How long is too long?

[UncleMark]

How long will we be able to keep this up? I mean the lockdown of the economy, the social distancing, the joblessness, the end of restaurants, spectator sports, churchgoing?

My out of my arse thinking is that we need to be looking at beginning a return to some kind of normal -- new or otherwise -- somewhere around the first of June. Not full bore, but with some concrete steps that can be seen as a beginning of the end, with that end perhaps being in time for Christmas.

Now what those concrete steps might be, I have no idea. All I know is that people have a breaking point, and I think we need to understand that something will need to happen before that is reached, or it will get ugly. Ranger brought this up some time back, and it was met with some resistance. At the time it may have been "too soon"; we were getting hammered from all sides and had little to no data or experience or trends to even base a discussion on.

 

[Hoopsdoc1978]

Talked to my boss yesterday. He said that when we do go back, we’ll be doing things completely different than what we have in the past. More employee spacing, staggered breaks and lunches, increased cleanliness, pretty much everything. Apparently, they are trying to start from scratch. I’m guessing that’s the case at most employers.

I have no idea what that means in terms of a timeframe, but I’m guessing it’s not good.

 

[i'vegotwinners]

How long will we be able to keep this up? I mean the lockdown of the economy, the social distancing, the joblessness, the end of restaurants, spectator sports, churchgoing?

My out of my arse thinking is that we need to be looking at beginning a return to some kind of normal -- new or otherwise -- somewhere around the first of June. Not full bore, but with some concrete steps that can be seen as a beginning of the end, with that end perhaps being in time for Christmas.

Now what those concrete steps might be, I have no idea. All I know is that people have a breaking point, and I think we need to understand that something will need to happen before we that is reached, or it will get ugly. Ranger brought this up some time back, and it was met with some resistance. At the time it may have been "too soon"; we were getting hammered from all sides and had little to no data or experience or trends to even base a discussion on.

Anne Frank thinks you're an amazingly strong person to have persevered this long.

especially considering that day your HBO and Netflix went out for 2 mins due to the rain storm, and the day you misplaced the remote and couldn't pause Fast Times At Ridgemont strategically, and that day the McDonalds drive up window was backed up half way around the building, and you forgot to bring your Elton John 8 track with you in case of such an emergency, not to mention the time you were down to only 4 rolls of 2 ply in reserve, and suicide was looking like a viable option in the case of the unthinkable.

 

[iuwclurker]

Anne Frank thinks you're an amazingly strong person to have persevered this long.

especially considering that day your HBO and Netflix went out for 2 mins due to the rain storm, and the day you misplaced the remote and couldn't pause Fast Times At Ridgemont strategically, and that day the McDonalds drive up window was backed up half way around the building, and you forgot to bring your Elton John 8 track with you in case of such an emergency, not to mention the time you were down to only 4 rolls of 2 ply in reserve, and suicide was looking like a viable option in the case of the unthinkable.

little brother is watching you?

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

How long will we be able to keep this up? I mean the lockdown of the economy, the social distancing, the joblessness, the end of restaurants, spectator sports, churchgoing?

My out of my arse thinking is that we need to be looking at beginning a return to some kind of normal -- new or otherwise -- somewhere around the first of June. Not full bore, but with some concrete steps that can be seen as a beginning of the end, with that end perhaps being in time for Christmas.

Now what those concrete steps might be, I have no idea. All I know is that people have a breaking point, and I think we need to understand that something will need to happen before that is reached, or it will get ugly. Ranger brought this up some time back, and it was met with some resistance. At the time it may have been "too soon"; we were getting hammered from all sides and had little to no data or experience or trends to even base a discussion on.

you’ve finally come around? Goat thinks we need 18 more months

 

[iuwclurker]

How long will we be able to keep this up? I mean the lockdown of the economy, the social distancing, the joblessness, the end of restaurants, spectator sports, churchgoing?

My out of my arse thinking is that we need to be looking at beginning a return to some kind of normal -- new or otherwise -- somewhere around the first of June. Not full bore, but with some concrete steps that can be seen as a beginning of the end, with that end perhaps being in time for Christmas.

Now what those concrete steps might be, I have no idea. All I know is that people have a breaking point, and I think we need to understand that something will need to happen before that is reached, or it will get ugly. Ranger brought this up some time back, and it was met with some resistance. At the time it may have been "too soon"; we were getting hammered from all sides and had little to no data or experience or trends to even base a discussion on.

