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WHY Crean is not going to make IU "Elite" again

I would say that he is getting better and winning two outright championships is far from being second tier. Again nobody is saying that we are happy if this is he ceiling but I think we are going in the right direction.

okay, at least saying he's learning makes sense as hard as it is to swallow. the 3rd best team he's ever had did exactly what the 2nd best team he's ever had did and there were some bad years between. we can't say he's taking AP classes. :).

the best coaches in our league win conference titles and go deeeep in the NCAAs. We'll call it semantics then. He's at the bottom of the 1st tier, top of the 2nd? lol
 
We’ve gone back and forth on here several times this past year – really, since the Syracuse loss 3 years ago – on whether Tom Crean is the right coach for Indiana.


Some of you think he’s doing a great job. Others, while hoping for better results, were pretty satisfied with this past season.


Me? Most of you know by now my feelings on Tom Crean. It’s not that I want to feel this way; in fact, I was thrilled when he was hired in 2008 (thought he should have been in 2006 instead of Sampson).


But after the past 8 years – especially the last three – I’ve had to face a sobering reality: what we’ve seen from Tom Crean-led teams up to this point (and throughout his head coaching career) is what we’re gonna get. It just is. I’ve been privileged to get to know a lot of coaches both in HS and AAU in the past decade, and they’ve helped open my eyes to WHY Tom Crean teams fair as they do.

As I’ve said before many times, Crean wants to play a fast-paced style (like UNC or UK) but his teams don’t do the things necessary to have success on an elite level consistently. That is the key here – consistently.


Take a look at some stats with me. I shared some of the following in another thread, but want to go more into detail here. This link looks at how teams statistically perform each year – it goes all the way back to the 1997-98 season. You can look up almost every conceivable stat, but the ones that are the strongest indicators of how successful a team is/isn’t are offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, turnovers and rebounds. (You can choose which stat link you wish at the top).


Why these stats? Obviously, scoring more points than the other team is the objective. But just HOW do you do that? Just by simply shooting the ball well? That helps, obviously - but what happens when you run into a really good defensive team in a tournament format (either BTT or NCAA)? You have to (and I’ve had numerous coaches tell me this over the past 10 years) maximize possessions. You can shoot at a lower percentage than your opponent IF you get more attempts. And to do that, you have to do the other things besides shooting the ball well.


Let’s take a look at this past season. I’ve said on here numerous times this year that the 2015-16 Hoosiers were overly reliant on offense for their success, and that Crean wants to play like North Carolina and Kentucky. Let’s see a statistical comparison between those three teams, starting with offense:


Code:
2016        Tom Crean      Roy Williams  John Calipari

Off. Eff    1.169 (1)      1.153 (4)      1.127 (11)

IU led the nation in offensive efficiency – ahead of both the Tar Heels and Wildcats. In 17 years as a Head Basketball Coach, his teams have been Top 10 5 times, Top 5 four times and led the nation twice (2016,2003). Conversely, Roy Williams has had 7 season with Top 5 offenses since 1997-98 (the link provided only goes back to that season) and John Calipari has had 2 top 10 offensive teams (he did, however, have 11th rated teams in both 2015 and 2016). So, no doubt, Crean is capable of coaching offense with either of these two guys.


But what is the old adage? “Defense wins championships”. Let’s take a look at how each team fared defensively in 2015-16:


Code:
2016        Tom Crean      Roy Williams  John Calipari

Def. Eff    .989 (106)    .976 (82)      .965 (51)


On the surface, that doesn’t look too bad, does it? Crean appears to be close to both Williams and Calipari in producing an adequate defense.


But over 17 years as a coach, the past season was Crean’s 6th best defensive team. Since 1998, Williams has had FIFTEEN teams that were better defensively (6 in top 25, one of those as high as 3rd), while Calipari since 2000-01 (16 seasons) has had ELEVEN better teams than the #51 team of this past year – six of which were top 10 defenses with two #1’s and two #2’s.


