I am pulling for Georgia to squeak by Texas and a PSU upset. I don’t think they will drop Oregon or UT below an inactive Notre Dame and that pushes ND back to 7 and we roll up to South Bend.
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- Thread starter Jssanto
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I'm not even sure that would do it.
Let's say Georgia falls to 9 overall.
That would put:
IU at 8
SMU at 7
Tenn at 6
OSU at 5
SMU would stay where they are with the bye
We would move up to the 9 seed @ Tennessee
OSU would move up to the 7th seed and host Georgia
If Clemson beats SMU, everything above is still the same, except it would be Clemson in SMU's spot. Because SMU would fall behind us and not factor in for our purposes. The only debate then would be whether they fell behind Bama and out altogether (spoiler alert: they would).
Now that's a possibility.
I'm pulling to send us down south. I'm getting soft in my old age and don't want to be cold again
The odds of us hosting is sadly very slim. I wish I could see it as 45%, which is basically a coin flip, but I can't. 3 teams that are ahead of us, that could also conceivably fall below us still, play this weekend: GA, Penn St, and SMU. SMU will probably beat Clemson this weekend, but even if they don't it doesn't really help us because of the conference champions getting 1st round byes. Boise and either the ACC or B12 champs have 2 of them locked up regardless. The B10 and the SEC will snag the other 2. If Oregon and TX both win, things start to get interesting for IU.
I do not see GA staying in front of O$U, TN, or a 12-1 ACC champ SMU. The same holds for Penn St with all those teams, plus ND. That means they would be jockeying with IU for the last home game. GA would be 10-3 with a bad loss at Ole Miss, and a string of escapes including GA Tech and KY. Penn St would be 11-2 and have 2 losses against top 5 teams. IU would be 11-1, with the 62nd best SoS, and a dominant set of statistics for the committee to pour over. One of those 3 resumes will get chosen for the final home game, and I have a hard time envisioning Penn St dropping below us. I do think GA would, which would put us in Happy Valley in this scenario. If the committee did the right thing and bumped them both below IU, we'd be hosting Penn St.
Both GA and Penn St are playing for a chance at an automatic berth and a 1st round bye. If they lose, their consolation prize shouldn't be a 1st round home game. They should also not get penalized and drop out of the CFP. Same goes for SMU imo. Even if they lose to Clemson they should be in based on that logic. We all know it would be Bama instead though.
I do not see GA staying in front of O$U, TN, or a 12-1 ACC champ SMU. The same holds for Penn St with all those teams, plus ND. That means they would be jockeying with IU for the last home game. GA would be 10-3 with a bad loss at Ole Miss, and a string of escapes including GA Tech and KY. Penn St would be 11-2 and have 2 losses against top 5 teams. IU would be 11-1, with the 62nd best SoS, and a dominant set of statistics for the committee to pour over. One of those 3 resumes will get chosen for the final home game, and I have a hard time envisioning Penn St dropping below us. I do think GA would, which would put us in Happy Valley in this scenario. If the committee did the right thing and bumped them both below IU, we'd be hosting Penn St.
Both GA and Penn St are playing for a chance at an automatic berth and a 1st round bye. If they lose, their consolation prize shouldn't be a 1st round home game. They should also not get penalized and drop out of the CFP. Same goes for SMU imo. Even if they lose to Clemson they should be in based on that logic. We all know it would be Bama instead though.
I would be fine with Tennessee or Georgia,hopefully we avoid another trip to Columbus and Austin.
I’m holding out a glimmer of hope to host but I know it’s a long shot.
I was so disappointed when Georgia came back to beat Ga Tech.
I wonder what the bracket would look like if Georgia had lost that one?
Great analysis and I like your profile photo. Bill and I had an interesting conversation in a veggie restaurant in Encinitas Ca one time. It was about the 1973 IU-UCLA game and whether he or Steve Downing made that foul, where Downing fouled out. Bill only smiled and said nothing about that foul.
We will either play at Tennessee or at ND. Impossible to play at GA. If they win, they get a bye. If they lose, they drop down.
I think we would match up better with ND.
That would make it interesting for the reversible jacket crowd.
It would have us at OSU, I think, in the current bracket.