With social distancing, it really can’t be too long…

 

[mcmurtry66]

How long will we be able to keep this up? I mean the lockdown of the economy, the social distancing, the joblessness, the end of restaurants, spectator sports, churchgoing?

My out of my arse thinking is that we need to be looking at beginning a return to some kind of normal -- new or otherwise -- somewhere around the first of June. Not full bore, but with some concrete steps that can be seen as a beginning of the end, with that end perhaps being in time for Christmas.

Now what those concrete steps might be, I have no idea. All I know is that people have a breaking point, and I think we need to understand that something will need to happen before that is reached, or it will get ugly. Ranger brought this up some time back, and it was met with some resistance. At the time it may have been "too soon"; we were getting hammered from all sides and had little to no data or experience or trends to even base a discussion on.

According to the model the nation is at its peak today. Absent state’s objections, we’ll be back in a month. Mid-May. Trump’s angst coupled with the nation’s angst will cause us to risk it.

 

[Standard Issue]

According to the model the nation is at its peak today. Absent state’s objections, we’ll be back in a month. Mid-May. Trump’s angst coupled with the nation’s angst will cause us to risk it.

And then a secondary bounce around July?

 

[mcmurtry66]

And then a secondary bounce around July?

No idea. Certainly possible. And what’s an “acceptable” amount of ongoing cases.

 

[twenty02]

According to the model the nation is at its peak today. Absent state’s objections, we’ll be back in a month. Mid-May. Trump’s angst coupled with the nation’s angst will cause us to risk it.

Every decision will be made at the state level.... not sure what you classify as "back". I think things will start re- opening at some level by beginning of June.... but it's not going to be like flipping a switch and everything goes back to normal.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Every decision will be made at the state level.... not sure what you classify as "back". I think things will start re- opening at some level by beginning of June.... but it's not going to be like flipping a switch and everything goes back to normal.

Efforts to return to most jobs with precautions. It might be a graduated return, but I still think it will commence sooner than most think. May. TX is already ramping up for same.

 

[sglowrider]

And then a secondary bounce around July?

We have the 2.5 wave now and the measures have just gone up. Escalated from previous -- its now a semi-lockdown. Started 4 days ago.
Essential shops can be open -- food stalls, restaurants are open but only for takeaway. I can exercise outdoors etc.

But now:

All shoppers must wear masks in supermarkets and malls, or be denied entry

I picked up my freebie reusable mask last weekend but its so bloody hot to use. I think I will using my stash of surgical to go shopping.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

Anne Frank thinks you're an amazingly strong person to have persevered this long.

especially considering that day your HBO and Netflix went out for 2 mins due to the rain storm, and the day you misplaced the remote and couldn't pause Fast Times At Ridgemont strategically, and that day the McDonalds drive up window was backed up half way around the building, and you forgot to bring your Elton John 8 track with you in case of such an emergency, not to mention the time you were down to only 4 rolls of 2 ply in reserve, and suicide was looking like a viable option in the case of the unthinkable.

Is Anne Franking somebody like the inverse of Godwin?

Virtue signal much?

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

How long will we be able to keep this up? I mean the lockdown of the economy, the social distancing, the joblessness, the end of restaurants, spectator sports, churchgoing?

My out of my arse thinking is that we need to be looking at beginning a return to some kind of normal -- new or otherwise -- somewhere around the first of June. Not full bore, but with some concrete steps that can be seen as a beginning of the end, with that end perhaps being in time for Christmas.

Now what those concrete steps might be, I have no idea. All I know is that people have a breaking point, and I think we need to understand that something will need to happen before that is reached, or it will get ugly. Ranger brought this up some time back, and it was met with some resistance. At the time it may have been "too soon"; we were getting hammered from all sides and had little to no data or experience or trends to even base a discussion on.

Note that I brought it up a week ago but I was attempting to make the point that we should start thinking about how long is too long and I wasn’t advocating going back right then.

IMO, having quick and reliable antibody tests can speed the return to normal more quickly. I think a lot of us will find out we had it and cleared it and should be immune to it. If that becomes possible, we can get a lot of people back in to the mix.

