Updated Mock Draft

[YOTHN]

Trace up to 33rd on NBADRAFT.NET. They project him to go to Toronto.
I looked at the 2021 contracts for the 13 guys drafted 31st-43rd. One of them is a European that stayed overseas while another guy got a pretty crappy contract, 250k guaranteed. I didn’t look further to see if he was injured or if there were other circumstances impacting his signing.
The other 11 guys all got guaranteed money ranging from 2.5 million to over 4 million. First half of the second round pay has really increased over the years.

The problem is only first round picks have guaranteed money and their salary is already structured. A 1st round pick is guaranteed to get a 4 year contract with the first 2 years guaranteed.

A 2nd round pick has no structured salary and their contract is no different than an undrafted FA's. They can sign a 1-4 year deal but there is no requirement to guarantee any of the money.

Therefore the 30th pick is about $3.4 million guaranteed while the 31st pick could get a deal and get cut after a few practices and walk away with peanuts. He would have to stay with the team for the entire season to make the rookie minimum of $925k. That is highly highly unlikely he would be with the team all season in order to accomplish that.

So going 33rd is no different than going undrafted really. You have some more negotiating power but then again, you are stuck having to negotiate with just one team. Nothing I would get overly excited about.

 

[Champs1976]

Shaq couldn't shoot outside or free throws. Cockburn will get drafted.

NBA has changed a lot since Shq came into the league, and Cockburn is no Shaq, very low stamina and very limited offensively. His greatest skill is outmuscleing smaller guys down low, that skill would have negliible value in the NBA and his ability to come outside the lane and defend guys as tall as he is would be very poor.

I've thought a lot about TJD in the NBA and keep going back his inability to shoot even mid-range shots. While I think there is merit to the argument that there will be an NBA team that will take a chance on him developing a shot, he would have to do that in the G-League where they don't pay much. Would he stand to make more in NIL money by staying and develop and demonstrate a mid range shot this coming season? Maybe.

 

[DCDAVID]

The problem is only first round picks have guaranteed money and their salary is already structured. A 1st round pick is guaranteed to get a 4 year contract with the first 2 years guaranteed.

A 2nd round pick has no structured salary and their contract is no different than an undrafted FA's. They can sign a 1-4 year deal but there is no requirement to guarantee any of the money.

Therefore the 30th pick is about $3.4 million guaranteed while the 31st pick could get a deal and get cut after a few practices and walk away with peanuts. He would have to stay with the team for the entire season to make the rookie minimum of $925k. That is highly highly unlikely he would be with the team all season in order to accomplish that.

So going 33rd is no different than going undrafted really. You have some more negotiating power but then again, you are stuck having to negotiate with just one team. Nothing I would get overly excited about.

11/12 of the 2021 second round guys I referenced received at least 2.5 million of guaranteed money. I’d take those odds.

 

[T.M.P.]

11/12 of the 2021 second round guys I referenced received at least 2.5 million of guaranteed money. I’d take those odds.

Draft net has been known to be horribly inaccurate. Quit using it ..

There @Cavanagh you happy now? I tried to resist but he just kept referencing them. lol

 

[YOTHN]

11/12 of the 2021 second round guys I referenced received at least 2.5 million of guaranteed money. I’d take those odds.

False. Within the top 12 picks of the 2nd round:
Joe Wieskamp got 200k guaranteed.
Neemias Queta $0
Rokus Jokubaitis $0

Beyond that, you conveniently chose top 12 picks for what reason? Is it because the rest of the 2nd round draft picks had like 4 other guys in total who earned money?

The end point is its a gamble to leave early for TJD if the only goal is to get that guaranteed money. 43 draftees last year earned guaranteed money. You are saying he is currently #43 (in a very flawed mock draft btw). If he has reasons outside of that, then no one can say what the right choice is but him. Let's just not point to a 2nd round pick as meaning anything but a big gamble that could result in making less money domestically or playing overseas.

 

[Jssanto]

TJD is listed in the 2nd round, pick #44 to Dallas.

