ESPN - Why it Pays to Have Patience with College Coaches

[rikki-tikka-tava]

Shaka Smart and why it pays to have patience with college basketball coaches

Texas' Shaka Smart has a potential Final Four team after facing questions about his job status in the spring. Here are other coaches also on the brink of turning it around -- if their schools have patience.

www.espn.com

This should be fun...

 

[dbmhoosier]

Yeah Tom Crean needed another 5 years at least. 9 wasn't enough.

 

[Cavanagh]

Yeah Tom Crean needed another 5 years at least. 9 wasn't enough.

Remember when Collins was going to replace Coach K? How much time does he need? So many more examples of should just fire the guy if it isn't working after 4 years. Shaka has shown glimpses of being great since the jump, while keeping recruiting going on all cylinders. This is Archies year to shine, if he doesn't the future is bleak.

 

[Univee2]

Shaka Smart and why it pays to have patience with college basketball coaches

Texas' Shaka Smart has a potential Final Four team after facing questions about his job status in the spring. Here are other coaches also on the brink of turning it around -- if their schools have patience.

www.espn.com

This should be fun...

Interesting that he uses Smart as his example of "allowing" sufficient time and then Miller bats lead-off for those who should also be "allowed" more time. I would contend that Texas and IU are in no way similar in their respective historical basketball positions. Put it in football mode. Texas didn't "allow" Herman much time; Texas has a much loftier position in the football universe. Three years (I believe) of mediocre (to them) results and boom.

Michigan, and its historical position, won't "allow" Harbaugh much more time. I would argue that IU fans would have been pretty happy with Michigan's results over Harbaugh's tenure without going back and looking to see what those actual results might have been. Michigan fans likely view his career as an abject failure.

IU fans' perceptions are based on the past years of tremendous success. We still get pissed off about any type of loss to Wisconsin as we remember the 40+ game winning streak against the Badgers. Who here would now argue that Wisconsin - Wisconsin! - has passed us by and left us in the dust.

 

[Coach Geez]

Interesting that he uses Smart as his example of "allowing" sufficient time and then Miller bats lead-off for those who should also be "allowed" more time. I would contend that Texas and IU are in no way similar in their respective historical basketball positions. Put it in football mode. Texas didn't "allow" Herman much time; Texas has a much loftier position in the football universe. Three years (I believe) of mediocre (to them) results and boom.

Michigan, and its historical position, won't "allow" Harbaugh much more time. I would argue that IU fans would have been pretty happy with Michigan's results over Harbaugh's tenure without going back and looking to see what those actual results might have been. Michigan fans likely view his career as an abject failure.

IU fans' perceptions are based on the past years of tremendous success. We still get pissed off about any type of loss to Wisconsin as we remember the 40+ game winning streak against the Badgers. Who here would now argue that Wisconsin - Wisconsin! - has passed us by and left us in the dust.

Harbaugh just got a 5 year extension.

 

[Univee2]

Harbaugh just got a 5 year extension.

And I find that incredible. What's his record against OSU? Every Michigan alum/fan I know can't believe it.

 

[Coach Geez]

I would be willing to bet that if you looked at the most successful basketball coaches over the last 40-50 years, their first 3-4 years don't represent anywhere near their final results. The Billy Donovan's and Tom Izzo's who hit it right out of the park are anomalies and exceptions to the rule.

 

[Univee2]

And I find that incredible. What's his record against OSU? Every Michigan alum/fan I know can't believe it.

Harbaugh - - 6 years at Michigan:

2015 - 10-3 / 6-2
2016 - 10-3 / 7-2
2017 - 8-5 / 5-4
2018 - 10-3 / 8-1
2019 - 9-4 / 6-3
2020 - 2-4 / 2-4

- lost last 4 bowl games
- lost all 5 games (obviously didn't play in 2020) to OSU. Lost 62-39 in 2018 and 56-27 in 2019.
- have lost 8 in a row to OSU, so 3 before Harbaugh.