Let’s take a look at a real problem this past year for IU – Turnovers. Check out these 2015-16 numbers:


Code:
2016        Tom Crean      Roy Williams  John Calipari

TO / gm    13.4 (258)    10.8 (29)      11.2 (49)


IU averaged almost 3 turnovers more per game than UNC, a little over 2 more than UK. Again (as I was told by a certain coach) you can’t give possessions away and hope to achieve at a high level. This has killed some of Crean’s better teams (they averaged 13.0 a game in 2013; not surprisingly, his best team (2003) averaged 12.5 on the way to the Final Four. Calipari teams at Memphis and UK have averaged 12.7/yr since 2001, while the 10.8 was an all-time low for Williams (and look at what the result was – national runner-up). Williams teams since 1998 have averaged 14.2 turnovers, slightly higher Crean (although his numbers are trending better the last 7-8 years than he did in the early 2000’s).


Now comes the real separation between Crean and the other two – rebounding:


2015-16

Code:
2016        Tom Crean      Roy Williams  John Calipari

Reb / gm    36.8 (119)    40.6 (15)      38.8 (50)


IU lost out on nearly 4 more possessions per game this past season than UNC, exactly two more per game than UK.


And Calipari and Williams didn’t even have some of their better rebounding teams this year. Since 1998 (19 seasons), Roy Williams has had 15 of his teams finish in the top 10 in the nation in rebounding; 12 of those teams were top 5, with 4 #1’s, 2 #2’s and 2 #3’s. That’s right, EIGHT teams in the top 3!! He has produced 11 teams that averaged 40 or more rebounds. Calipari has had 6 top 10 rebounding teams (2 top 5) and produced 6 teams that averaged 40 or more.


Tom Crean? In 17 years as a head coach, Crean has not had a SINGLE TEAM either in the top 10 OR a team to average 40 rebounds.


Wanna know what is the worst? Take a look at the Strength of Schedules – both overall and Non-Conference:


Code:
Year    IU / Crean        UNC/RW        UK/Cal  

        SOS   NC-SOS   SOS  NC-SOS    SOS   NC-SOS

2016    64    265      6    106       39    62

2015    65    322      1    15        31    100

2014    58    335      19   126       3     62

2013    17    293      19   183       71    138

2012    16    273      35   85        28    177

2011    27    323      8    39        15    52

2010    61    321      10   170       53    223

2009    3     76       15   126       70    56

2008    39    286      3    109       67    59

2007    53    268      7    88        109   86

2006    18    205      22   173       85    31

2005    102   235      1    73        91    147

2004    108   265      1    68        63    112

2003    46    178      2    54        86    105

2002    90    251      10   26        101   206


Tom Crean-led teams – as demonstrated in the stats above – have consistently performed worse than the teams/coaches whose style of play he wants to emulate, all while playing a MUCH WORSE schedule than either of them.


Again, I don’t want to say this. But when you take a look at how his team performs, and take into account whom they’ve been playing, how can you say Tom Crean is the right coach and say in the same breath your goal is to be elite (as Fred Glass did at the end of last season)? There is a direct correlation between how these team perform statistically and how they fare(d) in the NCAA Tournament.


Numbers don't lie. Tom Crean isn’t going to get us there, folks. The eye test in games like Duke, Michigan St, Syracuse in 2013, etc . . .gives an indication of that. The stats confirm it.
Wonder where they ranked against the other in the second half of the season. I would suspect much more competitive. In Zeller's second year they had a very good def efficiency rating and Crean's Wade team was very good defensively. To say Crean cannot teach defense is not the whole truth.
 
You keep crying for a better coach. Yes Coach Knight had something to do with IU no longer being and elite program. Sampson finished it off. When Crean took over IU was no longer and elite program. Coach Knight also spent his whole career telling the NCAA to shove up their you know what. They were waiting for the time to put it to us and they did for a very minor crime. Get your head out of the sand Hondo and you still havent named a coach better than CTC that would come here. By the way right now there is only one in the Bigten better.
 
