WHY Crean is not going to make IU "Elite" again

[indianascout1991]

C'mon Scott.

700 transfers - but we're gonna spread them out over ALL the schools? Doesn't it make more sense to get an averaged based on the number of transfers divided by the number of school with a transfer out?

Tell me one other coach in NCAA D1 basketball that has had the roster turnover that Crean has had since he's been at IU? Calipari comes to mind - but we all know why those kids are leaving. He's had very few transfers (Wiltjer). Please, give me some examples that even come close to Crean's numbers

Who cares?

 

[hgdownunder]

Not a troll at all since I have been a IU fan since 1976. Most of the time I really believe in what I am discussing but when you guys get riled up it is fun to egg you guys on because it is easy.

Strange, I thought it was the others that were egging you on.

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

Who cares?

You did enough to respond.

Thanks

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

Yes it is to much but it really is not much above the average in college basketball. I just think it is a problem all across college basketball and something needs to be done to stop all the transfers.

Two things:

1) You tell all of us who have issues with Crean what are we going to do to try to make things better. Same applies here, Scott - if you think it's such a problem, what is the solution?

2) Want to clarify what you mean by "problem". That we have so many change of schools, or the underlying reasons WHY?

 

[hondo314]

Who cares?

oh geez. well, programs achieving more than us don't have this kind of turnover. STOP -- don't list some one-offs like Izzo this year or compare this to UK's kids going pro. we're talking consistent high-turnover. it's like defense and scheduling for stronger SOS -- just would be nice if a dude paid like the best did these things like the best. there seems to be a strong correlation, if not direct causation, between these three items and winning big. lol

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

oh geez. well, programs achieving more than us don't have this kind of turnover. STOP -- don't list some one-offs like Izzo this year or compare this to UK's kids going pro. we're talking consistent high-turnover. it's like defense and scheduling for stronger SOS -- just would be nice if a dude paid like the best did these things like the best. there seems to be a strong correlation, if not direct causation, between these three items and winning big. lol

^^^^^^^this

 

[becauseIknow]

Numbers don't lie. Tom Crean isn’t going to get us there, folks. The eye test in games like Duke, Michigan St, Syracuse in 2013, etc . . .gives an indication of that. The stats confirm it.

Numbers lie all the time.

"Figures lie and liars figure."

Using your logic, based on what Bob Knight did his first 15 years, he should have continued to do it moving forward, because that was the baseline. Or are you saying this only applies to Crean? You have no idea what will happen in the future with Crean or any coach at IU. Using your logic, if you evaluated John Wooden's first 15+ years, you would say he would never win a national title. Good try though, the effort was solid. Stamina almost as good as ShirtsSkins (and his other usernames from the past).

 

[Shirtsandskins]

Numbers lie all the time.

"Figures lie and liars figure."

Using your logic, based on what Bob Knight did his first 15 years, he should have continued to do it moving forward, because that was the baseline. Or are you saying this only applies to Crean? You have no idea what will happen in the future with Crean or any coach at IU. Using your logic, if you evaluated John Wooden's first 15+ years, you would say he would never win a national title. Good try though, the effort was solid. Stamina almost as good as ShirtsSkins (and his other usernames from the past).

Apples to apples and you are using West Point during the Vietnam war...umm yeah you're fair and balanced

Bob Knight Army .671 winning %
Tom Crean. MU. .664

But yeah I guess it's easier at school with height limitations and a ticket to Vietnam waiting for you

John wooden 1946-61 Nine conference titles 4 seconds 2 thirds

Tom Crean 3 conference titles 7 times fifth or lower(not counting

John wasn't winning it all but at least he was always in the conversation

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

Numbers lie all the time.

"Figures lie and liars figure."

Using your logic, based on what Bob Knight did his first 15 years, he should have continued to do it moving forward, because that was the baseline. Or are you saying this only applies to Crean? You have no idea what will happen in the future with Crean or any coach at IU. Using your logic, if you evaluated John Wooden's first 15+ years, you would say he would never win a national title. Good try though, the effort was solid. Stamina almost as good as ShirtsSkins (and his other usernames from the past).

Weren't you the guy who was complaining about name-calling - yet you're labeling me a liar? Nice . . .