 

[twenty02]

Efforts to return to most jobs with precautions. It might be a graduated return, but I still think it will commence sooner than most think. May. TX is already ramping up for same.

I'm not that optimistic. I just don't see anything approaching normal for a long while.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/492258-experts-fear-national-naivete-on-covid-optimism

How many companies are going to start sending their employees anywhere for travel? When is anyone going to start taking leisure trips? When is the consumer going to want to go out shopping at the mall, or hanging out in a busy bar/ restaurant?

I believe most that have remote work options will continue to be encouraged doing so for a very long while.... which puts a big demand damper on everything from restaurant spending to oil use.

All the ripple effects are too many to name.... Mark's company makes promotional items for conferences?.... who the hell is going to schedule a large conference in the next year?

 

[mcmurtry66]

I'm not that optimistic. I just don't see anything approaching normal for a long while.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/492258-experts-fear-national-naivete-on-covid-optimism

How many companies are going to start sending their employees anywhere for travel? When is anyone going to start taking leisure trips? When is the consumer going to want to go out shopping at the mall, or hanging out in a busy bar/ restaurant?

I believe most that have remote work options will continue to be encouraged doing so for a very long while.... which puts a big demand damper on everything from restaurant spending to oil use.

All the ripple effects are too many to name.... Mark's company makes promotional items for conferences.... who the hell is going to schedule a large conference in the next year?

For sure. I think “social” activities and consumer/retail will be slow to return - but I think most industry/pro services will return next month - irresponsible or not.

 

[hoosboot]

For sure. I think “social” activities and consumer/retail will be slow to return - but I think most industry/pro services will return next month - irresponsible or not.

I doubt that is the case here. They've already announced that stay at home policies will continue through at least May 15, which means no non-essential businesses open until at least then. I cant see them opening up filming in Los Angeles before early-mid June and we're currently planning on a July 1st restart for most projects. And I seriously doubt my kids are going back to school this school year (which was supposed to end June 12th.) I will be extremely surprised if they lift anything before June 1st.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I doubt that is the case here. They've already announced that stay at home policies will continue through at least May 15, which means no non-essential businesses open until at least then. I cant see them opening up filming in Los Angeles before early-mid June and we're currently planning on a July 1st restart for most projects. And I seriously doubt my kids are going back to school this school year (which was supposed to end June 12th.) I will be extremely surprised if they lift anything before June 1st.

Agreed. And I was too lazy with my post. I think a concerted, national effort will begin in May, early May even, to encourage the country to start the process of a graduated opening. Where, when, and how will depend on state by state circumstances/conditions and just how risk averse their respective governors are: see TX vs VA.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I'm not that optimistic. I just don't see anything approaching normal for a long while.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/492258-experts-fear-national-naivete-on-covid-optimism

How many companies are going to start sending their employees anywhere for travel? When is anyone going to start taking leisure trips? When is the consumer going to want to go out shopping at the mall, or hanging out in a busy bar/ restaurant?

I believe most that have remote work options will continue to be encouraged doing so for a very long while.... which puts a big demand damper on everything from restaurant spending to oil use.

All the ripple effects are too many to name.... Mark's company makes promotional items for conferences?.... who the hell is going to schedule a large conference in the next year?

When we do reopen, we are going to reopen into an entirely different economy. It could still be a successful one, but we aren't just going to pick up where we left off.

Before this hit, about 51% of all food dollars were spent at restaurants. Even as carryout is increasing around the nation, that number has dropped dramatically, and when restaurants reopen with a new model that focuses heavily on carryout business, they might be able to survive, but they won't be bringing back all their furloughed employees. Eventually, those employees will need to find ways to fit into the new economy.

I imagine everything travel-related will be the same. Even with no restrictions, you'll see more cross-country business meetings done over facetime than ever before. Some of those flights aren't coming back. Some of those hotel workers aren't coming back. We're all just going to have to adapt to that.

 

[twenty02]

When we do reopen, we are going to reopen into an entirely different economy. It could still be a successful one, but we aren't just going to pick up where we left off.

Before this hit, about 51% of all food dollars were spent at restaurants. Even as carryout is increasing around the nation, that number has dropped dramatically, and when restaurants reopen with a new model that focuses heavily on carryout business, they might be able to survive, but they won't be bringing back all their furloughed employees. Eventually, those employees will need to find ways to fit into the new economy.

