Indiana primary

[Marvin the Martian]

There were not too many surprised last night, I think everyone expected Braun to get the nomination for governor. I'm not sure either would have been a surprise in Spartz v Goodrich, so Spartz's percentage may have been a bit higher than I would have thought. Statewide, Haley won 21% of the vote. In Hamilton County it was 33%.


Since Biden isn't opposed, it isn't as easy to figure out the number of non-Biden Democrats. Michigan and Minnesota indicated there might be a hefty number.

It could be that Democrats crossed over to vote for Haley. In which case that means nothing. But it is hard to get people to go out and vote in a primary, period. So that 33%, or even 21%, seems high just to be that. And Haley is getting about 20% in closed primaries. So the fall election may well be determined by that 20%. They didn't want Trump enough to vote for someone who hasn't been in the race for months, will they go ahead and vote Trump in the fall.

You can see in the Wiki that before last night, Trump is averaging 75%.

Results of the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Some closed primaries and Trump's percentage

Kansas 75.5
Florida 81.2
Wyoming 100 (no one else on ballot)
Pennsylvania 83

I am not pointing this out to say Biden will win as I don't think he will (the Republicans still have a structural advantage in the Electoral College). I am saying this is going to be an election determined by who is willing to hold their nose and vote. I once heard Johnny Carson use the phrase, "The evil of two lessors". That is where we are.

 

[twenty02]

There were not too many surprised last night, I think everyone expected Braun to get the nomination for governor. I'm not sure either would have been a surprise in Spartz v Goodrich, so Spartz's percentage may have been a bit higher than I would have thought. Statewide, Haley won 21% of the vote. In Hamilton County it was 33%.


Since Biden isn't opposed, it isn't as easy to figure out the number of non-Biden Democrats. Michigan and Minnesota indicated there might be a hefty number.

It could be that Democrats crossed over to vote for Haley. In which case that means nothing. But it is hard to get people to go out and vote in a primary, period. So that 33%, or even 21%, seems high just to be that. And Haley is getting about 20% in closed primaries. So the fall election may well be determined by that 20%. They didn't want Trump enough to vote for someone who hasn't been in the race for months, will they go ahead and vote Trump in the fall.

You can see in the Wiki that before last night, Trump is averaging 75%.

Results of the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Some closed primaries and Trump's percentage

Kansas 75.5
Florida 81.2
Wyoming 100 (no one else on ballot)
Pennsylvania 83

I am not pointing this out to say Biden will win as I don't think he will (the Republicans still have a structural advantage in the Electoral College). I am saying this is going to be an election determined by who is willing to hold their nose and vote. I once heard Johnny Carson use the phrase, "The evil of two lessors". That is where we are.

Bad numbers from Hamilton county for Trump.
Haley getting 33% after dropping out two months ago.

Hamilton cty isn't going to swing Indiana.... But counties very similar to Hamilton cty across the country in swing states are going to determine the election.

 

[jaygyure]

There were not too many surprised last night, I think everyone expected Braun to get the nomination for governor. I'm not sure either would have been a surprise in Spartz v Goodrich, so Spartz's percentage may have been a bit higher than I would have thought. Statewide, Haley won 21% of the vote. In Hamilton County it was 33%.


Since Biden isn't opposed, it isn't as easy to figure out the number of non-Biden Democrats. Michigan and Minnesota indicated there might be a hefty number.

It could be that Democrats crossed over to vote for Haley. In which case that means nothing. But it is hard to get people to go out and vote in a primary, period. So that 33%, or even 21%, seems high just to be that. And Haley is getting about 20% in closed primaries. So the fall election may well be determined by that 20%. They didn't want Trump enough to vote for someone who hasn't been in the race for months, will they go ahead and vote Trump in the fall.

You can see in the Wiki that before last night, Trump is averaging 75%.