SnS covered the issues RMK had coaching West Point. As far as continued success, you really trying to compare Tom Crean to Bob Knight?

What the numbers show is how these teams/coaches do in different aspects of the game. No, it doesn't guarantee it will 100% repeat. But if you look at the body of work over Crean's career, you see why he hasn't had consistent success.

If you choose to ignore the facts, that's up to you. Most can look at this and see the correlation to winning at a high level. Really not hard to understand.

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

Using your logic, if you evaluated John Wooden's first 15+ years, you would say he would never win a national title.

Sam Gilbert.

Wooden wasn't going anywhere until Sam came along.

 

[becauseIknow]

Weren't you the guy who was complaining about name-calling - yet you're labeling me a liar? Nice . . .

SnS covered the issues RMK had coaching West Point. As far as continued success, you really trying to compare Tom Crean to Bob Knight?

What the numbers show is how these teams/coaches do in different aspects of the game. No, it doesn't guarantee it will 100% repeat. But if you look at the body of work over Crean's career, you see why he hasn't had consistent success.

If you choose to ignore the facts, that's up to you. Most can look at this and see the correlation to winning at a high level. Really not hard to understand.

I put it in quotes because it is an age old saying. No one is calling you specifically a liar, but stats can be made to say anything.

I wasn't even using Knight's years at Army, I was talking about IU.

So let's use some other examples to drive the point home.

Mike Brey. ND coach for 16 years. In the first 14 years, zero Elite 8's. Using your wonderful stats and logic, you would start a thread on the ND board saying "Why Brey is not going to make ND elite again" and you go on and on about his lack of deep runs. Last two seasons, Elite 8. HOW CAN THIS BE? How can a coach that has been around for 21 years not have a deep run until years 20 and 21? How can this be?

Jon Beilein. Took him 20 years as a DI head coach to get to a Final Four. How can this be?

 

[becauseIknow]

Sam Gilbert.

Wooden wasn't going anywhere until Sam came along.

I think you may want to go back through history of Gilbert's involvement and when it started. Your statement is lacking historical perspective. Wooden had achieved significant success before Gilbert did anything. That doesn't excuse Gilbert's involvement or that he played a role of shadiness and cheating in the late 60's and early 70's, but Wooden had success long before that.

 

[DCDAVID]

C'mon Scott.

700 transfers - but we're gonna spread them out over ALL the schools? Doesn't it make more sense to get an averaged based on the number of transfers divided by the number of school with a transfer out?

Tell me one other coach in NCAA D1 basketball that has had the roster turnover that Crean has had since he's been at IU? Calipari comes to mind - but we all know why those kids are leaving. He's had very few transfers (Wiltjer). Please, give me some examples that even come close to Crean's numbers

OK.
This is in the past but I will give you an example of roster turnover...
After we won the championship in 1976 this happened between April 1976 and December 13th 1978 ( a little over 2 years). The roster churned by TEN (10) players in two year including:
Tommy Baker - kicked off
Don Cox - kicked off
Jim Roberson - kicked off
Mark Haymore - UMass ( "needed to leave bad atmosphere")
Bob Bender - Duke
Mike Miday - ("could not stand how I was treated as a human being")
Rich Valavicious - Auburn ("I hated playing there. I am bitter about it")
Derek Holcomb - U of Illinois

 

[Shirtsandskins]

I put it in quotes because it is an age old saying. No one is calling you specifically a liar, but stats can be made to say anything.

I wasn't even using Knight's years at Army, I was talking about IU.

So let's use some other examples to drive the point home.

Mike Brey. ND coach for 16 years. In the first 14 years, zero Elite 8's. Using your wonderful stats and logic, you would start a thread on the ND board saying "Why Brey is not going to make ND elite again" and you go on and on about his lack of deep runs. Last two seasons, Elite 8. HOW CAN THIS BE? How can a coach that has been around for 21 years not have a deep run until years 20 and 21? How can this be?

Jon Beilein. Took him 20 years as a DI head coach to get to a Final Four. How can this be?

So you don't count five of TC 17yrs but you are counting Beilein coaching at Canisius and Richmond? Nice

And yes I would say that Brey will not make ND elite...

