What Life Changes Might We See When Things Get Back To Normal?

Discussion in 'Andy's Off Topic Forum' started by Crossblock, Jun 25, 2020.

  1. Crossblock

    Crossblock Sophomore
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    I have been thinking about some changes we may see in Lifestyle once we are Beyond the COVID Restrictions and Back Closer to a Normal Situation. Let me give an example.

    Over the past 25 Years Parents have been guillted and extorted into enrolling and paying to have their Children enrolled in every activity available. My God, if your Child isn't in the Correct Organized Soccer or Basketball League by the time they are 6, they will never get into the College of their choice unless they can include that on their Application. As a result, they have become Taxi Driving Slaves to their Kids, spending 3 or 4 Hours per day in some cases transporting to and from Practice and games, and watching the activities.

    This Fall, many of these activities will be suspended and kids will attend School and be Home. Parents may discover that their Child can survive quite nicely with a more limited activity schedule, and might restrict the number of activities once things re-open.

    As a result of this Lifestyle many families are eating on the run in the Car from the fast food window. With more time at home, parents may discover they can cook and enjoy meals at home with family and do so so more cheaply. Consequently, sales of fast food may decrease with less activity.

    Parents may discover that they now have "me time" and can take up a Social or Recreational Activity of their Choice. I was thinking back to my family as I grew up. My Dad played some Golf. On Tuesday Nights he played in a 9 Hole twilight League. He didn't get home until 8:30 or 9:00 P.m. Nobody died and the world didn't end. On Sundays when he wasn't working he played 9 Holes of Golf with a standing Group of 20 guys who had a block of standing tee times at a local Golf Course. He was usually home by Noon.

    I had an Uncle who bowled one or 2 Nights Week in an Organized Bowling League. That was his "me Time".

    Any thoughts or ideas about this or other lifestyle changes will be appreciated.
     
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  2. bshields

    bshields Junior
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    Apparently there will be a lot more proper nouns requiring capitalization than there were pre-Covid.
     
  3. GeddyHoosier

    GeddyHoosier Junior
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    Social distancing is here to stay. The handshake becomes extinct. I think youth sports will resume and eventually get close to pre-Covid levels.
     
  4. iubud

    iubud Hall of Famer
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    Kids will discover old pastimes like "kick the can" and all the fun things you can do with a stick.
     
  5. McNutt76

    McNutt76 Hall of Famer
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    I think it's going to have a negative impact on office equipment sales reps like me. It's a good thing I will be 67 on July 6th. My plan was to work full-time at least another year, but outside sales people like me may become a thing of the past. I certainly hope not because I thoroughly enjoy going out and calling on prospective customers and customers instead of sitting in the office in front of a computer.
     
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  6. All4You

    All4You Freshman
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    Not to be a Debby Downer, but I think things are going to be much different.

    For one, things that were already looking to change in the next decade or so will be accelerated, or at least offered far more often. Distance and E-learning, telecommuting for work, virtual meetings/doctor appointments/group and individual counseling, front desk/counter/checkout personnel being replaced self ordering kiosks and checkouts, first run movies being available on streaming services, auto sales, e-shopping for things like groceries, stores that have their own personal shoppers and curbside pickups, third party services offering the same along with delivery were all here and expansion was already in the pipeline, but now will have their timelines moved up.

    I think cruises, public transportation, air travel, large events such as sports and entertainment, county and state fairs, movie theaters and the like will look much different. Freedom of movement in doctor's office complexes, hospitals, LTC and assisted living facilities, schools, and other high risk buildings will also be different. Buffets and cafeteria style dining, self serve food, drink and condiment stations may go away. Of the few mom and pop businesses that do remain and already operating on much more thin margins and budgets than the big box and/or chain stores, they will likely find themselves unable to adjust to the abrupt changes in consumer habits (restaurants, bars, variety stores, consignment shops, thrift stores, flea markets to name a few) and will either adapt or succumb.
     
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  7. sglowrider

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    Old past time? Is that par for course in Washington?
     
  8. birdforbogey

    birdforbogey Junior
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    Do you really think things will get back to normal?
     
