I am pulling for Georgia to squeak by Texas and a PSU upset. I don’t think they will drop Oregon or UT below an inactive Notre Dame and that pushes ND back to 7 and we roll up to South Bend.
CFP schedule
- Thread starter Jssanto
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I'm not even sure that would do it.
Let's say Georgia falls to 9 overall.
That would put:
IU at 8
SMU at 7
Tenn at 6
OSU at 5
SMU would stay where they are with the bye
We would move up to the 9 seed @ Tennessee
OSU would move up to the 7th seed and host Georgia
If Clemson beats SMU, everything above is still the same, except it would be Clemson in SMU's spot. Because SMU would fall behind us and not factor in for our purposes. The only debate then would be whether they fell behind Bama and out altogether (spoiler alert: they would).
Now that's a possibility.
I'm pulling to send us down south. I'm getting soft in my old age and don't want to be cold again
The odds of us hosting is sadly very slim. I wish I could see it as 45%, which is basically a coin flip, but I can't. 3 teams that are ahead of us, that could also conceivably fall below us still, play this weekend: GA, Penn St, and SMU. SMU will probably beat Clemson this weekend, but even if they don't it doesn't really help us because of the conference champions getting 1st round byes. Boise and either the ACC or B12 champs have 2 of them locked up regardless. The B10 and the SEC will snag the other 2. If Oregon and TX both win, things start to get interesting for IU.
I do not see GA staying in front of O$U, TN, or a 12-1 ACC champ SMU. The same holds for Penn St with all those teams, plus ND. That means they would be jockeying with IU for the last home game. GA would be 10-3 with a bad loss at Ole Miss, and a string of escapes including GA Tech and KY. Penn St would be 11-2 and have 2 losses against top 5 teams. IU would be 11-1, with the 62nd best SoS, and a dominant set of statistics for the committee to pour over. One of those 3 resumes will get chosen for the final home game, and I have a hard time envisioning Penn St dropping below us. I do think GA would, which would put us in Happy Valley in this scenario. If the committee did the right thing and bumped them both below IU, we'd be hosting Penn St.
Both GA and Penn St are playing for a chance at an automatic berth and a 1st round bye. If they lose, their consolation prize shouldn't be a 1st round home game. They should also not get penalized and drop out of the CFP. Same goes for SMU imo. Even if they lose to Clemson they should be in based on that logic. We all know it would be Bama instead though.
I do not see GA staying in front of O$U, TN, or a 12-1 ACC champ SMU. The same holds for Penn St with all those teams, plus ND. That means they would be jockeying with IU for the last home game. GA would be 10-3 with a bad loss at Ole Miss, and a string of escapes including GA Tech and KY. Penn St would be 11-2 and have 2 losses against top 5 teams. IU would be 11-1, with the 62nd best SoS, and a dominant set of statistics for the committee to pour over. One of those 3 resumes will get chosen for the final home game, and I have a hard time envisioning Penn St dropping below us. I do think GA would, which would put us in Happy Valley in this scenario. If the committee did the right thing and bumped them both below IU, we'd be hosting Penn St.
Both GA and Penn St are playing for a chance at an automatic berth and a 1st round bye. If they lose, their consolation prize shouldn't be a 1st round home game. They should also not get penalized and drop out of the CFP. Same goes for SMU imo. Even if they lose to Clemson they should be in based on that logic. We all know it would be Bama instead though.
I would be fine with Tennessee or Georgia,hopefully we avoid another trip to Columbus and Austin.
I’m holding out a glimmer of hope to host but I know it’s a long shot.
I was so disappointed when Georgia came back to beat Ga Tech.
I wonder what the bracket would look like if Georgia had lost that one?
Great analysis and I like your profile photo. Bill and I had an interesting conversation in a veggie restaurant in Encinitas Ca one time. It was about the 1973 IU-UCLA game and whether he or Steve Downing made that foul, where Downing fouled out. Bill only smiled and said nothing about that foul.
We will either play at Tennessee or at ND. Impossible to play at GA. If they win, they get a bye. If they lose, they drop down.
I think we would match up better with ND.
That would make it interesting for the reversible jacket crowd.
It would have us at OSU, I think, in the current bracket.
Because Georgia would have dropped in the overall rankings, but that would have moved SMU, IU, OSU, & Tenn up a notch. And Tenn would then be hosting someone, depending on how far Georgia would have fallen. I'd still be rooting then for a big PSU loss in the B1G championship so they'd fall behind Tenn or OSU.
It wouldn't have affected Georgia's spot in the SEC championship because GT is a non-con game. They'd probably be in a situation where they'd be playing Texas for a play-in, kind of like UNLV, Arizona St., Iowa St., & Clemson are.
Or at Penn St. Or at O$U. Or at TX. There will almost certainly be a shake up this weekend and all of those teams are pretty much equally in play. Only Oregon and GA are definitely out as far as possible road destinations.
I don't see us being anything but 9th or 10th. And I don't see Penn State nor Texas dropping to 7th or 8th. That's a pretty big fall from 2 and 3, for only losing in the conference championship. Sure, it's a possibility, but I don't see it happening.
It's still hard to say, because we don't know how much the committee cares about losing a conference championship game, and there isn't any history to rely on.
If Georgia loses, they might drop 5 spots, or they might not drop at all.
As with FSU last year, a significant injury could also play a role.
Updated Predictions... these are fun...but obviously its impossible to predict accurately.
