Legit Final Four Contenders

[IUNorth]

Kenpom offers a very clear glimpse at what it takes to be a Final Four team. I went back 10 years, and looked at all the Final Four teams final KenPom rankings. Here's what was very clear, nearly all of them...as in all but 1 I think...finished with.

1. Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
2. If you have one side of the ball that isn't top 20, you better be elite (top 5-10) in the other.

Previous years final KenPom rankings do include conference tournaments, and NCAA tournament games. So obviously the teams that do make the FF, will have a little bit of skewed numbers because of the extra games, and the fact that most of those extra games would be against really good teams, on neutral courts. So because of that, I'm going to change the criteria to teams that are Top 30 in both, or Top 50 in 1, top 10 in the other.

Here's the list.

Houston - 5,6 (O and D respectively)
UCLA - 24,2
Alabama - 20, 3
UConn - 10, 12
Tennessee - 48,1
Purdue - 11, 23
Texas - 16, 19
Kansas - 25, 9 (not as obvious a pick as most would say)
St Mary's - 42, 8
Creighton - 27, 10

Borderline teams...
Gonzaga - 1,74 (after their beat down on St Mary's last night...hard to say they couldn't make it. But history says with a defense that poor, its very unlikely)
Arizona - 6,52 (similar to above, they're obviously talented enough. But the defense will make it very tough on them to win 4 games in a row)
Marquette - 4,69 (same narrative as Gonzaga and Arizona)
Baylor - 2,90 (same)
SDSU - 43, 11 (offense likely not potent enough, and it'll end up biting them at some point)
Xavier - 7,84 (Same as others with bad defense)
Maryland - 32, 30 (could play their way close to top 20 in both with a good BTT, and a good NCAA run)
Texas A&M - 31, 36 (similar to Maryland)
Michigan State - 35,37 (similar to Maryland and MSU)

Indiana is sitting at 30 for offense, 45 for defense. If they were to play really well in both tournaments, they probably could push for top 20 in offensive efficency, but they're too far down on defense. Obviously anything is possible. But if you trust KenPom's metrics...it doesn't look goof for a FF run for the Hoosiers.

 

[mobilehoosier]

Kenpom offers a very clear glimpse at what it takes to be a Final Four team. I went back 10 years, and looked at all the Final Four teams final KenPom rankings. Here's what was very clear, nearly all of them...as in all but 1 I think...finished with.

1. Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
2. If you have one side of the ball that isn't top 20, you better be elite (top 5-10) in the other.

Previous years final KenPom rankings do include conference tournaments, and NCAA tournament games. So obviously the teams that do make the FF, will have a little bit of skewed numbers because of the extra games, and the fact that most of those extra games would be against really good teams, on neutral courts. So because of that, I'm going to change the criteria to teams that are Top 30 in both, or Top 50 in 1, top 10 in the other.

Here's the list.

Houston - 5,6 (O and D respectively)
UCLA - 24,2
Alabama - 20, 3
UConn - 10, 12
Tennessee - 48,1
Purdue - 11, 23
Texas - 16, 19
Kansas - 25, 9 (not as obvious a pick as most would say)
St Mary's - 42, 8
Creighton - 27, 10

Borderline teams...
Gonzaga - 1,74 (after their beat down on St Mary's last night...hard to say they couldn't make it. But history says with a defense that poor, its very unlikely)
Arizona - 6,52 (similar to above, they're obviously talented enough. But the defense will make it very tough on them to win 4 games in a row)
Marquette - 4,69 (same narrative as Gonzaga and Arizona)
Baylor - 2,90 (same)
SDSU - 43, 11 (offense likely not potent enough, and it'll end up biting them at some point)
Xavier - 7,84 (Same as others with bad defense)
Maryland - 32, 30 (could play their way close to top 20 in both with a good BTT, and a good NCAA run)
Texas A&M - 31, 36 (similar to Maryland)
Michigan State - 35,37 (similar to Maryland and MSU)

Indiana is sitting at 30 for offense, 45 for defense. If they were to play really well in both tournaments, they probably could push for top 20 in offensive efficency, but they're too far down on defense. Obviously anything is possible. But if you trust KenPom's metrics...it doesn't look goof for a FF run for the Hoosiers.

Painfully true. Go Hoosiers! Nice post.