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

OK.
This is in the past but I will give you an example of roster turnover...
After we won the championship in 1976 this happened between April 1976 and December 13th 1978 ( a little over 2 years). The roster churned by TEN (10) players in two year including:
Tommy Baker - kicked off
Don Cox - kicked off
Jim Roberson - kicked off
Trent Smock
Mark Haymore - UMass ( "needed to leave bad atmosphere")
Bob Bender - Duke
Mike Miday - ("could not stand how I was treated as a human being")
Rich Valavicious - Auburn ("I hated playing there. I am bitter about it")
Derek Holcomb - U of Illinois

How many of those guys were forced out by Knight?

Baker, Cox & Roberson were tossed for lying about smoking pot. Smock decided to concentrate on football (he was drafted by the Lions).

 

[Shirtsandskins]

OK.
This is in the past but I will give you an example of roster turnover...
After we won the championship in 1976 this happened between April 1976 and December 13th 1978 ( a little over 2 years). The roster churned by TEN (10) players in two year including:
Tommy Baker - kicked off
Don Cox - kicked off
Jim Roberson - kicked off
Mark Haymore - UMass ( "needed to leave bad atmosphere")
Bob Bender - Duke
Mike Miday - ("could not stand how I was treated as a human being")
Rich Valavicious - Auburn ("I hated playing there. I am bitter about it")
Derek Holcomb - U of Illinois

RMK did have transfer issues, but I don't think they were as bad as what we've seen here the last few years

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

So you don't count five of TC 17yrs but you are counting Beilein coaching at Canisius and Richmond? Nice

And yes I would say that Brey will not make ND elite...

He tells me "Figures lie and Liars figure" - yet twists whatever facts/figures to try to prove a point. Quite funny.

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

RMK did have transfer issues, but I don't think they were as bad as what we've seen here the last few years

Not even close.

 

[DCDAVID]

How many of those guys were forced out by Knight?

Baker, Cox & Roberson were tossed for lying about smoking pot. Smock decided to concentrate on football (he was drafted by the Lions).

Yes Baker, Cox and Roberson were thrown out for smoking pot.
Does that mean you do not count Hanner, Davis and Holt for partying?
I do not get your logic. You imply turnover has never happened in the history of the game, except with Crean, but Knight had 10 guys leave in a couple of years. Some for pot and others because they could not stand it.

 

[DCDAVID]

Not even close.

That is not true.

 

[Shirtsandskins]

That is not true.

Do you have the actual numbers?

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

Yes Baker, Cox and Roberson were thrown out for smoking pot.
Does that mean you do not count Hanner, Davis and Holt for partying?
I do not get your logic. You imply turnover has never happened in the history of the game, except with Crean, but Knight had 10 guys leave in a couple of years. Some for pot and others because they could not stand it.

Where did I "imply" that?

Bob Knight had issues with transfers mainly because of his demanding style. Again, tell me another coach since 2008-09 (besides Crean) who has had the roster turnover that he has had?

 

[nitro1947-7]

DC don't bicker with these 2.. tas enjoys keeping this post at top..even answers himself at times

 

[DCDAVID]

And is was not just end of the bench guys.
Knight landed 19 burger boys.
Let's not count I. Thomas or Edwards as roster turnover because they went early to the NBA.
That leave 17 burger boys. 8/17 were either booted or transferred.
We are talking Burger Boys (not Jurkin etc).....8/17!!

 

[Shirtsandskins]

And is was not just end of the bench guys.
Knight landed 19 burger boys.
Let's not count I. Thomas as roster turnover because he went to the NBA.
That leave 18 burger boys. 8/18 were either booted or transferred.
We are talking Burger Boys (not Jurkin etc).....8/18.

Is anyone claiming that RMK didn't have a lot of transfers?

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

Do you have the actual numbers?

Tom Crean has recruited 38 players to IU since 2008 (Matt Roth was counted in 2009 by mistake on Wiki). Thirty-Eight players.


Of those 38:


7 - exhausted their eligibility and graduated

1- graduated w/ 2 degrees (Roth) and had eligibility left, but had his scholarship pulled

17- either were homesick / wanted more time / got kicked off


18 of 38 either didn't want to leave, were sick of the surroundings, or screwed up so bad they were shown the door - after multiple offenses (One continued to play after multiple offenses before finally being shown the door).

