Which B1G teams will underperform their ranking?

[Rags to Roses]

For this poll I've extended the ranking to include the "Others Receiving Votes" teams.

AP Top 25

It is almost a given that Franklin's PSU teams underperform.

Even with their defense, it is hard to see Michigan being a top ten team given their QB situation.

 

[TomEric4756]

For this poll I've extended the ranking to include the "Others Receiving Votes" teams.

AP Top 25

It is almost a given that Franklin's PSU teams underperform.

Even with their defense, it is hard to see Michigan being a top ten team given their QB situation.

Yes, Tuttle has a shot to start, as it appears that he knows the responsibilities of the position best.
Last year MI had 2 5th year SRs as starting WRs. This years WRs are young.

 

[76-1]

For this poll I've extended the ranking to include the "Others Receiving Votes" teams.

AP Top 25

It is almost a given that Franklin's PSU teams underperform.

Even with their defense, it is hard to see Michigan being a top ten team given their QB situation.

I'm thinking USC will struggle mightily with this years schedule and will finish well outside the Top 25...

2024 Football Schedule - USC Athletics

The official 2024 Football schedule for the University of Southern California Trojans

usctrojans.com

 

[Chriselli]

In a related question, what teams will be the most improved and/or underrated? My list (Indiana excluded) would be Nebraska and Wisconsin for most improved and Northwestern for underrated.

 

[IUNorth]

OSU, Penn State, Michigan, USC...will all likely underperform versus those rankings.

Many of the others will likely outperform their rankings, I'd say.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

For this poll I've extended the ranking to include the "Others Receiving Votes" teams.

AP Top 25

It is almost a given that Franklin's PSU teams underperform.

Even with their defense, it is hard to see Michigan being a top ten team given their QB situation.

I'd agree with the general consensus that Michigan and Washington are the most likely to 'underachieve'. As for Michigan, if Tuttle has a legit chance to start, what more do you have to know? Even if they were solid at QB, they'd be more like top 20 rather than top 10. They've just lost too much, and the new HC is unproven

Washington looks like a mess, although that coach probably gets it turned around in year 2. They do have a nice QB however, and solid talent. They could be anywhere from 5-7 & 7-5.

Others that look to underachieve relative to their assigned positions....UCLA. Lost their stud DC to USC, brand new unproven alum coach. Having to pay tax to Cal for going to the BT. Declining attendance and interest. Lots of travel. Just a lot of bad vibes there. They could finish in the bottom 3; Maryland--Still not sold on the HC. Offense will struggle losing a 4 year starting QB; MSU--They look like a bottom 3 BT team this year. So far the new HC is struggling with recruiting. The did bring in OSU's starting QB who is talented, so they're probably not #18. OSU & Oregon--I take North's point that it's pretty hard not to 'underachieve' when you're ranked #2 & #3....but these teams look legit to me. I think OSU finishes somewhere in the top 3, Oregon somewhere in the top 5.

Surprise teams---I like Nebraska to be border line top 25 at worst; Iowa--Very favorable schedule. Presently favored to win every game other than OSU. While it's almost impossible to actually win that many games in which you are favored, many by just a few points, without overwhelming talent ala OSU, they could just lose 2 and make the playoffs. Rutgers--Another team with a very favorable schedule. A team with a lot of dudes and solid coaching. The QB's a little scary (MN transfer) but only has to manage the game; Indiana--I've generally seen us picked 16th or 17th. I could see us at 12-14th pretty easily.

I see Illinois, Purdue and Minnesota as being somewhat competitive along with us & MD, with NW, MSU and UCLA in some order being the bottom 3.

 

[Rags to Roses]

I'd agree with the general consensus that Michigan and Washington are the most likely to 'underachieve'. As for Michigan, if Tuttle has a legit chance to start, what more do you have to know? Even if they were solid at QB, they'd be more like top 20 rather than top 10. They've just lost too much, and the new HC is unproven

Washington looks like a mess, although that coach probably gets it turned around in year 2. They do have a nice QB however, and solid talent. They could be anywhere from 5-7 & 7-5.

Others that look to underachieve relative to their assigned positions....UCLA. Lost their stud DC to USC, brand new unproven alum coach. Having to pay tax to Cal for going to the BT. Declining attendance and interest. Lots of travel. Just a lot of bad vibes there. They could finish in the bottom 3; Maryland--Still not sold on the HC. Offense will struggle losing a 4 year starting QB; MSU--They look like a bottom 3 BT team this year. So far the new HC is struggling with recruiting. The did bring in OSU's starting QB who is talented, so they're probably not #18. OSU & Oregon--I take North's point that it's pretty hard not to 'underachieve' when you're ranked #2 & #3....but these teams look legit to me. I think OSU finishes somewhere in the top 3, Oregon somewhere in the top 5.

