So I recall the first doctor video I watched about Covid. Way back at the beginning.
On March 6, Kentucky Governor Beshear confirmed the first state case of Covid and declared a state of emergency and Covid moved local.
A Paducah physician and his wife (a nurse - so Jamie’s Balls can stop reading here) created a video in their living room in an attempt to just deliver data and medical common sense.
The “cytokine storm” was already the main issue nationally, but flyover country was not yet high in numbers.
His report was that, based on virus history and what was already known about Covid, if 1,000 people got enough viral load to test positive, 80% (800) would never know it, 80% of the rest (160) would have very mild symptoms, 80% (32) of the rest would need basic/minor medical treatment by physicians and could ride it out at home, and the rest (8) would need hospital/ICU/vents. Ish. +/- And the 8 per thousand would overwhelm the system, so slowing down the spread was a good idea medically.
1. Does anybody have stats that disagree with this prediction In a statistically-significant manner?
2. is it fair to expect a medical system that can handle such a crisis better than we have? (In Kentucky, hospitals were kept as empty as possible, and field tent hospitals were set up to handle the “overwhelm.” It never happened. In part, of course, because Kentucky was shut down to slow the spread. Even today, however, with Omicron 3 times the highest previous numbers of any variant, regular beds, ICU beds and vents are still available and are filled mostly (majority) with non-Covid patients. So still, is questioning our “performance” reasonable or unfair?
On March 6, Kentucky Governor Beshear confirmed the first state case of Covid and declared a state of emergency and Covid moved local.
A Paducah physician and his wife (a nurse - so Jamie’s Balls can stop reading here) created a video in their living room in an attempt to just deliver data and medical common sense.
The “cytokine storm” was already the main issue nationally, but flyover country was not yet high in numbers.
His report was that, based on virus history and what was already known about Covid, if 1,000 people got enough viral load to test positive, 80% (800) would never know it, 80% of the rest (160) would have very mild symptoms, 80% (32) of the rest would need basic/minor medical treatment by physicians and could ride it out at home, and the rest (8) would need hospital/ICU/vents. Ish. +/- And the 8 per thousand would overwhelm the system, so slowing down the spread was a good idea medically.
1. Does anybody have stats that disagree with this prediction In a statistically-significant manner?
2. is it fair to expect a medical system that can handle such a crisis better than we have? (In Kentucky, hospitals were kept as empty as possible, and field tent hospitals were set up to handle the “overwhelm.” It never happened. In part, of course, because Kentucky was shut down to slow the spread. Even today, however, with Omicron 3 times the highest previous numbers of any variant, regular beds, ICU beds and vents are still available and are filled mostly (majority) with non-Covid patients. So still, is questioning our “performance” reasonable or unfair?
