Trump called Putin today to congratulate him on his election

[Marvin the Martian]

I don’t recall criticizing him for his jump shot, but I could have

I know I was highly critical of his brackets, and his baseball team. I mean what kind of psychopath is a White Sox fan?

 

[toastedbread]

I might temper some of your language but not the general thrust of your point. The overall thrust of this entire thread and debate has to do with the extent to which we should be alarmed by unfolding events. At the most general level I think my point would be that we are really bad Bayesians and really bad at properly calibrating and responding to alarms. There is probably a vast literature on this.

It's very hard to estimate the risk of a fat tail. In this case, the result will be catastrophic.

 

[iuwclurker1]

We don't know that he was infuriated as a matter of fact. We know that people claimed he was infuriated. What infuriates Trump is disloyalty to Trump.

Let's recap the bidding:

1. Trump congratulates Putin against advisors' explicit advice not to.
2. #1 gets leaked within hours by someone wanting the world to know this seemingly run-of-the-mill event.
3. Trump is furious.
4. #3 gets leaked by someone wanting the world to know the leak infuriated Trump.

Conclusions:
1. Trump decided to congratulate Putin despite his Yes Men explicitly advising him to NOT do ONE THING: CONGRATULATE PUTIN.
2. The leaker, in Trump's very inner circle, felt compelled to inform the world.
3. Trump isn't furious about every single leak, only the leaks he doesn't want leaked. He didn't want this leaked. He didn't want us to know he congratulated Putin. If he wanted Trumpsters to know, he'd tweet that he congratulated him.
4. Kissing Putin's ass in no way forwards Trump's goal of being an autocrat.
5. Trump doesn't give a shit about democracy, American values, or any of that. He cares about his own fat ass. and nothing else. Putin's a barnacle on Trump's bottom but he's stuck with it because he can't get rid of him...for some reason on which we can only speculate. If Putin were to lay his cards on the table, Trump would deny everything and trash Putin so Putin never will. This is one case where Trump doesn't have the guts to call someone's bluff.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

That misreads the situation. I don't think Trump regards himself as compromised or as Putin's puppet. I think he aspires to be the American Putin. His idea is to make use of Putin's capabilities to help him consolidate power here and, in return, he is promises to help Putin maintain power there. Your mistake is that you think Trump believes he gets more power here by looking tough on Russia. Trump's base like Russia...they want him to become America's Putin. It is probably true that a majority of Americans don't share that view and don't wish for Trump to become our Putin. But Trump's actions are calibrated both to alarm them and prove that they are toothless and can be ignored.

Someone suggested that Trump is compromised. It would be a concern and if true, a critical concern. I make no such warranties. If Trump is compromised, Putin should never have had him make that call. As to Trump being America's Putin, I am confident I was the first person on the board to compare Trump to Mussolini. I still believe that to be accurate. We have no laws against Mussolini, nor any way to remove Benito before 4 years without a high crime or misdemeanor. That will be up to Mueller to find.

 

[iuwclurker1]

Banal pleasantries are sometimes just banal pleasantries.

Let's put it this way: Do you agree that Trump congratulating Putin is a case of Trump kissing his ass?

 

[iuwclurker1]

Someone suggested that Trump is compromised. It would be a concern and if true, a critical concern. I make no such warranties. If Trump is compromised, Putin should never have had him make that call. As to Trump being America's Putin, I am confident I was the first person on the board to compare Trump to Mussolini. I still believe that to be accurate. We have no laws against Mussolini, nor any way to remove Benito before 4 years without a high crime or misdemeanor. That will be up to Mueller to find.

Everyone "knows" Trump is compromised. Putin has nothing to hide but the videos (or whatever).

 

[Digressions]

There are serious concerns the president is compromised, I get that. Let's look at it from Putin's view. If I were Putin pulling the strings I would have Trump spitting fire at me every day. He can call me every name in the book, so long as he doesn't DO anything. My way Trump gets to look tough and thus have more power in American politics. The way it is happening, Trump looks weak which adds to the "he's compromised" point. Would Putin really want his top asset on the globe to blow his cover saying "congratulations"? I know that the Chinese are better at the long game, but Putin has to be better than giving up such an asset to cheaply.

My speculation is that Putin hasn't directly threatened DJT, but the message has been relayed. Putin doesn't want DJT to look strong. Putin wants/needs the strength for his own political purposes. The fact that he has furthered his agenda in the Ukraine, Middle East, interferes in western elections, divides western alliances, sows discord in democracies all over the world, uses chemical weapons in the UK, and suffers not even lip service from the POTUS, I'm guessing, delights his ego. So, we agree on the, "so long as he doesn't DO anything" part.