Results of the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Some closed primaries and Trump's percentage

Kansas 75.5
Florida 81.2
Wyoming 100 (no one else on ballot)
Pennsylvania 83

I am not pointing this out to say Biden will win as I don't think he will (the Republicans still have a structural advantage in the Electoral College). I am saying this is going to be an election determined by who is willing to hold their nose and vote. I once heard Johnny Carson use the phrase, "The evil of two lessors". That is where we are.

I don't think the presidential primaries mean a damn thing at this point anymore and would be hesitant in trying to draw any conclusions as to what may happen in November based on them. I think the winner in November will be whatever party can get out the vote the most. I know many Democrats who have no interest in voting for Biden and many Republicans who have no interest in voting for Trump. Doubt many of those will actually switch party and vote for the other - it is a question of who will stay home or vote a third party candidate

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Bad numbers from Hamilton county for Trump.
Haley getting 33% after dropping out two months ago.

Hamilton cty isn't going to swing Indiana.... But counties very similar to Hamilton cty across the country in swing states are going to determine the election.

Right, it was the suburbs that beat Trump, he lost ground there pretty much everywhere in the country, including deep red states (Hamilton County).

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Also from Pew:

In 2020, Biden improved upon Clinton’s vote share with suburban voters: 45% supported Clinton in 2016 vs. 54% for Biden in 2020. This shift was also seen among White voters: Trump narrowly won White suburban voters by 4 points in 2020 (51%-47%); he carried this group by 16 points in 2016 (54%-38%)​

Behind Biden’s 2020 Victory

A new analysis of 2020 validated voters examines change and continuity in the electorate, both of which contributed to Joe Biden’s victory. It looks at how new voters and voters who turned out in either 2016, 2018 or both voted in the 2020 presidential election, and offers a detailed portrait of...

www.pewresearch.org

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I don't think the presidential primaries mean a damn thing at this point anymore and would be hesitant in trying to draw any conclusions as to what may happen in November based on them. I think the winner in November will be whatever party can get out the vote the most. I know many Democrats who have no interest in voting for Biden and many Republicans who have no interest in voting for Trump. Doubt many of those will actually switch party and vote for the other - it is a question of who will stay home or vote a third party candidate

I think you are right, it is a question of voting for one's party or leaving it blank (or voting 3rd). Not many are going to switch their red/blue vote.

 

[hoot1]

There were not too many surprised last night, I think everyone expected Braun to get the nomination for governor. I'm not sure either would have been a surprise in Spartz v Goodrich, so Spartz's percentage may have been a bit higher than I would have thought. Statewide, Haley won 21% of the vote. In Hamilton County it was 33%.


Since Biden isn't opposed, it isn't as easy to figure out the number of non-Biden Democrats. Michigan and Minnesota indicated there might be a hefty number.

It could be that Democrats crossed over to vote for Haley. In which case that means nothing. But it is hard to get people to go out and vote in a primary, period. So that 33%, or even 21%, seems high just to be that. And Haley is getting about 20% in closed primaries. So the fall election may well be determined by that 20%. They didn't want Trump enough to vote for someone who hasn't been in the race for months, will they go ahead and vote Trump in the fall.

You can see in the Wiki that before last night, Trump is averaging 75%.

Results of the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Some closed primaries and Trump's percentage

Kansas 75.5
Florida 81.2
Wyoming 100 (no one else on ballot)
Pennsylvania 83

I am not pointing this out to say Biden will win as I don't think he will (the Republicans still have a structural advantage in the Electoral College). I am saying this is going to be an election determined by who is willing to hold their nose and vote. I once heard Johnny Carson use the phrase, "The evil of two lessors". That is where we are.

The most interesting race for me was the 5th Congressional race with nine candidates, but with only two headliners...incumbent Victoria Spartz and businessman Chuck Goodrich.

Early on it looked as if Goodrich would easily prevail when Spartz had announced she wasn't running. Spartz then changed her mind, and both ran negative ads with Goodrich loaning his own campaign a million dollars.

IMO the ad which might have won the race for Spartz came at the end. The ad featured the teenage Spartz daughters endorsing their Mother. The ad concluded with a smiling and proud mother standing with her daughters.