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

And is was not just end of the bench guys.
Knight landed 19 burger boys.
Let's not count I. Thomas or Edwards as roster turnover because they went early to the NBA.
That leave 17 burger boys. 8/17 were either booted or transferred.
We are talking Burger Boys (not Jurkin etc).....8/17!!

Please list them.

 

[Shirtsandskins]

Please list them.

Tom Baker - 1977

Ray Tolbert - 1977

Landon Turner - 1978

Isiah Thomas - 1979

John Flowers - 1981

Daryl Thomas - 1983

Delray Brooks - 1984

Ricky Calloway - 1985

Jay Edwards - 1987

Eric Anderson - 1988

Greg Graham - 1989

Pat Graham - 1989

Damon Bailey - 1990

Alan Henderson - 1991

Sherron Wilkerson - 1993

Andrae Patterson - 1994

 Neil Reed - 1994

Jason Collier - 1996

Luke Recker - 1997

Dane Fife - 1998

Jared Jeffries - 2000&#

The mid nineties was a rough stretch on and off the court

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

Tom Baker - 1977

Ray Tolbert - 1977

Landon Turner - 1978

Isiah Thomas - 1979

John Flowers - 1981

Daryl Thomas - 1983

Delray Brooks - 1984

Ricky Calloway - 1985

Jay Edwards - 1987

Eric Anderson - 1988

Greg Graham - 1989

Pat Graham - 1989

Damon Bailey - 1990

Alan Henderson - 1991

Sherron Wilkerson - 1993

Andrae Patterson - 1994

 Neil Reed - 1994

Jason Collier - 1996

Luke Recker - 1997

Dane Fife - 1998

Jared Jeffries - 2000&#

The mid nineties was a rough stretch on and off the court

So let me get this straight.

Bob Knight brings in top basketball players - but some of them couldn't hold up to his demanding style/tactics and left.

Tom Crean brings in Jeremiah April, Max Hoetzel, et all . . . as reaches because of big recruiting misses/roster mis-management.

Both of those are equal.

Got it . . .

 

[Shirtsandskins]

So let me get this straight.

Bob Knight brings in top basketball players - but some of them couldn't hold up to his demanding style/tactics and left.

Tom Crean brings in Jeremiah April, Max Hoetzel, et all . . . as reaches because of big recruiting misses/roster mis-management.

Both of those are equal.

Got it . . .

Apparently

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

DC don't bicker with these 2.. tas enjoys keeping this post at top..even answers himself at times

Tas likes to deal with FACTS.

Ignore them if you wish

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

I think you may want to go back through history of Gilbert's involvement and when it started. Your statement is lacking historical perspective. Wooden had achieved significant success before Gilbert did anything. That doesn't excuse Gilbert's involvement or that he played a role of shadiness and cheating in the late 60's and early 70's, but Wooden had success long before that.

Define "long".

Wooden went to a Final Four in 1962 just as Gilbert was beginning to become a player in helping out UCLA. Even on those 1st two title teams (1964/1965) there was money being given to guys for how many rebounds/etc . . .they got in a game.

But let's be generous here. Let's say that there was no involvement by Gilbert on those first two teams (money was being thrown around to players left and right and it's hard to believe Gilbert wasn't involved in any of it, but we'll take that position anyways). From at least 1966 on - when Gilbert helped convince Lucius Allen and Alcindor to not transfer - He DEFINITELY was involved.

So for 8 of Wooden's 10 championships Sam Gilbert provided extras as bad - if not worse - than what SMU got the Death Penalty for.

 

[becauseIknow]

Define "long".

Wooden went to a Final Four in 1962 just as Gilbert was beginning to become a player in helping out UCLA. Even on those 1st two title teams (1964/1965) there was money being given to guys for how many rebounds/etc . . .they got in a game.

But let's be generous here. Let's say that there was no involvement by Gilbert on those first two teams (money was being thrown around to players left and right and it's hard to believe Gilbert wasn't involved in any of it, but we'll take that position anyways). From at least 1966 on - when Gilbert helped convince Lucius Allen and Alcindor to not transfer - He DEFINITELY was involved.

