As good an analysis as any. I can't pick any other B10 roster that I'd say is better than IU's.
I'll just issue the warning that MSU, Wisconsin, Purdue...they lost a lot of dudes, but also returned a lot of key pieces. And their coaches have proven that they'll figure out how to be good, basically every year, no matter what. And Illinois, while completely different, has as much talent as anyone. It seams like we're the best team coming in, but its tough every year for a reason.
And specifically for us, we did go 9-11 last year, and we're going to see a ton of returning usage from guys that led that 9-11 campaign.
My reservations are mainly based on that. X, TJD, Race, Miller, Trey, Tamar, and Jordan were regular rotation guys last year, on a team that was hovering around 100th nationally in offensive efficiency. And while our defense was very solid, it wasn't top 10/dominant, and it had a very annoying habit of being horrid late in close games when we needed stops the most.
To win our league outright, to be a top 10-15 team at the end of the season, we're going to need to improve rather dramatically offensively, and figure out how to get stops when we need them. The pessimistic view, and one I probably bring up too often, is its hard to see THAT level of improvement, when the minutes and usage available to new players is so limited.
The optimistic view, however...is that while we weren't close offensively to being a top 15 team, a B10 champion, etc... last year... in nearly all the games we played, we put ourselves into a solid position to win. And that it won't take a ton of improvement to turn a sizeable chunk of those close losses, into wins. JHS, if he's as good defensively as is being reported, could have a HUGE impact in allowing us to win/close out close games. If Cav is even remotely close to what Tamar will bring, that will have a big impact on our numbers offensively. If Malik can come in and provide any sort of typical 5 star big man contributions, that'll greatly solidify our frontcourt depth and production. If Jordan can build on his late season emergence, and become a consistent athletic, rebounding, 3 point threat at the 3/4 position. If Trey can get healthy, and provide that spark he was starting to show before his injuries...then we'll be really good, and the best team in the B10. These are a lot of IFs, but individually, none of them are a stretch.
So...we return a lot of really good players. Potentially the best PG in the league. Likely the best big man in the league. Likely one of the better "2nd bigs" in the league. Why wouldn't those guys, that have talent around them, win a lot of games? I don't know?! They should! But those same guys should have won a lot more games last year than they did.
Can't wait to see how it plays out.