If these numbers are anywhere close to reality, it's going to be a bad November for Democrats. I always thought the Hispanic vote would tighten up between the two parties, but didn't think it would this quickly.
Shifting demographics in parties.
- Thread starter snarlcakes
- Start date
If these numbers are anywhere close to reality, it's going to be a bad November for Democrats. I always thought the Hispanic vote would tighten up between the two parties, but didn't think it would this quickly.
Well, Hispanics are stereotyped as hard-working, family-oriented, and religious.
So the Dems losing them as voters is not much of a surprise.
After all, what is a woman? What is a recession? What is a mostly-peaceful protest?
The public idiocy of Democrat leaders has been unmatched in my lifetime. If the GOP wasn’t in tatters, the Democrats might all be tossed out.
So the Dems losing them as voters is not much of a surprise.
After all, what is a woman? What is a recession? What is a mostly-peaceful protest?
The public idiocy of Democrat leaders has been unmatched in my lifetime. If the GOP wasn’t in tatters, the Democrats might all be tossed out.
Maybe we can get some REAL GOP conservatives back in office. Not these wackos that are making all the news
There was some interesting data along these lines that I believe @Spartans9312 posted a couple weeks ago.....a deeper dive, that showed the same thing. At the same time, there has also been a mass exodus of college educated white voters to the Democratic party. So how it all comes out in the wash remains to be seen.
The GOP will most definitely win the House. The Senate is where things look very much up in the air. Rumor mill this week is that the national GOP is close to throwing in the towel in PA and Dr Oz.... and focusing resources elsewhere.
"If these numbers are anywhere close to reality, it's going to be a bad November for Democrats."
You've been riding this horse (bad Nov for Dems) for a while, but you've missed the shift in polling... Not only does it look like the Dems will pick up 3 or more Senate seats, but the generic ballot has shifted and nobody believes it's going to be some kind of "red wave" even in the House...
Even MTG and the host of the show she was on this past week...Of course she chalks it up to "lack of confidence in the system", but the reality is that the polls are shifting heavily towards Dems...
The key question is which polling model will prevail? By and large the polls showing a GOP lead are modeled on "likely voters", and that relies heavily on traditional turnout figures for off year elections. But the polls which are modeled on "registered voters" are tilting towards Dems and defy the conventional wisdom.
Take for example the You gov/ CBS poll you cite, where the Pubs lead the generic ballot by 2%, and that's with the Hispanic factor baked in. That poll, and Rasmussen (+5 GOP) are the only recent polls showing the GOP ahead in the generic ballot, and both rely on sampling "likely voters". And in the case of Rasmussen they've dropped from (+10 GOP) on July 21 to only (+5 GOP) on July 28, a week later...That is significant because Rasmussen is a B rated poll with a GOP lean and even they show a 5% drop...
But registered voters are showing by and large a preference for Dems. A different client that You Gov polls for (The Economist) which rates a B+ compared to Rasmussen's B has shown a huge shift in a little over a month. On June 28 they showed the GOP leading 45-40, when other higher rated polls showed a virtual tie. But last week their latest poll showed the Dems ahead 44-38, an 11 % shift among Registered voters. And that's the general trend as both the rolling 538 and RCP averages show the GOP with a less than 1% lead (.4 and .9 %) respectively, which is almost singularly due to Rasmussen still showing a 5% lead for the GOP...
These numbers don't even include the budget deal which Schumer and Mancin worked out, which will likely prove hugely popular with Dems and some Independents as well. Again that is precisely the type of issue that is likely to further motivate Dem voters, adding to the momentum that ROE/SCOTUS, Jan 6, and extremist GOP candidates have already shown are driving increased Dem/independent voters to become more engaged. All that is in contrast to conventional wisdom, and might be a huge reason that "likely voter models" for this particular midterm are less effective as a predictor...
Democrats +3 in the senate? I wish I knew you, so we could wager on it. I’ve seen some of the shifting towards Democrats over the past month in some polling, but I’m still predicting Republicans take back both the House and Senate.
Such a huge change should make one question whether that information can be taken at face value.
This has been coming for a while, ever since all the Hispanics realized that the best Taco bowls are made at Trump Tower Grill.
Overwhelming majority of Hispanics our pro gun control and pro choice. So does this mean the GOP line will shift on those topics?
