crayfish57]

Lol... my response was totally snarky and I hooked you and a side fish with cray. Sorry, had a few beers with the boys watching TNF out. Had to get someone on the hook

Maybe we should both chalk this up to a few I was watching NBA

 

[mcmurtry66]

Lol... my response was totally snarky and I hooked you and a side fish with cray. Sorry, had a few beers with the boys watching TNF out. Had to get someone on the hook

yeah you caught us

 

[twenty02]

Maybe we should both chalk this up to a few I was watching NBA

I just want to state this for the record, AGAIN....I post on this board for entertainment..... and if I'm posting after 11pm EST you can assume I'm half in the bag.

 

[twenty02]

yeah you caught us

I'm ready for IUBB to start...... so we can all be bitching in the same direction.


Other than that asshat @Noodle

 

[Courtsensetwo]

I've not seen a single poster call you a maga.

Oh my.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

600k McMansion? You can’t get a floor of a three flat (usually 2-2/ 1200 sqft) for less than 500K.

That varies widely by market

 

[Noodle]

I'm ready for IUBB to start...... so we can all be bitching in the same direction.


Other than that asshat @Noodle

POTFH and POTF@twenty02

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

I didn't debate a single one of those things.... your blame on them is just sorely misplaced.

We've all discussed and critiqued for a number of years the misguided policy of the Federal Reserve which has been hyper- focused on supporting asset prices.... even if they never claim to be doing such things. But the reality is that people who own stocks and homes are much more politically active than those that don't. The last 12+ years of ZIRP has been an incredible, historic boon for asset owners (myself included).

why only pay attending to the monetary policy side? The fiscal side has been expansionary forever.

 

[snarlcakes]

That's fair, and I understand where you are coming from. I actually agree with you. But it's better to have an understanding of what the root causes of these issues are... and it really has very little to do with the fiscal policies of the govt.

That's not correct. Carrying excessive amounts of debt, which is all government's fault, is a major part of the issue.

 

[larsIU]

so we can all be bitching in the same direction.

 

[twenty02]

That's not correct. Carrying excessive amounts of debt, which is all government's fault, is a major part of the issue.

No not really.... the govt has carried large debt and run large deficits for decades without inflation being an issue. Inflation is driven by money supply, and specifically the Fed Reserve monetizing debt (and thereby increasing the money supply substantially).

 

[twenty02]

why only pay attending to the monetary policy side? The fiscal side has been expansionary forever.

"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”

-M. Friedman

The Fed Reserve increased the money supply by a whopping 40% during Covid.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”

-M. Friedman

The Fed Reserve increased the money supply by a whopping 40% during Covid.

And meanwhile Fed Spending did the same...

 

[snarlcakes]

No not really.... the govt has carried large debt and run large deficits for decades without inflation being an issue. Inflation is driven by money supply, and specifically the Fed Reserve monetizing debt (and thereby increasing the money supply substantially).

The debt loads weren't this high and we have had plenty of inflation over the past several decades. It was just in asset prices, education, health care, and housing. It didn't show up, as much, in other areas because of technology and off-shoring of jobs (and the ever changing way they measure CPI). Just to be clear, I agree the FED is responsible for inflation, but the printing of trillions of dollars is what drove inflation this time.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

Amamzing what you can learn when you take in reporting from someone not named CNN, MSNBC, FOX or NBC.

CBS does a much better job of presenting information that is not purely agenda-based.

They made most of their morning reporting about exactly what I am sying in this thread:

50% responding toa CBS poll list Economy or Inflation as their #1 concern
16% Abortion
7% gun violence

CNN/MSNBC only discuss abortion andTrumptrumptrumptrump

FOX only discusses crime and border.

From the CBS round table

Heidi Heitkamp covers her ears and says abortion is what matters.

Chris christie who is a reasonable Republican nailed it: "The Democrats have made a serious strategic mistake".

I think he is spot on.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Employment is still strong. Jobs are being created. Wage gains are being eroded by inflation, yes, but they're still ahead of what they were a year+ ago when the economy opened back up. As long as people can make a living, they can cope with most anything.

Are things rosy? No, of course not. But it's not the dystopian hell hole people make it out to be. My hope is that the Fed stands pat and lets the measures they've taken to date take hold. My gut feeling is that Powell has applied the brakes at just the right level it needs to and we don't need any more tightening at this point. It takes time for the economy to absorb and adjust. Let's let it.

 

[UncleMark]

View embedded media

Sounds like he and I are on the same page.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Sounds like he and I are on the same page.

One might argue they've overdone it already. Cracks are showing.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

I just like to throw this in for laughs

 

[UncleMark]

One might argue they've overdone it already. Cracks are showing.

Yes, I got that out of the interview. It also sounds like he thinks Powell is going to go even further, which is what I was concerned about.

 

[UncleMark]

I just like to throw this in for laughs

View embedded media

This is an example of why I think the White House and other influential entities have no business fvcking around on social media. All it does is create a vacuum for content that some nitwit has to fill, and more often than not it comes back to bite them.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Yes, I got that out of the interview. It also sounds like he thinks Powell is going to go even further, which is what I was concerned about.

And to be fair, it's also the EU and British central banks too.

 

[UncleMark]

And to be fair, it's also the EU and British central banks too.

If hacks like you and me can see the problem, why can't the bigshots?

 

[ribbont]

What about the rest of the world? How about the supply chain issues? Did you go to Cray's school of economic understanding?

Here's a good paper from the SF Fed Reserve about inflation.

Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?

Inflation rates in the United States and other developed economies have closely tracked each other historically. Problems with global supply chains and changes in spending patterns due to the COVID-19 pandemic have pushed up inflation worldwide. However, since the first half of 2021, U.S...

www.frbsf.org

Though the 2 stimulus checks and PPP in 2020 (passed by both parties), ARP combined with energy regulations added to inflation. Supply chain issues and the war have also contributed.

Here is an article about Biden's impact with ARP.

How responsible is Biden for high inflation?

The main area where Biden has faced criticism relates to outsized government spending.

thehill.com

The only issue I have with the article is the writer noting studies done assigning 3-4% increase in inflation due to ARP. But the next paragraph states ARP helped employment, but cites nothing as evidence.