Harris vs. Trump 2024

[mcmurtry66]

He’s almost 80 now and all his many flaws are amplified. He’s not fit. Vote for him knowing that.

And he’s not a progressive. Doesn’t support defunding cops, bail projects, open borders, attacks on energy without viable alternatives vetted, raising taxes, cradle to grave benefits, masked reparations, and on and on. Know that this is what you’re supporting. Progressives are unfit

I’ll take trump Vance rfk Jr and musk any day over the identity politics crowd devoid of an ounce of merit. The former is far brighter and more accomplished

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

And he’s not a progressive. Doesn’t support defunding cops, bail projects, open borders, attacks on energy without viable alternatives vetted, raising taxes, cradle to grave benefits, masked reparations, and on and on. Know that this is what you’re supporting. Progressives are unfit

I’ll take trump Vance rfk Jr and musk any day over the identity politics crowd devoid of an ounce of merit

Nope. Don’t support any of that and we’ll get through it. I don’t trust the T guy to be CInC. He must be defeated.

RFK Jr is a nut, by the way.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Nope. Don’t support any of that and we’ll get through it. I don’t trust the T guy to be CInC. He must be defeated.

RFK Jr is a nut, by the way.

Rfk jr has already brought to light issues far more important than Harris/walz. Health. Food processing. Censorship. Etc. He’ll be an asset. You prefer endless race-baiting and dei focused leadership?

There’s no reason to get through. if you could think objectively and set aside your emotions you’d understand that. Progressivism must be defeated. It tears at the fabric of the country.

 

[mattndallas]

Nailed it...

 

[outside shooter]

Did the big dick talk about big dicks today?

 

[largemouth]

Obviously. But still. It's like he's being presented with a layup and trying his hardest to find a way to brick it.

Orange men can't jump!

 

[dbmhoosier]

 

[dbmhoosier]

 

[BCCHoosier]

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Are you trying to convince yourself? You must be nervous.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Are you trying to convince yourself? You must be nervous.

I've been convinced for years. Just trying to prepare you lefties. We don't want any major meltdowns.

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

I've been convinced for years. Just trying to prepare you lefties. We don't want any major meltdowns.

But what if Harris wins?

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

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I'm hard-pressed to believe that Latino voters will actually end up favoring Trump. Biden won the demographic by 65-32 in 2020 (according to exit polls from CNN, NYT, and the Roper Center....and 59-38 from Pew).

However, I do think he's likely to do significantly better than that this time. If he can even get somewhere in the mid to high 40s, it would represent a tectonic shift in the electorate. The Dems have been counting on this growing demographic ever since "The Emerging Democratic Majority" came out in 2002.

 

[BradStevens]

But what if Harris wins?

What if the sun doesn't rise tomorrow?

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

What if the sun doesn't rise tomorrow?

You're right, it was a stupid question.

 

[BradStevens]

I've been convinced for years. Just trying to prepare you lefties. We don't want any major meltdowns.

Weren't you also convinced there would be a Red Wave in 2022?

You were wrong then. Why can't you be wrong now?

 

[mcmurtry66]

Weren't you also convinced there would be a Red Wave in 2022?

You were wrong then. Why can't you be wrong now?

What a disaster that was. Dark dark time on the board. We had it in the bag. Gloating. All juiced up. And it was a tiny ripple. That’s when pose had to change his signature line and we lost bailey

Cosmic won that round if you can imagine such a thing

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

I'm hard-pressed to believe that Latino voters will actually end up favoring Trump. Biden won the demographic by 65-32 in 2020 (according to exit polls from CNN, NYT, and the Roper Center....and 59-38 from Pew).

However, I do think he's likely to do significantly better than that this time. If he can even get somewhere in the mid to high 40s, it would represent a tectonic shift in the electorate. The Dems have been counting on this growing demographic ever since "The Emerging Democratic Majority" came out in 2002.

One other thing on this...

What are we supposed to take from a poll with a MoE of +/- 9%?

 

[dbmhoosier]

Weren't you also convinced there would be a Red Wave in 2022?

You were wrong then. Why can't you be wrong now?

First off Trump wasn't on the ballot. Was a completely different election as there are many Trump only voters.

Yes, I thought there would be a red wave. But, started to get nervous at the end when people like Baris and Scott Pressler said to hit the breaks. Baris had R+3 in his final Congressional poll and it ended up being R+2.8. Pretty accurate and Rs definitely outperformed Dems it just didn't translate to the key races. This time though he has Trump+4 in PA and +3.5 in MI.

Also the impact of the Dobbs decision has fallen dramatically. Many dupes originally believed it outlawed abortion nation wide. It's not even a top 4 issue this election as Trump has handled it masterfully.

We also now have Whatley and Lara running the RNC. Mittens niece was intentionally sabotaging the party. So much has changed and never compare a midterm to a Presidential.

 

[dbmhoosier]

And the early numbers out of NC, GA, AZ, NV, etc have been disastrous for Dems. PA looking excellent.

 

[mcmurtry66]

And the early numbers out of NC, GA, AZ, NV, etc have been disastrous for Dems. PA looking excellent.