Because Georgia would have dropped in the overall rankings, but that would have moved SMU, IU, OSU, & Tenn up a notch. And Tenn would then be hosting someone, depending on how far Georgia would have fallen. I'd still be rooting then for a big PSU loss in the B1G championship so they'd fall behind Tenn or OSU.
It wouldn't have affected Georgia's spot in the SEC championship because GT is a non-con game. They'd probably be in a situation where they'd be playing Texas for a play-in, kind of like UNLV, Arizona St., Iowa St., & Clemson are.
Or at Penn St. Or at O$U. Or at TX. There will almost certainly be a shake up this weekend and all of those teams are pretty much equally in play. Only Oregon and GA are definitely out as far as possible road destinations.
I don't see us being anything but 9th or 10th. And I don't see Penn State nor Texas dropping to 7th or 8th. That's a pretty big fall from 2 and 3, for only losing in the conference championship. Sure, it's a possibility, but I don't see it happening.
It's still hard to say, because we don't know how much the committee cares about losing a conference championship game, and there isn't any history to rely on.
If Georgia loses, they might drop 5 spots, or they might not drop at all.
As with FSU last year, a significant injury could also play a role.
Updated Predictions... these are fun...but obviously its impossible to predict accurately.
One thing I feel pretty confident on is losses in conf championship games won't drop teams much at all. Ohio State only dropped 4 spots, and they lost at home to a 6-5 Michigan team. Penn State losing to Oregon, probably won't drop them below Ohio State, as an example.
Current Rankings
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Ole Miss
14. South Carolina
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State
17. Clemson
Championship Game predictions
B10 Oregon over PSU in relatively close game
SEC Georgia over Texas in close game
ACC Clemson over SMU in close game
B12 Iowa State over AZ State in close game
MW Boise State over UNLV
Final CFP Rankings on December 10th
1. Oregon
2. Notre Dame
3. Georgia
4. Penn State
5. Texas
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Clemson
14. Iowa State
15. Ole Miss
16. South Carolina
Final Bracket
1. Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 Indiana
2. Georgia vs 7 Ohio State/10 SMU
3. Boise State vs 6 Penn State/11 Alabama
4. Clemson vs 5 Notre Dame/12 Iowa State
What a gift to Notre Dame that would be.
One thing I feel pretty confident on is losses in conf championship games won't drop teams much at all. Ohio State only dropped 4 spots, and they lost at home to a 6-5 Michigan team. Penn State losing to Oregon, probably won't drop them below Ohio State, as an example.
Current Rankings
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Ole Miss
14. South Carolina
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State
17. Clemson
Championship Game predictions
B10 Oregon over PSU in relatively close game
SEC Georgia over Texas in close game
ACC Clemson over SMU in close game
B12 Iowa State over AZ State in close game
MW Boise State over UNLV
Final CFP Rankings on December 10th
1. Oregon
2. Notre Dame
3. Georgia
4. Penn State
5. Texas
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Clemson
14. Iowa State
15. Ole Miss
16. South Carolina
Final Bracket
1. Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 Indiana
2. Georgia vs 7 Ohio State/10 SMU
3. Boise State vs 6 Penn State/11 Alabama
4. Clemson vs 5 Notre Dame/12 Iowa State
What a gift to Notre Dame that would be.
If that's how it comes out why would ND ever join a conference? They have the worst loss of all these teams and they get the coveted 5 seed. NDs SOS is not much different than ours and our loss is to OSU and theirs to Northern Illinois. Brand bias is real.
I agree, but the pettiness in me doesn’t mind the prospect of going into Tennessee and beating them on SEC turf. If only to hear Paul Finebaum coming on air after we smack around his alma mater
Send us to Tennessee or Georgia or Texas.
It's been a crazy year. Might as well go win in an SEC stadium.
It's been a crazy year. Might as well go win in an SEC stadium.
You left out TX in your bracket, but you ranked them 5th, so the matchups are wrong. I really hope that GA, Penn St, and SMU all lose
Doh...
