September 27, 2022 | DaddyHoosier
All you fans of figures rejoice, the weekly number crunch is here.
Indiana leads the all-time series 10-8-3.
SP+ Ranking – Nebraska 69, Indiana 83
CBS Sports 131 – Indiana 72, Nebraska 92
PFF Power Rankings – Nebraska 78, Indiana 82
SP+ Projected Score – Nebraska 34 – Indiana 28
ESPN Pick Center Projected Score – Nebraska 33 – Indiana 27 (as of publication)
So the computers and the pundits like Nebraska. But it’s not like they are overwhelming favorites. Most envision a competitive game here.
Looking at FBS Statistics the thing that jumps out is the struggling Nebraska Defense. Here are their team rankings (out of 131):
Run Defense (yards per game) – 127th (233.5 yds/g)
3rd Down Converstion % D – 126th (.525)
TFLs – 122nd (14)
4th Down Converstion % D – 117th (.714)
Pass D – 115th (280.5 yds/g)
Sacks – 115th (4, 1.0 / g)
Interceptions – 84th (2)
Nebraska’s overall Defensive Score at PFF is 65.4 (of 100) which is 92nd in the country. Their Run Defense Score is 61 (110th in FBS) and their Coverage grade is 65.4 (92nd).
So what gives? How can a 1-3 team with an Interim Head Coach, a loss to Georgia State, and a defense that is, at least by the numbers, borderline dumpster fire, be favored accross the board against a 3-1 Indiana Team?
Well, the computers and PFF are just not feeling Indiana. Look at Scoring Offense. On papers it’s pretty close. Nebraska averages 1.7 more points per game. Indiana averages about 35 more yards per game through the air while Nebraska averages about 78 more yards on the ground. Slight edge for Nebraska but when you look at the PFF Grades Nebraska’s Overall Offensive score is 80.3 (24th in FBS) and Indiana’s is 59.1 (117th).
Then there is sacks.
Nebraska does have a good rushing attack, averaging 193.5 yards per game and 4.72 yards per carry. Their 3rd Down conversion percentage is .526 which is 10th in the country. But Indiana averages 292.8 passing yards per contest (28th) and their 3rd Down conversion percentage is .473 (31st) which is also in the Top 25 percent.
Opportunities
If Indiana executes and can avoid shooting themselves in the foot they could have a good day Offensively. It will be interesting to see if Offensive Coordinator Walt Bell tries to run the ball more as this is Nebraska’s biggest weakness. So far on the season Bell is opting for pass 60 percent of the time, which is a pretty high pass to run ratio.
Indiana should also be able to generate a Pass Rush (despite what heckin PFF says). Indiana has 10 sacks on the year and Nebraska has allowed 11.
Indiana can come into this game with confidence because they won in Lincoln in 2019.
Challenges
Nebraska is also likely thinking that they can add to their season Sack total as the Hoosiers have surrendered 9 so far in 2022 as well as 28 TFLs.
If you take a few Western Kentucky jail-breaks out of the equation Indiana’s Run-D has been pretty strong. However Nebraska will likely test them as their Offense (we think) is still predicated on this.
The Huskers have long, fast receivers and the Indiana Secondary has been struggling so look for Nebraska to go after everybody. If Mullen Island is compromised that takes away much of what the Defense can do, which may explain why we are seeing unexpected cracks in the D elsewhere.
Nebraska does have a blocked kick and a blocked punt this year so Special Teams will need to stay disciplined. And an odd stat, the Huskers have yet to convert on a 4th down offensively.
If Indiana comes into this game thinking, gee they lost to Georgia State and their Coach got fired, this is going to be a cake-walk, they could be in for a rude awakening. They can be confident yes but they need to prepare for a good team because that is what they will likely be facing. There are no shortcuts in Big Ten play.