Outside of 2020, IU fans would have been ecstatic with having a record like Harbaugh's during his first 5 years. But to Michigan fans, losing to OSU consistently, failing in bowl games and declining a bit in the conference is an aggravation. If Michigan starts out slowly and has another poor year and another big loss (or even a close loss) to OSU that extension won't be worth spit. Harbaugh will get a huge payout (likely; I don't know the contractual details) and look to the NFL.

 

[Coach Geez]

Harbaugh - - 6 years at Michigan:

2015 - 10-3 / 6-2
2016 - 10-3 / 7-2
2017 - 8-5 / 5-4
2018 - 10-3 / 8-1
2019 - 9-4 / 6-3
2020 - 2-4 / 2-4

- lost last 4 bowl games
- lost all 5 games (obviously didn't play in 2020) to OSU. Lost 62-39 in 2018 and 56-27 in 2019.
- have lost 8 in a row to OSU, so 3 before Harbaugh.

Outside of 2020, IU fans would have been ecstatic with having a record like Harbaugh's during his first 5 years. But to Michigan fans, losing to OSU consistently, failing in bowl games and declining a bit in the conference is an aggravation. If Michigan starts out slowly and has another poor year and another big loss (or even a close loss) to OSU that extension won't be worth spit. Harbaugh will get a huge payout (likely; I don't know the contractual details) and look to the NFL.

Reality is, Michigan isn't going to find anyone better than Harbaugh. Harbaugh could leave for the NFL anytime he wants and his recent contract extension is actually a pretty big demotion. Michigan can entertain the idea of shuffling coaches every 3-4 years like they've been doing (same as Texas), but as we've seen, it doesn't work.

 

[Birnk403]

Harbaugh just got a 5 year extension.

At a significantly reduced salary. Warde Manuel has staked his career at UM on JH, and most Wolverine fans and friends aren’t happy about that.

 

[dbmhoosier]

I have a gut feeling that when/if we pull the trigger on Archie that Alford will be the hire. Just a feeling but seems like a Dolson move. They probably see his 3 Sweet 16s in his first 4 years at UCLA and his success at NM as amazing. And I also don't see any big names coming.

 

[Birnk403]

I would be willing to bet that if you looked at the most successful basketball coaches over the last 40-50 years, their first 3-4 years don't represent anywhere near their final results. The Billy Donovan's and Tom Izzo's who hit it right out of the park are anomalies and exceptions to the rule.

What do the first 3-4 years look like for the “unsuccessful” coaches?

 

[Coach Geez]

What do the first 3-4 years look like for the “unsuccessful” coaches?

Tony Bennett didn't win a tournament game until year 5. John Beilein had a losing record through 4 years at Michigan. Mike Krzyzewski didn't make the tournament until year 4. I'm guessing a lot of the "unsuccessful" coaches had years similar to all these guys through 3-4 years.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Tony Bennett didn't win a tournament game until year 5. John Beilein had a losing record through 4 years at Michigan. Mike Krzyzewski didn't make the tournament until year 4. I'm guessing a lot of the "unsuccessful" coaches had years similar to all these guys through 3-4 years.

True but all were clearly going upward. We seem to be going sideways at best and maybe downwards. Next year will be a disaster if TJD leaves. And what happens if he comes back? We probably make the dance and Sweet 16 at best. Then TJD, Rob, Race, Joey, and possibly Lander are all gone and the wheels completely come off.

 

[Coach Geez]

True but all were clearly going upward. We seem to be going sideways at best and maybe downwards. Next year will be a disaster if TJD leaves. And what happens if he comes back? We probably make the dance and Sweet 16 at best. Then TJD, Rob, Race, Joey, and possibly Lander are all gone and the wheels completely come off.

Were they going upward? Beilein made the tournament in year 2 and missed it in years 3 and 4. Tony Bennet made the tournament in year 3 and missed it in year 4. This is by far and away Archie's best team at IU. It may not look like it to the naked eye because the conference is so strong, but IU is tenfold better today than when Archie took over.