  9. iubud

    iubud Hall of Famer
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    Washington? Please explain.
     
  10. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    kick the can... down the road.
     
  11. BCCHoosier

    BCCHoosier Senior
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    Agree with you. I think of all the high paying pharma sales rep jobs. Those will likely be cut significantly as we go forward.
     
  12. Cream&Crimson

    Cream&Crimson All-American
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    Personally, I hope this spells the end of the cruise ship industry as we've known it. I was in Santorini, Greece Summer before last. The cruise ships had ruined that place. It was ridiculous. The roads were all literally jammed with busses toting all those tens of thousands of cruisers around the island, and you couldn't get in a restaurant to save yourself. As beautiful as it was, I just wanted to go back to Paros where I had chilled for a few days prior.

    I read an article last week on CNN about Santorini during the lockdown, and I wish I could sneak back over there for a few days and take it in without the tens of thousands of daily cruise-ship tourists overloading the place. Because it truly is one of the most spectacular locations I've ever been.

    My son studied in culinary school back 15 years or so ago on Maui. He was back there last year for a short-term consulting gig, and he talks about how much the island has changed since he lived there before. He said there are over 1M more tourists/year that go there now than there were when he lived there just over a decade ago. He said you can't go anywhere now and experience the sense of isolation and calm you could before. Now with geo-location, cruise ship tourists hit the island and start looking for geo-tagged locations they've seen on IG, which according to him, in many cases are places that casual tourists should have no right to even know about. And all they do is complain because there isn't parking and a nice paved walkway to get to that blowhole or, waterfall, or whatever else it is. He said he probably wouldn't go back, and he had really developed a love for Maui after having lived there for 6 years before.

    You couldn't pay me to get on one of those gigantic cruise ships now.
     
    12 Cream&Crimson, Jun 26, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2020
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  13. Cavanagh

    Cavanagh All-Big Ten
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    My neighbor, worked with you, maybe even over you years ago. He was a rep just like you for another company and got laid off in March. He is 57 and might not go back in to the field. He signed an awful non compete. Saying he wouldn't work for anyone else for 12 months no matter if fired or quit. Ive never seen a non compete like that.
     
  14. McNutt76

    McNutt76 Hall of Famer
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    Would you mind sharing with me the name of your neighbor? If you prefer to keep it private, please feel free to email me at gnawbone@sbcglobal.net
     
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  15. hookyIU1990

    hookyIU1990 Senior
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    Those are hard to enforce in Indiana, especially if he's been in that industry for a while. The best the former employer can usually do is keep him out of customers and anyone that was in his pipeline over the last 12 months.
     
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  16. Cavanagh

    Cavanagh All-Big Ten
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    I told him it would have a hard time holding up, even if they tried to act on it. Will be interesting to see if he wants to get back in the industry at all.
     
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  17. i'vegotwinners

    i'vegotwinners All-American
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    i know a good solution for that.
     
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  18. hookyIU1990

    hookyIU1990 Senior
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    I've been on both sides of it, but the employer side for the most part. We send a copy of the signed non-compete and a list of clients and prospects that we consider off limits with all the other exit paperwork. If we're firing a guy, it usually not a concern because it was likely performance related. If it's a producer, the pucker factor is higher.
     
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  19. i'vegotwinners

    i'vegotwinners All-American
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  20. All4You

    All4You Freshman
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    Yeah, it wouldn't hurt my feelings whatsoever to see cruise ship industry take a permanent header. We have done some travelling, the wife and I, and she has always had these romantic fantasies about cruises in general (I blame the movie, or as Bill Burr puts it, the horror film, Titanic). I've told her before, I have no interest in spending a week or more of my life living in a closet, packed into floating petri dish with 3000 plus people with my only escape being ports of call, which will also be visited by the 3000 plus people and other tourists. I told her pick a spot and will we set out our own itinerary.
     
  21. Cream&Crimson

    Cream&Crimson All-American
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    That's the way to do it: Pick out a remote place, find the best direct flight to get you close, arrange the regional transit to get you there, then profit. This is the right equation to the perfect vacation.
     
