I've posted some thoughts about this in other threads, but thought it was a worthy enough discussion to start a new thread.
What does everyone think about this years start versus the first few weeks last year?
Main reason I'm asking, is I'm a tad worried that we might be overvaluing some of the things we've done so far. Mainly our defensive efforts. It seems like everyone is attributing our early success this season mainly to our defensive efforts thus far. I'm not so sure that tells the whole story. And I'm a little worried we're turning a blind eye to some flashing warning signs.
First off, our competition level has been really bad so far. St Johns is the obvious exception to that, but at this point last year, we had already played Providence, Texas, Stanford, and Florida State. And in ZERO of those games, did our defense allow those "good" opponents to shoot over 40% from the field. This year, we've played just one team that's at those teams level, in St Johns. And we allowed them to shoot 43% from the field, narrowly escaping with a victory. Last year through 5 games, we had only played 1 "bad" team. This year, we'll have played 4. We've looked more dominant this year versus those types of teams, to be sure. But how much of that will correlate to the good teams? It didn't for the entire game against SJU?! At times we were dominant, but when the game was over, we almost lost, and they had put together a solid offensive performance against us.
So is this positive perception of our defense because of the actual results, or more about the style? A man to man defense, that goes long stretches dominating, is visually much more exciting and appealing than the pack line stuff we saw with Archie. But in our only comparable games against good teams...a very key metric (defensive FG %) shows that the boring pack line, that did give up some easy stuff from time to time, was more effective than the more exciting, at times suffocating and dominant, man to man we're seeing this year.
Some of the warning signs I mentioned above...
-2nd half performances thus far have been very underwhelming. A couple of the games flat out bad.
-In our only game comparable to B10 level of play...we allowed their obvious best player and main threat waaaayyyy to many easy catch and shoot opportunities. I like an aggressive man defense as much as the next guy. But I'm more than a little worried that we allowed Champagnie to get that many catch and shoot looks. He may have scored 30 regardless, hes a really good ball player. But we allowed him to get there way too easily.
-Turnovers, free throws, offensive rebounds...these are usually key metrics for successful teams. And we've had our fair share of struggles in these areas. Both against SJU, but also against the weaker teams.
We're about to find out how "real" this early success is. And I'm excited to see it play out.
As I've posted in other threads, the single best takeaway, for me, from our first 5 games is how we respond to stress/adversity. We showed it in the Bahamas, and while I don't like that we've allowed teams back in games in a couple 2nd halves, I LOVE how we've responded and went out and won those games. I think this trait will be what enables this team to win a handful more games than last years team did. But I'm seeing enough questionable stuff, that I'm just not on the train yet to think we're going to make a huge leap this year.