It's the economy stupid

[UncleMark]

Employment is still strong. Jobs are being created. Wage gains are being eroded by inflation, yes, but they're still ahead of what they were a year+ ago when the economy opened back up. As long as people can make a living, they can cope with most anything.

Are things rosy? No, of course not. But it's not the dystopian hell hole people make it out to be. My hope is that the Fed stands pat and lets the measures they've taken to date take hold. My gut feeling is that Powell has applied the brakes at just the right level it needs to and we don't need any more tightening at this point. It takes time for the economy to absorb and adjust. Let's let it.

 

[mcmurtry66]

If only it was that simple. Let's ask Kanye.

It's so bad even Ye canceled Kanye

 

[mcmurtry66]

Employment is still strong. Jobs are being created. Wage gains are being eroded by inflation, yes, but they're still ahead of what they were a year+ ago when the economy opened back up. As long as people can make a living, they can cope with most anything.

Are things rosy? No, of course not. But it's not the dystopian hell hole people make it out to be. My hope is that the Fed stands pat and lets the measures they've taken to date take hold. My gut feeling is that Powell has applied the brakes at just the right level it needs to and we don't need any more tightening at this point. It takes time for the economy to absorb and adjust. Let's let it.

I'll disagree with you. I think it's really, really bad, and scary. The inflation via overheating the economy etc for my starbucks will sort itself out. all the covid attendant stuff is a bit of novelty related to same and is what it is. short term price costs suck but it'll fix itself. and i blame biden and the squad for exacerbating it. but again i think it's short term. i think we have real problems because of the prices of cars, new and used, houses, and college. i don't know enough about economics to assign blame on those issues, or if there's even anyone to blame, but they are fundamental to the "american dream" and becoming more and more unattainable. the average price of a new car is almost $50k. that's insane. college is insane. i can't imagine having multiple kids go through at once. homes. those are the big ticket items that sort of define family life

 

[larsIU]

Illuminati?

ROTHSCHILDS

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

ROTHSCHILDS

Bilderberg

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I'll disagree with you. I think it's really, really bad, and scary. The inflation via overheating the economy etc for my starbucks will sort itself out. all the covid attendant stuff is a bit of novelty related to same and is what it is. short term price costs suck but it'll fix itself. and i blame biden and the squad for exacerbating it. but again i think it's short term. i think we have real problems because of the prices of cars, new and used, houses, and college. i don't know enough about economics to assign blame on those issues, or if there's even anyone to blame, but they are fundamental to the "american dream" and becoming more and more unattainable. the average price of a new car is almost $50k. that's insane. college is insane. i can't imagine having multiple kids go through at once. homes. those are the big ticket items that sort of define family life

On housing, we haven't built enough houses for a long time. Builders lost so much in 2008 they were afraid to jump back in to the numbers they had been at. The same is happening with oil.

 

[UncleMark]

i don't know enough about economics to assign blame on those issues, or if there's even anyone to blame, but they are fundamental to the "american dream" and becoming more and more unattainable. the average price of a new car is almost $50k. that's insane. college is insane. homes. those are the big ticket items that sort of define family life

I'm not convinced that a $50K new car is required to experience the American dream. Buy a 3 year old Camry for $20K, for fvck's sake. Neither is a $600K McMansion. You don't need a 5-4 when a 3-2 will do. College is a problem, yes, but that began getting out of hand 20 years ago or more.

Right now everyone who wants a job can get one and it will pay substantially more than minimum wage. That means the economy is providing opportunities for nearly everyone. It may be a bit tougher currently to climb the economic ladder, but at least there's room on the ladder for everybody.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I'm not convinced that a $50K new car is required to experience the American dream. Buy a 3 year old Camry for $20K, for fvck's sake. Neither is a $600K McMansion. You don't need a 5-4 when a 3-2 will do. College is a problem, yes, but that began getting out of hand 20 years ago or more.

Right now everyone who wants a job can get one and it will pay substantially more than minimum wage. That means the economy is providing opportunities for nearly everyone. It may be a bit tougher currently to climb the economic ladder, but at least there's room on the ladder for everybody.

I was at happy hour so you're on notice for rambling. And I admit that this is one of the "better" parts of town. This is literally the first single family home that popped up near me and my work. 3-2. 2,000 sq feet. floor plan that's outdated and no one wants. small lot. $700,000. not malibu. not boulder. not palm. in flyover country. a ten minute WALK from the most dangerous city in america. no downtown. no mountains. no beach. not good.