 

[kmathum]

Remember when Collins was going to replace Coach K? How much time does he need? So many more examples of should just fire the guy if it isn't working after 4 years. Shaka has shown glimpses of being great since the jump, while keeping recruiting going on all cylinders. This is Archies year to shine, if he doesn't the future is bleak.

unfortunately our recruiting seems to be misfiring. archie really needs some big transfers next year

 

[Hatchets7times]

Archie gets this year and next without a doubt.
Next if it's ugly ..Then he gets put on notice..
But ..If he would land two good ..If not great transfers..IU's fortune could turn completely around..
Let's see how it plays out..I'm wanting win Thursday more than anything

 

[Krafty97grad]

Cavanaugh,

If TJD comes back (he still is a So.)
Race (jr.)
Rob (jr.)
Joey (sr.)
Kristian (fr.)

The only losses after 2021-22 season would be Joey/TJD
Rob/Race could xfer I guess, but wouldn’t seem to make sense.
Kristian hopefully displays the promise next year and more physicality, but even with that progress won’t be on any draft boards. His earliest departure (assuming no xfer, is in 2 years).

 

[dbmhoosier]

Cavanaugh,

If TJD comes back (he still is a So.)
Race (jr.)
Rob (jr.)
Joey (sr.)
Kristian (fr.)

The only losses after 2021-22 season would be Joey/TJD
Rob/Race could xfer I guess, but wouldn’t seem to make sense.
Kristian hopefully displays the promise next year and more physicality, but even with that progress won’t be on any draft boards. His earliest departure (assuming no xfer, is in 2 years).

Wrong.

 

[Krafty97grad]

Wrong.

All of it? Some of it? One part?

 

[jsig]

I know the fan base wants immediate results but this team continues to improve each year. It has been slow and frustrating. There was one major setback of losing 12 of 13 but the team rebounded even if it was to little to late. IMO, Archie has reset the culture and the system. Until the team takes a turn in reverse, I hope he stays. If this team misses the tourney this year and TJD goes pro then maybe the reversal comes and the program hits the wall. To me this program is moving upward on a linear line very slowly with a high floor and low ceiling.

 

[cshartle123]

I have a gut feeling that when/if we pull the trigger on Archie that Alford will be the hire. Just a feeling but seems like a Dolson move. They probably see his 3 Sweet 16s in his first 4 years at UCLA and his success at NM as amazing. And I also don't see any big names coming.

Or we beat Purdue on Thursday, finish in the top half of the Big Ten, and run to the Sweet 16 this year.

 

[Birnk403]

I know the fan base wants immediate results but this team continues to improve each year. It has been slow and frustrating. There was one major setback of losing 12 of 13 but the team rebounded even if it was to little to late. IMO, Archie has reset the culture and the system. Until the team takes a turn in reverse, I hope he stays. If this team misses the tourney this year and TJD goes pro then maybe the reversal comes and the program hits the wall. To me this program is moving upward on a linear line very slowly with a high floor and low ceiling.

In what way is Year 4 “immediate”? And how has he “reset the culture”? What signs of this cultural reset do you see, and how has that benefitted the program?

 

[Cavanagh]

Cavanaugh,

If TJD comes back (he still is a So.)
Race (jr.)
Rob (jr.)
Joey (sr.)
Kristian (fr.)

The only losses after 2021-22 season would be Joey/TJD
Rob/Race could xfer I guess, but wouldn’t seem to make sense.
Kristian hopefully displays the promise next year and more physicality, but even with that progress won’t be on any draft boards. His earliest departure (assuming no xfer, is in 2 years).

why was this post addressed to me, spell my name right!

 

[Hatchets7times]

Our schedule coming up after Purdue..
I might take two wins out of those 6
And call it good...Idk...I'm a realist with this team.

 

[HoosierJimbo89]

Pay no attention to coaching decisions regarding Texas football.

 

[dbmhoosier]

All of it? Some of it? One part?

You said they only losses after 22 would be TJD and Joey.

 

[Krafty97grad]

In what way is Year 4 “immediate”? And how has he “reset the culture”? What signs of this cultural reset do you see, and how has that benefitted the program?

1. No oversigns
2. No more 3&degree
3. 1000 APR
4. No off court incidents
5. Reconnected to recruiting the state of Indiana
6. Established a defensive identity for the team (statistics back up progression in each of the four seasons)

Now none of these things normally would require to be established, but none of those 6 were in place when he took the job.