One thing I feel pretty confident on is losses in conf championship games won't drop teams much at all. Ohio State only dropped 4 spots, and they lost at home to a 6-5 Michigan team. Penn State losing to Oregon, probably won't drop them below Ohio State, as an example.
Current Rankings
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Ole Miss
14. South Carolina
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State
17. Clemson
Championship Game predictions
B10 Oregon over PSU in relatively close game
SEC Georgia over Texas in close game
ACC Clemson over SMU in close game
B12 Iowa State over AZ State in close game
MW Boise State over UNLV
Final CFP Rankings on December 10th
1. Oregon
2. Notre Dame
3. Georgia
4. Penn State
5. Texas
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Clemson
14. Iowa State
15. Ole Miss
16. South Carolina
Final Bracket
1. Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 Indiana
2. Georgia vs 7 Ohio State/10 SMU
3. Boise State vs 6 Penn State/11 Alabama
4. Clemson vs 5 Notre Dame/12 Iowa State
What a gift to Notre Dame that would be.
One thing I feel pretty confident on is losses in conf championship games won't drop teams much at all. Ohio State only dropped 4 spots, and they lost at home to a 6-5 Michigan team. Penn State losing to Oregon, probably won't drop them below Ohio State, as an example.
Current Rankings
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Ole Miss
14. South Carolina
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State
17. Clemson
Championship Game predictions
B10 Oregon over PSU in relatively close game
SEC Georgia over Texas in close game
ACC Clemson over SMU in close game
B12 Iowa State over AZ State in close game
MW Boise State over UNLV
Final CFP Rankings on December 10th
1. Oregon
2. Notre Dame
3. Georgia
4. Penn State
5. Texas
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Clemson
14. Iowa State
15. Ole Miss
16. South Carolina
Final Bracket
1. Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 Indiana
2. Georgia vs 7 Ohio State/10 SMU
3. Boise State vs 6 Penn State/11 Alabama
4. Clemson vs 5 Notre Dame/12 Iowa State
What a gift to Notre Dame that would be.
If that's how it comes out why would ND ever join a conference? They have the worst loss of all these teams and they get the coveted 5 seed. NDs SOS is not much different than ours and our loss is to OSU and theirs to Northern Illinois. Brand bias is real.
I agree, but the pettiness in me doesn’t mind the prospect of going into Tennessee and beating them on SEC turf. If only to hear Paul Finebaum coming on air after we smack around his alma mater
Send us to Tennessee or Georgia or Texas.
It's been a crazy year. Might as well go win in an SEC stadium.
It's been a crazy year. Might as well go win in an SEC stadium.
You left out TX in your bracket, but you ranked them 5th, so the matchups are wrong. I really hope that GA, Penn St, and SMU all lose
Doh...
I think we probably jump SMU if they lose, the other two you mentioned will still be ahead of us if they lose, I'm sure. Obviously would effect who we'd play though. Its sure looking like we're gonna be playing at an SEC school on the road though. Absolute worst draw would be playing at Ohio State. We saw they're not a very good matchup for us. Their stadium is difficult when they're jacked for a game, which I assume they would be in the first ever CFP campus game. And its probably the most boring of the matchups...if IU being in a CFP game could possibly be boring.
Lets try this again...
Chalk
Oregon beats PSU
Texas beats Georgia
SMU beats Clemson
Boise State beats UNLV
Arizona State beats Iowa State
Rankings
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Notre Dame
4. Ohio State
5. Penn State
6. Tennessee
7. SMU
8. Georgia
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Arizona State
Bracket
1 Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 Georgia
2 Texas vs 7 Penn State/10 Indiana
3 SMU vs 6 Ohio State/11 Alabama
4 Boise State vs 5 Notre Dame/Arizona State
Chaos
Penn State over Oregon
Georgia over Texas
Clemson over SMU
Iowa State over AZ State
UNLV over Boise State
Rankings
1. Penn State (wow, barf)
2. Notre Dame (wow, barf)
3. Oregon
4. Georgia
5. Ohio State
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Alabama
10. SMU
11. Miami
12. Ole Miss
13. Clemson
14. Iowa State
15-16. UNLV
Boise out
Bracket
1. Penn State v 8 Texas/9 Tennessee
2. Georgia v 7 Ohio State/10 Indiana (Nightmare scenario, double barf)
3. Clemson v 6 Oregon/11 Alabama
4. Iowa State v 5 Notre Dame/12 UNLV
Chalk
Oregon beats PSU
Texas beats Georgia
SMU beats Clemson
Boise State beats UNLV
Arizona State beats Iowa State
Rankings
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Notre Dame
4. Ohio State
5. Penn State
6. Tennessee
7. SMU
8. Georgia
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Arizona State
Bracket
1 Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 Georgia
2 Texas vs 7 Penn State/10 Indiana
3 SMU vs 6 Ohio State/11 Alabama
4 Boise State vs 5 Notre Dame/Arizona State
Chaos
Penn State over Oregon
Georgia over Texas
Clemson over SMU
Iowa State over AZ State
UNLV over Boise State
Rankings
1. Penn State (wow, barf)
2. Notre Dame (wow, barf)
3. Oregon
4. Georgia
5. Ohio State
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Alabama
10. SMU
11. Miami
12. Ole Miss
13. Clemson
14. Iowa State
15-16. UNLV
Boise out
Bracket
1. Penn State v 8 Texas/9 Tennessee
2. Georgia v 7 Ohio State/10 Indiana (Nightmare scenario, double barf)
3. Clemson v 6 Oregon/11 Alabama
4. Iowa State v 5 Notre Dame/12 UNLV