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  22. kraft cheese+macaroni

    kraft cheese+macaroni All-American
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    Some really good thoughts to contemplate here.
     
  23. kraft cheese+macaroni

    kraft cheese+macaroni All-American
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    Thoughts and prayers for your mental anguish.
     
  24. bshields

    bshields Junior
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    It was meant as a joke, not as some type of grammar police. Just thought it was sort of funny how many random words were capitalized. No mental anguish, quite the opposite actually. Sorry for any mental anguish my post caused though.
     
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  25. kraft cheese+macaroni

    kraft cheese+macaroni All-American
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    All good. I was ‘in a place’ when I responded. But I’m relaxing with an Upland Wheat now and have a better outlook on things. my apologies.
     
  26. bshields

    bshields Junior
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    No problem. I don’t take things personal on here.
     
  27. Krafty97grad

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    As we see more remote work/school become the norm, I think there will be an increase of formal activities for kids (sports, art, music, etc). It will become the primary in person engagement for kids over next 5-10 years. It will likely also serve as the primary social outlet for parents who themselves will be working a lot more remotely (developing less work based connections). The remote schooling will be driven by financial constraints that will face many school districts (due to lower taxes from shuttered companies and commercial real estate plummeting). Covid19 showed how cost efficient corporations can be by eliminating offices, travel, etc., that bell can’t be unrung (everyone likes more profit). I think the conversion of corporate/commercial real estate to residential will be significant (if not, the amount of large scale vacant buildings in most metropolitan areas will be scary).

    Some industries I see with diminished demand permanently:

    1: Construction (road - due to lower traffic / repair and commercial/office development specifically hurt the most, residential less so)
    2: Public transportation (bus drivers, train related personnel, taxis - furthering the squeeze from Uber/lyft)
    3: Urban service based jobs (cleaning crews, restaurants, hotels
    4. Auto industry (corporate cars, rental cars for business travelers, less driving for commuting - longer car life)
    5. As McNutt stated, any business that targets corporate offices

    There are many others. I think the economic challenges we face due to the ripple effects of accelerated digitalization from the last 3 months make the next 5-10 years bleak for the majority of Americans (it will further the gap between the haves vs have nots). Covid will be solved in the next 12 months, but the digitization genie won’t go back in the bottle when the virus goes away. We are going to need serious politicians at all levels as well as business / education leaders to navigate the most difficult transformation in the last 80-90 years. While I don’t think we will see breadlines, etc like the last Depression, I think in 2-3 years, the discussion about permanent social nets, etc for the millions of workers unqualified for the gig economy will be a scary reality.

    My optimistic thought to close, is that everything I wrote above is dead wrong, and the next decade will be glorious.
     
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  28. sglowrider

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    Yah. I spend a month backpacking through the southern islands of Greece in my sophomore year at IU. Went to the mentioned island then. My budget was 10bucks for lodging and 10 for food per day. The cruise ships killed off that type of travel.

    We hopped around from island to island (Santorini, Patmos, Mykonos, Rhodes, etc) by ferry which was more like what you imagine African river ferries were like. Crappy 50y.o machines with exhaust fumes seeping into the cabins. Thoughts of drowning in the middle of the Med crossed my mind many times especially the night ferries and during some crappy weather.

    One vital lesson I learnt was being at a ferry terminal, meeting an old Belgium couple, in their 70s at least. Bright and spritely at 6am whilst I was near death at that time fo the day.
    I still have that mental image in my head -- and thinking, I need to be like them when I get to their age. Backpacking through the islands like me but with so much more energy at 6am. Bastards!
     
  29. The Vid

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    Commercial real-estate in cities is going to tank big time and those spaces will be converted to residential. Population numbers trending lower will cause rents and real-estate in general to lower. Don’t be long on real-estate, and if you are don’t expect high returns.

    Also I think the recent trend of people moving to cities from more rural areas will reverse.
     