To your point, maybe Putin wishes, DJT would "act" a little tougher, but how would he deliver that message at this point? Is it possible for those two to communicate without anyone else knowing what is said? Recent events would suggest otherwise. It appears to me, DJT treats Putin differently than any other person on the planet, including our closest allies. Why? And no matter the answer to, "why", is it doing service to us, as a nation?

To our Republican friends on this board, one of the great achievements of Ronald Reagan was the fall of the Soviet Union. Should we so easily let them get away with the things I mentioned above? Let them dictate world affairs? How would Reagan have handled those situations? When it comes to DJT, I don't think his tax returns are too much to ask for..."trust, but verify".

 

[iu_a_att]

Ha! Tell me just how Trump would behave toward Putin if he weren't compromised?

Let's try it this way. I am giving you an alternative theory that explains Trump's behavior that does not require that he be compromised. To put it a bit more logically. You suggest it is true that if Trump is compromised (C) then he will behave overly generously towards Putin (G). Marvin suggests that need not be the case. But even if it is, your claim is only that C implies G. But that doesn't mean G implies C. I think Trump is unambigously signalling to Putin that he wants to make some kind of mutually advantageous deal. He has called Putin and now, unexpectedly, asked to schedule a meeting with Putin. The nature of the deal Trump wants is unclear. I don't think it has to do with arms control or energy. I think it is plausible that the deal from Trump's perspective relates to handling the situation here vis Mueller and seeking Putin's help in consolidating power here.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

I know I was highly critical of his brackets, and his baseball team. I mean what kind of psychopath is a White Sox fan?

A psychopath who can’t name a favorite Sox player.

 

[iuwclurker1]

That misreads the situation. I don't think Trump regards himself as compromised

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Wowzer kerbowzers! Do you really believe that? Ass-kissing is not the same as hero worship. Putin doesn't kiss ass. Duterte doesn't kiss ass. Trump kisses ass. Kissing ass is no path to autocracy and kissing PUtin's ass doesn't make Trump any kind of an autocrat.

xpost

 

[CO. Hoosier]

My speculation is that Putin hasn't directly threatened DJT, but the message has been relayed. Putin doesn't want DJT to look strong. Putin wants/needs the strength for his own political purposes. The fact that he has furthered his agenda in the Ukraine, Middle East, interferes in western elections, divides western alliances, sows discord in democracies all over the world, uses chemical weapons in the UK, and suffers not even lip service from the POTUS, I'm guessing, delights his ego. So, we agree on the, "so long as he doesn't DO anything" part.

To your point, maybe Putin wishes, DJT would "act" a little tougher, but how would he deliver that message at this point? Is it possible for those two to communicate without anyone else knowing what is said? Recent events would suggest otherwise. It appears to me, DJT treats Putin differently than any other person on the planet, including our closest allies. Why? And no matter the answer to, "why", is it doing service to us, as a nation?

To our Republican friends on this board, one of the great achievements of Ronald Reagan was the fall of the Soviet Union. Should we so easily let them get away with the things I mentioned above? Let them dictate world affairs? How would Reagan have handled those situations? When it comes to DJT, I don't think his tax returns are too much to ask for..."trust, but verify".

Lol. We are stymying his Ukraine agenda and Syria is becoming a quagmire. Our energy policy including stepped up LNG exports is taking serious bites out of the Russian energy exports, which is all they’ve got to import wealth. If Putin favored Trump, Putin got hosed.

 

[iu_a_att]

To our Republican friends on this board, one of the great achievements of Ronald Reagan was the fall of the Soviet Union. Should we so easily let them get away with the things I mentioned above? Let them dictate world affairs? How would Reagan have handled those situations? When it comes to DJT, I don't think his tax returns are too much to ask for..."trust, but verify".

I think our Republican friends view Russia as a nothingburger. Their interest is far more in maintaining power here than in anything the Russians may be doing. They aren't enamored of the post war international institutions that have been set up and so they don't mind so much if Russia wants to rip them down. If Russia wants to help them gain and consolidate power here they are perfectly willing to take whatever help is offered. The big problem the GOP has is demographic...being unwilling to grow their tent democracy is becoming increasingly disposable. California is a harbinger for them.

 

[iuwclurker1]

Let's try it this way. I am giving you an alternative theory that explains Trump's behavior that does not require that he be compromised. To put it a bit more logically. You suggest it is true that if Trump is compromised (C) then he will behave overly generously towards Putin (G). Marvin suggests that need not be the case. But even if it is, your claim is only that C implies G. But that doesn't mean G implies C. I think Trump is unambigously signalling to Putin that he wants to make some kind of mutually advantageous deal. He has called Putin and now, unexpectedly, asked to schedule a meeting with Putin. The nature of the deal Trump wants is unclear. I don't think it has to do with arms control or energy. I think it is plausible that the deal from Trump's perspective relates to handling the situation here vis Mueller and seeking Putin's help in consolidating power here.