“Hispanic” isn’t much of a cohesive voting block since it includes Spanish, South American, Central American, Caribbean, Cuban, etc.
with that said, if the Ds have any dreams of ever turning TX blue, making AZ a lean D state, or not losing NV, then they 100% cannot afford to lose ground with the Mexican-American block in the southwest.
with that said, if the Ds have any dreams of ever turning TX blue, making AZ a lean D state, or not losing NV, then they 100% cannot afford to lose ground with the Mexican-American block in the southwest.
If I'm a Dem running this year I would be talking mostly about the PACT act and this Anti Inflation bill. Non stop.
LOl I would bet you 100 bucks the top takes the house and another 100 the dems do not pick up 3 senate seats. You have learned nothing from the polling industry and how awful they are especially in summer. I mean if thats what you want to run with go for it bu there will be a red wave and you will look back wondering why iun the world you once again believed mid summer push polls that always favor the dems in every cycle. So how about that bet $200. You in?
I only fell out of my chair laughing after reading his post because I think he honestly believes that stuff. If he knew anything about mid summer polling he would know it is bs and always favors and oversamples dems but he is quoting You/GOV which is one of the worst for ovesampling dems. I could give him a million examples like fox having mark kelling up 17 in July 2020 or have BIden up 6 in Ohio in July of 2020. Only of 15 and 14 points on those two. They also had BIden up 4 in Florida lol. The repubs will easily take back the house with likely 40 plus seats gained. Senate is more up in the air but I predict the GOP gets 52 seats. I hope he bets me the $200 I offered but I doubt he will cause he knows I am right he is just a partisan liberal.
Since you love and believe polls so much and even quote rasmussen here you go. Looks like your boy would get slaughtered by the orange man bad!!! Just destroyed.
A new national telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports finds that, if the election were held today, just 40% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote to reelect Biden, while 46% would vote for Trump. Another 10% would choose some other candidate in a Biden-Trump rematch. These findings are unchanged since January. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
I take offense as a Black man ,that I'm not hardworking.X-ray tech for over 30 years,not family oriented 7 kids none have ever been in jail. Religious a Deacon in my church. You are blaming all of the country's problem on the Dems but the GOP has hand in it also.
How about some real GOP moderates that can fix the economy and heal this nation rather than further divide it?
I take offense at your post - at least if you mean it as a (false) accusation of racism.
I said nothing about black men in my post. If it offended you as a black man based on race, then I have to ask why? Why does or should a post about the stereotypes applied by others to Hispanics (not applied by me) mean that black men are NOT considered hard working? Does my same post address Eskimos? Pacific Islanders? Any other demographic label tracked by a census or political party? No, it does not. Should they feel belittled or blamed by my post? No, they should not.
Plus, if you think I accept the stereotypes puked out by the folks who practice identity-politics, and label everybody, then you do not read many of my posts. I rail against The Labelmakers and The Vote Whores almost daily.
Democrats wont allow any GOP to be viewed as moderates. And they dont believe in compromise.
Here is where we are - read at your own risk:
Are the New Progressive Rules Reciprocal? › American Greatness
In the era of peak woke we are supposed to accept any radical departure from long-held custom and tradition as the new normal. Perhaps. But if so, is the improved new code of behavior at least…
amgreatness.com
For sure, but it's not just the Ds on that train.Democrats wont allow any GOP to be viewed as moderates. And they dont believe in compromise.
Here is where we are - read at your own risk:
Are the New Progressive Rules Reciprocal? › American Greatness
In the era of peak woke we are supposed to accept any radical departure from long-held custom and tradition as the new normal. Perhaps. But if so, is the improved new code of behavior at least…
"Radical" & "left wing" are the descriptors used for just about every Dem by the GOP.
And even going back to passing the ACA, the Senate Finance committee gave all sorts of concessions to the Rs in the minority to try and get it passed and after doing so got nary a vote. Or the difference in how a SCOTUS vacancy was treated when Scalia passed vs. RBG, or the holding up of judicial nominees to district and circuit courts during the Obama years.
I guess my point is that hyperbole and a resistance to compromise transcends party.
We are engaged in tit-for-tat governance. The only thing important to House or Senate majority is to investigate the other side.
The last guy who tried to reach across the aisle was W. He got savaged..