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You keep crying for a better coach. Yes Coach Knight had something to do with IU no longer being and elite program. Sampson finished it off. When Crean took over IU was no longer and elite program. Coach Knight also spent his whole career telling the NCAA to shove up their you know what. They were waiting for the time to put it to us and they did for a very minor crime. Get your head out of the sand Hondo and you still havent named a coach better than CTC that would come here. By the way right now there is only one in the Bigten better.
The NCAA didn't hurt us that bad one lost scholarship and off campus recruiting restrictions. Considering we hired a guy that they warned us not to hire, it was a slap on the wrist

The problem with naming a coach, no matter who is named you will say they won't come...since neither of us truly knows it's a pointless task

But I like pointless:)

First call is obviously to Brad, but we've been down that road on this board...so anyway

Marshall has said he will only leave for a big job. IU is top five on the Forbes list...and his loyalty to Van Fleet and Baker is no longer an issue. WSU\Koch Bros can match our money, but they can't match our easier road to a title

Bennet turned us down once, but the guy asking was the same guy who fired his sister. The people involved in her tenure are all gone

Sean Miller took a long look at Maryland, why wouldn't he look at a school that pays more?


Mack has done better at X then TC has done at either of his stops

Now here's where you pretend to know what each of these coaches are thinking and tear IU down to build up TC
 
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You would really want Tony Bennet here. Thats laughable this fan base would tear Tony up. He has a very slim chance of getting to the final four. He will not get enough talent with his style of play. Sean Miller is okay nothing special he has run alot of talent thru Zona without great tournament sucess. Also neither one of them would come here. I heard IU reach out to Miller didnt even want to talk from a pretty good source. Chris Mack is the only coach that would possibly come here that maybe is better choice but I was really disapointed in his loss to Wisconsin. Was not a well coached game. Will find out how good Marshall is now. He is a jerk can he coached kids with bigger egos or is his to big. Did you forget that every player left after the sanctions. It was the most devasting sanctions over the last ten years.
 
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You would really want Tony Bennet here. Thats laughable this fan base would tear Tony up. He has a very slim chance of getting to the final four. He will not get enough talent with his style of play. Sean Miller is okay nothing special he has run alot of talent thru Zona without great tournament sucess. Also neither one of them would come here. I heard IU reach out to Miller didnt even want to talk from a pretty good source. Chris Mack is the only coach that would possibly come here that maybe is better choice but I was really disapointed in his loss to Wisconsin. Was not a well coached game. Will find out how good Marshall is now. He is a jerk can he coached kids with bigger egos or is his to big. Did you forget that every player left after the sanctions. It was the most devasting sanctions over the last ten years.
Thanks for doing exactly what I said you would do.

The players leaving wasn't an NCAA sanction that was them not wanting to play for IU/TC. Matta faced much worse punishments and kept his OSU team together. Some coaches can do it some cannot...TC tried

You tend to make things up...a lot
 
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IUINSB the proof is in the pudding there is no one knocking on our door. Why dont you critque my comments about the coaches. I was shocked Tony Bennet has he ever made it to final four.I thought that was the standard. Sean Miller has he made to the final four.
 
IUINSB the proof is in the pudding there is no one knocking on our door. Why dont you critque my comments about the coaches. I was shocked Tony Bennet has he ever made it to final four.I thought that was the standard. Sean Miller has he made to the final four.
Not one knocking on our door? Considering we aren't hiring that would make sense
 
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Shirts and skins your coaches were pretty easy to pick apart. But I will say you did pick the best ones possibly out there. Even if they did want to come I havent seen Miller and Bennets names in the final four. Isnt that the standard.
 
IUINSB the proof is in the pudding there is no one knocking on our door. Why dont you critque my comments about the coaches. I was shocked Tony Bennet has he ever made it to final four.I thought that was the standard. Sean Miller has he made to the final four.
Final four is the standard? I guess we should've kept MIke Davis...he went farther than TC...so by your logic MD is better than TC

The standard is consistency. Consistently in the top four of the conference, consistently a 3-4 seed or higher. If you do those things FFs will come.

off court..we want roster stability, few arrests if possible, good students etc

TC is capable of going to the FF at IU...as we are told every time he loses...it's about match ups. What TC hasn't shown, at IU or MU, is the ability to build on his good seasons.
 