I think we probably jump SMU if they lose, the other two you mentioned will still be ahead of us if they lose, I'm sure. Obviously would effect who we'd play though. Its sure looking like we're gonna be playing at an SEC school on the road though. Absolute worst draw would be playing at Ohio State. We saw they're not a very good matchup for us. Their stadium is difficult when they're jacked for a game, which I assume they would be in the first ever CFP campus game. And its probably the most boring of the matchups...if IU being in a CFP game could possibly be boring.
Lets try this again...
Chalk
Oregon beats PSU
Texas beats Georgia
SMU beats Clemson
Boise State beats UNLV
Arizona State beats Iowa State
Rankings
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Notre Dame
4. Ohio State
5. Penn State
6. Tennessee
7. SMU
8. Georgia
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Arizona State
Bracket
1 Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 Georgia
2 Texas vs 7 Penn State/10 Indiana
3 SMU vs 6 Ohio State/11 Alabama
4 Boise State vs 5 Notre Dame/Arizona State
Chaos
Penn State over Oregon
Georgia over Texas
Clemson over SMU
Iowa State over AZ State
UNLV over Boise State
Rankings
1. Penn State (wow, barf)
2. Notre Dame (wow, barf)
3. Oregon
4. Georgia
5. Ohio State
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Alabama
10. SMU
11. Miami
12. Ole Miss
13. Clemson
14. Iowa State
15-16. UNLV
Boise out
Bracket
1. Penn State v 8 Texas/9 Tennessee
2. Georgia v 7 Ohio State/10 Indiana (Nightmare scenario, double barf)
3. Clemson v 6 Oregon/11 Alabama
4. Iowa State v 5 Notre Dame/12 UNLV
Chalk
Oregon beats PSU
Texas beats Georgia
SMU beats Clemson
Boise State beats UNLV
Arizona State beats Iowa State
Rankings
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Notre Dame
4. Ohio State
5. Penn State
6. Tennessee
7. SMU
8. Georgia
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Arizona State
Bracket
1 Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 Georgia
2 Texas vs 7 Penn State/10 Indiana
3 SMU vs 6 Ohio State/11 Alabama
4 Boise State vs 5 Notre Dame/Arizona State
Chaos
Penn State over Oregon
Georgia over Texas
Clemson over SMU
Iowa State over AZ State
UNLV over Boise State
Rankings
1. Penn State (wow, barf)
2. Notre Dame (wow, barf)
3. Oregon
4. Georgia
5. Ohio State
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Alabama
10. SMU
11. Miami
12. Ole Miss
13. Clemson
14. Iowa State
15-16. UNLV
Boise out
Bracket
1. Penn State v 8 Texas/9 Tennessee
2. Georgia v 7 Ohio State/10 Indiana (Nightmare scenario, double barf)
3. Clemson v 6 Oregon/11 Alabama
4. Iowa State v 5 Notre Dame/12 UNLV
I want nothing more than to go back to Ohio State and kick their smug asses. It was easy to kick us when they thought they weren't going to have to play us again for years. I'm not sure if they showed it on TV, but at the game they had a camera following CCC with a newspaper frame that said "Buckeyes win! Google it!" Let's turn the car around and take em.
That should have been a 17 - 15 L and with that experience under our belt I think we have an really solid shot at upsetting if we see them again over the next 4 games...
They definitely have far more pure talent on but I still feel we have the better Defense, Quarterback, and Head Coach..., and the more cohesive TEAM...
Seemed like Coach Cignetti and Staff were calling it a little tight the first time out and (combined with all the blitzes that got home) never got in a rthym... I think we'll solve most of those blitz packages next time around and also be more aggressive in our play calls (which is what got us there in the first place)...
I hope we open (the CFP) with them over there... My major concern would be whether the Big Ten will allow us to beat them if it looks as though we're a serious threat to Win...
I'd rather play them in a neutral site where the crowd noise doesn't make it so easy to tee off.
It's a shame we are going to come up a little short of hosting. Seeds 9-12 have a really tough path to win.
I think when it comes down to it, the committee will try to avoid same conference matchups in the first round.
