The college rules are almost as dumb as penalty kicks in soccer. Well not quite that stupid..
It’s great to see overtime in the Super Bowl where they don’t play a different game.
- Thread starter 82hoosier
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I used to strongly dislike the college rules.
But now I think they're OK. At least it's fun.
It's 'fair' because they start the game under the rules and everybody knows them and deciding on the rules to decide a winner is always a bit arbitrary.
Not as stupid as the team winning the coin flip being a strong favorite to win on a FG like before the NFL changed to both teams getting a possession.
But now I think they're OK. At least it's fun.
It's 'fair' because they start the game under the rules and everybody knows them and deciding on the rules to decide a winner is always a bit arbitrary.
Not as stupid as the team winning the coin flip being a strong favorite to win on a FG like before the NFL changed to both teams getting a possession.
Shanahan needed some college guidance if both teams are gonna get the ball, play defense 1st!!!
I agree with defense first possession.
But, Shanahan's reason, and he says he ran analytics, is you want the third possession because that's when it's now sudden death.
However Reid says their analytics said kick, then on a TD (going second) you go for two... Which of course makes sense since if you only tie it now it's sudden death but the other team has a big advantage.
So IMO, Reid is correct. The advantage of knowing what you need helps you on 4th down decisions (which helped KC) and/or go for TD or FG, and I don't think the 3rd possession advantage is enough to overcome the other things. Since the 3rd possession is heavily discounted, as it may never happen.
But, each team could run analytics and come to the opposite conclusion based on each teams strengths. But Reid had to be pleased to have lost the coin flip and still got what he wanted.
Right, but the 49er's just finished a defensive stand in regulation & looked to be dead tired, thus Shanahan gave the defense a breather by taking the ball first.
I love the college rules. It basically takes the punting and kickoffs out of the game, which is fine after sitting for 3.5 hours to watch maybe 40 minutes of actual game play. I don't need to see touchbacks 4 hours in.
What's so great about an OT session where the teams can still end up in a tie? Obviously, the teams can't have a tie in playoff games, but they do in the regular season. I think the NFL's OT protocol is stupid. I'd take the college OT plan any day.
I've always felt exactly the same. Why, on Earth, would you suddenly start playing by differemt rules ? At the most critical time of the game, no less. Not that it would make sense at any point, but eliminating punt teams, field position, clock management, is just bizarre. I thought it was also odd that the NFL changes their OT rules in the playoffs. Makes absolutely no sense.
Their overtime game could be on a Sunday with a Thursday nite game coming up. College overtime rules can last forever
Hence mandatory
Mandatory 2 point plays after two OTs avoids that problem.
His reason was dumb. Fire the analytics guy who didn’t realize the MASSIVE advantage they handed to the Chiefs with that dumbass call (much larger even than the college game, where both teams start in FG range, and the go second option alternates).
I’m a huge fan of analytics but they only work if you input the correct data, which is trickier than it sounds.
If you plug in “how likely is it in a given possession that the Chiefs score a FG? TD? You will get the wrong answer. Try “how likely is it in a possession where THERE IS NO PUNT OPTION AND TIME IS NOT A FACTOR that the Chiefs…and that data is likely not available or available in such low quantity as to have poor predictive value.
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Sure, dueling analytics. Garbage in garbage out, good data in , maybe good data out.
ESPNs analytics guy says he ran thousands of simulations, which would include the 'no punt option and time is not a factor' - and he says simulation says the receiving team wins 50.2% .
Andy Reid says their analytics or sim says kick, Niners say their analytics or sim says receive. ESPN guy says receive, barely...
So Shanahan's reason probably isn't dumb. May be wrong. But seems close. I'd have kicked, knowing what you need on 4th down is huge. But sims seem to say it's a wash. Which should mean that third possession idea is big, if it overcomes (or if not, nearly overcomes) the advantages of going second.
Yeah I think you’re right.
There is a good paper from an outfit called “Frontiers in AI” that makes a convincing case for taking the ball first in college ball b/c the odds are no worse in the first 2 OTs but way better in OT3 (70/30).
They also conclude that what does matter greatly in OT is being the favored team, so the underdog should do all they can to win in regulation (go for 2 or etc.).
But did the analytics take into account who the QB was? Mahomes destroys all analytics!
Very interesting. I wouldn't have predicted going first in college OT.
(I searched for that paper too, which had other interesting links, TY.)
And in the actual game, knowing they needed to go for it on 4th down not in FG range yet, made that decision easy for KC. Tough to stop Mahomes when he gets four tries.
Longest overtime game in history was with mandatory 2pt play. Illinios vs Penn State 2021 I believe
