Imagine Trumps”s Project 2025’s plans that only white-house approved media be allowed.
Harris vs. Trump 2024
- Thread starter Aloha Hoosier
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Imagine Trumps”s Project 2025’s plans that only white-house approved media be allowed.
True. I just think when 25-30 headlines are negative day after day it becomes inculcated
I believe most newspapers of that era were extreme partisan prints, usually financially supported by the political party apparatus. Hyper sensationalism and 'yellow journalism' were the norm in hundreds (maybe thousands) of papers across the country.
It wasn't until the early 1900s that Hearst, Pulitzer, etc found they could be more profitable selling advertising and running independent papers, rather than running partisan papers.
Do NYT/Sienna polls always underestimate Trump? Certainly haven't been doing that thru out 2024. In fact NYT/Sienna has been a bit of an outlier, primarily since Harris replaced Biden and especially post debate...Here is an analysis of recent polling post debate from Forbes, a bastion of radical leftism if I've ever seen one...
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads In 2 Major Surveys—But Razor-Thin Race In Swing States
Most polls indicate a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
www.forbes.com
Here is a very good analysis of the NYT polls you posted. This guy does a very good job of pointing out issues with various polls and among the problems with NYT is small sample size (700-800) or so, substantial MOE (above 4.5 points) and very key when it comes to missing out on older AA voters in the South the fact that 97% of the interviews were conducted via cell phone...
Meanwhile you ignored both the most recent CBS and especially NBC polls which demonstrated huge momentum for Harris.The most significant aspect of the NBC poll is that they had not polled since Biden exited the race. In July, NBC showed Trump in the lead, having a significant edge on hot button issues like the economy, immigration and mental fitness and Harris's overall favorability at 18+ points underwater...
The new NBC poll demonstrates how the race has changed.Harris now with a 5point lead, huge increases among youth,Black and Hispanic voters for Harris compared to Biden, and increased popularity which now shows her 48-45 above water. That is the largest shift in popularity for a politician from one NBC poll to the next since Bush made a huge gain afyer 9-11.
In fact of Trump,Vance,Biden,Harris and Walz only Harris and Walz were above water on popularity. Vance is the deepest underwater of the 5 included in the survey, and Trump stands out at 53% negative, 8 points above Harris's unfavorable number. I do think Welker missed the key component at the end where the issues were listed. She characterized Trump as leading on certain issues, but the real point is the inroads Harris has made and how a 9 pt lead on the economy now is nowhere near as decisive as the 22 point lead Trump had in July over Biden...
The more people get to know Harris the more they like her. The CBS poll shows that voters who feel like the overall economy is improving overwhelmingly back Harris, somewhere around 80%. And I wouldn't sleep on Harris being more viewed as an agent of change or having a 20 point lead when it comes to mental fitness. The thing I saw at the Biden debate that made me cringe was Biden's inability to prosecute the case vs Trump and call out Trump's lies, which were obvious.
Harris was able to completely turn the tables and basically make Trump the out of date feeble old man. The Dems have such a financial advantage as the campaign closes, that they will be able to coninue to prosecute that case. Esp in the swing states.
I do wonder if prior to attacking Hatian immigrants Trump stopped and considered FL. He won FL by 300,000 votes in 2020 but in South FL alone there are over 800,000 people of Hatian descent. Up until now they have mainly voted GOP. but Trump and Vance could change all that...
CNN poll. Absolutely brutal for Harris as she has to win the popular vote by at least 3 and probably 3.5-4 to have a chance.
The CNN poll from October 1, 2020 was Biden +16. 😬😬😬 Easy money on Poly market folks.
The CNN poll from October 1, 2020 was Biden +16. 😬😬😬 Easy money on Poly market folks.
You are a Republican but can still do the right thing and vote for VP Harris.
I Know What It's Like to Debate JD Vance - SMERCONISH
As the October 1st vice-presidential debate nears, Tim Ryan reflects on his debates with JD Vance, expecting Vance to rely on dodging direct answers and pushing fear-based soundbites.
www.smerconish.com
Good news! Even you MAGAs should applaud the FBI, DOJ and Treasury Department:
2024 National: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling
2024 National: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling
Calling Atlas "accurate" means you have a pretty fundamental misunderstanding of what the word "accuracy" means...
Here is a deep dive into the Atlas Intel "poll". My guess is that most of this will come as a complete revelation to you. For example I bet you don't know that Atlas is a Brazillian firm, that they "poll" all over the world (Turkey,Japan,Laos etc...) and that this poll you're touting is completely online. Even more damning, I bet you don't know that Atlas's methodology consists of running ads and then choosing their "random sample" from the people who reply to their ad.