Others of note:

1st Round:
3 - Ivey
7 - Murray
9 - Davis (Wisc)
30 - Liddell

2nd Round:
52 - Edey

Not Drafted:
62 - Kofi
66 - Williams (PU)
78 - Dickinson

https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2022-nba-mock-draft/[/U

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Trace up to 33rd on NBADRAFT.NET. They project him to go to Toronto.
I looked at the 2021 contracts for the 13 guys drafted 31st-43rd. One of them is a European that stayed overseas while another guy got a pretty crappy contract, 250k guaranteed. I didn’t look further to see if he was injured or if there were other circumstances impacting his signing.
The other 11 guys all got guaranteed money ranging from 2.5 million to over 4 million. First half of the second round pay has really increased over the years.

interesting. NIL money could match 250k but not 2.5 M
Sounds like Trace is gone

 

[Jssanto]

The problem is only first round picks have guaranteed money and their salary is already structured. A 1st round pick is guaranteed to get a 4 year contract with the first 2 years guaranteed.

A 2nd round pick has no structured salary and their contract is no different than an undrafted FA's. They can sign a 1-4 year deal but there is no requirement to guarantee any of the money.

Therefore the 30th pick is about $3.4 million guaranteed while the 31st pick could get a deal and get cut after a few practices and walk away with peanuts. He would have to stay with the team for the entire season to make the rookie minimum of $925k. That is highly highly unlikely he would be with the team all season in order to accomplish that.

So going 33rd is no different than going undrafted really. You have some more negotiating power but then again, you are stuck having to negotiate with just one team. Nothing I would get overly excited about.

Wow . Very different from the other post on this I read.
This sounds like Trace, unless he is receiving great feedback from multiple sources, should stay.

 

[DCDAVID]

False. Within the top 12 picks of the 2nd round:
Joe Wieskamp got 200k guaranteed.
Neemias Queta $0
Rokus Jokubaitis $0

Beyond that, you conveniently chose top 12 picks for what reason? Is it because the rest of the 2nd round draft picks had like 4 other guys in total who earned money?

The end point is its a gamble to leave early for TJD if the only goal is to get that guaranteed money. 43 draftees last year earned guaranteed money. You are saying he is currently #43 (in a very flawed mock draft btw). If he has reasons outside of that, then no one can say what the right choice is but him. Let's just not point to a 2nd round pick as meaning anything but a big gamble that could result in making less money domestically or playing overseas.

First off I looked at the first 13, not 12 as you wrote, and stated that one of those 13, Rokus, was a European that stayed in the Euro Leauge. You have him at zero which is beyond meaningless because he signed a 4 year deal with Barcelona prior to the NBA draft and stated the odds of him going to the NBA were minuscule. Despite that the Knicks traded for his rights but yes, he got zero from the Knicks because he was already being paid by Barcelona.

That leaves 12 guys that didn’t already have a healthy Euro contract and I said 11/12 have guaranteed deals over 2,000,000. The guy that doesnt have a decent deal is Wieskamp who you list at 200k and I read received 250k. In any case he is indeed the guy without big guaranteed money. I haven't looked into, and have no idea, why he is the exception.

I read that Queta has guaranteed money over 2mm, not zero, with 1,576,305 of that being next season. It does look, however, he was given the QO during this last season (Ie not when he was drafted). In either case by the end of his second season he will have made over 2mm, not your dramatic zero, and I doubt he is regretting his decision.

I “conveniently chose top 12 picks for what reason” implies I had a agenda although I actually was only curious as to what TJD might make if he was picked in the range in which I read he was being predicted. I had no idea what results I would see. Ironically you are the one with an agenda trying to make the 2nd round look as unappealing as possible. Actually I looked at the first 13 picks, not 12. I read he was projected to be picked 33rd, by a service some say is trash (I’ll agree as I have no idea which draft prognosticators are the best), while others posted he was slated to be the 43rd pick. Since 43rd was the later pick I looked at the first 13 picks (to help you out, you might need a calculator, 43-30 first round picks = 13)

You stated I said he was slated to be picked 43rd. No I didn’t.