428 Edgewood Dr, Clayton, MO 63105 | realtor.com®

View 31 photos for 428 Edgewood Dr, Clayton, MO 63105, a 3 bed, 2 bath, 2,134 Sq. Ft. single family home built in 1928 that was last sold on 12/15/2022.

www.realtor.com

 

[mcmurtry66]

On housing, we haven't built enough houses for a long time. Builders lost so much in 2008 they were afraid to jump back in to the numbers they had been at. The same is happening with oil.

that's kind of my dream for this last part of my journey. build a house. i wonder what that market looks like.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

No, admitting something Trump did was right.

You have missed a lot of my posts then. Have listed several accomplishments multiple times which is why so many of the leftys here call me a maga .

 

[UncleMark]

And I admit that this is one of the "better" parts of town. This is literally the first single family home that popped up near me and my work. 3-2. 2,000 sq feet. floor plan that's outdated and no one wants. small lot. $700,000.

So go to the next one.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

that's kind of my dream for this last part of my journey. build a house. i wonder what that market looks like.

Lumber is back down, builders are slowing down. Some parts an pieces still slow to get. Oddly…concrete is slow.

 

[mcmurtry66]

From Zillow. That's ridiculous for anywhere in Stl. Flyover country. And trust me there is nothing in clayton that's cool. Again the big ticket items, homes, college, cars are a problem. and i get you can move way out to wherever but that's not the point. the rate of price increases is untenable to maintain the american dream

On housing, we haven't built enough houses for a long time. Builders lost so much in 2008 they were afraid to jump back in to the numbers they had been at. The same is happening with oil.

So go to the next one.

​

​

Clayton Key Takeaways​

Typical Home Values: $770,272

 

[BigDoggyDogDude]

600k McMansion? You can’t get a floor of a three flat (usually 2-2/ 1200 sqft) for less than 500K.

 

[mcmurtry66]

if lumber is down why aren't they building? bc rates are up?

Lumber is back down, builders are slowing down. Some parts an pieces still slow to get. Oddly…concrete is slow.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

if lumber is down why aren't they building? bc rates are up?

Yes. New home sales are down 15% due to rates. Varies by market.

 

[mcmurtry66]

mcmansions in a decent neighborhood are over a mil. it's crazy

600k McMansion? You can’t get a floor of a three flat (usually 2-2/ 1200 sqft) for less than 500K.

 

[Spartans9312]

I'm not convinced that a $50K new car is required to experience the American dream. Buy a 3 year old Camry for $20K, for fvck's sake. Neither is a $600K McMansion. You don't need a 5-4 when a 3-2 will do. College is a problem, yes, but that began getting out of hand 20 years ago or more.

Right now everyone who wants a job can get one and it will pay substantially more than minimum wage. That means the economy is providing opportunities for nearly everyone. It may be a bit tougher currently to climb the economic ladder, but at least there's room on the ladder for everybody.

There was a 1/2 ton used Chevy pickup for sale…I Don’t know what bells and whistles were involved but the price was 84K. That’s here in the sticks.

 

[Spartans9312]

I was at happy hour so you're on notice for rambling. And I admit that this is one of the "better" parts of town. This is literally the first single family home that popped up near me and my work. 3-2. 2,000 sq feet. floor plan that's outdated and no one wants. small lot. $700,000. not malibu. not boulder. not palm. in flyover country. a ten minute WALK from the most dangerous city in america. no downtown. no mountains. no beach. not good.

428 Edgewood Dr, Clayton, MO 63105 | realtor.com®

View 31 photos for 428 Edgewood Dr, Clayton, MO 63105, a 3 bed, 2 bath, 2,134 Sq. Ft. single family home built in 1928 that was last sold on 12/15/2022.

www.realtor.com

Rule #1 when buying a house…you must be able to walk outside and take a piss on at least 3 sides of your lot without being able to see a neighbor’s house.

 

[BCCHoosier]

I was at happy hour so you're on notice for rambling. And I admit that this is one of the "better" parts of town. This is literally the first single family home that popped up near me and my work. 3-2. 2,000 sq feet. floor plan that's outdated and no one wants. small lot. $700,000. not malibu. not boulder. not palm. in flyover country. a ten minute WALK from the most dangerous city in america. no downtown. no mountains. no beach. not good.