IUINSB the proof is in the pudding there is no one knocking on our door. Why dont you critque my comments about the coaches. I was shocked Tony Bennet has he ever made it to final four.I thought that was the standard. Sean Miller has he made to the final four.

Well, you see. I don't know who wants to come and coach IU. I don't know who doesn't want to coach in Bloomington. And I don't really care.
You, or your source, on the other hand seem to know exactly what these coaches think about the IU job.
As an IU grad I follow IU and don't really care about other teams and their coaches.
I am just tired of hearing that no decent coach will come to IU because the fan base is insane (true, we are that). For $3,000,000 most would put up with a fan base composed entirely of English footbal hooligans.
 
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Shirts and skins your coaches were pretty easy to pick apart. But I will say you did pick the best ones possibly out there. Even if they did want to come I havent seen Miller and Bennets names in the final four. Isnt that the standard.
It's easy to pick apart most anything when you make stuff up and pretend they're facts...
 
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You would really want Tony Bennet here. Thats laughable this fan base would tear Tony up. He has a very slim chance of getting to the final four. He will not get enough talent with his style of play. Sean Miller is okay nothing special he has run alot of talent thru Zona without great tournament sucess. Also neither one of them would come here. I heard IU reach out to Miller didnt even want to talk from a pretty good source. Chris Mack is the only coach that would possibly come here that maybe is better choice but I was really disapointed in his loss to Wisconsin. Was not a well coached game. Will find out how good Marshall is now. He is a jerk can he coached kids with bigger egos or is his to big. Did you forget that every player left after the sanctions. It was the most devasting sanctions over the last ten years.
I wouldn't say that Miller has not had success in the tournament because I think he went to the elite 8 3 years in a row.
 
Sean millers 3 elite wouldnt be acceptable on this board. He has had greater talent too. Would you rather have consistent top fours or two big ten championships in last 4 yrs and one of the top teams to win it next year. If you are in such great touch with the program it was pretty common knowledge that coaches were not lined up for this job.
 
Sean millers 3 elite wouldnt be acceptable on this board. He has had greater talent too. Would you rather have consistent top fours or two big ten championships in last 4 yrs and one of the top teams to win it next year. If you are in such great touch with the program it was pretty common knowledge that coaches were not lined up for this job.

If you say it..it must be true

In your mind at least
 
My daddy always said if you are going to complain you better have a solution to make it better. And I havent seen one yet. Tony Bennet are you serious. Wow.
 
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okay, at least saying he's learning makes sense as hard as it is to swallow. the 3rd best team he's ever had did exactly what the 2nd best team he's ever had did and there were some bad years between. we can't say he's taking AP classes. :).

the best coaches in our league win conference titles and go deeeep in the NCAAs. We'll call it semantics then. He's at the bottom of the 1st tier, top of the 2nd? lol
OK.... if you say so . . . but I would add that he is trending up .
 
I notice your answers are getting shorter. That means your backed in corner with nothing to say. You lost your shirt your all skin now. By the way does ELITE AGAIN mean elite 8 i dont think so.
 
Thanks for doing exactly what I said you would do.

The players leaving wasn't an NCAA sanction that was them not wanting to play for IU/TC. Matta faced much worse punishments and kept his OSU team together. Some coaches can do it some cannot...TC tried

You tend to make things up...a lot
From what I recall, TC kicked at least a few of the players off the team himself. The reasons why don't really matter but it can be argued that he could've had more talent the first few years if he had wanted it and was willing to overlook things. But he wanted to clean up the program and that resulted in a quick gutting of the team.
 
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Well, you see. I don't know who wants to come and coach IU. I don't know who doesn't want to coach in Bloomington. And I don't really care.
You, or your source, on the other hand seem to know exactly what these coaches think about the IU job.
As an IU grad I follow IU and don't really care about other teams and their coaches.
I am just tired of hearing that no decent coach will come to IU because the fan base is insane (true, we are that). For $3,000,000 most would put up with a fan base composed entirely of English footbal hooligans.
Do you think ANY of the coaches of the teams you deem as being "elite" would come to IU for 3 million a year? If so, who?

