Harris vs. Trump 2024

[ChicagoFineForNow]

If I may paint for you a nightmare scenario. Trump sweeps the sunbelt states, including Nevada. Harris sweeps the blue wall states. Final outcome 270-268, Harris.

A close win. What is the nightmare in that you might say?

Let me throw you back to the complete dumpster fire that was the 2020 census. 14 states with a statistically significant miscount.

• Undercount: Arkansas (-5.04%), Florida (-3.48%), Illinois (-1.97%), Mississippi (-4.11%), Tennessee (-4.78%) and Texas (-1.92%).
• Overcount: Delaware (+5.45%), Hawaii (+6.79%), Massachusetts (+2.24%), Minnesota (+3.84%), New York (+3.44%), Ohio (+1.49%), Rhode Island (+5.05%) and Utah (+2.59%).

What does that mean as far apportionment? 7-9 EC votes that should currently be in GOP hands, but aren't

Some will say the 2020 Census was done by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, not Dems fault. That is true Wilbur Ross is a complete dipshit, however the Census Bureau is one of several government agencies that needs to be ripped out root and branch and replaced. I don't think any of us should trust those who work there.

"Besides the census is always an inexact science others would say." Not this inexact folks...

With miscounts this big, make no mistake it was incumbent on Gina Raimondo to perform a special census if she had any integrity. She didn't

Make no mistake ya'll. THAT would be a stolen election.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Absolutely. Look for Newsom also. Maybe more who are not on anybody’s radar. she will be a disaster with favorables <40%.

No chance for Newscum. Won't nominate 2 Californians in a row. The 28 Dem primary will be all about holding the Rust Belt as Vance can't win without one. Shapiro's selling point will be that he and big Gretch can hold all 3 and fend off Vance and RFK or Tulsi. No one else would have a prayer. So vote for me or go ahead watch Vance take office for 8 years.

 

[dbmhoosier]

If I may paint for you a nightmare scenario. Trump sweeps the sunbelt states, including Nevada. Harris sweeps the blue wall states. Final outcome 270-268, Harris.

A close win. What is the nightmare in that you might say?

Let me throw you back to the complete dumpster fire that was the 2020 census. 14 states with a significantly significant miscount.

• Undercount: Arkansas (-5.04%), Florida (-3.48%), Illinois (-1.97%), Mississippi (-4.11%), Tennessee (-4.78%) and Texas (-1.92%).
• Overcount: Delaware (+5.45%), Hawaii (+6.79%), Massachusetts (+2.24%), Minnesota (+3.84%), New York (+3.44%), Ohio (+1.49%), Rhode Island (+5.05%) and Utah (+2.59%).

What does that mean as far apportionment? 7-9 EC votes that should currently be in GOP hands, but aren't

Some will say the 2020 Census was done by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, not Dems fault. That is true Wilbur Ross is a complete dipshit, however the Census Bureau is one of several government agencies that needs to be ripped out root and branch and replaced. I don't think any of us should trust those who work there.

"Besides the census is always an inexact science others would say." Not this inexact folks...

With miscounts this big, make no mistake it was incumbent on Gina Raimondo to perform a special census if she had any integrity. She didn't

Make no mistake ya'll. THAT would be a stolen election.

Yes. Dems are in big trouble come 2032.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

Yes. Dems are in big trouble come 2032.

I don’t think the Democrats will ever be in big trouble. The characteristics that defined a typical Republican has been systematically attacked by education, media, social media, and more. We are seeing an irreversible cultural change.

 

[dbmhoosier]

They know. Queue Marc Elias.

 

[dbmhoosier]

The rural counties aren't f****** around this election.

 

[cosmickid]

Mail ballots - Clark County, NV
10/31

Dem 8,805 (40.5%) +4,050
Rep 4,755 (21.8%)
Other 8,177 (37.6%)

Total 21,737

Moderate batch good for a 4k Dem margin, raising the Clark Dem firewall to 11k and lowering the statewide margin to Rep +44k.

The Dems really not getting the mail volume or percentage they need

Sort of like in 2022 when Ralston was bemoaning the early numbers and conceding the race to Laxalt even before election day...

 

[cosmickid]

They know. Queue Marc Elias.

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We all expect Trump to claim he won prematurely. so none of this is the least bit shocking...

You can already see the panicking settling in...I mean seriously who files a frivolous $10 Billion dollar lawsuit vs a major news corp if they think they're winning?

 

[dbmhoosier]

We all expect Trump to claim he won prematurely. so none of this is the least bit shocking...

You can already see the panicking settling in...I mean seriously who files a frivolous $10 Billion dollar lawsuit vs a major news corp if they think they're winning?

 

[cosmickid]

You think Shapiro would run against her as an incumbent in 2028? I guess it's possible -- if she's really in that bad a shape. But it's pretty unusual for that happen.

I do find him pretty impressive. And I'd much rather he be on the Dem ticket right now than her.

In one of my youtube comments during the time Dems were still debating whether or not Biden should withdraw his candidacy I opined that I thought they should nominate Shapiro. I said the same when the VP stakes were ongoing, as I thought Walz was too unknown and appealed to a limited part of the Dem coalition..