428 Edgewood Dr, Clayton, MO 63105 | realtor.com®

View 31 photos for 428 Edgewood Dr, Clayton, MO 63105, a 3 bed, 2 bath, 2,134 Sq. Ft. single family home built in 1928 that was last sold on 12/15/2022.

www.realtor.com

Depressing for sure.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

I'll disagree with you. I think it's really, really bad, and scary. The inflation via overheating the economy etc for my starbucks will sort itself out. all the covid attendant stuff is a bit of novelty related to same and is what it is. short term price costs suck but it'll fix itself. and i blame biden and the squad for exacerbating it. but again i think it's short term. i think we have real problems because of the prices of cars, new and used, houses, and college. i don't know enough about economics to assign blame on those issues, or if there's even anyone to blame, but they are fundamental to the "american dream" and becoming more and more unattainable. the average price of a new car is almost $50k. that's insane. college is insane. i can't imagine having multiple kids go through at once. homes. those are the big ticket items that sort of define family life

Decades of easy credit and low interest pushed the cost of those big ticket items. That was deliberate. But I don’t think anybody is to blame. That’s what we all wanted.

 

[Crayfish57]

that's kind of my dream for this last part of my journey. build a house. i wonder what that market looks like.

Buy a good quality saw to start with and no 6.99 hammers either.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Buy a good quality saw to start with and no 6.99 hammers either.

Lol Cray. I couldn’t build a doll house with instructions. I didn’t mean myself

 

[Crayfish57]

Lumber is back down, builders are slowing down. Some parts an pieces still slow to get. Oddly…concrete is slow.

Its because concrete price is outrageous. I drive by a way too expensive house for the lot being built way off the road and they were poring a concrete drive last week. Besides making a mess and half closing the road it must be 1/8th of a mile long 12 ft Im guessing wide . The cost of just material had to be 20k with no wire etc and I couldnt see how thick but that would be 4 inch again just roughly

 

[Crayfish57]

Lol Cray. I couldn’t build a doll house with instructions. I didn’t mean myself

I knew what you meant. I can't imagine it anymore myself. I did a major remodel all by myself and kept costs down. One advantage at least here if you keep enough that it is still taxed by the original build date the taxes are a lot better.

 

[DANC]

I'm not convinced that a $50K new car is required to experience the American dream. Buy a 3 year old Camry for $20K, for fvck's sake. Neither is a $600K McMansion. You don't need a 5-4 when a 3-2 will do. College is a problem, yes, but that began getting out of hand 20 years ago or more.

Right now everyone who wants a job can get one and it will pay substantially more than minimum wage. That means the economy is providing opportunities for nearly everyone. It may be a bit tougher currently to climb the economic ladder, but at least there's room on the ladder for everybody.

Yeah, we should all live the way you want us to live. Otherwise, they deserve an economy that limits what they can afford.

 

[DANC]

You have missed a lot of my posts then. Have listed several accomplishments multiple times which is why so many of the leftys here call me a maga .

I've not seen a single poster call you a maga.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Employment is still strong. Jobs are being created. Wage gains are being eroded by inflation, yes, but they're still ahead of what they were a year+ ago when the economy opened back up. As long as people can make a living, they can cope with most anything.

Are things rosy? No, of course not. But it's not the dystopian hell hole people make it out to be. My hope is that the Fed stands pat and lets the measures they've taken to date take hold. My gut feeling is that Powell has applied the brakes at just the right level it needs to and we don't need any more tightening at this point. It takes time for the economy to absorb and adjust. Let's let it.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Employment is still strong. Jobs are being created. Wage gains are being eroded by inflation, yes, but they're still ahead of what they were a year+ ago when the economy opened back up. As long as people can make a living, they can cope with most anything.

Are things rosy? No, of course not. But it's not the dystopian hell hole people make it out to be. My hope is that the Fed stands pat and lets the measures they've taken to date take hold. My gut feeling is that Powell has applied the brakes at just the right level it needs to and we don't need any more tightening at this point. It takes time for the economy to absorb and adjust. Let's let it.

On a more serious note, real median income peaked in 2019

 

[dr.jb]

This is interesting and will be deliberated for eons. As an "always Trumper" (That I am labeled), I will say that this one Orchestrated Totally Organized effort against America was so powerful that even the strength of Trump failed dealing with it.
This is the one time that he Totally bent knee to " follow the science" .
Science is god..RIGHT?
Every fiber of Trumps being (and mine) said ..... "This doesn't add up". but he had to calculate... But THEY have such a powerful , self-invented , suddenly relevant and more so accepted co-opted narrative.... "I" (trump) have to follow them to show empathy. (Have I ever said **** you empathy people before???? If not, **** you empathy people).
Ok back to the point.
Trumps economy and multiple other successes, where overshadowed by a =sum(CIAx1000^+KGBx1000^) level of plan that several of us saw say happening, but it was so powerful and more so, bought into by pussy Americans that he was boxed in.