So for 8 of Wooden's 10 championships Sam Gilbert provided extras as bad - if not worse - than what SMU got the Death Penalty for.

Prostitutes were provided to UCLA players like they were at SMU? Houses? Provide the data to back that up.

Lucius Allen, if you know your history, had a letter written to him by the Governor of Kansas trying to get him to transfer and was promised royalty if he did. That, also against NCAA rules.

How much impact Gilbert had on UCLA is way overstated and part of mythology. It is complete hyperbole for you to compare it to SMU and what they were doing.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1153

I have a question for you, do you think in the history of Indiana there hasn't been a few folks that helped athletes out, steered them certain directions? I'd think long and hard before you answer that.

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

Prostitutes were provided to UCLA players like they were at SMU? Houses? Provide the data to back that up.

I thought we were talking about UCLA and SMU, not Louisville.


Just when did I say prostitutes were provided to UCLA? Gilbert paid for abortions, but no hookers that I know of. And I’ve read the book “A Payroll to Meet” by David Whitford and watched the 30 for 30 film “The Pony Excess” at least 5 times and don’t recall anything about hookers being provided. Like to back that claim up?

Lucius Allen, if you know your history, had a letter written to him by the Governor of Kansas trying to get him to transfer and was promised royalty if he did. That, also against NCAA rules.

Yes, Allen was promised everything short of the moon to come home to the Jayhawks. Alcindor was considering leaving for Michigan. Both stayed at UCLA after talking with Gilbert (which was the beginning of having direct access to the players. How much he was involved before is unknown and undocumented).

Does it really matter, though, what the Governor of Kansas might have offered Allen? How does that acquit what Gilbert and UCLA did?

How much impact Gilbert had on UCLA is way overstated and part of mythology. It is complete hyperbole for you to compare it to SMU and what they were doing.

Look up the LA Times investigative piece from Feb 1982. Sure, the hometown newspaper had it all wrong – just hyperbole . . .

I have a question for you, do you think in the history of Indiana there hasn't been a few folks that helped athletes out, steered them certain directions? I'd think long and hard before you answer that.

Yes, I know we were put on probation for illegal benefits for football players in 1960. Again, what does that have to do with what Sam Gilbert did at UCLA – other than to act as a diversion?

 

[nitro1947-7]

Keep this crap at the top taz

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

Keep this crap at the top taz

Actually, nitro, I hadn't posted on this since last Monday.

But thanks for "your" contribution to keeping it at the top . . . You crack me up

 

[nitro1947-7]

I've known many men ,whom love nothing but attention and u my friend are among the top.
You seem to need something else in your life ...try soccer

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

I've known many men ,whom love nothing but attention and u my friend are among the top.
You seem to need something else in your life ...try soccer

Are you looking in the mirror?

I didn't revive this thread - it was becauseIknowItAll. After I had last posted in this thread on May 2nd.

Yet YOU complain about me wanting to keep it at the top?

Keep this crap at the top taz

And now YOU continue to keep it up there, but want to tell me I want attention?

Hold on a second . . .

<BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA>

Don't know the definition of irony, do you? Again, you crack me up . . .

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

We’ve gone back and forth on here several times this past year – really, since the Syracuse loss 3 years ago – on whether Tom Crean is the right coach for Indiana.


Some of you think he’s doing a great job. Others, while hoping for better results, were pretty satisfied with this past season.


Me? Most of you know by now my feelings on Tom Crean. It’s not that I want to feel this way; in fact, I was thrilled when he was hired in 2008 (thought he should have been in 2006 instead of Sampson).


But after the past 8 years – especially the last three – I’ve had to face a sobering reality: what we’ve seen from Tom Crean-led teams up to this point (and throughout his head coaching career) is what we’re gonna get. It just is. I’ve been privileged to get to know a lot of coaches both in HS and AAU in the past decade, and they’ve helped open my eyes to WHY Tom Crean teams fair as they do.

As I’ve said before many times, Crean wants to play a fast-paced style (like UNC or UK) but his teams don’t do the things necessary to have success on an elite level consistently. That is the key here – consistently.