I agree with your chalk, but if chaos ensues, I don't think Oregon falls farther than 5th if they lose and I don't think TX drops farther than 7th in the seeding. I see it like this:
1 Penn St v 8 O$U/9 TN
4 Iowa St v 5 Oregon/12 UNLV
2 GA v 7 TX/10 IU
3 Clemson 6 ND/11 Bama
I could see TX stay above ND in this scenario as well, so if there's chaos I think we are in Austin or South Bend. I still think we could move ahead of GA if they lose, and also Penn St if they get blown out. There is a small chance we play a home game, but it's very small and would require the committee to drop teams significantly in the rankings, which they haven't done when you lose to another top team. Except to IU...
To this point, I'd like to take this moment to acknowledge some post-Thanksgiving thankfulness to Bama (7) , Ole Miss (9), BYU (14), Texas A&M (15), & Colorado (16) for all losing the same week we lost to OSU. And all but BYU to unranked teams.
Had the favorites held, I think we'd find ourselves on the outside of the bubble looking in.
FYI, the Playoff Predictor had not been updated. It has now, and we have a 1% chance of hosting.
A 53K stadium is not hosting a game unless they win the conference.
Why do they care? I thought ticket sales was the hosting schools money?
,
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IDK, if SMU (currently 8th) had stayed unbeaten they'd probably be 3rd or 4th by now and could arguably still host if losing the ACC Championship while having a 32k stadium.
If IU had beaten OSU they'd be at 2 or 3 right now and would certainly have hosted a 1st round game short of getting absolutely destroyed by Oregon in the B1G championship.
Welp, we have less than 3 hours to find out. I'm giving a prediction, and the one thing I am wondering about is if they will consider matchups or strictly go by rankings? I had said before that we would play at either Tennessee or ND. But I think I might be wrong about that. I think it might be either PSU or OSU. Which is why I ask about the matchups. Because I think per rankings, OSU has got to be just above PSU since they both have 2 losses and OSU beat PSU (at PSU, too). But I think it would be dumb to have a rematch of a game already played (IU at OSU), when there are 2 teams in the Big Ten that didn't play each other (IU/PSU, obviously).
In my mind, the only real question is with 5-8. I have 2 scenarios of which it will be......
Byes:
1 Oregon
2 GA
3 Boise State
4 Az State
5 ND
6 Texas
7 OSU
8 PSU
9 Tenn
10 Indiana
11 Alabama
12 Clemson
In the above scenario, they should swap Ohio St and Penn St to avoid a rematch. The question really is how far do Texas and Penn St drop? Tex should not drop much, only losing in OT. And PSU, as well, held their own against the undefeated Ducks. So I could see 5-12 being something this:
5 Texas
6 Penn State
7 ND
8 OSU
9 Tenn
10 Indiana
11 Alabama
12 Clemson
I am hoping for this one. I want to play at ND, and I would like to see a couple of Big Ten vs SEC matchups. Let's have a better idea which really is the better conference. I know a lot of people say Alabama is knocked out, but I don't see a 2 loss ACC team getting in ahead of a 3 loss SEC team. Right or wrong, there is no doubt the SEC is better than the ACC.
In my mind, the only real question is with 5-8. I have 2 scenarios of which it will be......
Byes:
1 Oregon
2 GA
3 Boise State
4 Az State
5 ND
6 Texas
7 OSU
8 PSU
9 Tenn
10 Indiana
11 Alabama
12 Clemson
In the above scenario, they should swap Ohio St and Penn St to avoid a rematch. The question really is how far do Texas and Penn St drop? Tex should not drop much, only losing in OT. And PSU, as well, held their own against the undefeated Ducks. So I could see 5-12 being something this:
5 Texas
6 Penn State
7 ND
8 OSU
9 Tenn
10 Indiana
11 Alabama
12 Clemson
I am hoping for this one. I want to play at ND, and I would like to see a couple of Big Ten vs SEC matchups. Let's have a better idea which really is the better conference. I know a lot of people say Alabama is knocked out, but I don't see a 2 loss ACC team getting in ahead of a 3 loss SEC team. Right or wrong, there is no doubt the SEC is better than the ACC.
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A precursory search of the secondary ticket market shows that tickets at ND are currently twice as high as at Ohio State. Hotels are also over $1,000.
Yep. I’ve already gotten my tickets for Indiana’s “home game.”
Dang. I should’ve sold my IU home playoff tickets last week when I knew we couldn’t get a home game. All profit.
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