Guessing here...obviously I have no clue. But attempting to apply psychology, and logic, here's what I think each of our current guys are likely to do.
TJD...If playing in the NBA is still his main personal goal...I can't see any other decision than leaving IU for the draft. The only way he returns is if his NBA aspirations have changed, AND if he loves his IU life so much that he's willing to put his pro career on hold for another year to keep being a college kid. I can't fathom that happening. He's leaving.
Race...Combining the comments TJD made about Geronimo taking his spot over next year...and then him not only giving a speech on Senior night, but being very emotional about it...I can't envision how that could end up being flipped around, to where he comes back. And to your point about what his role would be if he did come back...you're right, he'd naturally be asked to be the "5" man. If Race has pro basketball aspirations, a season anchoring the post, guarding B10 type bigs, isn't going to help him in anyway. He'd need more perimeter play. And if I'm him, I know if I stay at IU, the gravity will be to pull me into the post as the 5. He's leaving.
Parker...Similar to Race...I can't envision him giving that Senior night speech. Getting the framed jersey. And coming back. Further, why did he talk and not Rob, Xavier, or Miller? To me, it most likely means he and Race were the only "seniors" that had made up their minds. The other 3, likely hadn't/haven't.
Xavier...Tough one here. One would have to know how much he's enjoying Woodson, and Bloomington. It seems to me that he's enjoying it. He's come on strong as the year has worn on, hopefully meaning he's becoming more comfortable in his role in Woody's program. He isn't really an obvious NBA prospect. I think with his grittiness, explosiveness, handle, he definitely will make money playing ball somewhere. If he loves IU, for him, Bloomington might be the best place to continue working on his game next year. My guess is he's back.
Miller...Not as tough...for me. I don't see him coming back. He knows JHS is coming in. He knows Trey will be fully healthy. He knows Jordan will play a bigger role. I could see him moving on and transferring somewhere else. Or just being done. Not sure what his academic plans are? Graduate school? I don't see a huge pro basketball future for him. But he could obviously find something overseas if he still wants to play ball. The only thing I could see with IU is if he is finishing a grad school type thing, and would want to be around Bloomington anyways. Maybe a Colin Hartman type situation. My guess is he's gone though.
Rob...Another one where it likely depends on how much he's enjoying Woody, and Bloomington. He might have a feeling of unfinished business, with all his injuries. He might want to prove to pro scouts (overseas mainly), that he can make it through an entire season without getting hurt...to maximize his value? I think in order for him to come back though, he'd have to believe he'd for sure have a big role in our regular rotation. And with X, JHS, Bates, Trey...I'm not sure he would be. I think one, and only one, of X and Rob will be back. And since I said I thought X would be above, I'll say Rob won't be. If that's true, I'd see him as a prime transfer portal candidate. And he'll probably show success wherever he goes, similar to Al Durham. And we'll be lamenting not having him this time next year.
Khristian...Don't know the kid at all. Haven't heard anything about how happy he is, or isn't. But I just can't imagine a former 5 star, top rated PG in his class...will stay with either X or Rob coming back, Bates likely to take a bigger role, and JHS coming in. I'll be very suprised if he comes back. I'll guess he's leaving.
Bates...Can't imagine he's overly happy with how this year played out. I worry a lot about this one. I know Cav thinks he's happy here. But man, I don't know. Again, 5 star kid...not getting a ton of playing time...behind guys that aren't very good themselves...I'm gonna guess he comes back, on promises that his role will expand. But it wouldn't shock me if he didn't.
Jordan...Similar to Bates, he can't be overly excited about his first 2 years at IU. But with TJD and Race leaving, he likely will see the opportunity ahead of him for major minutes for us next year. I think he'll be back.
Michael...Similar to Geronimo. Durr has to realize that IU presents a very unique, high major, opportunity for a lot of playing time. Unless he just doesn't like Woody, or Bloomington, I think he'll be back.
Duncomb...Same as Durr. And I doubt he's upset about not playing. He'll have a chance to play quite a bit. I think he'll be back.
Trey and Anthony...I think both of these kids are gonna be IU lifers. They'll both exhaust all their eligibility, and probably be fixtures in the program for years after that.
If I'm accurate, we'd be losing 5, and bringing in 3 freshman. We'd need an impact transfer that has some size. Either a big, or a long wing. If the Thiero kid is still an option, I'd love to see us sign him. If not, another main rotation level transfer, whatever the position.