Take a look at some stats with me. I shared some of the following in another thread, but want to go more into detail here. This link looks at how teams statistically perform each year – it goes all the way back to the 1997-98 season. You can look up almost every conceivable stat, but the ones that are the strongest indicators of how successful a team is/isn’t are offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, turnovers and rebounds. (You can choose which stat link you wish at the top).


Why these stats? Obviously, scoring more points than the other team is the objective. But just HOW do you do that? Just by simply shooting the ball well? That helps, obviously - but what happens when you run into a really good defensive team in a tournament format (either BTT or NCAA)? You have to (and I’ve had numerous coaches tell me this over the past 10 years) maximize possessions. You can shoot at a lower percentage than your opponent IF you get more attempts. And to do that, you have to do the other things besides shooting the ball well.


Let’s take a look at this past season. I’ve said on here numerous times this year that the 2015-16 Hoosiers were overly reliant on offense for their success, and that Crean wants to play like North Carolina and Kentucky. Let’s see a statistical comparison between those three teams, starting with offense:

2016        Tom Crean      Roy Williams  John Calipari

Off. Eff    1.169 (1)      1.153 (4)      1.127 (11)

IU led the nation in offensive efficiency – ahead of both the Tar Heels and Wildcats. In 17 years as a Head Basketball Coach, his teams have been Top 10 5 times, Top 5 four times and led the nation twice (2016,2003). Conversely, Roy Williams has had 7 season with Top 5 offenses since 1997-98 (the link provided only goes back to that season) and John Calipari has had 2 top 10 offensive teams (he did, however, have 11th rated teams in both 2015 and 2016). So, no doubt, Crean is capable of coaching offense with either of these two guys.


But what is the old adage? “Defense wins championships”. Let’s take a look at how each team fared defensively in 2015-16:

2016        Tom Crean      Roy Williams  John Calipari

Def. Eff    .989 (106)    .976 (82)      .965 (51)

On the surface, that doesn’t look too bad, does it? Crean appears to be close to both Williams and Calipari in producing an adequate defense.


But over 17 years as a coach, the past season was Crean’s 6th best defensive team. Since 1998, Williams has had FIFTEEN teams that were better defensively (6 in top 25, one of those as high as 3rd), while Calipari since 2000-01 (16 seasons) has had ELEVEN better teams than the #51 team of this past year – six of which were top 10 defenses with two #1’s and two #2’s.


Let’s take a look at a real problem this past year for IU – Turnovers. Check out these 2015-16 numbers:

2016        Tom Crean      Roy Williams  John Calipari

TO / gm    13.4 (258)    10.8 (29)      11.2 (49)

IU averaged almost 3 turnovers more per game than UNC, a little over 2 more than UK. Again (as I was told by a certain coach) you can’t give possessions away and hope to achieve at a high level. This has killed some of Crean’s better teams (they averaged 13.0 a game in 2013; not surprisingly, his best team (2003) averaged 12.5 on the way to the Final Four. Calipari teams at Memphis and UK have averaged 12.7/yr since 2001, while the 10.8 was an all-time low for Williams (and look at what the result was – national runner-up). Williams teams since 1998 have averaged 14.2 turnovers, slightly higher Crean (although his numbers are trending better the last 7-8 years than he did in the early 2000’s).


Now comes the real separation between Crean and the other two – rebounding:


2015-16

2016        Tom Crean      Roy Williams  John Calipari

Reb / gm    36.8 (119)    40.6 (15)      38.8 (50)

IU lost out on nearly 4 more possessions per game this past season than UNC, exactly two more per game than UK.


And Calipari and Williams didn’t even have some of their better rebounding teams this year. Since 1998 (19 seasons), Roy Williams has had 15 of his teams finish in the top 10 in the nation in rebounding; 12 of those teams were top 5, with 4 #1’s, 2 #2’s and 2 #3’s. That’s right, EIGHT teams in the top 3!! He has produced 11 teams that averaged 40 or more rebounds. Calipari has had 6 top 10 rebounding teams (2 top 5) and produced 6 teams that averaged 40 or more.


Tom Crean? In 17 years as a head coach, Crean has not had a SINGLE TEAM either in the top 10 OR a team to average 40 rebounds.


