Depends on who stays, obviously. If what I laid out earlier is anywhere close to accurate, it won't be a huge drop off. We'll still win most of our non conf. games. And we'll still win a chunk of home conference games, and probably a couple road ones too. So no, it won't be a 12-20, 3-17 type year.
Obviously if the doomsday scenario plays out and we lose basically ALL the seniors, and Bates and Geronimo, and don't land a handful of quality transfers...yeah, then that type of year would happen.
I doubt that happens though. There's a reason none of Xavier, Miller, or Rob spoke on Senior night. Not saying they all stay, but I'll be shocked if they all leave. And Race and TJD leaving, leaves a huge gaping playing time hole that Jordan will fill, and will be enticing to potential transfer bigs. And while Durr and Dumcombe aren't Cody Zeller or Race or TJD...they're going to be serviceable. Especially if Woodson ends up changing the offense around to be more open, perimeter oriented. Durr, Duncomb, Geronimo, Banks isn't a final four calibur interior. But it isn't 12-20 level either.