SP+ Rankings

[daddyhoosier]

SP+ Final 2022 Preseason Projection

Indiana checks in at 86 😳

Here are 2022 Opponents Ranked:

3 Ohio St
6 Michigan
13 Penn St
15 Michigan St
16 Cincinnati
34 Purdue
44 Nebraska
54 Maryland
66 Western Kentucky
79 Illinois
80 Rutgers

Idaho - FCS

https://t.co/IgqUPSrAFi (ESPN+ Content)

Seems awfully reactionary. These projections aren't very helpful until the last third of the season when there is a decent amount of data.

 

[OrlandoRaider]

Well, the Hoosiers really need to focus on Illinois and Rutgers. Two Big Ten wins will be a huge improvement over last year. I just hope they can score more points. Last year's team was the worst offense of any team in 52 years of following the Hoosiers.

 

[Oxford Collapse]

SP+ Final 2022 Preseason Projection

Indiana checks in at 86 😳

Here are 2022 Opponents Ranked:

3 Ohio St
6 Michigan
13 Penn St
15 Michigan St
16 Cincinnati
34 Purdue
44 Nebraska
54 Maryland
66 Western Kentucky
79 Illinois
80 Rutgers

Idaho - FCS

https://t.co/IgqUPSrAFi (ESPN+ Content)

Seems awfully reactionary. These projections aren't very helpful until the last third of the season when there is a decent amount of data.

Unfortunately, the preseason rankings for SP+ are really, really good. Connelly has shown the proof on that.

I am worried that the coaches and talent we brought in are new faces, and not necessarily better at their craft. And we kept Hiller, who was the biggest problem on the staff last year. I am buckled in for a ceiling of 5 wins this year.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

Unfortunately, the preseason rankings for SP+ are really, really good. Connelly has shown the proof on that.

I am worried that the coaches and talent we brought in are new faces, and not necessarily better at their craft. And we kept Hiller, who was the biggest problem on the staff last year. I am buckled in for a ceiling of 5 wins this year.

Well, given the long list of new faces as you say, there isn’t enough data available to make much of a confident projection for this team.

Last season’s delta between preseason rankings and reality isn’t going to encourage many to give IU the benefit of the doubt. They are going to need to prove it and that is fair.

 

[Oxford Collapse]

Well, given the long list of new faces as you say, there isn’t enough data available to make much of a confident projection for this team.

Last season’s delta between preseason rankings and reality isn’t going to encourage many to give IU the benefit of the doubt. They are going to need to prove it and that is fair.

That’s all totally reasonable. I’m obviously hoping for a much better season, but I’m extremely guarded right now.

Honestly, this is the least excited I’ve been for an IU football season in my lifetime. It’s a long road back after you have a season like IU did last year, and I think a lot of the trust in Allen was based on faith rather than logic. The crowd in the first couple of games will be pretty telling.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

That’s all totally reasonable. I’m obviously hoping for a much better season, but I’m extremely guarded right now.

Honestly, this is the least excited I’ve been for an IU football season in my lifetime. It’s a long road back after you have a season like IU did last year, and I think a lot of the trust in Allen was based on faith rather than logic. The crowd in the first couple of games will be pretty telling.

This program has beaten a lot of us up over the years. At this point I am not going to let a bad game upset me. Hope they win 6 and we all head to a nice destination for a bowl. If they lose again I will watch as much as I want and enjoy the fall Sat tailgates as well.

 

[Orbit7958]

Last year's team was the worst offense of any team in 52 years of following the Hoosiers.

How quickly we forget Jay Rodgers

 

[IUNorth]

SP+ Final 2022 Preseason Projection

Indiana checks in at 86 😳

Here are 2022 Opponents Ranked:

3 Ohio St
6 Michigan
13 Penn St
15 Michigan St
16 Cincinnati
34 Purdue
44 Nebraska
54 Maryland
66 Western Kentucky
79 Illinois
80 Rutgers

Idaho - FCS

https://t.co/IgqUPSrAFi (ESPN+ Content)

Seems awfully reactionary. These projections aren't very helpful until the last third of the season when there is a decent amount of data.

