If your turnout % is mainly high proficiency voters who were going to vote anyway, that lessens the odds that the amateurish GOTV effort your running is going to be able to turn out the amount of lesser proficiency voters you're going to need to rely on to counteract the lead the Dems have built up during early voting.
Elon is an idiot, so no idea why you'd refer to his "knowledge" of elections? The total GOP vote in PA up to now is 458,055 so what does he mean when he says that the GOP is doing 435,000 better than 2020? Is he saying only around 23,000 Republicans returned mail ballots in 2020? The reality is that 623,404 mail votes at a rate of 79.4 % were returned by PA Republicans in 2020.
The discrepancy is that in 2020 Dems returned 1,702,484 and their total for this year is only 837,916, so turnout is not as high as 2020 overall. And the Dems don't have as large a lead as they had heading into 2020 election day...But that is only significant if you assume that the electorate on election day in 2024 will look the same as in 2020.
Dems are seeing a higher % of their low-proficiency voters vote early compared to the Pubs.Before 2020 it was the GOP that participated in mail and early voting at a higher rate than Dems. So if the opposite is true in 2024 it's really a return to form. The fact that Elon applies such a simplistic analysis to the early numbers in PA, and he is in charge of their GOTV effort shows why they are in such trouble.
Dems believe based on the data that a large % of GOP early voters have been regular voters, which means they're going to have to count on Bro crew type men to vote on a single day, election day. Also in 2022 the youth vote in PA was pro-Democrat, and a lot of those voters register as non-affiliated. The Dems need to turn out their coalition in PA on election day. If they do they'll win...