Next, which is a work in progress is that translating to wins, conference titles, tournament runs, etc. I am a believer that the foundation above will lead to the wins, etc. plus it will be done “the right way” and sustainable. It also sets up to benefit vs being hurt by the new xfer rules, and if the one and done nba rule is eliminated and/or a viable nba-minor league established (one or both is coming), the identity / approach of this program won’t have to change (similar to uva, Villanova, Wisconsin). Knight was revered for winning yes, but also what the program stood for (academics/graduation, team over individual, discipline, accountability, etc). Again the wins need to follow now, but everything else is in place, and progress while slower than many would like is being made.

 

[Krafty97grad]

You said they only losses after 22 would be TJD and Joey.

Who else do you think will leave? Rob/Race would still have another year of eligibility (because this year doesn’t count). Since neither is likely an nba player after next year or at all, I believe they would stay. Kristian, I believe will need two seasons as a key player before making the jump.

 

[Birnk403]

1. No oversigns
2. No more 3&degree
3. 1000 APR
4. No off court incidents
5. Reconnected to recruiting the state of Indiana
6. Established a defensive identity for the team (statistics back up progression in each of the four seasons)

Now none of these things normally would require to be established, but none of those 6 were in place when he took the job.

Next, which is a work in progress is that translating to wins, conference titles, tournament runs, etc. I am a believer that the foundation above will lead to the wins, etc. plus it will be done “the right way” and sustainable. It also sets up to benefit vs being hurt by the new xfer rules, and if the one and done nba rule is eliminated and/or a viable nba-minor league established (one or both is coming), the identity / approach of this program won’t have to change (similar to uva, Villanova, Wisconsin). Knight was revered for winning yes, but also what the program stood for (academics/graduation, team over individual, discipline, accountability, etc). Again the wins need to follow now, but everything else is in place, and progress while slower than many would like is being made.

Yet, we still have several early departures / recruiting mistakes and, whether there’s been a cultural change or not, the results have been sub-par. And this is Year 4, so these aren’t immediate results. Further, recruiting has fallen off comparatively, so much so that some are now relying on expanded transfer standards as a partial cure. That’s far from a sustainable strategy for long term success. And if defense is now an “identity”, aren’t we known for our offensive futility at least as much?

 

[Krafty97grad]

Yet, we still have several early departures / recruiting mistakes and, whether there’s been a cultural change or not, the results have been sub-par. And this is Year 4, so these aren’t immediate results. Further, recruiting has fallen off comparatively, so much so that some are now relying on expanded transfer standards as a partial cure. That’s far from a sustainable strategy for long term success. And if defense is now an “identity”, aren’t we known for our offensive futility at least as much?

The focus was clearly first on defense which may have contributed to the offensive futility, but even the offense/shooting is starting to move from bad to mediocre during this season (in future seasons this will need to be good to great).

I think the recruiting concerns are way over blown.

Here is next year’s roster if TJD stays:

PF/C: Tjd, Race, Duncomb, Brunk
SF: Galloway, Hunter, Geronimo
SG: Franklin, Leal, Parker
PG: Rob, Kristian

+1 transfer if Archie wants to fill 13.
If TJD leaves, +1 xfer this spring minimum

That is a really solid lineup for next year, a big ten / ncaa contender with TJD.

Outside of TJD, I don’t see a major gap in the lineup for the next two seasons, unless Kristian and Duncomb are both busts (highly doubtful). I trust a good player or two will be recruited under such a scenario.

Honestly, if IU has Kaufman right now recruiting isn’t a topic, it would be down to wins/losses as the only program concern. Depending on how this season plays out, w/l may be less of a topic going into next year. Funny, tjd returns and a recruit or two is added, in year 5 the program may be at its healthiest from a sustainability perspective since 1993. We will know this answer in about 4 months.

 

[kmathum]

The focus was clearly first on defense which may have contributed to the offensive futility, but even the offense/shooting is starting to move from bad to mediocre during this season (in future seasons this will need to be good to great).