There is no screeing for actual voters or even Americans as all it takes to reply and possibly be chosen is to have an email address. That means anyone in any part of the world can pretend to be an American,simply thru use of a VPN. And as Dave points out in this video, some of the crosstabs and their total misconception of how to apply MOE are just plain ridiculous...
Interesting that this outlier poll which Dave characterizes as the worst he's ever seen falls in line with the other notorious outlier- Rasmussen... What was Ras saying in 2022?
I'm not particularly enamored withpolls or 538's rankings to begin with.From this chart from Sept 12 it looks as if 538 is ranking NYT/Sienna as #1 and too many people that I consider knoweledgeable have serious issues with NYT/Sienna.But even so, they appear to rank Atlas at #22, which I wouldn't say demonstrates a high rating...
I'm honestly not sure how to read this chart and if the polls are listed sequentially in terms of best to worst. I do see that a very small number of Atlas polls (24) have been analyzed. I also see that their transparency score is 6.5 which also strikes me as very low. The first 10 polls they list are in the 9-10+ range, so I assume the higher the transparency the better. But I don't honestly know so I'll link the chart and maybe your interpretation of what's listed will be different than mine...
I do like Dave as an analyst because he's been an interpretor of polls and election trends for 30+ yrs. He points out crosstabs that are ridiculous in this particular poll, and like he said the only other poll for the past month showing Trump with a 3.0 or more lead is Rasmussen.
So they are both complete outliers, and it was heavily GOP polls like Rasmussen that flooded the zone in 2022 and created the fake notion of a "Red wave". Some of those GOP polls (some of which Dbm and his cohorts posted here semi daily) predicted the Pubs would gain 5 seats in the Senate. Many of them were fly by night outfits designed to create a fake sense of non-existant GOP Dominanance...
But given that the GOP has only won the popular vote twice in the past 30 yrs and Trump has lost the popular vote by over 10 Million in his 2 races, the idea that he could be leading in the National vote strikes me as ludicrous.
Pollster Ratings
FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls.
Majorities of adults see decline of union membership as bad for the U.S. and working people
The share of U.S. workers who belonged to a union in 2023 stood at 10%, down from 1983 when 20.1% of American workers were union members.
www.pewresearch.org
So why are you posting this pre debate article about Dems being nervous before the debate? If they were worried about Walz screwing up, they no longer have that concern because it clearly didn't happen.
People thought Walz and Vance both did well enough and it was close. For example the respondents in this CNN flash poll gave Vance a 2 point margin of victory 51-49, and felt Vance became more likable than he was previously. The CBS post debate poll had Vance ahead 50-49, so I guess Vance won?
Yet in that same CNN poll that had Vance winning, the very same respondents answered the question of who is more in touch with my needs 48-35 in favor of Walz. The response to the question of Who shares your vision of America was 48-39 in favor of Walz. And Walz increased his popularity numbers pre to post debate from +14 (46-32) to + 37 (59-22).
If subsequent post debate polls demonstrate those same levels of approval for Walz, does it really matter who "won" the debate?
More cowardice from Trump. He won't do "60 Minutes" interview. Harris says yes.
www.cbsnews.com
Trump backs out of "60 Minutes" election special; Kamala Harris to be interviewed
Vice President Kamala Harris will be featured by "60 Minutes" on Monday, Oct. 7 at 8 p.m. ET/PT. Former President Donald Trump has declined to participate, despite previously indicating otherwise.
www.cbsnews.com
Frankly. After that performance from the moderators last night, Republicans shouldn’t be agreeing to CBS broadcasts. That’s on top of ABC who disgraced themselves in September.More cowardice from Trump. He won't do "60 Minutes" interview. Harris says yes.
Trump backs out of "60 Minutes" election special; Kamala Harris to be interviewed
Vice President Kamala Harris will be featured by "60 Minutes" on Monday, Oct. 7 at 8 p.m. ET/PT. Former President Donald Trump has declined to participate, despite previously indicating otherwise.
Debates are going to be harder to schedule going forward if these network moderators cannot learn to act with proper decorum.
Republicans shouldn't cower from the networks. Reagan wouldn't. Bush wouldn't. This new MAGA dominated GOP has a yellow streak.
Times were different then. You know this. Using examples from 25+ years ago; 40 with Regan, is a bit , ummmm......
If you were Trump, would you? Look how biased the debate was. And how biased last night was.More cowardice from Trump. He won't do "60 Minutes" interview. Harris says yes.
Trump backs out of "60 Minutes" election special; Kamala Harris to be interviewed
Vice President Kamala Harris will be featured by "60 Minutes" on Monday, Oct. 7 at 8 p.m. ET/PT. Former President Donald Trump has declined to participate, despite previously indicating otherwise.
Really---would, you?