 

[Chicago-bound Hoosier]

UConn appears to be a real threat for a F4 return. It's the tourney...all about the matchups. I would have said AZ but they have been bi-polar, and apparently it's due to some rather crappy defense.

Numbers and metrics are great, but all it takes is one guard to get hot for night, or one big man to get an early 3 fouls, and end the season for a team with better seasonal metrics.

 

[BusdriverE]

Can’t believe that Miller kid from Bama is allowed to play after his involvement with the shooting. Most colleges have a code of ethics that all students must abide by….. ah, I see the problem, “students”

 

[IUNorth]

UConn appears to be a real threat for a F4 return. It's the tourney...all about the matchups. I would have said AZ but they have been bi-polar, and apparently it's due to some rather crappy defense.

Numbers and metrics are great, but all it takes is one guard to get hot for night, or one big man to get an early 3 fouls, and end the season for a team with better seasonal metrics.

That is true...but it really hasn't happened in 10 years that way. The teams with the metrics I listed, evidently, always end up finding ways to win the games. I don't know what Purdue was the year Carson Edwards went nuclear...and the ending sure was borderline flukey against PU...but the team with the metrics did end up winning.
You have to either be really, really good on both sides of the ball. Or solid on one side, and virtually dominant on the other. Otherwise, at some point, you lose before the Final Four.

 

[rikki-tikka-tava]

Kenpom offers a very clear glimpse at what it takes to be a Final Four team. I went back 10 years, and looked at all the Final Four teams final KenPom rankings. Here's what was very clear, nearly all of them...as in all but 1 I think...finished with.

1. Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
2. If you have one side of the ball that isn't top 20, you better be elite (top 5-10) in the other.

Previous years final KenPom rankings do include conference tournaments, and NCAA tournament games. So obviously the teams that do make the FF, will have a little bit of skewed numbers because of the extra games, and the fact that most of those extra games would be against really good teams, on neutral courts. So because of that, I'm going to change the criteria to teams that are Top 30 in both, or Top 50 in 1, top 10 in the other.

Here's the list.

Houston - 5,6 (O and D respectively)
UCLA - 24,2
Alabama - 20, 3
UConn - 10, 12
Tennessee - 48,1
Purdue - 11, 23
Texas - 16, 19
Kansas - 25, 9 (not as obvious a pick as most would say)
St Mary's - 42, 8
Creighton - 27, 10

Borderline teams...
Gonzaga - 1,74 (after their beat down on St Mary's last night...hard to say they couldn't make it. But history says with a defense that poor, its very unlikely)
Arizona - 6,52 (similar to above, they're obviously talented enough. But the defense will make it very tough on them to win 4 games in a row)
Marquette - 4,69 (same narrative as Gonzaga and Arizona)
Baylor - 2,90 (same)
SDSU - 43, 11 (offense likely not potent enough, and it'll end up biting them at some point)
Xavier - 7,84 (Same as others with bad defense)
Maryland - 32, 30 (could play their way close to top 20 in both with a good BTT, and a good NCAA run)
Texas A&M - 31, 36 (similar to Maryland)
Michigan State - 35,37 (similar to Maryland and MSU)

Indiana is sitting at 30 for offense, 45 for defense. If they were to play really well in both tournaments, they probably could push for top 20 in offensive efficency, but they're too far down on defense. Obviously anything is possible. But if you trust KenPom's metrics...it doesn't look goof for a FF run for the Hoosiers.

Yep, absent XJ, IU's defense has been challenged this Season to jam opposing offenses in the way that many anticipated. Replacing Phinisee with Jalen hasn't been as painful as it might have been (especially with his greater if somewhat intermittent offensive production), but IU has dropped from being the 16th best defense at the end of last year to 50th. That costs points on offense as well - IU just isn't getting as many opportunities to push pace on offense from missed shots besides the fact that no one on the Team can push the ball upcourt nearly as fast as XJ.

Amazing that so many posters are so dense that they don't recognize, understand or acknowledge what a loss Xavier represented for this Team's prospects/performance. IU spends all pre-Season working on an offense primarily designed to go through the starting PG, and to anchor a defense (along with TJD) aimed at perimeter ball pressure and denial of penetration/entry passes only to have it wrecked on the eve of Conference play by injury. Expecting a freshman shooting guard to assume X's role was a reach at best, and the fact that it's worked as well as it has is a tribute to Woodson and Co. as well as the Players.