He was Boxed in, unless he wanted to truly be trump and gamble. He failed all of us on this becuase he gave in to this powerful machine that will, eventually control us all.

Moral of the story. Don't be a pussy, never cave when you KNOW there's an orchestrated set of lies against you, and there is a very very very powerful, cabal working to destroy America. and some of America is helping them.

so you're saying trump laid up....

 

[twenty02]

From Zillow. That's ridiculous for anywhere in Stl. Flyover country. And trust me there is nothing in clayton that's cool. Again the big ticket items, homes, college, cars are a problem. and i get you can move way out to wherever but that's not the point. the rate of price increases is untenable to maintain the american dream

​

​

Clayton Key Takeaways​

Typical Home Values: $770,272

Sounds like your issue should be with Jay Powell creating asset bubbles....

If you don't understand what you are talking about best to just not talk.

 

[Crayfish57]

Sounds like your issue should be with Jay Powell creating asset bubbles....

If you don't understand what you are talking about best to just not talk.

That would be the best advice for you to follow anyone will ever give you.

 

[twenty02]

That would be the best advice for you to follow anyone will ever give you.

STFU....adults are talking, hillbilly.

 

[mcmurtry66]

If you can read, which i'm not all that certain you can very well given your projection, you'd see that i didn't take issue with anyone on the big ticket items. got it? I simply conveyed that as it relates to the American Dream it's becoming untenable. Untenable means not able to be maintained. compare the median household income to average new car prices etc. and the trend isn't positive. if you are unable to read and comprehend what's actually written it's best not to post.

Sounds like your issue should be with Jay Powell creating asset bubbles....

If you don't understand what you are talking about best to just not talk.

 

[twenty02]

If you can read, which i'm not all that certain you can very well given your projection, you'd see that i didn't take issue with anyone on the big ticket items. got it? I simply conveyed that as it relates to the American Dream it's becoming untenable. Untenable means not able to be maintained. compare the median household income to average new car prices etc. and the trend isn't positive.

I didn't debate a single one of those things.... your blame on them is just sorely misplaced.

We've all discussed and critiqued for a number of years the misguided policy of the Federal Reserve which has been hyper- focused on supporting asset prices.... even if they never claim to be doing such things. But the reality is that people who own stocks and homes are much more politically active than those that don't. The last 12+ years of ZIRP has been an incredible, historic boon for asset owners (myself included).

 

[DANC]

If you can read, which i'm not all that certain you can very well given your projection, you'd see that i didn't take issue with anyone on the big ticket items. got it? I simply conveyed that as it relates to the American Dream it's becoming untenable. Untenable means not able to be maintained. compare the median household income to average new car prices etc. and the trend isn't positive. if you are unable to read and comprehend what's actually written it's best not to post.

Watch it - twentyIQ has friends in high places.

 

[Crayfish57]

Watch it - twentyIQ has friends in high places.

The PLO?

 

[DANC]

The PLO?

Higher

 

[Crayfish57]

Higher

uh oh I will be in trouble now. Funny how those people can post anything they want isn't it?

 

[twenty02]

I was at happy hour so you're on notice for rambling. And I admit that this is one of the "better" parts of town. This is literally the first single family home that popped up near me and my work. 3-2. 2,000 sq feet. floor plan that's outdated and no one wants. small lot. $700,000. not malibu. not boulder. not palm. in flyover country. a ten minute WALK from the most dangerous city in america. no downtown. no mountains. no beach. not good.

428 Edgewood Dr, Clayton, MO 63105 | realtor.com®

View 31 photos for 428 Edgewood Dr, Clayton, MO 63105, a 3 bed, 2 bath, 2,134 Sq. Ft. single family home built in 1928 that was last sold on 12/15/2022.

www.realtor.com

Real estate prices will correct. People are still using comps from a 3% mortgage environment vs the 7% of today. The buyer pool has shrunk considerably due to rate increases.

The reality is that a $700k home in the 3% rate environment was very achievable for many dual income, college educated households, even in their early 30s. And there are a lot of them out there. Most of my (married) friends and family had household incomes of $200-$250k+ by age 30. We're closer to 40 range now..... but my best friend lives in St Louis and he and his wife make over $300k combined in random F100 jobs. But at 7% the numbers just don't work for a lot... particular those with young kids.