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Forget Republicans and Blacks. What about Democrats and Christians?

TheOriginalHappyGoat

Moderator
Moderator
Oct 4, 2010
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Margaritaville
Here's a topic for Sunday.

We've discussed ad nauseam the perception that the GOP has aligned itself as effectively anti-black. Rightly or wrongly, the feeling among many is that only one major political party has the interests of blacks - as a community - at heart. We've also discussed the possibility that the future of the GOP depends on them reversing this perception.

When thinking of Presidential elections, this makes sense. Democrats have a structural advantage in the Electoral College, and if the GOP alienates the black vote, it simply reinforces that advantage.

But as I've whined about before, the GOP enjoys the structural advantage in Congressional elections. So in that context, it's the Democratic party which needs to expand its voter base.

I wonder if Democrats are leaving votes on the table by not doing more to fight the perception that Democrats generally - and liberals specifically - are anti-Christian. Consider the facts:

Most Democrats are Christian.
40% of Democrats attend church weekly (it's 50% for Republicans)
Religious Republicans are more likely to be under 30; religious Democrats are more likely to be over 30
Catholics are more likely to be Dem by roughly the same amount that Protestants are more likely to be Repub (48/43 vs. 50/43)

Religious Democrats are growing older. Religious Republicans are young and vibrant. While both the Catholic and Protestant churches are losing followers, Catholics are losing them at a far faster clip. The Democratic party is, demographically, becoming more secular. But at the same time, it's not an entirely secular party. Religion is, overall, still very strong in the Democratic party.

And yet, the impression I get is that people view the Democratic party as the party of atheists, agnostics and secularists.

This doesn't need to be true. To be Christian and to be Conservative are not the same thing. Many Christians espouse liberal views, and many of them believe that their liberal views are quite in line with the teachings of Christ. Even on abortion, almost one-third of Democrats consider themselves pro-life, and many pro-choice Democrats are of the pragmatic sort - they believe pro-choice policies, combined with other socially conscious policies, are best for reducing the number of abortions in the long-term. The official Democratic position is that abortion should be "legal, safe and rare." Yet, the image of the party is "abortion on demand."

Anyway, long story short, I wonder if Democrats are giving up on the fight for the values/morals/Christian voter when they don't need to. There are many Christians - and yes, pragmatically, we're mostly talking about white Protestants, and white Catholics to a lesser extent - who agree with the Democrats on many issues, but are perhaps turned away by this image that has been developed of the party as anti-Christian.

If Democrats could capture more of the Christian vote, perhaps the concern about the GOP and the minority vote would be irrelevant.

Thoughts?

goat
 
The most recent exit polls show a trend.




2014 National House Vote by Religion



This post was edited on 12/14 8:08 AM by Ladoga
 
Ladoga, your link supports Goat's...

...conclusion, "But as I've whined about before, the GOP enjoys the structural advantage in Congressional elections. So in that context, it's the Democratic party which needs to expand its voter base."

However, it doesn't deal with Goats's other conclusion, "When thinking of Presidential elections, this makes sense. Democrats have a structural advantage in the Electoral College, and if the GOP alienates the black vote, it simply reinforces that advantage."

My question to both of you, What are the statistics on Black Christians and whether they support the Democrats to the same extent as non-religious Blacks?. Also, what about young Blacks? Finally, just how religious are Blacks?
 
And my link doesn't

include exit polling in Presidential years, but it IS nationwide in that it polls US House voters - that's all of us in an off year.
And it Is the latest number.

I am looking for the question you posed regarding black religious voters. Meanwhile, the mirror image is in those exit polls in that they separate out white voters in the religious categories leaving the reader to do the math - or at least get a general idea of the obverse.

After the 2012 election I thought it hard to examine the electoral college future. Then I figured out/learned that the 4 million Republicans who didn't come vote for Romney are basically fundamental Christians who didn't vote.

Put them back in the equation along with the Reagan/white middle income Democrats who are leaving the fold in droves and voting Republican for virtually all policy making positions and there is a nice wide boulevard to 271 for Republicans.

But I'll look for more research and ask a couple guys who do that sort of thing.
This post was edited on 12/14 10:42 AM by Ladoga
 
Here is a link to Pew in September


that has some basic statistics on black protestant intentions for the 2014 elections.

There is scant data. I linked the article because the chart in it wouldn't allow me to paste it here.

Bit of Date
 
Thanks Ladoga

I thought the GOP would do much better among say Black Protestants than 10%.
 
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