In a different post just now, using 2019 levels of play coming back, I predicted 5-6 wins. I don't think its very likely, at all, it'll be any more than that. And I think its very possible it could be worse.

These particular prognosticators are generally fairly good, and they think 11 of our 12 opponents are better than we are.

I guess we'll find out where we are as a program, fairly quickly. Allen has shown an ability to beat teams at a similar level to IU. In his first 4 seasons at IU, his IU teams beat 1 or 2 teams that were better on paper. And they took care of most of the teams IU was better than on paper. So in that regard, I do think last year was a bad anomaly.

It'll just be how competitive are we, and how lucky can we get, in the "winnable" games. If we have 7+ games that are either wins or are really competitive...I think that's probably a good sign. The other 5 games are against top 15 level teams, with 3 of them on the road.

 

[daddyhoosier]

In the article itself it says these rankings are a preseason power ranking based on returning production, recent recruiting and recent history.
SP+ is a tempo-and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency which relies on actual game data. So technically this isn't the 'real' SP+ ranking (not my words, see Bill Connelly's 8/16 tweet). I've heard Connelly himself say that SP+ is best at the end of the year when there are more data and that early in the year it's less useful. (I wouldn't be surprised if the mother ship encouraged him not to say things like that lol.)

 

[Shuttles]

SP+ Final 2022 Preseason Projection

Indiana checks in at 86 😳

Here are 2022 Opponents Ranked:

3 Ohio St
6 Michigan
13 Penn St
15 Michigan St
16 Cincinnati
34 Purdue
44 Nebraska
54 Maryland
66 Western Kentucky
79 Illinois
80 Rutgers

Idaho - FCS

https://t.co/IgqUPSrAFi (ESPN+ Content)

Seems awfully reactionary. These projections aren't very helpful until the last third of the season when there is a decent amount of data.

If IU Football was a stock, now would be the time to be loading up on it. The natural reaction is to sell after the dumpster fire that was last season.

I expect the defense to play in the range of 15 to 35th best defense in the country. The depth is great, just need a pass rush from the edge to move into the top 25 range.

The season hinges on how much the offense improves. The offensive line is a serious concern, but they are a year older and Walt Bell seems to be engaged in helping them improve. QB play should dramatically improve. My longshot $25 bet on Penix to win the Heismann sadly did not hit. Bazelak has a FLOOR of a competent QB. Tuttle is still putting it together but I prefer to remember him last season for leading the TD drive against Ohia State than for the offense that couldn't produce points against Sparty. I am really interested to see the weapons at the skill positions. For sure will have more explosive playmakers on the field. Once Matthews was injured last year, it seemed there was no pop in the offense. Overall, the range I expect from the offense is anywhere from 40 to 75th nationally.

This team with a competent offense and a pretty good defense can win 7 games. On this list, I don't consider IU a dog to Michigan State or Cincy. I am going to go pour another glass of Kool-Aid and encourage you to all join me.

 

[skippy1813]

Unfortunately, the preseason rankings for SP+ are really, really good. Connelly has shown the proof on that.

FWIW, IU was 28th at the same time last year...

 

[IUNCAAChamps2012]

FWIW, IU was 28th at the same time last year...

any idea what they were heading into 2020?

 

[daddyhoosier]

any idea what they were heading into 2020?

I want to say mid 40s, I'm looking it up...

Nope 33, 51 in 2019.

 

[Sir_Saucy]

If IU Football was a stock, now would be the time to be loading up on it. The natural reaction is to sell after the dumpster fire that was last season.

I expect the defense to play in the range of 15 to 35th best defense in the country. The depth is great, just need a pass rush from the edge to move into the top 25 range.

