I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that IU would have lost to those teams under Lynch. At the same time, IU has had multiple losses to MAC teams under Wilson, and several close calls with other very modest opponents on the schedule, which hasn't been significantly upgraded. The simple fact is that the results haven't improved in spite of the supposed elevation of talent.
What better wins did Lynch have outside of his first year?
Sure, some bad losses in year one under Wilson. While there have been some losses to MAC teams and Navy after year one, those teams were all 8 or 9 win bowl teams, and we lost those games by and an average of 3 points. The one time Lynch played a MAC team of that quality, we lost by 22.
Overall, while both Lynch and Wilson had inconsistent results, with a many bad performances, the best performances have been much, much better under Wilson - better wins and more frequent close calls against high caliber teams.