I think the recruiting concerns are way over blown.

Here is next year’s roster if TJD stays:

PF/C: Tjd, Race, Duncomb, Brunk
SF: Galloway, Hunter, Geronimo
SG: Franklin, Leal, Parker
PG: Rob, Kristian

+1 transfer if Archie wants to fill 13.
If TJD leaves, +1 xfer this spring minimum

That is a really solid lineup for next year, a big ten / ncaa contender with TJD.

Outside of TJD, I don’t see a major gap in the lineup for the next two seasons, unless Kristian and Duncomb are both busts (highly doubtful). I trust a good player or two will be recruited under such a scenario.

Honestly, if IU has Kaufman right now recruiting isn’t a topic, it would be down to wins/losses as the only program concern. Depending on how this season plays out, w/l may be less of a topic going into next year. Funny, tjd returns and a recruit or two is added, in year 5 the program may be at its healthiest from a sustainability perspective since 1993. We will know this answer in about 4 months.

if tjd returns we might be pretty darn good next year even without transfers. but that's a mighty big if.

 

[dbmhoosier]

if tjd returns we might be pretty darn good next year even without transfers. but that's a mighty big if.

He's a second rounder at best right now but that doesn't mean anything.

 

[darkhawk returns]

20 years ago, I would have fully supported this post. If you think the coaches in between Knight and Miller kept IU in that league, you are delusional. Context matters. The last 20 years matter. It isn't 94 anymore guys. I hate to break that to you....

Interesting that he uses Smart as his example of "allowing" sufficient time and then Miller bats lead-off for those who should also be "allowed" more time. I would contend that Texas and IU are in no way similar in their respective historical basketball positions. Put it in football mode. Texas didn't "allow" Herman much time; Texas has a much loftier position in the football universe. Three years (I believe) of mediocre (to them) results and boom.

Michigan, and its historical position, won't "allow" Harbaugh much more time. I would argue that IU fans would have been pretty happy with Michigan's results over Harbaugh's tenure without going back and looking to see what those actual results might have been. Michigan fans likely view his career as an abject failure.

IU fans' perceptions are based on the past years of tremendous success. We still get pissed off about any type of loss to Wisconsin as we remember the 40+ game winning streak against the Badgers. Who here would now argue that Wisconsin - Wisconsin! - has passed us by and left us in the dust.

 

[jsig]

Interesting that he uses Smart as his example of "allowing" sufficient time and then Miller bats lead-off for those who should also be "allowed" more time. I would contend that Texas and IU are in no way similar in their respective historical basketball positions. Put it in football mode. Texas didn't "allow" Herman much time; Texas has a much loftier position in the football universe. Three years (I believe) of mediocre (to them) results and boom.

Michigan, and its historical position, won't "allow" Harbaugh much more time. I would argue that IU fans would have been pretty happy with Michigan's results over Harbaugh's tenure without going back and looking to see what those actual results might have been. Michigan fans likely view his career as an abject failure.

IU fans' perceptions are based on the past years of tremendous success. We still get pissed off about any type of loss to Wisconsin as we remember the 40+ game winning streak against the Badgers. Who here would now argue that Wisconsin - Wisconsin! - has passed us by and left us in the dust.

Herman was arrogant and alienated regents, fanbase, players. There were rumors of negative recruiting of current players telling recruits not to come to texas. True or rumor who knows but the AD started finding out a lot of these things in his evaluation it seems. It will be interesting to see if the 2022 prize QB from Southlake flips back to Texas now that Herman is gone and Sark is here in Austin. That would be telling. The kid was a lifelong Horn fan and playing for the Horns was his dream. Just like Ehlinger who came about the time Herman came. Sam did not have the knowledge of Herman at Texas.

Shaka has been criticized a lot here in austin and has looked on the way out. He bought another year with the way the team finished in 2019 and won the NIT. Then they looked on the bubble last year but he was probably saved due to COVID. Unlike Herman, Shaka is all class and one of the most likable coaches in the game. He has a ton of experience at guard which he has never really had.