The season hinges on how much the offense improves. The offensive line is a serious concern, but they are a year older and Walt Bell seems to be engaged in helping them improve. QB play should dramatically improve. My longshot $25 bet on Penix to win the Heismann sadly did not hit. Bazelak has a FLOOR of a competent QB. Tuttle is still putting it together but I prefer to remember him last season for leading the TD drive against Ohia State than for the offense that couldn't produce points against Sparty. I am really interested to see the weapons at the skill positions. For sure will have more explosive playmakers on the field. Once Matthews was injured last year, it seemed there was no pop in the offense. Overall, the range I expect from the offense is anywhere from 40 to 75th nationally.

This team with a competent offense and a pretty good defense can win 7 games. On this list, I don't consider IU a dog to Michigan State or Cincy. I am going to go pour another glass of Kool-Aid and encourage you to all join me.

Almost any team with a good defense and a competent offense will win 7+ games. This IU team will probably have only 1 of those things, however.

Walt Bell is the QB coach/OC, not sure how his "engagement" with the OL matters. I would assume all OCs are fairly engaged with all position units of the offense.

I prefer to remember the IU team in the 1Q against Cincinnati as opposed to the rest of that game, but that ignores a lot of reality.

The offense has been pretty bad under CTA sans Deboer. OL still is going to be bad, QB is still a huge question mark. I don't agree that Bazelak has a "FLOOR" of a competent QB seeing as how he was near bottom of the SEC in almost every passing statistic last year. And our weapons still aren't exciting to me, hopefully someone emerges but cast-offs from other P5 schools don't have a great track record here.

I love the optimism, but I just don't have it with regards to the offense. Defense will be solid to really good. They were last year until they just broke from one of the worst offenses in recent memory. If the offense is just below average instead of god-awful we will have a SHOT at winning 7 or 8 games just because the defense should keep it close.

 

[Hoosier Clarion]

Almost any team with a good defense and a competent offense will win 7+ games. This IU team will probably have only 1 of those things, however.

Walt Bell is the QB coach/OC, not sure how his "engagement" with the OL matters. I would assume all OCs are fairly engaged with all position units of the offense.

I prefer to remember the IU team in the 1Q against Cincinnati as opposed to the rest of that game, but that ignores a lot of reality.

The offense has been pretty bad under CTA sans Deboer. OL still is going to be bad, QB is still a huge question mark. I don't agree that Bazelak has a "FLOOR" of a competent QB seeing as how he was near bottom of the SEC in almost every passing statistic last year. And our weapons still aren't exciting to me, hopefully someone emerges but cast-offs from other P5 schools don't have a great track record here.

I love the optimism, but I just don't have it with regards to the offense. Defense will be solid to really good. They were last year until they just broke from one of the worst offenses in recent memory. If the offense is just below average instead of god-awful we will have a SHOT at winning 7 or 8 games just because the defense should keep it close.

Bell's engagement with the OL is important because Sheridan had no pertinent experience to be able to pass along anything helpful to make a difference. Just as with the other position groups an OC is responsible to oversee. He failed badly his responsibilities.

 

[Sir_Saucy]

Bell's engagement with the OL is important because Sheridan had no pertinent experience to be able to pass along anything helpful to make a difference. Just as with the other position groups an OC is responsible to oversee. He failed badly his responsibilities.

Bell has never been an OL coach, much like Sheridan. He does has more overall experience, yes.

I agree Sheridan was not good as an OC but I don't see how someone who has never coached a position group being "engaged" with said position group means it will perform better.

 

[Hoosier Clarion]

Bell has never been an OL coach, much like Sheridan. He does has more overall experience, yes.

I agree Sheridan was not good as an OC but I don't see how someone who has never coached a position group being "engaged" with said position group means it will perform better.

...experience means a lot...

 

[td75]

Hopefully Rod Carey's presence inspires the oline!!!