The emotional ad was in complete contrast to the brutal ads by both candidates during the campaign and in my opinion garnered the female votes for Spartz which gave her a five point victory (38% to 33%).

Proving once again that emotions and likeability can play a big roll in political elections.

 

[NewGuyToTheBoard]

I thought Spartz was stepping down? Did she change her mind?

I enjoy watching her call people Commies.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

The most interesting race for me was the 5th Congressional race with nine candidates, but with only two headliners...incumbent Victoria Spartz and businessman Chuck Goodrich.

Early on it looked as if Goodrich would easily prevail when Spartz had announced she wasn't running. Spartz then changed her mind, and both ran negative ads with Goodrich loaning his own campaign a million dollars.

IMO the ad which might have won the race for Spartz came at the end. The ad featured the teenage Spartz daughters endorsing their Mother. The ad concluded with a smiling and proud mother standing with her daughters.

The emotional ad was in complete contrast to the brutal ads by both candidates during the campaign and in my opinion garnered the females votes for Spartz which gave her a five point victory (38% to 33%).

Proving once again that emotions and likeability can play a big roll in political elections.
complete

I agree, that last ad was really good. I think campaigns need to return to uplifting in the final days.

The rest just made me sad at how pathetic we voters must be.

 

[mrhighlife]

Haley got 21%? In Indiana? Is that troubling for Team Trump?

 

[IUCrazy2]

The most interesting race for me was the 5th Congressional race with nine candidates, but with only two headliners...incumbent Victoria Spartz and businessman Chuck Goodrich.

Early on it looked as if Goodrich would easily prevail when Spartz had announced she wasn't running. Spartz then changed her mind, and both ran negative ads with Goodrich loaning his own campaign a million dollars.

IMO the ad which might have won the race for Spartz came at the end. The ad featured the teenage Spartz daughters endorsing their Mother. The ad concluded with a smiling and proud mother standing with her daughters.

The emotional ad was in complete contrast to the brutal ads by both candidates during the campaign and in my opinion garnered the female votes for Spartz which gave her a five point victory (38% to 33%).

Proving once again that emotions and likeability can play a big roll in political elections.

Goodrich just came off as a dick. Spartz was kind of the "meh" status quo pick and I don't think her heart is really even in it that much. There weren't any candidates that did anything to convince me it was worth my while to go vote for any of them.

Our Governor picks are trash in November.

 

[UncleMark]

Haley got 21%? In Indiana? Is that troubling for Team Trump?

It should be. And we've seen similar results across the country.

 

[Mas-sa-suta]

It should be. And we've seen similar results across the country.

She won't be on any November ballots, as you know.

 

[mrhighlife]

She won't be on any November ballots, as you know.

The theory is their may be more "never Trump" Republicans than their were in 2020. Not sure that's the case though.

partisanship aside, it's an interesting theory to consider.

 

[UncleMark]

The theory is their may be more "never Trump" Republicans than their were in 2020. Not sure that's the case though.

I can't imagine Trump garnering more votes from principled Republicans this year than 2020 after seeing what he's capable of since the last election.

 

[Stuffshot]

Bad numbers from Hamilton county for Trump.
Haley getting 33% after dropping out two months ago.

Hamilton cty isn't going to swing Indiana.... But counties very similar to Hamilton cty across the country in swing states are going to determine the election.

You're right of course.

But the red voters in Hamilton County are more educated and prosperous than the red voters in all those small red counties all over the rest of Indiana. Hamilton County is more willing to try new things and change than most of the other red counties. Hamilton County seems like the red part of northern Marion County that moved further north.

Red voters in the economically depressed/ less populated parts of Indiana will continue to vote blindly for their lord and savior Trump.

 

[Mas-sa-suta]

I can't imagine Trump garnering more votes from principled Republicans this year than 2020 after seeing what he's capable of since the last election.

Yeah, Republicans have principles

If you don't like them, they have other principles.

 

[All4You]

Yeah, Republicans have principles

If you don't like them, they have other principles.