 

[bawlmer]

Kenpom offers a very clear glimpse at what it takes to be a Final Four team. I went back 10 years, and looked at all the Final Four teams final KenPom rankings. Here's what was very clear, nearly all of them...as in all but 1 I think...finished with.

1. Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
2. If you have one side of the ball that isn't top 20, you better be elite (top 5-10) in the other.

Previous years final KenPom rankings do include conference tournaments, and NCAA tournament games. So obviously the teams that do make the FF, will have a little bit of skewed numbers because of the extra games, and the fact that most of those extra games would be against really good teams, on neutral courts. So because of that, I'm going to change the criteria to teams that are Top 30 in both, or Top 50 in 1, top 10 in the other.

Here's the list.

Houston - 5,6 (O and D respectively)
UCLA - 24,2
Alabama - 20, 3
UConn - 10, 12
Tennessee - 48,1
Purdue - 11, 23
Texas - 16, 19
Kansas - 25, 9 (not as obvious a pick as most would say)
St Mary's - 42, 8
Creighton - 27, 10

Borderline teams...
Gonzaga - 1,74 (after their beat down on St Mary's last night...hard to say they couldn't make it. But history says with a defense that poor, its very unlikely)
Arizona - 6,52 (similar to above, they're obviously talented enough. But the defense will make it very tough on them to win 4 games in a row)
Marquette - 4,69 (same narrative as Gonzaga and Arizona)
Baylor - 2,90 (same)
SDSU - 43, 11 (offense likely not potent enough, and it'll end up biting them at some point)
Xavier - 7,84 (Same as others with bad defense)
Maryland - 32, 30 (could play their way close to top 20 in both with a good BTT, and a good NCAA run)
Texas A&M - 31, 36 (similar to Maryland)
Michigan State - 35,37 (similar to Maryland and MSU)

Indiana is sitting at 30 for offense, 45 for defense. If they were to play really well in both tournaments, they probably could push for top 20 in offensive efficency, but they're too far down on defense. Obviously anything is possible. But if you trust KenPom's metrics...it doesn't look goof for a FF run for the Hoosiers.

Post of the week. The numbers don't lie, we're too inconsistent for a deep run. We struggle to play a solid 40 minutes. But we have a legit shot at the BTT. That would be something the seniors could hang their hat on.

 

[IUNorth]

Yep, absent XJ, IU's defense has been challenged this Season to jam opposing offenses in the way that many anticipated. Replacing Phinisee with Jalen hasn't been as painful as it might have been (especially with his greater if somewhat intermittent offensive production), but IU has dropped from being the 16th best defense at the end of last year to 50th. That costs points on offense as well - IU just isn't getting as many opportunities to push pace on offense from missed shots besides the fact that no one on the Team can push the ball upcourt nearly as fast as XJ.

Amazing that so many posters are so dense that they don't recognize, understand or acknowledge what a loss Xavier represented for this Team's prospects/performance. IU spends all pre-Season working on an offense primarily designed to go through the starting PG, and to anchor a defense (along with TJD) aimed at perimeter ball pressure and denial of penetration/entry passes only to have it wrecked on the eve of Conference play by injury. Expecting a freshman shooting guard to assume X's role was a reach at best, and the fact that it's worked as well as it has is a tribute to Woodson and Co. as well as the Players.

Yep...its why I was so bummed when the final announcement came out that he was done this year. With him, even if he was limited to only 15-20 effective "X like" minutes a game...but with those minutes, I think we'd fairly dramatically improve our defensive efficiency rating, which would improve our offensive efficiency rating too, in all likelihood. Sitting at 20 and 30 respectively gives us a MUCH more legit shot at winning 4 in a row. Without him, I just don't trust that we'll be able to defend well enough, 4 games in a row, to get to Houston...regardless of the draw or matchups.

And before anyone says it, I know, anyone can get hot, you have to play the games, these metrics aren't the end all/be all. There's always the possibility that someone outside these parameters will get hot, and break the mold. IU could be that team if someone does. But when well over 90% of teams that achieve something, over a 10 year span, fit certain criteria...stands to reason it'll happen again this year.