And, as to your last sentence, what relevance does it have to the current discussion?
 
I notice your answers are getting shorter. That means your backed in corner with nothing to say. You lost your shirt your all skin now. By the way does ELITE AGAIN mean elite 8 i dont think so.
I'm done, like I said it was pointless. Like I also said, you would pretend to know more than you do...and you didn't disappoint
 
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From what I recall, TC kicked at least a few of the players off the team himself. The reasons why don't really matter but it can be argued that he could've had more talent the first few years if he had wanted it and was willing to overlook things. But he wanted to clean up the program and that resulted in a quick gutting of the team.
He kicked Thomas off. Ellis was offered a path to reinstatement and said no. Basset was asked to stay

Holman and Crawford were never kicked off the team


If you want to clean up a program you don't bring in Malik Story and Devsn Dumes
 
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Do you think ANY of the coaches of the teams you deem as being "elite" would come to IU for 3 million a year? If so, who?

And, as to your last sentence, what relevance does it have to the current discussion?
I gave a list...and I think we will pay more for the right guy
 
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Weak Skin im glad your not my attorney if i had murder charges against me. Next time think a little bit before you post. See ya
 
Please stop the bickering. I am sure the moderators will purge the thread if it continues.
 
You keep crying for a better coach. Yes Coach Knight had something to do with IU no longer being and elite program. Sampson finished it off. When Crean took over IU was no longer and elite program. Coach Knight also spent his whole career telling the NCAA to shove up their you know what. They were waiting for the time to put it to us and they did for a very minor crime. Get your head out of the sand Hondo and you still havent named a coach better than CTC that would come here. By the way right now there is only one in the Bigten better.

The NCAA "put it to" IU because they had an old grudge against Knight? That's nonsense. How about: A) IU hired a cheater and then let him continue cheating, and B) that cheater brought in staff and players with poor ethical and academic character. Of course, for all the fatalists around here, the aforementioned facts A and B just mean that IU wasn't lucky.

Knight, on the other hand, left IU with a staff and roster of players that won the B1G and went to a title game. Shortly thereafter IU had it's first losing season since Watson. Scott, please correct me if I'm wrong on the latter.

Furthermore, Bob Knight didn't "spend his whole career" telling the NCAA to shove anything anywhere. He did, however, spend his last six years at IU battling Doninger and a guy who had sights on fundamentally transforming collegiate athletics.
 
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The NCAA "put it to" IU because they had an old grudge against Knight? That's nonsense. How about: A) IU hired a cheater and then let him continue cheating, and B) that cheater brought in staff and players with poor ethical and academic character. Of course, for all the fatalists around here, the aforementioned facts A and B just mean that IU wasn't lucky.

Knight, on the other hand, left IU with a staff and roster of players that won the B1G and went to a title game. Shortly thereafter IU had it's first losing season since Watson. Scott, please correct me if I'm wrong on the latter.

Furthermore, Bob Knight didn't "spend his whole career" telling the NCAA to shove anything anywhere. He did, however, spend his last six years at IU battling Doninger and a guy who had sights on fundamentally transforming collegiate athletics.
Shhh he's dreaming don't wake him up
 
The NCAA "put it to" IU because they had an old grudge against Knight? That's nonsense. How about: A) IU hired a cheater and then let him continue cheating, and B) that cheater brought in staff and players with poor ethical and academic character. Of course, for all the fatalists around here, the aforementioned facts A and B just mean that IU wasn't lucky.

Knight, on the other hand, left IU with a staff and roster of players that won the B1G and went to a title game. Shortly thereafter IU had it's first losing season since Watson. Scott, please correct me if I'm wrong on the latter.

Furthermore, Bob Knight didn't "spend his whole career" telling the NCAA to shove anything anywhere. He did, however, spend his last six years at IU battling Doninger and a guy who had sights on fundamentally transforming collegiate athletics.
Ok...what is a "fatalist"? I have never heard that used in conjunction with IU basketball before.
 
Do you think ANY of the coaches of the teams you deem as being "elite" would come to IU for 3 million a year? If so, who?