Okay, Idon't know where any of that came from but I'm just looking at all the available indicators and information. Let's just assume it's something as juvenile as Putin setting Trump up in an orgy in Russia, with the Russians filming. Setting people up for blackmail is what the Russians do. Having sex with every ten that spreads its [sic] legs is what Trump does. Our intelligence experts corroborate that this is what the Russians do. They've been doing it since time immemorial.

So the only question is, is Trump afraid of what those videos might show? Well, why did he arrange for all these salacious American sexcapdes to get silenced at no trivial cost?

 

[Noodle]

In a normal administration, yes. In this case, I disagree. Completely. Leakers are the only window we have into Trump's insanity, and he is insane in any colloquial sense, if not clinically. There's a reason the leakers are leaking this otherwise-trivial stuff. They feel it's their duty to the nation.

Goat's right in one sense, while being wrong overall. For any normal administration this is diplomacy as usual. Not for Trump. That's the point. That's the focus of the nuance. The entire Trump MO is to make the outrageous normal. No. There's nothing normal about the outrageous and there's nothing normal about Trump. Maintaining a clear, composed view of the Trump context requires great effort. There's nothing normal about pathological lying via Twitter multiple times a day, even if it's been going on for 1000 days.

I could not disagree more. It is extremely dangerous for someone to decide on their own what should and should not be leaked. It should not happen. Period. This instance may be inconsequential, but that does not matter. And your desire to have a window into Trump's insanity is completely irrelevant.

In addition, if it's that important for someone to feel the need to leak something, then they also should be prepared to face the all of the consequences that go along with it.

 

[iu_a_att]

lololololol
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Wowzer kerbowzers! Do you really believe that? Ass-kissing is not the same as hero worship. Putin doesn't kiss ass. Duterte doesn't kiss ass. Trump kisses ass. Kissing ass is no path to autocracy and kissing PUtin's ass doesn't make Trump any kind of an autocrat.

xpost

You are an excitable guy! In Trump world those that wants kiss ass of those thats has. Do you agree? What does Putin have that Trump really wants? A pee tape? Evidence of corruption? Everyone in the GOP knows he is a pervert criminal and they don't give two shits about that either--God works in wondrous ways doncha know? None of that matter much. What Putin does have is the capacity to interfere in our elections in ways that help Trump hugely. That interference helped Trump win the first time and Trump is going to need all the help they can give if he is not going to lose bigly in 2018 and 2020.

 

[Noodle]

By that token, we don't know that he congratulated Putin either, but both were leaked.

Huh? Both Trump and the Kremlin said that he did. Now, you and I weren't there, but to suggest we do not know if he congratulated Putin is rather disingenuous.

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account@realDonaldTrump 22h22 hours ago

I called President Putin of Russia to congratulate him on his election victory (in past, Obama called him also). The Fake News Media is crazed because they wanted me to excoriate him. They are wrong! Getting along with Russia (and others) is a good thing, not a bad thing.......

37,344 replies 27,079 retweets 114,581 likes

 

[iu_a_att]

You are an excitable guy! In Trump world those that wants kiss ass of those thats has. Do you agree? What does Putin have that Trump really wants? A pee tape? Evidence of corruption? Everyone in the GOP knows he is a pervert criminal and they don't give two shits about that either--God works in wondrous ways doncha know? None of that matter much. What Putin does have is the capacity to interfere in our elections in ways that help Trump hugely. That interference helped Trump win the first time and Trump is going to need all the help they can give if he is not going to lose bigly in 2018 and 2020.

Of course, it could be that Trump just wants to get a better deal on rockets.

 

[iu_a_att]

Huh? Both Trump and the Kremlin said that he did. Now, you and I weren't there, but to suggest we do not know if he congratulated Putin is rather disingenuous.

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account@realDonaldTrump 22h22 hours ago

I called President Putin of Russia to congratulate him on his election victory (in past, Obama called him also). The Fake News Media is crazed because they wanted me to excoriate him. They are wrong! Getting along with Russia (and others) is a good thing, not a bad thing.......

37,344 replies 27,079 retweets 114,581 likes

I agree with this. Trump was absolutely upfront about the congratulations. The line about "getting along with others...is a good thing" hahahahahahaha. You are not addressing the motives for leaking or who you think leaked? Was it some deep state democrat? Was it Trump himself? Or Kelly? If Trump leaked it himself should he be prosecuted?