 

[IUHoopster]

Yep...its why I was so bummed when the final announcement came out that he was done this year. With him, even if he was limited to only 15-20 effective "X like" minutes a game...but with those minutes, I think we'd fairly dramatically improve our defensive efficiency rating, which would improve our offensive efficiency rating too, in all likelihood. Sitting at 20 and 30 respectively gives us a MUCH more legit shot at winning 4 in a row. Without him, I just don't trust that we'll be able to defend well enough, 4 games in a row, to get to Houston...regardless of the draw or matchups.

And before anyone says it, I know, anyone can get hot, you have to play the games, these metrics aren't the end all/be all. There's always the possibility that someone outside these parameters will get hot, and break the mold. IU could be that team if someone does. But when well over 90% of teams that achieve something, over a 10 year span, fit certain criteria...stands to reason it'll happen again this year.

Anyone can but that’s what they call a long shot…like the guy who picked the two superbowl teams and then bet each to win. Possible but not probable

 

[MIS01]

Can’t believe that Miller kid from Bama is allowed to play after his involvement with the shooting. Most colleges have a code of ethics that all students must abide by….. ah, I see the problem, “students”

From what I have seen, the only thing he is guilty of is giving a ride to a teammate who had a gun that he (Miller) was not aware was in his car. BTW, the SEC coaches were so upset about the situation, they named him SEC POY.

 

[WiskyHoosier]

From what I have seen, the only thing he is guilty of is giving a ride to a teammate who had a gun that he (Miller) was not aware was in his car. BTW, the SEC coaches were so upset about the situation, they named him SEC POY.

And others so upset about it that he doesn't appear on the Wooden list

 

[outside shooter]

Can’t believe that Miller kid from Bama is allowed to play after his involvement with the shooting. Most colleges have a code of ethics that all students must abide by….. ah, I see the problem, “students”

Kinda funny that you put "Bama" and "ethics" in consecutive sentences.

Replace "Bama" with ANY SEC team...

 

[Harry Hondo]

Kenpom offers a very clear glimpse at what it takes to be a Final Four team. I went back 10 years, and looked at all the Final Four teams final KenPom rankings. Here's what was very clear, nearly all of them...as in all but 1 I think...finished with.

1. Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
2. If you have one side of the ball that isn't top 20, you better be elite (top 5-10) in the other.

Previous years final KenPom rankings do include conference tournaments, and NCAA tournament games. So obviously the teams that do make the FF, will have a little bit of skewed numbers because of the extra games, and the fact that most of those extra games would be against really good teams, on neutral courts. So because of that, I'm going to change the criteria to teams that are Top 30 in both, or Top 50 in 1, top 10 in the other.

Here's the list.

Houston - 5,6 (O and D respectively)
UCLA - 24,2
Alabama - 20, 3
UConn - 10, 12
Tennessee - 48,1
Purdue - 11, 23
Texas - 16, 19
Kansas - 25, 9 (not as obvious a pick as most would say)
St Mary's - 42, 8
Creighton - 27, 10

Borderline teams...
Gonzaga - 1,74 (after their beat down on St Mary's last night...hard to say they couldn't make it. But history says with a defense that poor, its very unlikely)
Arizona - 6,52 (similar to above, they're obviously talented enough. But the defense will make it very tough on them to win 4 games in a row)
Marquette - 4,69 (same narrative as Gonzaga and Arizona)
Baylor - 2,90 (same)
SDSU - 43, 11 (offense likely not potent enough, and it'll end up biting them at some point)
Xavier - 7,84 (Same as others with bad defense)
Maryland - 32, 30 (could play their way close to top 20 in both with a good BTT, and a good NCAA run)
Texas A&M - 31, 36 (similar to Maryland)
Michigan State - 35,37 (similar to Maryland and MSU)

Indiana is sitting at 30 for offense, 45 for defense. If they were to play really well in both tournaments, they probably could push for top 20 in offensive efficency, but they're too far down on defense. Obviously anything is possible. But if you trust KenPom's metrics...it doesn't look goof for a FF run for the Hoosiers.

Interesting that IU has stronger offensive numbers, because coming into this season everyone thought that this group had the potential of being one of the best defensive teams IU has ever had. Obviously, losing X and the injury to Race had a lot to do with this, too. At least Race is back strong, which was evident in the recent win over Michigan.