 

[go_iu]

I have a gut feeling that when/if we pull the trigger on Archie that Alford will be the hire. Just a feeling but seems like a Dolson move. They probably see his 3 Sweet 16s in his first 4 years at UCLA and his success at NM as amazing. And I also don't see any big names coming.

Belein, Matta, Lon Kruger ... all clean, proven, and all could be available for the right $. That said, I think IU will tank next year and realize that not everybody they would want will come in with COVID still going on to clean up AM's mess. They'll let it go and let roster attrition get bad enough that whoever they get is coming in with a clean slate to get their own players and not have to pay AM off. It makes it easier to justify firing AM and lets every candidate know they'll get carte blanche and a honeymoon for a couple years.

IMO, the job is more attractive if it is another rebuild and not have to deal with Crean and AM mistakes. I think that's what doomed AM, bad hire timing and trying to be mediocre with Crean's leftovers

 

[kmathum]

Belein, Matta, Lon Kruger ... all clean, proven, and all could be available for the right $. That said, I think IU will tank next year and realize that not everybody they would want will come in with COVID still going on to clean up AM's mess. They'll let it go and let roster attrition get bad enough that whoever they get is coming in with a clean slate to get their own players and not have to pay AM off. It makes it easier to justify firing AM and lets every candidate know they'll get carte blanche and a honeymoon for a couple years.

IMO, the job is more attractive if it is another rebuild and not have to deal with Crean and AM mistakes. I think that's what doomed AM, bad hire timing and trying to be mediocre with Crean's leftovers

i haven't given up on archie yet, i still think he can make it with some good transfers next year. but if he doesn't , greg marshall's the guy, hands down.

 

[dbmhoosier]

i haven't given up on archie yet, i still think he can make it with some good transfers next year. but if he doesn't , greg marshall's the guy, hands down.

They won't hire Marshall.

 

[Birnk403]

The focus was clearly first on defense which may have contributed to the offensive futility, but even the offense/shooting is starting to move from bad to mediocre during this season (in future seasons this will need to be good to great).

I think the recruiting concerns are way over blown.

Here is next year’s roster if TJD stays:

PF/C: Tjd, Race, Duncomb, Brunk
SF: Galloway, Hunter, Geronimo
SG: Franklin, Leal, Parker
PG: Rob, Kristian

+1 transfer if Archie wants to fill 13.
If TJD leaves, +1 xfer this spring minimum

That is a really solid lineup for next year, a big ten / ncaa contender with TJD.

Outside of TJD, I don’t see a major gap in the lineup for the next two seasons, unless Kristian and Duncomb are both busts (highly doubtful). I trust a good player or two will be recruited under such a scenario.

Honestly, if IU has Kaufman right now recruiting isn’t a topic, it would be down to wins/losses as the only program concern. Depending on how this season plays out, w/l may be less of a topic going into next year. Funny, tjd returns and a recruit or two is added, in year 5 the program may be at its healthiest from a sustainability perspective since 1993. We will know this answer in about 4 months.

Appreciate your post, but this where we fundamentally differ. You see a Big 10 / NCAA contender with this line up while I see one that might get into the top 5 in the BiG. An improvement, for sure, but nothing close to contending for anything beyond a top half conference finish and a first round BTT berth.

 

[Krafty97grad]

Appreciate your post, but this where we fundamentally differ. You see a Big 10 / NCAA contender with this line up while I see one that might get into the top 5 in the BiG. An improvement, for sure, but nothing close to contending for anything beyond a top half conference finish and a first round BTT berth.

I can see that perspective. The rest of this season and next is a “show me” time period. If this team is 10-10 at the end of this conference season, and tjd stays, my floor for next year would be 14-6 (depending on unbalanced schedule) ceiling of 16-4 in conference. I think it is the type of team that wouldn’t lose or maybe drop 1 at home (especially with fans back) and split on the road. I think they will play a strong non-con (~10 games, figure 9–1). So 23-7 / 25-5 heading into the post season. Perhaps 1-1 in btt (26-6). Feels like a 3 seed in tournament and at least second weekend expectations.

Now if this season craters and/or tjd leaves, the upside reduces, but until either/both of those things happen, I’m optimistic.