  30. The Vid

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    Santorini is amazing and that cruise ship dock is a disgrace to humanity. I can’t decide where I stand on the cruise industry because it keeps dumb people together and out of the other travel space that I enjoy. It’s a great place for fat ass idiots to eat and drink 6 meals a day, piss in their own pools, wallow in each other’s chit. It’s the same way I view Disney, etc. If all of those people turn to national parks, camping, etc, that would suck.
     
    30 The Vid, Jun 28, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2020
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  31. i'vegotwinners

    i'vegotwinners All-American
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    the under 50 will soon go back to normal society. (wake up, it's happening).

    olders not into Russian roulette will stay in lockdown till a treatment or vaccine or possitive result on a reliable antibodies test.

    the jobs/wages downside for olders, will be offset by the jobs/wages upside for the youngers.

    tech related changes were already taking place and will stay with us, but most "office" work will go back to physically attending the office, and all non "office" work never stopped attendance being required.
     
  32. zeke4ahs

    zeke4ahs Hall of Famer
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    I remember puking for the entire trip on one of those and I wasn’t even hungover. Terrible motion sickness but the entire ship was doing the same. Worst boat I’ve ever been on.
     
  33. sglowrider

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    Reminds me of ferry ride I took with my ex-wife to one of the nearby island in Malaysia. She wanted to go native and rent one of those huts for like $4/night when there was a 5star resort on the other side of the island. :rolleyes: (note the word ex.)
    On the way back, I saw a bunch of people stuffing their faces like it was their last supper right before boarding the ferry back to Singapore. I have never seen so much puke in a toilet before in my life other than in some freshman dorm at IU.
     
  34. sdhoosier

    sdhoosier All-Big Ten
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    This is why I'll never go on a cruise...the real fun starts at about the 4 minute mark

     
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  35. sglowrider

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    Or a bad storm at sea...

     
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  36. sglowrider

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  37. outside shooter

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    It will be crazy. Brady will be a Buccaneer, and Cam freaking Newton will QB the Patriots.

    Super weird.
     
  38. VanPastorMan

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    This video with the discussion on the forum got me to thinking that one change that might happen is the reduction of city size. If you can work from home then why live in a city that is congested with housing and apartments being high in cost? You feasibly could work in another state and just visit the corporate office. In fact perhaps the corporate office will decide to leave the city because office space is too expensive.
     
  39. outside shooter

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  40. Krafty97grad

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    Business travel will be forever reduced (not because of the virus) but because remote working has proved to be much more efficient / cost effective. Business travel and expenses are the lifeblood of urban restaurants / hotels. Urban restaurants / hotels will over the long-term never see the M-TH demand that existed pre-Covid from out of town business guests, resulting in less restaurants / hotels. Metropolitan guests (daily commuters) will also be significantly reduced, WFH pre-Covid averaged at most 20% (1 day) per week for corporate employees, post-Covid WFH will average 60% (3 days) per week for corporate employees. This will enable corporations to reduced real estate over intermediate/long term (many are currently in leases they won't be able to drop immediately), cutting major expenses long term (due to smaller footprints, office equipment, etc.). It also reduces employee costs (professional clothing, commuting, food, etc.) so all parties win. Supply chain related jobs (Warehouse, Manufacturing, Transportation) cannot be performed remotely, so I agree those remain "in the office/in person" roles. These types of jobs will continue to see increasing demand and may absorb a small percentage of the losses in other industries, but sadly many of the entry level Supply Chain jobs are minimum wage.

    The majority of employees being displaced across the country are lower wage, "unskilled" service related jobs (people likely under the age of 40). I would agree for certain corporate roles that may have been previously occupied by the 50+ set, that some of those might be filled with younger, "skilled" candidates. However, those opportunities don't offer vast alternatives for those displaced from the service industry. (Link below shows 'Bachelor degree+' is up by ~2M over last year, yet all less educated cohorts are each down by ~2M)

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04.htm

    Business travel/commuting was a demand shock to the economy that was supposed to happen gradually over the next 5-10 years, it occurred in the matter of 4 months, some demand will return vs. today, but a significant amount is lost forever, and an alternative source for new demand isn't anywhere on the horizon.
     
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