I think I can finally draw a conclusion about the Mueller probe

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I've been very careful not to read anything into what comes out about the Mueller probe, but I think it's fair to engage in a little speculation now, and that speculation is this: Paul Manafort is royally screwed.

Between Gates cutting a deal, some random foreign lawyer cutting a deal out of nowhere, mysterious new sealed filings in the case (which alone wouldn't mean anything), and now reports that Mueller is looking into whether Manafort offered a quid pro quo of a White House job in exchange for personal loans, I think it's clear that Manafort is one of the big fish. By that, I mean prosecutors will often work their way up the criminal pyramid, cutting deals at lower levels to target someone at the top. At least in this phase of the investigation, Manafort appears to be at the top.

The banker that gave Manafort the loans did not end up getting a job in the White House. If Manafort is guilty of this, Trump owes a huge favor to whomever it is on his team who advised against giving this guy a job.

 

[sglowrider]

Manafort is the swivel joint that gets to Trump either for collusion/conspiracy and/or money laundering - the case of distant past (money laundering) or near past (Russian collusion). Failing that, Sweet Cheeks Kushner will be another target.

Its a target rich environment.

 

[iu_a_att]

I've been very careful not to read anything into what comes out about the Mueller probe, but I think it's fair to engage in a little speculation now, and that speculation is this: Paul Manafort is royally screwed.

Between Gates cutting a deal, some random foreign lawyer cutting a deal out of nowhere, mysterious new sealed filings in the case (which alone wouldn't mean anything), and now reports that Mueller is looking into whether Manafort offered a quid pro quo of a White House job in exchange for personal loans, I think it's clear that Manafort is one of the big fish. By that, I mean prosecutors will often work their way up the criminal pyramid, cutting deals at lower levels to target someone at the top. At least in this phase of the investigation, Manafort appears to be at the top.

The banker that gave Manafort the loans did not end up getting a job in the White House. If Manafort is guilty of this, Trump owes a huge favor to whomever it is on his team who advised against giving this guy a job.

Speaking of quid pro quo's there is a really big one possible with respect to the changing of the GOP platform on Ukraine. Manafort is right in the middle of that one too.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Speaking of quid pro quo's there is a really big one possible with respect to the changing of the GOP platform on Ukraine. Manafort is right in the middle of that one too.

Yeah, that was always weird, and it deserves political scrutiny, but I'm not sure there's any chance any crime was actually committed there.

 

[iu_a_att]

Yeah, that was always weird, and it deserves political scrutiny, but I'm not sure there's any chance any crime was actually committed there.

it isn't ok to promise someone a federal job in return for immediate legal financial support but it is okay to offer a hostile power the promise of changed federal policy in exchange for immediate illegal campaign support? Honest question.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

it isn't ok to promise someone a federal job in return for immediate legal financial support but it is okay to offer a hostile power the promise of changed federal policy in exchange for immediate illegal campaign support? Honest question.

Well, first of all, a platform change might not be a promise of any policy change, but, yes, a promise of anything in exchange for an illegal donation would be a crime. Hell, accepting an illegal donation without a promise would be a crime. But the platform change doesn't prove any of that happened. It might just be a platform change. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

 

[iu_a_att]

Well, first of all, a platform change might not be a promise of any policy change, but, yes, a promise of anything in exchange for an illegal donation would be a crime. Hell, accepting an illegal donation without a promise would be a crime. But the platform change doesn't prove any of that happened. It might just be a platform change. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

Sometimes a job offer is just a job offer too. The OP suggested that Manafort is increasingly in the cross hairs and cites an article suggesting the Mueller is investigating Manafort for offering a quid pro quo to some banker in exchange for favorable loan terms. One might wonder whether the platform change was a similar kind of deal executed by Manafort in order to win favor with the oligarch who owes him money.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

And with the new filings, I repeat: Manafort is royally screwed.

And also, apparently an idiot.

 

[sglowrider]

Sometimes a job offer is just a job offer too. The OP suggested that Manafort is increasingly in the cross hairs and cites an article suggesting the Mueller is investigating Manafort for offering a quid pro quo to some banker in exchange for favorable loan terms. One might wonder whether the platform change was a similar kind of deal executed by Manafort in order to win favor with the oligarch who owes him money.

Quid pro quo is normal especially for the plush appointments like ambassadorship to London etc. But affecting policy on behalf of foreign (interfering) powers... thats different level.

 

[SuperHoosierFan]

And with the new filings, I repeat: Manafort is royally screwed.

And also, apparently an idiot.

Manafort could be worried that if he testifies he might have relatives who accidentally shoot themselves in the back of the head or fall out a window. The type of Russians he was probably getting money from don’t take kindly to people who work against them.

 

[sglowrider]

Manafort could be worried that if he testifies he might have relatives who accidentally shoot themselves in the back of the head or fall out a window. The type of Russians he was probably getting money from don’t take kindly to people who work against them.

Witness protection with plastic surgery.

Let me introduce to you... Ms. Paula Beaufort

 

[sglowrider]

And with the new filings, I repeat: Manafort is royally screwed.

And also, apparently an idiot.

Greed gets you every time.

 

[SuperHoosierFan]

Witness protection with plastic surgery.

Let me introduce to you... Ms. Paula Beaufort

The dude looks like he’s already had some kind of work done. Something about his face ain’t right.

 

[sglowrider]

The dude looks like he’s already had some kind of work done. Something about his face ain’t right.

without work done:

 

[sglowrider]

Spoiler: Hello... hello...oh..

 

[iu_a_att]

More on the Russia probe...apparently Russian agents "previewed" the Trump campaign on the plan for releasing the hacked DNC material.
The Justsecurity blog covers the potential legal liabilities this creates for those involved. :

Prior to the memo, we knew that a Russian agent told Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos of “Moscow possessing ‘dirt’” on Hillary Clinton “in the form of ‘thousands of emails,’” according to Papadopoulos’s plea statement. The memo went a legally significant step further. As Rep. Adam Schiff recently told Chris Hayes, “our memo discloses for the first time that the Russians previewed to Papadopoulos that they could help with disseminating these stolen emails.” Rep. Schiff added, “When Donald Trump openly called on the Russians to hack Hillary Clinton’s emails, they’d be richly rewarded if they released these to the press, his campaign had already been put on notice that the Russians were prepared to do just that and disseminate these stolen emails.” (The full transcript and video clip is below.)
...
A legally important question is what the Trump campaign did after the Russians previewed that they could help disseminate the stolen emails. If Trump campaign officials consulted with the Russians on their plans to disseminate the emails, it could involve direct violations of campaign finance laws (see the statement below from leading election law expert Paul Seamus Ryan). If Trump campaign officials gave tacit assent or approval or support, it could directly implicate them in the “conspiracy to defraud the United States” by evading the Federal Election Commission—the very conspiracy for which Mueller has already indicted thirteen Russian officials (see the statement below by former White House official and also top election law expert Bob Bauer). If Papadopoulos intentionally encouraged the Russians and if he was instructed to do so by other campaign officials, they could be liable as accomplices (see statements below from law professors and former federal prosecutors Barbara McQuade and Alex Whiting). The Trump campaign as an organization could also be criminally liable (see statement below from McQuade). Finally, if members of the Trump campaign tried to conceal the facts of a crime (potentially including either the original DNC hack or the dissemination of the stolen emails) they could be guilty of “misprision of a felony” (see statements below by former federal prosecutors including Renato Mariotti).​