Seeds 9 thru 12 virtually have no chance. There are no Cinderella teams in football that will win it all. On occasion they may win opening round but that will be it
This is not like the basketball tournament
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Disagree.
With the byes going to the top 4 Conf. champs, you end up in a situation where the 12th ranked team ends up as the 4 seed like we have this year with Arizona State. Clemson was the 12 seed at the 16th rank and was NOT that far behind Texas. Brought it to 7 before giving up a long TD and then had it at the UT 1 and turned it over on downs with a chance to bring it back to within 7. What I'm saying there is that Clemson had a decent shot at a relatively friendly path to the final four.
Boise St. is also sitting at the 3 seed while ranked 9th. So there's a similar situation there where Penn State has a reasonable path to the finals as the 6 seed. That's got Cinderella vibes.
The biggest issue that we're seeing is the disconnect between rankings & seedings. Also just everyone having to wrap their heads around this process that is completely novel to us and we're trying too hard to make analogies to other sports.
We WILL see underdogs win in the first round eventually, just didn't happen this year. And it's worth noting that most Cinderellas in March Madness don't make it out of the first weekend, and fewer still make it out of the Sweet Sixteen.
Eh, give it a couple years. Some donk coach will screw up. Hopefully Ryan Day or Lane Kiffin.
I wouldn't call PSU a Cinderella. They are equivalent to a 2 seed in the NCAA tournament.
I wouldn't call PSU a Cinderella. They are equivalent to a 2 seed in the NCAA tournament.
It’s tough. A Cinderella like us has a ~$4M roster going against $12-20M rosters is a lot to overcome with size/athleticism/skill all over the field. On the road 2x harder.
Bball is of course much different — just need a few guys hot from three and that can be enough.
The rev share will help close the gap a little bit, and it’s not impossible, but Cinderellas will probably be rare in CFB.
Bball is of course much different — just need a few guys hot from three and that can be enough.
The rev share will help close the gap a little bit, and it’s not impossible, but Cinderellas will probably be rare in CFB.
Only reason to provide first round home games is for revenue enhancement to the schools at the expense of competitive play. Makes no sense, as does the methodology for seeding. This isn’t brain surgery and shouldn’t need years to get it right (or significantly more right than the current structure).
One guy can make you Cinderella in basketball ala Larry Bird, never happen in football
Home games and conf championship byes suck. That’s not how you construct a fair tournament.
They should change the rules to make upsets more possible. Some ideas:
- make first 2 rounds just one quarter of football.
- make field goals of over 45 yards worth 15 points.
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There just aren’t that many great football teams each year. Perhaps 4 or 5, but certainly not 12. This year, OSU, Georgia, ND, and Oregon are the only ones with legitimate shots at winning it. Perhaps, Texas, too.
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