 

[iuwclurker1]

Huh? Both Trump and the Kremlin said that he did. Now, you and I weren't there, but to suggest we do not know if he congratulated Putin is rather disingenuous.

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account@realDonaldTrump 22h22 hours ago

I called President Putin of Russia to congratulate him on his election victory (in past, Obama called him also). The Fake News Media is crazed because they wanted me to excoriate him. They are wrong! Getting along with Russia (and others) is a good thing, not a bad thing.......

37,344 replies 27,079 retweets 114,581 likes

Fair enough. So we're to doubt the leakers selectively?

 

[iuwclurker1]

You are an excitable guy! In Trump world those that wants kiss ass of those thats has. Do you agree? What does Putin have that Trump really wants? A pee tape? Evidence of corruption? Everyone in the GOP knows he is a pervert criminal and they don't give two shits about that either--God works in wondrous ways doncha know? None of that matter much. What Putin does have is the capacity to interfere in our elections in ways that help Trump hugely. That interference helped Trump win the first time and Trump is going to need all the help they can give if he is not going to lose bigly in 2018 and 2020.

Pee tape? Trump's financial shenanigans with Russian could put Trump in jail for years, if he broke laws.

 

[iuwclurker1]

I could not disagree more. It is extremely dangerous for someone to decide on their own what should and should not be leaked. It should not happen. Period. This instance may be inconsequential, but that does not matter. And your desire to have a window into Trump's insanity is completely irrelevant.

In addition, if it's that important for someone to feel the need to leak something, then they also should be prepared to face the all of the consequences that go along with it.

Good. Let it be said we thoroughly disagree.

If Trump's secrets are that important, he should hire people with enough integrity to keep them secret. Sounds like what you're saying is that Trump's inner circle sucks in yet one more way.

Obama managed to keep the bin Laden take-down secret. It can be done.

Furthermore, nothing's irrelevant. Yes, the leaker could go full whistleblower, but then s/he'd get fired, thus removing a communication line to the public. The only way we can get rid of Trump is through impeachment conviction. Leaks are our friends. Our Founding Fathers didn't envision Trump.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

Of course, it could be that Trump just wants to get a better deal on rockets.

Putin can’t like our heavy lift rockets either. It won’t be long until we won’t need the Russian rocket engines. But ya know, since Trump is Putin’s bitch, I guess Trump will halt development of our 3 heavy lift rockets. Let us know when that happens, okay?

 

[Digressions]

Lol. We are stymying his Ukraine agenda and Syria is becoming a quagmire. Our energy policy including stepped up LNG exports is taking serious bites out of the Russian energy exports, which is all they’ve got to import wealth. If Putin favored Trump, Putin got hosed.

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/13/exx...ctic-assets-if-us-russian-relations-thaw.html

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/trump-sec-rule-foreign-governments-235013

You make a valid argument. Low energy prices are the worst thing for the Russian economy. I can't explain it. Maybe Trump felt he couldn't get reelected without the help of big oil?

I read (over a year ago) that only American companies had the technology to extract from some of those reserves. My links might help explain why passing those sanctions took so long? The administration was hoping to ease the '14 sanctions. 87 billion barrels at a measly $60/barrel is still $5.22 trillion. Although, there is debate over how much it would cost per barrel to extract it. I'm seeking clarity if the bill passed in the 2nd link, would allow oil companies to get around the '14 and/or '18 sanctions? My research time is limited today.

 

[hoosboot]

Nah, if you go by most theologians I have ever heard, the A.C. will actually come across as a pretty great guy at first. He will not hit the scene with 50ish percent of the world populace hating his guts.

Trying not to go down into a big theology discussion but the old saying about the road to hell being paved with good intentions, well that would kind of apply to whomever that guy will be. He is supposed to start off as a peacemaker who will transform into a monster.

I've read some theological analysis from The Church of the Okeydoke and it advances the Theory of Hiding in Plain Sight. The THIPS states that, since everyone expects the A.C. to seem like a great dude before revealing his true evil to the unexpecting world, the A.C. will actually come across to the world as a gigantic a-hole. Most of the world hating him will lull everyone into a false sense of security that he's not the A.C. and then he will royally f*ck everyone and prove to be as gigantic an a-hole as he initially appeared.

 

[Noodle]

Fair enough. So we're to doubt the leakers selectively?