But I've come to realize that I was wrong.No other Dem could have united or excited the base the way KH has, and appeal across party lines to women and moderates. Harris was by far the best choice to prosecute the pro-choice position, which I still believe is the key issue. Shapiro is too unknown and his stance on Palestine is too off putting for the youth and more progressive eleements within the coalition. He also has some isues regarding labor...

And I've come to believe that Walz was the best choice for VP as well.Again he immediately energized the very people who had become disillusioned with the idea of 2 old men in a Trump/Harris rematch, and that excitement and renewed energy allowed Harris Walz to bolt out of the gate and turn this into a horse race. I think Harris has the momentum and is leading and will win, but I'm not sure that would be the reality if Shapiro had been the VP pick.

Both Harris and Walz are more popular and seen as more likable than Trump Vance. I think in the end that likability plays a key role, and I'm not sure that Shapiro's overall favorites would be as high. Even people who felt Walz didn't win the VP date, seemed to come out of the debate liking Walz more than they already did.

 

[cosmickid]

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Should we have dueling Politico stories?

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/01/shy-kamala-harris-voters-polling-00186653

Or this one?

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/31/trump-lagging-early-votes-seniors-pennsylvania-00186612

 

[Hoopsdoc1978]

I think it's pretty telling that CBS refused to release the unedited video and/or transcript. If it were me, and I was being falsely accused of deceptive editing, I'd be eager to get that out there. I'd put the burden on my accusers to show where I did it.

So I think it's probably true that CBS chopped the interview answers up in a way that they didn't want everybody to see and scrutinize.

That said....this is a ridiculous and groundless lawsuit that shouldn't last 10 minutes in any courtroom.

I saw somewhere that people now trust the media LESS than they trust Congress. Which is a first. And pretty incredible.

I think dishonest media is what is leading to the unfounded optimism from both sides regarding the election, but especially from the right.

If people spend weeks thinking there’s no way possible their guy can lose and they do, those people lose their shit.

I thinks it’s going to be a close election and there will be drama regardless of who wins.

 

[Baller23Boogie]

Good questions. And that dirty hot lawyer. She didn’t know you had to ask for a jury. Probably keep her on the bench

Can't keep her on the bench when she's walking out to fire.

 

[mcmurtry66]

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Can't keep her on the bench when she's walking out to fire.

Imagine her poor husband

 

[Baller23Boogie]

Imagine her poor husband

I'd switch spots with him for a night.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

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If I was them, I'd hedge those bets.

I'm not saying Trump can't win. I understand why the betting markets are favoring him (although those have been dropping slightly for him the past couple days...and I would expect some volatility here on out). Most people are assuming that he's going to win AZ, GA, and NC. He may or may not win NV -- but winning there, for him, is not enough to get him to 270. I think it gets him to 268. NV almost becomes immaterial.

I think NC will go Trump. AZ and GA are more up in the air. But, assuming he does win those 3 states, then he just has to win one of the Rust Belt battlegrounds. Harris would have to win all 3.

It looks to me like she's going to win Michigan. If so, then it comes down to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Of the two, I think Trump looks better in PA. Wisconsin is as tight as a duck's arse.

Why would anybody look at all this and have confidence in how it will turn out?

 

[dbmhoosier]

If I was them, I'd hedge those bets.

I'm not saying Trump can't win. I understand why the betting markets are favoring him (although those have been dropping slightly for him the past couple days...and I would expect some volatility here on out). Most people are assuming that he's going to win AZ, GA, and NC. He may or may not win NV -- but winning there, for him, is not enough to get him to 270. I think it gets him to 268. NV almost becomes immaterial.

I think NC will go Trump. AZ and GA are more up in the air. But, assuming he does win those 3 states, then he just has to win one of the Rust Belt battlegrounds. Harris would have to win all 3.

It looks to me like she's going to win Michigan. If so, then it comes down to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Of the two, I think Trump looks better in PA. Wisconsin is as tight as a duck's arse.

Why would anybody look at all this and have confidence in how it will turn out?

What makes you think Wisconsin is close 🤔

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

What makes you think Wisconsin is close 🤔

Oh, gee, I dunno....how 'bout the 0.3% advantage Harris currently has in the RCP average? A margin that was 0.4% for Trump just the other day?

What makes you ask me that question?

 

[dbmhoosier]

Oh, gee, I dunno....how 'bout the 0.3% advantage Harris currently has in the RCP average? A margin that was 0.4% for Trump just the other day?

What makes you ask me that question?

I thought you were smarter than you obviously are. My bad.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Wisconsin.html

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

I thought you were smarter than you obviously are. My bad.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Wisconsin.html

So, basically, because Trump outperformed the polls in Wisconsin in 2016 and 2020 by ~6%, he's going to outperform them again this year?

If that's an assumption you're relying on to conclude that, despite polls being super tight, Trump is actually headed for a relatively comfortable win there, I'd encourage you to question it.

 

[snarlcakes]

I have no idea

You know the answer.