Season midpoint Bracketology

[Chicago-bound Hoosier]

According to this USA today article, we don't need to be concerned about being 'on the bubble'. There is no IU basketball in this article...anywhere. Sad that you don't see IU mentioned once...even in that paragraph about two 'big' programs having tougher-than-expected seasons.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...mtDRTUCez7sBWjqUUg_aem_5xBeRYQ00Ju9HkUnkxgElQ

 

[Hank Reardon]

Lunardi has us in the First Four Out as of this morning.

 

[ams66]

I just don't see it happening. We will probably by random luck win a few more games but we cannot seem to do anything consistently well. I wonder if we will be the highest paid team not in the tournament.

 

[IUNorth]

Lunardi has us in the First Four Out as of this morning.

Before the NW loss, we were "in"...which really surprised me.

If we finish .500 in conference, we'll have a very good chance at getting in. That would imply a good amount of Quad 1 wins, likely no Quad 3 or 4 losses...and the back end of our B10 schedule, if we win as many as we lose...will dramatically help our metrics.

 

[Hank Reardon]

Before the NW loss, we were "in"...which really surprised me.

If we finish .500 in conference, we'll have a very good chance at getting in. That would imply a good amount of Quad 1 wins, likely no Quad 3 or 4 losses...and the back end of our B10 schedule, if we win as many as we lose...will dramatically help our metrics.

I'm sure we'll be back "in" if we beat Maryland on Sunday. (The UI win was Maryland's first B10 road win.) We'll need to win some games for sure, but we're not as far away from the tourney as many people think.

 

[Chicago-bound Hoosier]

really need to win this MD game over the weekend. The month of Feb brings a very difficult schedule. Maybe pull off a home win vs UM but we have several very tough road games in places where we typically struggle.

Net has us at 65 and kenpom at 60. Borderline bubble at best depending on how the conference tourneys/auto-bids and conf tourney upsets played out. Feel much safer sitting somewhere in the 40s.

 

[Cavanagh]

According to this USA today article, we don't need to be concerned about being 'on the bubble'. There is no IU basketball in this article...anywhere. Sad that you don't see IU mentioned once...even in that paragraph about two 'big' programs having tougher-than-expected seasons.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...mtDRTUCez7sBWjqUUg_aem_5xBeRYQ00Ju9HkUnkxgElQ

here is the kick in the nuts:

Two big-name teams are absent from our bracketology.

One is North Carolina, which slipped to 12-8 overall after Tuesday night’s loss at Wake Forest. The Tar Heels are a pitiful 1-7 in Quad 1 games. The second is Arkansas

 

[Chicago-bound Hoosier]

here is the kick in the nuts:

Two big-name teams are absent from our bracketology.

One is North Carolina, which slipped to 12-8 overall after Tuesday night’s loss at Wake Forest. The Tar Heels are a pitiful 1-7 in Quad 1 games. The second is Arkansas

yeah that's what really stung...not that we aren't mentioned as being on the bubble, just off the bubble, anywhere orbiting near the bubble. We're nowhere in this article, even in the "Big name programs absent from our bracketology" section. The writer didn't even feel IU was worthy of being mentioned with UNC and Calipari/Arkansas.

 

[.Gerdis]

The writer didn't even feel IU was worthy of being mentioned with UNC and Calipari/Arkansas.

The “writer”. Does anyone?

 

[mushroomgod_1]

really need to win this MD game over the weekend. The month of Feb brings a very difficult schedule. Maybe pull off a home win vs UM but we have several very tough road games in places where we typically struggle.

Net has us at 65 and kenpom at 60. Borderline bubble at best depending on how the conference tourneys/auto-bids and conf tourney upsets played out. Feel much safer sitting somewhere in the 40s.

What BT record must we have, in your opinion, to get us in? Because it looks to me like 4 sure losses, 1 probable loss, 3 probable wins, and 3 toss-ups:

--MD....toss-up?
--at Pur...L
--at WIS....L
--MICH.....toss-up?
--at MSU....L
--UCLA....toss-up?
--PUR......probable L
--PSU....probable W
--at WASH....probable W
--at ORE....L
--OSU...probable W

Giving us the 3 probable wins and 2/3 toss-ups gets us to 10-10. If we win 2 in the BT tourney (unlikely), does that get us in the NCAA Tourney?

 

[mushroomgod_1]

According to this USA today article, we don't need to be concerned about being 'on the bubble'. There is no IU basketball in this article...anywhere. Sad that you don't see IU mentioned once...even in that paragraph about two 'big' programs having tougher-than-expected seasons.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...mtDRTUCez7sBWjqUUg_aem_5xBeRYQ00Ju9HkUnkxgElQ

I looked to see if there was a scenario where we finish 16th and miss the BT tourney altogether......that's very unlikely as Minnesota & Washington are pretty sure to be 2/3 left out, and we're likely to finish ahead of Rutgers, Nebraska & Iowa.. Looks like we'd have to go 1-10 to have much chance of that.

 

[hookyIU1990]

A game over .500 in Feb would put us in. I also read something saying that our remaining conf schedule is the most difficult of anyone else, after having the easiest conf schedule of anyone else to start.

 

[Chicago-bound Hoosier]

What BT record must we have, in your opinion, to get us in? Because it looks to me like 4 sure losses, 1 probable loss, 3 probable wins, and 3 toss-ups:

--MD....toss-up?
--at Pur...L
--at WIS....L
--MICH.....toss-up?
--at MSU....L
--UCLA....toss-up?
--PUR......probable L
--PSU....probable W
--at WASH....probable W
--at ORE....L
--OSU...probable W

Giving us the 3 probable wins and 2/3 toss-ups gets us to 10-10. If we win 2 in the BT tourney (unlikely), does that get us in the NCAA Tourney?

in the past, it's been very difficult to get into the big tourney with a losing conf record, so I say 10-10 is an absolute necessity. Ending 9-11 and making it to Saturday in the B1G tourney would also be close. So many quad 1 games remain, so it's possible.
The NW loss was the start of a very difficult 8 game stretch (ending with the 2nd Purdue game). Losing this weekend at home to MD could be devastating, with the following 2 games in Mackey and Kohl. Have to avoid a 4-5 game losing streak. If that happens, every game comes 'must wins' after that.

 

[IUNorth]

What BT record must we have, in your opinion, to get us in? Because it looks to me like 4 sure losses, 1 probable loss, 3 probable wins, and 3 toss-ups:

--MD....toss-up?
--at Pur...L
--at WIS....L
--MICH.....toss-up?
--at MSU....L
--UCLA....toss-up?
--PUR......probable L
--PSU....probable W
--at WASH....probable W
--at ORE....L
--OSU...probable W

Giving us the 3 probable wins and 2/3 toss-ups gets us to 10-10. If we win 2 in the BT tourney (unlikely), does that get us in the NCAA Tourney?

10-10 seems like a good target or benchmark, when considering NCAA at large status. Anything above that, with our remaining schedule, and we're in safely. Anything below that, pretty unlikely we'll get in. Finish right at 10-10...probably in, but might depend on who exactly we beat and lost to...and how the B10 tournament goes.

 

[WhyisIUBBcursed]

This is embarrassing for a $6M team. I don’t want to barely make the tourney. Send us and CMW packing for goodness sake