I think you are confusing me with some other poster. I have not suggested that the leak about Trump being advised not to congratulate, or the leak about Trump fuming over that leak, are untrue. I have no reason to doubt that they are accurate. I think it's fair to question the veracity of a leak when it contradicts or is refuted by something (especially a sourced fact), or when it simply seems highly implausible. Frankly, I tend to believe that most leaks or other un-sourced pieces of information are true (or mostly true), particularly if they are reported by reputable news organizations. I'm a pragmatist rather than a "prove it or it's not true" type of person. At the same time, I won't leap to wildass fantasies just because "Trump is evil." For example, the claim that it was Trump who leaked that he was advised not to congratulate Putin--which, by the way, requires one to doubt the leak that Trump was fuming over the leak of that advice (i.e., selective doubting of leakers).

 

[IUCrazy2]

I've read some theological analysis from The Church of the Okeydoke and it advances the Theory of Hiding in Plain Sight. The THIPS states that, since everyone expects the A.C. to seem like a great dude before revealing his true evil to the unexpecting world, the A.C. will actually come across to the world as a gigantic a-hole. Most of the world hating him will lull everyone into a false sense of security that he's not the A.C. and then he will royally f*ck everyone and prove to be as gigantic an a-hole as he initially appeared.

Cool story.

You guys are total dicks when it comes to any religious talk, just f.y.i.

 

[hoosboot]

American presidents have met dictators for a long long time. As far as I know they have always used diplomatic language. Do you think FDR phoned Stalin and called him a stinking SOB? I will bet even Carter found something nice to say to the Shah and other dictators.

I am not saying I would have congratulated him, just this isn't close to the biggest mistake an American leader has ever made.

Our relationship with Russia seems to call for the ol' "speak softly and carry a big stick" approach, but I'm fairly certain this President doesn't carry that club in his bag.

 

[hoosboot]

Cool story.

You guys are total dicks when it comes to any religious talk, just f.y.i.

Sorry...just trying to bring some levity to the situation. Wasn't trying to be a dick. FYI, "You guys" posts are dickish, too.

 

[iuwclurker1]

I think you are confusing me with some other poster. I have not suggested that the leak about Trump being advised not to congratulate, or the leak about Trump fuming over that leak, are untrue. I have no reason to doubt that they are accurate. I think it's fair to question the veracity of a leak when it contradicts or is refuted by something (especially a sourced fact), or when it simply seems highly implausible. Frankly, I tend to believe that most leaks or other un-sourced pieces of information are true (or mostly true), particularly if they are reported by reputable news organizations. I'm a pragmatist rather than a "prove it or it's not true" type of person. At the same time, I won't leap to wildass fantasies just because "Trump is evil." For example, the claim that it was Trump who leaked that he was advised not to congratulate Putin--which, by the way, requires one to doubt the leak that Trump was fuming over the leak of that advice (i.e., selective doubting of leakers).

Fair enough again.

Or that Trump leaked it and then leaked that he was angry about the leaker, which would totally fit Trump's 80s Barron Interviews MO. Anger is part of his self-image as a president:

He seems to think he needs to be angry to lead the greatest country in the history of the world. Makes him look tough. He wants to look tough, just to make sure you know he's serious.

Btw, how serious can one get? Dead.

 

[iu_a_att]

I've read some theological analysis from The Church of the Okeydoke and it advances the Theory of Hiding in Plain Sight. The THIPS states that, since everyone expects the A.C. to seem like a great dude before revealing his true evil to the unexpecting world, the A.C. will actually come across to the world as a gigantic a-hole. Most of the world hating him will lull everyone into a false sense of security that he's not the A.C. and then he will royally f*ck everyone and prove to be as gigantic an a-hole as he initially appeared.

I googled "The Church of the Okeydoke" and came up with this...a cool story...maybe you know it...I didn't.

Was it Brother Poe who first advanced the THIPS?

 

[DrHoops]

But he does indeed rig the elections:

I concur with just about everything you have written in this thread, but Putin is not vunerable to the public. The fact is that he is highly popular. He does not even need to rig elections to win.

The only potential manner in which Putin is forcibly removed is if elites turn against him.

 

[sglowrider]

Lol. Nuance isn’t your strong point. Almost everything I posted about Hillary (except for two points) was critical of her. But that is not the same thing as saying I criticized everything she did. Same for Obama. There is a highly nuanced difference which you seem to have missed.

 

[i'vegotwinners]

And yes, the Russians have been found to be meddling. They are doing it on both sides to agitate differences in this country. It is all laid out in a 20 year old manifesto.

as are the 2 main US branches of the Wall St Party.

a tweak on wag the dog.

keep the conservatives and liberals fixated on each other as the enemy, while the puppeteers keep pulling the strings..

 

[sglowrider]

We are beta-testing ways to get the President to read his briefings.​

 

[sglowrider]