Surprise teams---I like Nebraska to be border line top 25 at worst; Iowa--Very favorable schedule. Presently favored to win every game other than OSU. While it's almost impossible to actually win that many games in which you are favored, many by just a few points, without overwhelming talent ala OSU, they could just lose 2 and make the playoffs. Rutgers--Another team with a very favorable schedule. A team with a lot of dudes and solid coaching. The QB's a little scary (MN transfer) but only has to manage the game; Indiana--I've generally seen us picked 16th or 17th. I could see us at 12-14th pretty easily.

I see Illinois, Purdue and Minnesota as being somewhat competitive along with us & MD, with NW, MSU and UCLA in some order being the bottom 3.

Agree with many of your points.

UCLA could have a very bad year if the new HC & his staff don't click as their talent is average. Road game at Oregon. In a 3 game stretch they have to travel to Penn State and Rutgers which is brutal from a travel perspective. They play Iowa on a short week. Ugh.

If Nebraska's freshman QB is decent they could have a very good year. If he plays like a typical true freshman it could be a challenging year.

If Iowa's new OC can create some offense to go with their great defense they could have a great year as their schedule is manageable (they avoid Oregon & PSU). The thing that worries me is the very average QB transfer from Northwestern seems to be outplaying Cade McNamara.

Minnesota's toughest games are at home (Iowa, USC, PSU) so if they get some breaks they could do well.

Overall, B1G could be very top heavy (O$U, Oregon, PSU) with a scrum below that which provides a reasonable chance to finish in the second tier.

 

[vesuvius13]

Don't doubt what this coaching staff can do as IU will be better than many think.

 

[Big Red Crimson Buffalo]

I'd agree with the general consensus that Michigan and Washington are the most likely to 'underachieve'. As for Michigan, if Tuttle has a legit chance to start, what more do you have to know? Even if they were solid at QB, they'd be more like top 20 rather than top 10. They've just lost too much, and the new HC is unproven

Washington looks like a mess, although that coach probably gets it turned around in year 2. They do have a nice QB however, and solid talent. They could be anywhere from 5-7 & 7-5.

Others that look to underachieve relative to their assigned positions....UCLA. Lost their stud DC to USC, brand new unproven alum coach. Having to pay tax to Cal for going to the BT. Declining attendance and interest. Lots of travel. Just a lot of bad vibes there. They could finish in the bottom 3; Maryland--Still not sold on the HC. Offense will struggle losing a 4 year starting QB; MSU--They look like a bottom 3 BT team this year. So far the new HC is struggling with recruiting. The did bring in OSU's starting QB who is talented, so they're probably not #18. OSU & Oregon--I take North's point that it's pretty hard not to 'underachieve' when you're ranked #2 & #3....but these teams look legit to me. I think OSU finishes somewhere in the top 3, Oregon somewhere in the top 5.

Surprise teams---I like Nebraska to be border line top 25 at worst; Iowa--Very favorable schedule. Presently favored to win every game other than OSU. While it's almost impossible to actually win that many games in which you are favored, many by just a few points, without overwhelming talent ala OSU, they could just lose 2 and make the playoffs. Rutgers--Another team with a very favorable schedule. A team with a lot of dudes and solid coaching. The QB's a little scary (MN transfer) but only has to manage the game; Indiana--I've generally seen us picked 16th or 17th. I could see us at 12-14th pretty easily.

I see Illinois, Purdue and Minnesota as being somewhat competitive along with us & MD, with NW, MSU and UCLA in some order being the bottom 3.

I think the consensus has been that Alex Orji is penciled in as the starting QB at Michigan and was the #2 to McCarthy last year. Tuttle and Warren are likely battling it out to see who is #2.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

I think the consensus has been that Alex Orji is penciled in as the starting QB at Michigan and was the #2 to McCarthy last year. Tuttle and Warren are likely battling it out to see who is #2.

One would think.....but the latest is that Warren, a former walk-on, is getting some 1st team snaps. Reading between the lines Orji. who is viewed as the dual threat QB and is a RS Soph, must not be much of a passer.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

For this poll I've extended the ranking to include the "Others Receiving Votes" teams.

AP Top 25

It is almost a given that Franklin's PSU teams underperform.

Even with their defense, it is hard to see Michigan being a top ten team given their QB situation.