I imagine everything travel-related will be the same. Even with no restrictions, you'll see more cross-country business meetings done over facetime than ever before. Some of those flights aren't coming back. Some of those hotel workers aren't coming back. We're all just going to have to adapt to that.

The restaurant business will come back... it may not be the same businesses, but the industry will be back..... but a year from now, they'll be just as many people out eating and drinking as ever. It's what I hear people moaning about giving up more than anything.

The leisure travel business will return as well.... probably with huge pent up demand next year.

The one that may become more permanent is the change in corporate business practices.

 

[MaxCoke]

May 1st restrictions will begin to relax. By June 1st pretty much back to normal but with masks, disinfecting,
cleaning and social distancing the new norm.

 

[sglowrider]

For sure. I think “social” activities and consumer/retail will be slow to return - but I think most industry/pro services will return next month - irresponsible or not.

 

[sglowrider]

The restaurant business will come back... it may not be the same businesses, but the industry will be back..... but a year from now, they'll be just as many people out eating and drinking as ever. It's what I hear people moaning about giving up more than anything.

The leisure travel business will return as well.... probably with huge pent up demand next year.

The one that may become more permanent is the change in corporate business practices.

Restaurants are open here but just for takeaway. Obviously the Michelin star restaurants will struggle to adjust to this reality but the food courts are ok.

The food delivery services are thriving. Uber Eats, Deliveroo etc. Like in business, there are winners and losers.

 

[i'vegotwinners]

"Mr President, we have exactly zero casualties to date.

time to open things back up".

 

[TommyCracker]

Once we can get to the point of being able to test everybody every 14 days I'm not quite sure what opening the country is going to do.

There still is no vaccine and unlike the flu, the big kicker with this f#$ker is the 8 to 14 day incubation period (the flu is 1 to 2 days). So until we can effectively isolate who has it, all we have right now is social distancing.

I would think that would and should last as long until we can get to phase 2, mass regular testing.

Phase 3 is a vaccine which is probably six to 18 months away.

 

[i'vegotwinners]

Once we can get to the point of being able to test everybody every 14 days I'm not quite sure what opening the country is going to do.

There still is no vaccine and unlike the flu, the big kicker with this f#$ker is the 8 to 14 day incubation period (the flu is 1 to 2 days). So until we can effectively isolate who has it, all we have right now is social distancing.

I would think that would and should last as long until we can get to phase 2, mass regular testing.

Phase 3 is a vaccine which is probably six to 18 months away.

the key is knowing who has had it, not who has it.

test everybody for 2nd stage of antibodies.

way too much talk, not enough action.

start immediately.

what are we waiting for.

 

[twenty02]

the key is knowing who has had it, not who has it.

test everybody for 2nd stage of antibodies.

way too much talk, not enough action.

start immediately.

what are we waiting for.

How soon can you make an antibody test for a virus that's existed for 4 months? And then mass produce it for a few billion people?

 

[sglowrider]

Once we can get to the point of being able to test everybody every 14 days I'm not quite sure what opening the country is going to do.

There still is no vaccine and unlike the flu, the big kicker with this f#$ker is the 8 to 14 day incubation period (the flu is 1 to 2 days). So until we can effectively isolate who has it, all we have right now is social distancing.

I would think that would and should last as long until we can get to phase 2, mass regular testing.

Phase 3 is a vaccine which is probably six to 18 months away.

Not sure we need to be tested every 14 days. The cost would be prohibitive for a large chunk of the population. At anyway rate, maybe some of the $2T need to be diverted there.
The antibodies test kits just aren't very accurate at the moment -- they should only be used to people who are self-isolating -- and to be used only after seven days when the body starts to react to the virus with antibodies.

The RNA tests are better but are prone to human error or logistical challenges. They need to be stored at -20 or even colder in some cases -- but for the sample and to get the test kit to the location. The change in temp will affect its efficacy and the sample's quality.

 

[twenty02]

Not sure we need to be tested every 14 days. The cost would be prohibitive for a large chunk of the population. At anyway rate, maybe some of the $2T need to be diverted there.
The antibodies test kits just aren't very accurate at the moment -- they should only be used to people who are self-isolating -- and to be used only after seven days when the body starts to react to the virus with antibodies.