 

[Middawg]

This season is like the wild wild west with no great teams so to me that's a huge discount to the historical track record.

Thinking teams with a heavy tilt of 4,5,,6 year players will up their games this tourney with some great bball as the tourney moves along.

 

[IUNorth]

Interesting that IU has stronger offensive numbers, because coming into this season everyone thought that this group had the potential of being one of the best defensive teams IU has ever had. Obviously, losing X and the injury to Race had a lot to do with this, too. At least Race is back strong, which was evident in the recent win over Michigan.

I don't have a membership to KenPom...not sure if a membership has the ability to see where a team ranked on a specific day...but I'm pretty sure we were a very highly efficient defensive team before X and Race went down. I remember the Xavier game dropping our defensive efficiency a little bit, but it still being very high. I don't think there's a valid argument against us being a top 20 or so defense with X in the lineup all year. And again, referencing against the staggering majority of FF teams in the last 10 years...we'd have been looking at top 20 or so on both sides of the ball...which would have made us a legit FF contender this year.

 

[IUNorth]

This season is like the wild wild west with no great teams so to me that's a huge discount to the historical track record.

Thinking teams with a heavy tilt of 4,5,,6 year players will up their games this tourney with some great bball as the tourney moves along.

That could end up being true. Not sure the parity is a lot different than the last few years, but you could be right. History could end up showing that this year started a new trend of "hot" teams breaking through more regularly and making FF's despite not being good on one side of the ball throughout the season.

Until it happens though...color me skeptical.

 

[Eurocyldon]

I agree you have to play well on both ends but there are other considerations.

Matchup matters. IU matches up well with some teams and not others. I'd rather they play purdue than Iowa because Iowa is quicker at every position. Purdue is more methodical.

Using the list provided, TN looks like a legit contender but they can't match up with uk. You can find more examples of the same.

Location of the game also matters. I like IU playing in front of a partisan crowd anywhere near home over playing a Pac 10 team out west.

 

[rocketo]

Kenpom offers a very clear glimpse at what it takes to be a Final Four team. I went back 10 years, and looked at all the Final Four teams final KenPom rankings. Here's what was very clear, nearly all of them...as in all but 1 I think...finished with.

1. Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
2. If you have one side of the ball that isn't top 20, you better be elite (top 5-10) in the other.

Previous years final KenPom rankings do include conference tournaments, and NCAA tournament games. So obviously the teams that do make the FF, will have a little bit of skewed numbers because of the extra games, and the fact that most of those extra games would be against really good teams, on neutral courts. So because of that, I'm going to change the criteria to teams that are Top 30 in both, or Top 50 in 1, top 10 in the other.

Here's the list.

Houston - 5,6 (O and D respectively)
UCLA - 24,2
Alabama - 20, 3
UConn - 10, 12
Tennessee - 48,1
Purdue - 11, 23
Texas - 16, 19
Kansas - 25, 9 (not as obvious a pick as most would say)
St Mary's - 42, 8
Creighton - 27, 10

Borderline teams...
Gonzaga - 1,74 (after their beat down on St Mary's last night...hard to say they couldn't make it. But history says with a defense that poor, its very unlikely)
Arizona - 6,52 (similar to above, they're obviously talented enough. But the defense will make it very tough on them to win 4 games in a row)
Marquette - 4,69 (same narrative as Gonzaga and Arizona)
Baylor - 2,90 (same)
SDSU - 43, 11 (offense likely not potent enough, and it'll end up biting them at some point)
Xavier - 7,84 (Same as others with bad defense)
Maryland - 32, 30 (could play their way close to top 20 in both with a good BTT, and a good NCAA run)
Texas A&M - 31, 36 (similar to Maryland)
Michigan State - 35,37 (similar to Maryland and MSU)

Indiana is sitting at 30 for offense, 45 for defense. If they were to play really well in both tournaments, they probably could push for top 20 in offensive efficency, but they're too far down on defense. Obviously anything is possible. But if you trust KenPom's metrics...it doesn't look goof for a FF run for the Hoosiers.

I think the chances are slim for a FF run. But here’s to cheering this team on! They have earned our support!

 

[twenty02]

Final Four has never been an expectation of this team, even coming into the season. I'd be happy if they can make it to the 2nd week.