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This young man is really making a name for himself Dbm. He’s kind of replaced pose as your guy

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

What a disaster that was. Dark dark time on the board. We had it in the bag. Gloating. All juiced up. And it was a tiny ripple. That’s when pose had to change his signature line and we lost bailey

Cosmic won that round if you can imagine such a thing

You'll always have New York and Florida.

 

[dbmhoosier]

This young man is really making a name for himself Dbm. He’s kind of replaced pose as your guy

Eric is dream team material no doubt.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

And the early numbers out of NC, GA, AZ, NV, etc have been disastrous for Dems. PA looking excellent.

I wouldn't say that Trump has NC, GA, and AZ in his bag. But I might say that those states are his to lose. The AJC came out with their final GA poll today and it had Trump +4. Their final poll in 2020 had Biden +1 -- which turned out to be on the nuts.

NV looks like a tossup. There aren't too many scenarios where it will matter, but there are some.

As for PA, I wouldn't read too much into early voting data. And a great example of that is 2020 -- which, of course, was smack dab in the middle of Covid. Dems had an advantage of almost 1.1M returned mail-in ballots. But the final margin in the state was only about 80K. There have been far fewer mail-in ballots requested/returned so far this year...but we're also not in the middle of a pandemic.

It's tempting to say that the lower number of ballots requested, which translates into a smaller lead for Dems, means that Harris is lagging Biden in the state. But I don't think we can make that assumption.

 

[BradStevens]

First off Trump wasn't on the ballot. Was a completely different election as there are many Trump only voters.

Yes, I thought there would be a red wave. But, started to get nervous at the end when people like Baris and Scott Pressler said to hit the breaks. Baris had R+3 in his final Congressional poll and it ended up being R+2.8. Pretty accurate and Rs definitely outperformed Dems it just didn't translate to the key races. This time though he has Trump+4 in PA and +3.5 in MI.

Also the impact of the Dobbs decision has fallen dramatically. Many dupes originally believed it outlawed abortion nation wide. It's not even a top 4 issue this election as Trump has handled it masterfully.

We also now have Whatley and Lara running the RNC. Mittens niece was intentionally sabotaging the party. So much has changed and never compare a midterm to a Presidential.

You've explained why the result this year would be different than in 2022. I agree that different factors are in play.

But that's not the issue. The issue is your own subjective certainty. You were wrong before, despite the fact you thought you had all the data. You've shown a tendency to overpredict the probability of an outcome based on your desire for that outcome (a very human trait). The same thing might be going on now with you (and your sources).

Do you acknowledge that possibility?

 

[mcmurtry66]

You've explained why the result this year would be different than in 2022. I agree that different factors are in play.

But that's not the issue. The issue is your own subjective certainty. You were wrong before, despite the fact you thought you had all the data. You've shown a tendency to overpredict the probability of an outcome based on your desire for that outcome (a very human trait). The same thing might be going on now with you (and your sources).

Do you acknowledge that possibility?

this is an important post. i think we need a new thread to capture where posters are, to put our dicks out there, and to have some receipts. i'll start it

 

[outside shooter]

Again. "likely voters" excludes all first time voters, and by many different accounts there is the greatest bump in first time registrations in history, especially in the left leaning under 30 demographic.

They might show up or they might not, but the likely voters survey assumes with certainty that none of them will. It is potentially a significant baked in error above and beyond the statistical survey margin of error.

 

[dbmhoosier]

You've explained why the result this year would be different than in 2022. I agree that different factors are in play.

But that's not the issue. The issue is your own subjective certainty. You were wrong before, despite the fact you thought you had all the data. You've shown a tendency to overpredict the probability of an outcome based on your desire for that outcome (a very human trait). The same thing might be going on now with you (and your sources).

Do you acknowledge that possibility?

There's a possibility for anything. But it's very unlikely this time though. 80%+ Trump wins.

No candidate has ever won Miami-Dade and lost.

 

[dbmhoosier]

And @BradStevens, Harris is taking today off. What campaign cancels all events 2 weeks before the election? Not one that is winning for sure. But Donald Trump is exhausted.

 

[Baller23Boogie]

There's a possibility for anything. But it's very unlikely this time though. 80%+ Trump wins.

No candidate has ever won Miami-Dade and lost.

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You're hilariously uninformed.

Hillary Clinton won Dade in 2016.

https://west.ops.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/florida/

 

[dbmhoosier]

You're hilariously uninformed.

Hillary Clinton won Dade in 2016.

https://west.ops.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/florida/

Republican. My bad.

 

[dbmhoosier]

More good news...

 

[Baller23Boogie]

Republican. My bad.

G.W. lost Dade in 2004.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

 

[dbmhoosier]

G.W. lost Dade in 2004.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

No shit. Obviously Al Gore was never President. No Republican has won Miami-Dade and lost the election.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

You're hilariously uninformed.

Hillary Clinton won Dade in 2016.

https://west.ops.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/florida/

He’s truly dumb as a stump.

 

[cosmickid]

Gag me with a sock.

Trump courts Christian vote and says ‘God saved me for a purpose’

Republican nominee reflects on assassination attempt and says ‘my faith took on new meaning on July 13’

www.theguardian.com

Hell just gag Trump...

 

[cosmickid]

Bill Kristol says "hold my beer"...

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And I just saw this one... This is hilarious...

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Hey I'm (well at least Twitter) is on a roll...