New Dems Coalition bipartisan efforts - page 1 of 10.
Search | New Democrat Coalition
The Official Site For The New Democrat Coalition
newdemocratcoalition.house.gov
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anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa
Guest
They should. Fetterman is a throwback Democrat that moderates will flock to and Oz is a Trumpian charlatan. A dollar spent on Oz is a wasted dollar.
Well, what about Walker? Or is that one close enough they just let it go?
Also Greiten's dumb ass ad he ran a month or so ago has tanked his poll numbers. What an idiot.
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anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa
Guest
Well, what about Walker? Or is that one close enough they just let it go?
I don’t know what to make of Walker.
I don't know why you're using hypothetical 2024 POTUS polls (where no one has even announced candidacy) to somehow point towards the 2022 midterms? Your own Rasmussen poll shows that even though Trump would (hypothetically) beat Biden by 46-40, the SAME poll only shows generic Pubs with a 5 pt lead. And not only is Rasmussen an outlier among July polls, but it also represents a -5 net for the GOP in basically the last month from their own July +10...
None of those are positives for GOP candidates, because the same polls showing Biden's approval level in the 30s, does NOT show huge GOP leads in the generic. That means people in the same polls are giving Biden low marks, AND still answering that they prefer the Dem for Congress in 2022.
And it's hilarious for you and snarl to post nonsense about the unreliability of SUMMER polls, when YOU in particular have been posting nonsense and running your mouth about the polls for the past 6 mos. So they're "unreliable" in July/Aug, but when you were posting them in Jan, THAT was an example of "reliable polls"? When it comes to political savy, you appear to be a clown...
As to the Senate, I think + 3 Dems is very likely. McConnell is worried, unless you believe that a NYT reporter just went on National Tv and made a false claim, which I don't see Mitch refuting... I think that the GOP had a great shot at picking up 1 or 2 seats prior to Roe, even nominating idiots like OZ, Walker and Vance. But (imho) Roe will be enough of a factor to secure the 2 Dem seats in NV and NH that the Pubs might otherwise win.
I know you won't agree with the analysis in this video, but look at the map and notice all the Red vs Blue seats that will be decided in 2022. There just aren't many places where the GOP had a chance to begin with, and even if they somehow were to win Ohio, it's a preservation- not a pick up...
I also think that WI and (depending on the GOP nominee) MO could be a lot closer than folks realize...
Fyi, Vance will win by 10 points easy. Walker will win GA. Oz could easily lose.
I’m not sure how much this shift will hurt Dems or help Pubs on a national scale. As Twenty pointed out, you lose ground with one demographic but gain ground with another.
The DNC has been frustrated with the lack of turnout by non Cuban Hispanics for quite a while. They don’t vote even with major registration drives. I know some of it is distrust in the system (deportation). I wish they did vote in larger numbers, whether for Dems or Pubs.
The DNC has been frustrated with the lack of turnout by non Cuban Hispanics for quite a while. They don’t vote even with major registration drives. I know some of it is distrust in the system (deportation). I wish they did vote in larger numbers, whether for Dems or Pubs.
Why would deportation be a concern? We're talking voting. That means citizens.
Another reason the RNC is upset with OZ is that after winning the Primary he went on a vacation to FL and even Ireland...
Oz’s Great Escape
Republican Party insiders are increasingly frustrated with what they perceive as a certain laissez-faire attitude from the poorly-polling G.O.P. Senate candidate, who has spent nearly as much time on vacation as on the campaign trail.
puck.news
who funds the DNC?
answer, Wall St and big money who also fund the RNC.
and own ALL corporate media, including MSNBC.
Dems, pro working class Dems anyway, are faced with the reality that those in control of their own party, and said party's corporate media, all want Pubs to win more than they want Dems to win.
they only fund the DNC and DNC CORPORATE media, to hedge their bets and control who Dem primary winners are, and control the DNC agenda.
reality is, the national DNC, and NBC, are both false flag operations. (DUH)!
on a side note, Latinos are VERY pro working class, and were very pro Bernie.
they saw what the DNC and their media did in both 2016 and 2020.
Latinos' choice, is which party is against them more.
which they would be total idiots not to see that Pubs still are by far.
but then X percent of any race or nationality, ARE total idiots.
That's incredibly false. Did you just pull that from your ass?
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