But with the right matchups, anything is possible....(that cuts both ways, though... including losing the first game)

 

[Paterfamilias]

Kenpom offers a very clear glimpse at what it takes to be a Final Four team. I went back 10 years, and looked at all the Final Four teams final KenPom rankings. Here's what was very clear, nearly all of them...as in all but 1 I think...finished with.

1. Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
2. If you have one side of the ball that isn't top 20, you better be elite (top 5-10) in the other.

Previous years final KenPom rankings do include conference tournaments, and NCAA tournament games. So obviously the teams that do make the FF, will have a little bit of skewed numbers because of the extra games, and the fact that most of those extra games would be against really good teams, on neutral courts. So because of that, I'm going to change the criteria to teams that are Top 30 in both, or Top 50 in 1, top 10 in the other.

Here's the list.

Houston - 5,6 (O and D respectively)
UCLA - 24,2
Alabama - 20, 3
UConn - 10, 12
Tennessee - 48,1
Purdue - 11, 23
Texas - 16, 19
Kansas - 25, 9 (not as obvious a pick as most would say)
St Mary's - 42, 8
Creighton - 27, 10

Borderline teams...
Gonzaga - 1,74 (after their beat down on St Mary's last night...hard to say they couldn't make it. But history says with a defense that poor, its very unlikely)
Arizona - 6,52 (similar to above, they're obviously talented enough. But the defense will make it very tough on them to win 4 games in a row)
Marquette - 4,69 (same narrative as Gonzaga and Arizona)
Baylor - 2,90 (same)
SDSU - 43, 11 (offense likely not potent enough, and it'll end up biting them at some point)
Xavier - 7,84 (Same as others with bad defense)
Maryland - 32, 30 (could play their way close to top 20 in both with a good BTT, and a good NCAA run)
Texas A&M - 31, 36 (similar to Maryland)
Michigan State - 35,37 (similar to Maryland and MSU)

Indiana is sitting at 30 for offense, 45 for defense. If they were to play really well in both tournaments, they probably could push for top 20 in offensive efficency, but they're too far down on defense. Obviously anything is possible. But if you trust KenPom's metrics...it doesn't look goof for a FF run for the Hoosiers.

The ray of sunshine for IU is that for a lot of games IU would fit the criteria. The Hoosiers almost never play like the #45 defense. About half the time IU's defense plays like a Top 10-15 D, but the rest of the time they play like the #125 defense. The IU D is very matchup dependent (it seems), so as long as we don't bump into the wrong kind of team we're good. Hopefully they sort out how they defend those bad matchup teams, but they haven't figured it out yet.

 

[Willdog7]

Kenpom offers a very clear glimpse at what it takes to be a Final Four team. I went back 10 years, and looked at all the Final Four teams final KenPom rankings. Here's what was very clear, nearly all of them...as in all but 1 I think...finished with.

1. Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
2. If you have one side of the ball that isn't top 20, you better be elite (top 5-10) in the other.

Previous years final KenPom rankings do include conference tournaments, and NCAA tournament games. So obviously the teams that do make the FF, will have a little bit of skewed numbers because of the extra games, and the fact that most of those extra games would be against really good teams, on neutral courts. So because of that, I'm going to change the criteria to teams that are Top 30 in both, or Top 50 in 1, top 10 in the other.

Here's the list.

Houston - 5,6 (O and D respectively)
UCLA - 24,2
Alabama - 20, 3
UConn - 10, 12
Tennessee - 48,1
Purdue - 11, 23
Texas - 16, 19
Kansas - 25, 9 (not as obvious a pick as most would say)
St Mary's - 42, 8
Creighton - 27, 10

Borderline teams...
Gonzaga - 1,74 (after their beat down on St Mary's last night...hard to say they couldn't make it. But history says with a defense that poor, its very unlikely)
Arizona - 6,52 (similar to above, they're obviously talented enough. But the defense will make it very tough on them to win 4 games in a row)
Marquette - 4,69 (same narrative as Gonzaga and Arizona)
Baylor - 2,90 (same)
SDSU - 43, 11 (offense likely not potent enough, and it'll end up biting them at some point)
Xavier - 7,84 (Same as others with bad defense)
Maryland - 32, 30 (could play their way close to top 20 in both with a good BTT, and a good NCAA run)
Texas A&M - 31, 36 (similar to Maryland)
Michigan State - 35,37 (similar to Maryland and MSU)

Indiana is sitting at 30 for offense, 45 for defense. If they were to play really well in both tournaments, they probably could push for top 20 in offensive efficency, but they're too far down on defense. Obviously anything is possible. But if you trust KenPom's metrics...it doesn't look goof for a FF run for the Hoosiers.