Aside from all of the above your reply was spot-on..LOL

 

[Victorbmyboy]

First off I looked at the first 13, not 12 as you wrote, and stated that one of those 13, Rokus, was a European that stayed in the Euro Leauge. You have him at zero which is beyond meaningless because he signed a 4 year deal with Barcelona prior to the NBA draft and stated the odds of him going to the NBA were minuscule. Despite that the Knicks traded for his rights but yes, he got zero from the Knicks because he was already being paid by Barcelona.

That leaves 12 guys that didn’t already have a healthy Euro contract and I said 11/12 have guaranteed deals over 2,000,000. The guy that doesnt have a decent deal is Wieskamp who you list at 200k and I read received 250k. In any case he is indeed the guy without big guaranteed money. I haven't looked, and have no idea, why he is the exception.

I read that Queta has guaranteed money over 2mm, not zero, with 1,576,305 of that being next season. It does look, however, he was given the QO during this last season (Ie not when he was drafted). In either case by the end of his second season he will have made over 2mm and I doubt he is regretting his decision.

I “conveniently chose top 12 picks for what reason” implies I had a agenda although I actually was only curious as to what TJD might make if he was picked in the range in which he was being predicted. I had no idea what results I would see. Ironically you are the one with an agenda trying to make the 2nd round look as unappealing as possible. Actually I looked at the first 13 picks, not 12. I read he was projected to be picked 33rd, by a service some say is trash (I’ll agree as I have no idea which draft prognosticators are the best), while others posted he was slated to be the 43rd pick. Since 43rd was the later pick I looked at the first 13 picks (to help you out, you might need a calculator, 43-30 first round picks = 13)

You stated I said he was slated to be picked 43rd. No I didn’t.

Aside from the above your reply was spot-on..LOL

It’s 43rd at best. If you average all of them it’s literally in the 55-60th pick that’s including the 33rd trash pick. A lot have him undrafted. He’s coming back. He’s not getting guaranteed money.

 

[DCDAVID]

It’s 43rd at best. If you average all of them it’s literally in the 55-60th pick that’s including the 33rd trash pick. A lot have him undrafted. He’s coming back. He’s not getting guaranteed money.

I hope he comes back and would guess he will if he gets feedback that he will be picked that low (or not picked at all) I wanted to see what guys got for being picked in that range last year and I found out they get more than I realized. Not sure why that is so controversial but whatever.

 

[Victorbmyboy]

I hope he comes back and would guess he will if he gets feedback that he will be picked that low (or not picked at all) I wanted to see what guys got for being picked in that range last year and I found out they get more than I realized. Not sure why that is so controversial but whatever.

It’s not guaranteed in the range he’s projected. That’s what’s important.

 

[DCDAVID]

It’s not guaranteed in the range he’s projected. That’s what’s important.

Yea I get it. I saw projections at 33 and 43 so that’s why I looked. It sounds as those are outlier/bs projections but in any case I get it that he almost certainly will not leave without being certain of guaranteed cash.
Staying at IU next year, and expanding his game to include 12-15 footers (not to mention a right hand) could make him a ton of dough in the future.

 

[jimmygoiu]

Yea I get it. I saw projections at 33 and 43 so that’s why I looked. It sounds as those are outlier/bs projections but in any case I get it that he almost certainly will not leave without being certain of guaranteed cash.
Staying at IU next year, and expanding his game to include 12-15 footers (not to mention a right hand) could make him a ton of dough in the future.

I thought that TJD's right hand was much improved from last year. I do think he has to improve going to his right even more. I saw zero improvement from the 12-17 foot range. IF he can be respectable from there, I could see him as a role player in the NBA. JMO

 

[titaniumbolt]

I would take Murray over Ivey all day

+1 Murray is the real deal and not a TO machine

 

[go_iu]

We agree for once, I think he has zero NBA skills and that will continue until he works on his shot, he needs to be Rashard Lewis, but he's a far cry from close