Looking through all the schedules, here's my guess as to how things play out in BT games only, with a few comments when necessary:

1. Oregon.........9-0......I think OSU is a little better, but the game between the two is at Oregon, and Dillon Gabriel is a little better than Will Howard. Wouldn't be shocked to see a rematch in the playoffs. The schedule is favorable. Wins: at UCLA; MSU; OSU; at Purdue; ILL; at MSU; MD; at Wisconsin; Washington.

2. OSU........8-1......Wins: at MSU; Iowa; NEB; at PSU; PUR; at NW; IU; Michigan. Loss: at Oregon.

3. PSU.........8-1......Wins: ILL; UCLA; at USC; at Wisconsin; Washington; at Purdue; at MN; Maryland. Loss: OSU. Obviously a much tougher 8-1, but they always beat the teams they should and lose to OSU, even at home.

4. IOWA.....8-1.....Wins: MN; Washington; at MSU; NW; Wisconsin; at UCLA; at MD; Nebraska. Loss: at OSU. Everything I hear is that their OL and TB are better than last year, and their Defense and STs are as good. Apparently Cade M. and the NW transfer are both struggling, but even so they are better than what they had last year. They could lose to either Wisconsin or Nebraska at home, but you know they won't.

5. USC......8-1...The NC schedule is a killer. They either get better quickly or go in the tank. Given this, I think Lincoln RIley coaches his ass off. I also think the former UCLA DC will make a huge difference. Obviously the game at Michigan will be very interesting, and they get a break catching Michigan early. Wins: at Michigan; Wisconsin; at MN; at Maryland; Nebraska; Rutgers; at Washington; at UCLA. Losses: PSU

6. Rutgers.....7-2....Really a very comfortable 7-2, as others have mentioned, because of the schedule. Wins: Wash; Wisconsin; UCLA; MN; Illinois; Maryland; at MSU. Losses: at Nebraska; at USC

7. Michigan....6-3....Wins: MN; at Washington; at Illinois; MSU; at IU; NW. Losses: USC; Oregon; at OSU.

8. Nebraska....6-3...Wins: at ILL; at Purdue; Rutgers; at IU; UCLA; Wisconsin. Losses: at OSU; at USC; at Iowa.

9. IU.....4-5.....Wins: MD; at NW; at MSU; Purdue. Losses: at UCLA; Nebraska; Washington; Michigan; at OSU. That Washington game looks big, as does the game at UCLA. We could easily win one of those and go 5-4.

10. Wisconsin....3-6...They'll probably upset someone and go 4-5 but their conference schedule is a tough one. Wins: Purdue; at NW; MN. Losses: at USC; at Rutgers; PSU; at Iowa; Oregon; at Nebraska.

11. Washington...3-6...Wins: NW; at IU; UCLA. Losses: at Rutgers; at Iowa; at OSU; at Oregon; USC; Michigan.

12. Purdue....2-7...Wins: NW; at Illinois. Losses: Nebraska; at MSU; at Wisconsin; Oregon; at OSU; PSU; at IU.

13. Minnesota....2-7....I think Minnesota will be a decent team. They have a tough conference schedule.
Wins: MD; at UCLA. Losses: Iowa; at ILL; at Michigan; USC; at Rutgers; PSU; at Wisconsin.

14. Maryland...2-7....This comes down to whether the HC is legit. There is talent, but they will underachieve. Wins: MSU; NW. Losses: at IU; USC; at MN; at Oregon; Rutgers; Iowa; at PSU.

15. Illinois.....2-7....I guess they should do better than this, but Purdue has their #, as does NW when they play at NW.. Wins: MSU; MN. Losses: at Nebraska; at PSU; Purdue; Michigan; at Oregon; at Rutgers; at NW

16. UCLA....1-8.....I hate to do this, but they do get us early, at their place. Wins: IU. Losses: Oregon; at PSU; at Rutgers; MN; at Nebraska; Iowa; at Washington; USC

17. Northwestern...1-8...Wins: Illinois Losses: At Washington; IU; at Maryland; Wisconsin; at Iowa; at Purdue; OSU; at Michigan.

18. MSU.....1-8 Wins: Purdue. Losses: at MD; OSU; at Oregon; Iowa; at Michigan; Indiana; at Illinois; Rutgers.

Edit: The most interesting games of the year OTHER than OSU at Oregon, Indiana centric:

--PSU at USC
--PSU at Wisconsin
--Wisconsin at Iowa
--Nebraska at Iowa
--USC at Michigan
--Wisconsin at Rutgers
--Rutgers at Nebraska
--Indiana at UCLA
--Indiana at Purdue
--Washington at Indiana
--Minnesota at Wisconsin