Wanna know what is the worst? Take a look at the Strength of Schedules – both overall and Non-Conference:

Year    IU / Crean        UNC/RW        UK/Cal  

        SOS   NC-SOS   SOS  NC-SOS    SOS   NC-SOS

2016    64    265      6    106       39    62

2015    65    322      1    15        31    100

2014    58    335      19   126       3     62

2013    17    293      19   183       71    138

2012    16    273      35   85        28    177

2011    27    323      8    39        15    52

2010    61    321      10   170       53    223

2009    3     76       15   126       70    56

2008    39    286      3    109       67    59

2007    53    268      7    88        109   86

2006    18    205      22   173       85    31

2005    102   235      1    73        91    147

2004    108   265      1    68        63    112

2003    46    178      2    54        86    105

2002    90    251      10   26        101   206

Tom Crean-led teams – as demonstrated in the stats above – have consistently performed worse than the teams/coaches whose style of play he wants to emulate, all while playing a MUCH WORSE schedule than either of them.


Again, I don’t want to say this. But when you take a look at how his team performs, and take into account whom they’ve been playing, how can you say Tom Crean is the right coach and say in the same breath your goal is to be elite (as Fred Glass did at the end of last season)? There is a direct correlation between how these team perform statistically and how they fare(d) in the NCAA Tournament.


Numbers don't lie. Tom Crean isn’t going to get us there, folks. The eye test in games like Duke, Michigan St, Syracuse in 2013, etc . . .gives an indication of that. The stats confirm it.

Mid-season review of what I posted last spring. Still as true now as it was then.

 

[snarlcakes]

We’ve gone back and forth on here several times this past year – really, since the Syracuse loss 3 years ago – on whether Tom Crean is the right coach for Indiana.


Some of you think he’s doing a great job. Others, while hoping for better results, were pretty satisfied with this past season.


Me? Most of you know by now my feelings on Tom Crean. It’s not that I want to feel this way; in fact, I was thrilled when he was hired in 2008 (thought he should have been in 2006 instead of Sampson).


But after the past 8 years – especially the last three – I’ve had to face a sobering reality: what we’ve seen from Tom Crean-led teams up to this point (and throughout his head coaching career) is what we’re gonna get. It just is. I’ve been privileged to get to know a lot of coaches both in HS and AAU in the past decade, and they’ve helped open my eyes to WHY Tom Crean teams fair as they do.

As I’ve said before many times, Crean wants to play a fast-paced style (like UNC or UK) but his teams don’t do the things necessary to have success on an elite level consistently. That is the key here – consistently.


Take a look at some stats with me. I shared some of the following in another thread, but want to go more into detail here. This link looks at how teams statistically perform each year – it goes all the way back to the 1997-98 season. You can look up almost every conceivable stat, but the ones that are the strongest indicators of how successful a team is/isn’t are offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, turnovers and rebounds. (You can choose which stat link you wish at the top).


Why these stats? Obviously, scoring more points than the other team is the objective. But just HOW do you do that? Just by simply shooting the ball well? That helps, obviously - but what happens when you run into a really good defensive team in a tournament format (either BTT or NCAA)? You have to (and I’ve had numerous coaches tell me this over the past 10 years) maximize possessions. You can shoot at a lower percentage than your opponent IF you get more attempts. And to do that, you have to do the other things besides shooting the ball well.


Let’s take a look at this past season. I’ve said on here numerous times this year that the 2015-16 Hoosiers were overly reliant on offense for their success, and that Crean wants to play like North Carolina and Kentucky. Let’s see a statistical comparison between those three teams, starting with offense:

2016        Tom Crean      Roy Williams  John Calipari

Off. Eff    1.169 (1)      1.153 (4)      1.127 (11)

IU led the nation in offensive efficiency – ahead of both the Tar Heels and Wildcats. In 17 years as a Head Basketball Coach, his teams have been Top 10 5 times, Top 5 four times and led the nation twice (2016,2003). Conversely, Roy Williams has had 7 season with Top 5 offenses since 1997-98 (the link provided only goes back to that season) and John Calipari has had 2 top 10 offensive teams (he did, however, have 11th rated teams in both 2015 and 2016). So, no doubt, Crean is capable of coaching offense with either of these two guys.