And, as to your last sentence, what relevance does it have to the current discussion?

ORG, did you even read my post? I have never stated who I would want to coach at IU. If you had read the post you would have seen that I don't know who the so-calle ELITE coaches are nor do I care. I want a coach who wins with integrity. I am more than OK with the past season's results. Losing to UNC was no disgrace.

As to the last sentence: I have seen on here several times that the reason coaches would not want the IU job is because we have an insane fan base. True or not (probably true) most people would put up with it for $3 million a year.
 
nice job aggregating those stats... not often we get to see them all in one place... this is why CTC's seat is still a little warm... he earned himself the opportunity to finish out his current contract... imagine if he took a 10 point drop in offense efficiency but also raised his defensive efficiency by 20 points... and put IU in the top 75 strength of schedule... we just might get to see that team this coming year... I certainly hope so... good post....

The SOS has been improving. The key is to eliminate the 225+ schools. There are more premier games appearing on the schedule and that's good however, it'd be nice if there were better quality opponents in AH.

There was a significant improvement in defensive efficiency (please, for the love of God, don't make this THAT tired thread). The makings are there to continue that improvement but, I'd also suggest offensive efficiency will be effected with the replacement of Yogi.

This will be an exciting year and should prove to be a portal to the next level.
 
I really don't think Crean's seat is warm at all. He won the BIG. He's not going anywhere. Happy or sad about it, he's your man!

I'm actually happy for him. He showed a little growth this past season. If you don't think his seat is still a little warm... there's a reason he didn't get an extension after winning the B1G...
 
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I'm actually happy for him. He showed a little growth this past season. If you don't think his seat is still a little warm... there's a reason he didn't get an extension after winning the B1G...

There are a couple of reasons. First, there was no credible program looking at hiring him away. Second, he still has a lot of contract left.

The absence of an extension this year means nothing.
 
You would really want Tony Bennet here. Thats laughable this fan base would tear Tony up. He has a very slim chance of getting to the final four. He will not get enough talent with his style of play. Sean Miller is okay nothing special he has run alot of talent thru Zona without great tournament sucess. Also neither one of them would come here. I heard IU reach out to Miller didnt even want to talk from a pretty good source. Chris Mack is the only coach that would possibly come here that maybe is better choice but I was really disapointed in his loss to Wisconsin. Was not a well coached game. Will find out how good Marshall is now. He is a jerk can he coached kids with bigger egos or is his to big. Did you forget that every player left after the sanctions. It was the most devasting sanctions over the last ten years.
Wisconsin has been to 2 final 4's in the last 3 years and almost the elite 8 using many of the same principals that Bennett uses would agree the talent and the way they play is different from the current IU style but it is possible for him to make a final 4................ It is not like TC has been this final 4 machine with his style
 
I agree with most of what you said but I do question a couple of things, first ....loyalty

Many on this board are all in on shipping Priller out if we can bring someone better, and many people had no issue with pushing Roth out(he too came here when no one wanted to) some more want to pull the scholarship from Gelon and others want to tell Durham we changed our mind....my question is, why are we expected to be more loyal the guy who gets paid millions to be here and not to the players?

The no coach will come here if we mistreat a coach has been proven wrong time and again...see UK/UCLA for proof

What "many on this board" are all in on or okay with doesn't have anything to do with me. I've never said those things, and I think you've vastly overstated the support for pushing players out, for the sake of making your point. I've seen people criticize Crean about signing Priller, and Gelon and taking Durham's commit, but I haven't seen anyone suggest the other stuff you are talking about. I don't care for oversigning and transfers, but it is a fact of life in college basketball--and using the oversign to protect against it is an unfortunate consequence of the pervasiveness of transferring. The relationship between coach and fanbase isn't the same as the relationship between school and player. Although your premise, that you are expected to be loyal, is also false. I have no expectations for any other fan, except to be honest.

Did UK or UCLA fire a coach in the offseason after he won conference coach of the year, where there wasn't some other serious problem? I'm asking because I don't care to research it, not as a rhetorical question. My guess is that would be unprecedented.
 
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