What's the 3 month annualized rate? What was the data when they cut before the election?
Cancel the recession?
- Thread starter snarlcakes
- Start date
A 'cut' is not some standalone thing. They want a rate that's restrictive enough to continue to drive down inflation while not killing employment.
Core inflation rate was like 3.3% when they did the cuts from 5.5 to 4.5 last year. 5.5 was too restrictive at that point... But 4.5 is still on the tightening side of the ledger.
If UER isn't increasing I see little reason for them to move lower anytime soon.
When they cut 50 base points in September 2024 the data was:
12 month CPI: 2.4%
12 month Core inflation: 3.3%
Unemployment rate: 4.1%
3 month annualized rate was 2.4%
Today's data:
12 month CPI : 2.3%
12 month Core inflation: 2.8%
3 month annualized is around 1.2%
Unemployment rate is 4.2%
Inflation was higher over the short term and long term in 2024 when the FED cut. And unemployment was higher and job numbers looked better as well.
Also, for the record I'm fine with the someone coming to the conclusion they don't need to cut now. However, it also means they shouldn't have cut in September either if you're going by the data and their stated mandates.
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As I said...a 'cut' means nothing, on its own. It's where the Fed Funds rate is compared with what their best projection of what the neutral rate is. You have to understand the difference between restrictive vs accommodative. And staying relative to the target.
They want to stay restrictive, but not at the more extreme levels they were at last summer. It's slowing a car down gradually. I would expect more cuts late this year once on other side of transitory tariff inflation bump.
You're making excuses to justify their inconsistencies. It would be easier to just admit they made a mistake in September. By the way the 10 year and inflation went up after they cut, which is the opposite of what they wanted.
had a large shipment yesterday of product. no difference with tariffs. literally nothing changed. i'm not sure what is going on
it was shipped monday. i've stopped trying to follow his tariff shit
Do you use a freight forwarder and/or broker? You may get a surprise when it hits the port.
that's exactly what i was waiting for. a surprise when it hit customs. got through no differently
Maybe this is all still paused. I can't keep up with it. Hope you've got plenty of margin built in, just in case.
we do. we're all in the same boat either way. but i can't keep up with it either. we're just going forward waiting for an oh fck surprise and will deal with it then like the rest of the shitty business owners
I had to deal with all that shit back under Trump 1.0. It was a PITA and expensive, but at least it was straightforward and none of this on-again, off-again shit.
Maybe we should print another 5 trillion and let in 10 million illegals so we can say we can say we created a bunch of jobs? Are you in need of a nanny and gardener?It's so impressive. The 💥
Mine haven't been deported yet 😂
Or maybe start another COVID, force people to stay at home, and when they're allowed to return back to work count those as new jobs created.
I really don't understand why you want to call AH a liberal. Your attitude (follow the party line no matter what) is what has got this country in the shape it's in. I wish some senators and representatives on both sides would learn to think for themselves rather than just following what the leaders says. AH doesn't like Trump and I agree with him on a lot of things. The only difference between us is the fact that I was more afraid of Harris than I was Trump.
The best thing the fed could do is learn to keep their mouth shut. I wonder how many shenanigans go on with them. You can't tell me that they don't have buddies that know what they are gonna say at their next press conference and either sell or buy depending on what they are gonna say.
Considering I didn't vote for Trump in 2016 or 2020, I'm not really good at following the party line. @hookyIU1990 never voted for Trump and I have never once considered him a liberal because he doesn't spend 90% of his time complaining about Trump or the GOP. Now compare that to Aloha who spends 90% of his time complaining about the GOP and Trump. Shit, he was for the stupid immigration bill that would have allowed in almost 2 million illegals a year. I call Aloha a liberal because he is one. For the record, I don't care that he is a liberal.
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It takes all kinds. I don't really care who is liberal or conservative. It's the tribalism that's killing us. That's what really burns my ass.
Well, that and a 3' tall flame.
Plus people who expect others to subsidize their poor choices.
Those senators and reps do think, NPT.
But what they think about isn't what is best for the country, it's what is best to help them get reelected. And those politicians know if they buck the party--Trump--on most things today, they will get a serious primary against them because their districts, i.e. their voters, want them to follow what Trump does.
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Damn it, beat me to it while I was looking for the perfect GIF
Well. One I was too young and successful and handsome. No way she wouldn’t be traded in. The other was way too hot to settle for someone no longer young and handsome and certainly not remotely successful enough to justify staying.
Sooooo. They made bad choices I subsidize
That would be funny if it wasn't so true.
No one that knows me would ever consider me a liberal. What I criticize is the President’s and MAGA’s stupid, not conservative, policies and culture. You make the same leap that other MAGAs make; I don’t like the President’s ridiculousness and I don’t demonstrate “proper” deference and loyalty to Him, I’m labeled a liberal. It doesn’t matter that I don’t support liberal policies and don’t even consider the idea of joining that party because it really is all about Trump.
You cannot make me a liberal just by calling me a liberal. That’s really dumb. Republicans are not required to agree on every issue or demonstrate blind loyalty to a person I truly believe is a lunatic.
Some tips to help you seem like a conservative:
1. Don't vote for Joe Biden
2. Don't complain about Trump 90% of the time when he isn't the President.
3. When Joe Biden is President spend 90% of your time complaining about his terrible polices
4. Don't advocate for border bills that allow 2 million illegals in a year
5. Be for DOGE and government cuts
6. In the months that have 28 days say Bush was a f#cking idiot who cost the country trillions of dollars
Feel free to jot those down on a small notepad you can keep in your back pocket for a reminder.