The RNA tests are better but are prone to human error or logistical challenges. They need to be stored at -20 or even colder in some cases -- but for the sample and to get the test kit to the location. The change in temp will affect its efficacy and the sample's quality.

The testing mechanisms aren't there yet..... and won't be in large numbers until middle of summer from what I'm guessing.

 

[i'vegotwinners]

How soon can you make an antibody test for a virus that's existed for 4 months? And then mass produce it for a few billion people?

was under the impression the test has already been done to detect the second stage antibodies.

and you do it by starting immediately.

you've never had an idea your whole life, and you hate it when anyone else does.

 

[twenty02]

was under the impression the test has already been done to detect the second stage antibodies.

and you do it by starting immediately.

you've never had an idea your whole life, and you hate it when anyone else does.

The UK just trashed the first set of antibody tests they ordered.... as they didn't work.

Science is a messy business. So is actual mass manufacturing and distribution.

The idea that people aren't trying to do this is nonsense. It will happen. But it will take time. This isn't one of your movies.

 

[sglowrider]

The testing mechanisms aren't there yet..... and won't be in large numbers until middle of summer from what I'm guessing.

Technically there are three types of tests -- PCR/RNA, Antibodies and Antigen. They are all out there being done in their millions at the moment.

The big debate is within the healthcare community ie clinicians who find 90% accuracy unacceptable as they are dealing with lives -- whereas the big data folks, politicians are willing to have an error for margin and thus the politicians are willing to do it as they are dealing with statistical information/outcomes. Doctors think its almost a placebo. In Singapore, they have stopped using antibodies testing due to the relatively high degree of inaccuracy.

I have spoken to some of them asking them to tell me how to set up the best-case scenario in optimising the highest sensitivity/specificity results but no one is willing to say. (And there is even debate on the testing of 'sensitivity/specificity' within some circles as they may not be truly reflective of what we need in tests. But that's another debate)

This is what happens when you do EUA's etc -- most things are half baked but due to external pressures they have to do something.

Me personally, I am ok with the 90% or worse levels of accuracy. Its a bit like a pap smear -- they are not exactly that accurate despite be a much more mature testkit. (sensitivity 74%, specificity 91%, positive predictive value 86%, negative predictive value 82.5%, false positive percentage 13%, false negative percentage 17.4%)

That's why like pap smears you do it more often to ensure that it catches at some point. I have have had heated discussions with my clinican friends on this -- who now see me as some scumbag. (They deal with lives but it's just theoretical to me.)

Eventually, this all goes back to the original issue -- costs and its affordability which is a major issue in the States.
And in the medium term, a healthcare policy issue since we will more than likely be hit with another major virus again in the next decade.

 

[twenty02]

Technically there are three types of tests -- PCR/RNA, Antibodies and Antigen. They are all out there being done in their millions at the moment.

The big debate is within the healthcare community ie clinicians who find 90% accuracy unacceptable as they are dealing with lives -- whereas the big data folks, politicians are willing to have an error for margin and thus the politicians are willing to do it as they are dealing with statistical information/outcomes. Doctors think its almost a placebo. In Singapore, they have stopped using antibodies testing due to the relatively high degree of inaccuracy.

I have spoken to some of them asking them to tell me how to set up the best-case scenario in optimising the highest sensitivity/specificity results but no one is willing to say. (And there is even debate on the testing of 'sensitivity/specificity' within some circles as they may not be truly reflective of what we need in tests. But that's another debate)

This is what happens when you do EUA's etc -- most things are half baked but due to external pressures they have to do something.

Me personally, I am ok with the 90% or worse levels of accuracy. Its a bit like a pap smear -- they are not exactly that accurate despite be a much more mature testkit. (sensitivity 74%, specificity 91%, positive predictive value 86%, negative predictive value 82.5%, false positive percentage 13%, false negative percentage 17.4%)

That's why like pap smears you do it more often to ensure that it catches at some point. I have have had heated discussions with my clinican friends on this -- who now see me as some scumbag. (They deal with lives but it's just theoretical to me.)

Eventually, this all goes back to the original issue -- costs and its affordability which is a major issue in the States.
And in the medium term, a healthcare policy issue since we will more than likely be hit with another major virus again in the next decade.

90% is all we need to make good policy decisions.