But what is the old adage? “Defense wins championships”. Let’s take a look at how each team fared defensively in 2015-16:

2016        Tom Crean      Roy Williams  John Calipari

Def. Eff    .989 (106)    .976 (82)      .965 (51)

On the surface, that doesn’t look too bad, does it? Crean appears to be close to both Williams and Calipari in producing an adequate defense.


But over 17 years as a coach, the past season was Crean’s 6th best defensive team. Since 1998, Williams has had FIFTEEN teams that were better defensively (6 in top 25, one of those as high as 3rd), while Calipari since 2000-01 (16 seasons) has had ELEVEN better teams than the #51 team of this past year – six of which were top 10 defenses with two #1’s and two #2’s.


Let’s take a look at a real problem this past year for IU – Turnovers. Check out these 2015-16 numbers:

2016        Tom Crean      Roy Williams  John Calipari

TO / gm    13.4 (258)    10.8 (29)      11.2 (49)

IU averaged almost 3 turnovers more per game than UNC, a little over 2 more than UK. Again (as I was told by a certain coach) you can’t give possessions away and hope to achieve at a high level. This has killed some of Crean’s better teams (they averaged 13.0 a game in 2013; not surprisingly, his best team (2003) averaged 12.5 on the way to the Final Four. Calipari teams at Memphis and UK have averaged 12.7/yr since 2001, while the 10.8 was an all-time low for Williams (and look at what the result was – national runner-up). Williams teams since 1998 have averaged 14.2 turnovers, slightly higher Crean (although his numbers are trending better the last 7-8 years than he did in the early 2000’s).


Now comes the real separation between Crean and the other two – rebounding:


2015-16

2016        Tom Crean      Roy Williams  John Calipari

Reb / gm    36.8 (119)    40.6 (15)      38.8 (50)

IU lost out on nearly 4 more possessions per game this past season than UNC, exactly two more per game than UK.


And Calipari and Williams didn’t even have some of their better rebounding teams this year. Since 1998 (19 seasons), Roy Williams has had 15 of his teams finish in the top 10 in the nation in rebounding; 12 of those teams were top 5, with 4 #1’s, 2 #2’s and 2 #3’s. That’s right, EIGHT teams in the top 3!! He has produced 11 teams that averaged 40 or more rebounds. Calipari has had 6 top 10 rebounding teams (2 top 5) and produced 6 teams that averaged 40 or more.


Tom Crean? In 17 years as a head coach, Crean has not had a SINGLE TEAM either in the top 10 OR a team to average 40 rebounds.


Wanna know what is the worst? Take a look at the Strength of Schedules – both overall and Non-Conference:

Year    IU / Crean        UNC/RW        UK/Cal  

        SOS   NC-SOS   SOS  NC-SOS    SOS   NC-SOS

2016    64    265      6    106       39    62

2015    65    322      1    15        31    100

2014    58    335      19   126       3     62

2013    17    293      19   183       71    138

2012    16    273      35   85        28    177

2011    27    323      8    39        15    52

2010    61    321      10   170       53    223

2009    3     76       15   126       70    56

2008    39    286      3    109       67    59

2007    53    268      7    88        109   86

2006    18    205      22   173       85    31

2005    102   235      1    73        91    147

2004    108   265      1    68        63    112

2003    46    178      2    54        86    105

2002    90    251      10   26        101   206

Tom Crean-led teams – as demonstrated in the stats above – have consistently performed worse than the teams/coaches whose style of play he wants to emulate, all while playing a MUCH WORSE schedule than either of them.


Again, I don’t want to say this. But when you take a look at how his team performs, and take into account whom they’ve been playing, how can you say Tom Crean is the right coach and say in the same breath your goal is to be elite (as Fred Glass did at the end of last season)? There is a direct correlation between how these team perform statistically and how they fare(d) in the NCAA Tournament.


Numbers don't lie. Tom Crean isn’t going to get us there, folks. The eye test in games like Duke, Michigan St, Syracuse in 2013, etc . . .gives an indication of that. The stats confirm it.

Great post and information. I hadn't read it yet. I appreciate the time and effort.