I don't believe in Kenpom. GO Hoosiers

 

[BcBranimal]

Kenpom offers a very clear glimpse at what it takes to be a Final Four team. I went back 10 years, and looked at all the Final Four teams final KenPom rankings. Here's what was very clear, nearly all of them...as in all but 1 I think...finished with.

1. Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
2. If you have one side of the ball that isn't top 20, you better be elite (top 5-10) in the other.

Previous years final KenPom rankings do include conference tournaments, and NCAA tournament games. So obviously the teams that do make the FF, will have a little bit of skewed numbers because of the extra games, and the fact that most of those extra games would be against really good teams, on neutral courts. So because of that, I'm going to change the criteria to teams that are Top 30 in both, or Top 50 in 1, top 10 in the other.

Here's the list.

Houston - 5,6 (O and D respectively)
UCLA - 24,2
Alabama - 20, 3
UConn - 10, 12
Tennessee - 48,1
Purdue - 11, 23
Texas - 16, 19
Kansas - 25, 9 (not as obvious a pick as most would say)
St Mary's - 42, 8
Creighton - 27, 10

Borderline teams...
Gonzaga - 1,74 (after their beat down on St Mary's last night...hard to say they couldn't make it. But history says with a defense that poor, its very unlikely)
Arizona - 6,52 (similar to above, they're obviously talented enough. But the defense will make it very tough on them to win 4 games in a row)
Marquette - 4,69 (same narrative as Gonzaga and Arizona)
Baylor - 2,90 (same)
SDSU - 43, 11 (offense likely not potent enough, and it'll end up biting them at some point)
Xavier - 7,84 (Same as others with bad defense)
Maryland - 32, 30 (could play their way close to top 20 in both with a good BTT, and a good NCAA run)
Texas A&M - 31, 36 (similar to Maryland)
Michigan State - 35,37 (similar to Maryland and MSU)

Indiana is sitting at 30 for offense, 45 for defense. If they were to play really well in both tournaments, they probably could push for top 20 in offensive efficency, but they're too far down on defense. Obviously anything is possible. But if you trust KenPom's metrics...it doesn't look goof for a FF run for the Hoosiers.

Good stuff...thanks for the effort to pull that together. This is why I come to this message board!

 

[Coach Geez]

I don't have a membership to KenPom...not sure if a membership has the ability to see where a team ranked on a specific day...but I'm pretty sure we were a very highly efficient defensive team before X and Race went down.

Don't have one either but believe we were 10th after the UNC game and the highest we got all year.

 

[bawlmer]

Don't have one either but believe we were 10th after the UNC game and the highest we got all year.

I'm on Kenpom and have not seen any feature to see seasonal stats at particular points in time. It would be really useful.

 

[dbmhoosier]

The kiss of death.

 

[Willdog7]

The kiss of death.

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GO HOOSIERS

 

[13thman]

The kiss of death.

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That's a homer pick. Stephen A Smith = Knicks fan. Do the math.

 

[dbmhoosier]

That's a homer pick. Stephen A Smith = Knicks fan. Do the math.

I know. He wanted Woody over Phil Jackson.

 

[82hoosier]

Can’t believe that Miller kid from Bama is allowed to play after his involvement with the shooting. Most colleges have a code of ethics that all students must abide by….. ah, I see the problem, “students”

It's Alabama.

 

[stollcpa]

UConn appears to be a real threat for a F4 return. It's the tourney...all about the matchups. I would have said AZ but they have been bi-polar, and apparently it's due to some rather crappy defense.

Numbers and metrics are great, but all it takes is one guard to get hot for night, or one big man to get an early 3 fouls, and end the season for a team with better seasonal metrics.

You nailed UCon

 

[Chicago-bound Hoosier]

You nailed UCon

Wasn’t hard. They’ve been on fire for 2 months.