A few things:
Easiest is to take the 20th century where the Ukraine and independence from after WWI until it didn't in 1919 or so (Prior to that WW1, the Ukraine had significant eras of indepedence that would be too much to discuss at the moment. When the Soviet Union collpased, Ukraine declared its independence. The Ukraine cut a deal with Russia to allow the black feet to lease or occupy the ports on the black sea, and the Ukraine kept the nuclear warheads. The west cut a deal with the Ukraine to give up the nuclear weapons in exchange for a security guaranty from the west, including the United States. That agreement is still in place. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, there was no question that Ukraine was never going to be given NATO membership--and they wouldn't need it with the security agreement in place. They wanted to be part of the European Union for sure. Timothy Snyder outlines Putin's efforts to destablize the Ukraine dating from 1999 when Putin was the direct of the FSS. Those efforts included, but were not limited to, election interference, assassination attempts against Ukrainian presidential candidates.
The point of this, and Snyder would know because he lived there for years, is that Putin's efforts always become a self - fulfiling prophecy--predict an event, and then make it happen. Create an islamic terrorist threat in Chechnya, then do a false flag operation and bomb your own citizens blaming it on the Russians.
It seems like putting the cart before the horse can be dangerous. Here, Putin can justify anything by screaming NATO, NATO, NATO, when it was never going to happen.