The US will put a ton of money into preparedness on the other side of this. Zero question about that, it will be the next boom economy just as the military was post 9/11. Likely will cause permanent changes in our health care system. But that will be in future years.

 

[sglowrider]

90% is all we need to make good policy decisions.

The US will put a ton of money into preparedness on the other side of this. Zero question about that, it will be the next boom economy just as the military was post 9/11. Likely will cause permanent changes in our health care system. But that will be in future years.

I agree on the 90% -- my analogy is the pap smear test. But the debate within the healthcare community is that its just not acceptable. The consequences of false-negative etc. Thats why I said, keep testing. Its free here but in the States its an issue.

 

[i'vegotwinners]

The UK just trashed the first set of antibody tests they ordered.... as they didn't work.

Science is a messy business. So is actual mass manufacturing and distribution.

The idea that people aren't trying to do this is nonsense. It will happen. But it will take time. This isn't one of your movies.

it's the only way we'll ever be in the clear until a cure is found..

a vaccine is way off, and many vaccines are hit and miss, so could be yrs or never before we defeat this with a vaccine.

we know it's a blood test for the immunity antibodies, (who has developed immunity, not who currently is infected), so we start ramping up immediately to blood test 500 million, including all the supplies to do the blood testing, and any lab work if needed, as soon as researchers are confident in reliability.

we don't start asking every night on tv "where are the blood testing supplies and lab capacity" once the test is ready, especially if we don't control the manufacturing currently.

we start the logistics to blood test 500 million NOW, including ramping up manufacturing of everything needed in the US now, if not already there, so we aren't stuck in queue behind the rest of the world if not, and at China's control.

drop in the bucket money wise compared to everything else we're doing.

nothing would ever get done with you in charge.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

Testing remains the key and will need to be associated with whatever geos and industries are ramped up. We should be in a better position from a testing standpoint by early May but still nowhere near the mass testing required for mass reopening.

IMV FEMA needs to stockpile test kits and direct towered the geos and individuals that are strategically determined to ramp up first. All rules of distance and hygiene obviously apply.

To answer UM's question, we need to see a strategic plan including rollout tactics by the end of April to keep the collective calm from breaking.

 

[iuwclurker]

Think outside the box. The box is the curative medicine paradigm. We’re long overdue to switch to a preventive paradigm.

Too much of the populace is vulnerable. If we don’t switch, natural selection will do it for us.

 

[82hoosier]

Testing remains the key and will need to be associated with whatever geos and industries are ramped up. We should be in a better position from a testing standpoint by early May but still nowhere near the mass testing required for mass reopening.

IMV FEMA needs to stockpile test kits and direct towered the geos and individuals that are strategically determined to ramp up first. All rules of distance and hygiene obviously apply.

To answer UM's question, we need to see a strategic plan including rollout tactics by the end of April to keep the collective calm from breaking.

What we need is leadership at the top who can develop and execute a game plan - which includes being able to articulate what the plan is. Going to Easter mass or going back to work on May 1 is not a plan - it’s a goal. Clearly the goal of going back to normal on Easter Sunday was a complete travesty.

From day one I have never believed that the founder of Trump University could right this ship.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Testing remains the key and will need to be associated with whatever geos and industries are ramped up. We should be in a better position from a testing standpoint by early May but still nowhere near the mass testing required for mass reopening.

IMV FEMA needs to stockpile test kits and direct towered the geos and individuals that are strategically determined to ramp up first. All rules of distance and hygiene obviously apply.

To answer UM's question, we need to see a strategic plan including rollout tactics by the end of April to keep the collective calm from breaking.

The national strategic plan at the end of the month will be to wear masks, distance yourself as best you can, don’t congregate in the company cafeteria, and if you’re old or infirm you should really stay home. But go back to work. This big, beautiful country wasn’t meant to be closed. Tests are coming. Millions and millions of beautiful tests. Soon. Maybe even tomorrow. More tests than the world has ever seen. But we have to get back to work. Today. The cure has become worse than the problem. April 30, 2020.

 

[bawlmer]

Reports of up to 1 in 3 false negatives is common. It's the trade-off with quickly ramping-up testing.

It's nonsense to set a specific date by which we will reopen. We should establish goals for our capacity for accurate testing and tracing, and depending on sustained reductions in infections.